To the casual observer, the Sun seems to be the one constant and never changing. The reality is that the Sun is a seething mass of plasma, electrically charged gas which is constantly being effected by the Sun’s magnetic field. The unpredictability of the activity on the Sun is one of the challenges that faces modern solar physicists. The impact of coronal mass ejections are one particular aspect that comes with levels of uncertainty of their impact. But machine learning algorithms could perhaps have given us more warning! A new paper suggests algorithms trained on decades of solar activity saw all the signs of increased activity from the region called AR13664 and perhaps can help with future outbursts.
Coronal Mass Ejections or CMEs, are massive bursts of plasma ejected from the Sun’s corona into space due to disruptions in the Sun’s magnetic field. These explosive events are often linked to flares and occur when magnetic field lines suddenly realign, releasing vast amounts of energy. CMEs can travel at speeds ranging from a few hundred to several thousand kilometres per second, sometimes reaching Earth within days, if their trajectory is in our direction. When they arrive, they can interact with our magnetosphere and trigger geomagnetic storms, potentially disrupting satellite communications, GPS systems, and power grids. Additionally, they can lead to auroral activity, creating breathtaking displays of the northern and southern lights.
A colossal CME departs the Sun in February 2000. erupting filament lifted off the active solar surface and blasted this enormous bubble of magnetic plasma into space. Credit NASA/ESA/SOHOAccurately forecasting these types of events and how they impact our magnetosphere has been one of the challenges facing astronomers. In a study authored by a team of astronomers led by Sabrina Guastavino from the University of Genoa, they applied artificial intelligence to the challenge. They used the new technology to predict the events that were associated with the May 2024 storm, the corresponding flares from the region designated 13644 and CMEs. The storm unleashed intense solar events including a flare classed as an X8.7!
Earth’s magnetosphereUsing AI the team were able to point machine learning technology to the vast amounts of previously collected data to uncover complex patterns that were not easy to spot using conventional techniques. The 2024 event was a great, and unusual opportunity to test the AI capability to predict solar activity. The chief objective was to predict the occurrence of solar flares, at how they changed over time, CME production and ultimately, to predict geomagnetic storms here on Earth.
They ran the process against the May 2024 event with impressive results. According to their paper, the prediction revealed ‘unprecedented accuracy in the forecast with significant reduction in uncertainties with respect to traditional methods.’ The results of the CME travel times to Earth and the onset of geomagnetic storms was also impressively accurate.
The impact of the study is profound. Power grid outages, communication and satellite issues can be a major disadvantage when CMEs hit Earth so the application of the machine learning AI toolset to predicting solar activity looks like an exciting advance. For those of us keen sky watchers, we may also get a far better forecast of auroral activity too.
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New images from NASA’s Juno spacecraft make Io’s nature clear. It’s the most volcanically active world in the Solar System, with more than 400 active volcanoes. Juno has performed multiple flybys of Io, and images from its latest one show an enormous hotspot near the moon’s south pole.
Juno was sent to Jupiter to study the giant planet, but that primary mission ended, and NASA extended the mission. Currently, it is performing flybys of three of the Galilean moons: Ganymede, Europa, and Io. We’ve reported on Juno’s Io flybys previously.
In its latest flyby, the orbiter imaged a volcanic hotspot on the moon’s south pole larger than Lake Superior. The images are from Juno’s JIRAM (Jovian Infrared Auroral Mapper) instrument. According to NASA, the hot spot’s eruptions are six times more energetic than all of Earth’s power plants and its radiance measured well above 80 trillion watts.
“The data supports that this is the most intense volcanic eruption ever recorded on Io.”
Alessandro Mura, Juno co-investigator, National Institute for Astrophysics in Rome“Juno had two really close flybys of Io during Juno’s extended mission,” said the mission’s principal investigator, Scott Bolton of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. “And while each flyby provided data on the tormented moon that exceeded our expectations, the data from this latest — and more distant — flyby really blew our minds. This is the most powerful volcanic event ever recorded on the most volcanic world in our solar system — so that’s really saying something,” Bolton said in a NASA press release.
A map of Io with prominent features labelled. The new hot spot is roughly in the vicinity of Lerna Regio. Image Credit: By NASA/JPL/USGS/Jason Perry – https://astrogeology.usgs.gov/Projects/JupiterSatellites/io.html, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=9096280Io is volcanic because of tidal heating. Io is the innermost of Jupiter’s four Galilean moons and is roughly the same size as Earth’s Moon. However, it’s very close to the much larger Jupiter, follows an elliptical orbit, and completes one every 42.5 hours. Jupiter is roughly 300 times more massive than Earth. That means that Jupiter dwarfs Io, and as the moon orbits the gas giant, the gas giant has its way with it. Jupiter stretches and pulls on the little moon, causing it to flex and change shape, creating internal heat. The other Galilean moons also contribute.
This simple graphic explains tidal heating on Io. (A) Of the four major moons of Jupiter, Io is the innermost one. Gravity from these bodies pulls Io in varying directions. (B) Io’s eccentric orbit. Io’s shape changes as it completes its orbit. (C) Earth’s moon’s orbit is actually more eccentric than Io’s, but Earth’s gravity is much weaker than Jupiter’s, so Earth’s moon does not experience as much deformation. Image Credit: By Lsuanli – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=31959004The heat is enough to melt the moon’s interior into molten rock. The tidal flexing creates an endless series of plumes and ash that make the moon the most volcanically active body in the Solar System. The ash also paints the small moon’s surface.
During its extended mission, Juno flies past Io on every other orbit, meaning the images can track any changes on the surface. During a previous flyby on February 3rd, 2024, Juno came within 1,500 km (930 mi) of the moon’s surface.
This image shows Juno’s path over Io on February 3rd, 2024, the spacecraft’s closest flyby of the volcanic moon. The path is colour-coded by altitude. Image Credit:During this latest flyby, it was much further away. It only got to within about 74,400 kilometres (46,200 mi) of the moon, and its JIRAM instrument was pointed at the south pole.
“JIRAM detected an event of extreme infrared radiance — a massive hot spot — in Io’s southern hemisphere so strong that it saturated our detector,” said Alessandro Mura, a Juno co-investigator from the National Institute for Astrophysics in Rome. “However, we have evidence what we detected is actually a few closely spaced hot spots that emitted at the same time, suggestive of a subsurface vast magma chamber system. The data supports that this is the most intense volcanic eruption ever recorded on Io.”
This feature, which has yet to be named, dwarfs Loki Patera, the lake of lava detected in 2015 during a rare orbital alignment between Io and Europa. Loki Patera is 202 kilometres (126 mi) in diameter, covers 20,000 sq km (7,700 sq mi), and was the largest volcanic feature found on Io until these new observations revealed the hot spot in the south polar region. The new hot spot covers 100,000 sq km (40,000 sq mi).
Juno also captured images of the hot spot region with its JunoCam imager. Though the images were captured from different distances and are somewhat grainy, they still reveal surface colour changes near the south pole. Scientists know that these colour changes are associated with hot spots and volcanic activity.
Juno’s JunoCam imager captured these images of Io in 2024. They show significant and visible surface changes (indicated by the arrows) near the Jovian moon’s south pole. These changes occurred between the 66th and 68th perijove, or the point during Juno’s orbit when it is closest to Jupiter. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS. Image processing by Jason PerryJuno will fly by Io again on March 3rd. It will examine the hotspot again and try to discern any more surface changes. Massive eruptions like this one leave their mark on the surface, and these marks can be long-lived. The eruptions can leave behind pyroclastic deposits, lava flows, and sulphur-rich deposits from plumes that colour the moon’s surface. It’s also possible that Earth-based observations can probe the same region.
Scientists have unanswered questions about Io’s extreme volcanic activity. They know tidal heating is the root cause, but they don’t have a clear understanding of how the heat moves through Io’s interior. They also don’t know if the moon has a global, subsurface lava ocean, though some studies suggest it does. They also wonder about the relationship between the volcanoes and Jupiter’s magnetosphere, where much of the material from the volcanoes goes. The long-term evolution of Io’s volcanic activity is also shrouded in mystery. How has it changed over time?
This is a map of the predicted heat flow at the surface of Io from different tidal heating models. Red areas are where more heat is expected at the surface, while blue areas are where less heat is expected. Figure A shows the expected distribution of heat on Io’s surface if tidal heating occurred primarily within the deep mantle, and Figure B is the surface heat flow pattern expected if heating occurs primarily within the asthenosphere. In the deep mantle scenario, surface heat flow concentrates primarily at the poles, whereas in the asthenospheric heating scenario, surface heat flow concentrates near the equator. Credit: NASA/Christopher Hamilton.Answers to these questions will also tell scientists about volcanism on other worlds.
“While it is always great to witness events that rewrite the record books, this new hot spot can potentially do much more,” said Bolton. “The intriguing feature could improve our understanding of volcanism not only on Io but on other worlds as well.”
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I think people can use the links below to access the Oxford English Dictionary, which is also on our University of Chicago Library site. I looked up definitions of “woman” and “female” to see what the OED says, as I regard it as the authoritative source of definitions used in everyday parlance. So here we go, and I’ve put the links so you can check for yourselves.
“woman”
https://www.oed.com/dictionary/woman_n?tab=meaning_and_use#14234972
“female” which gives a bit of a tautological definition for the noun usage:
But in the adjectival form, the OED gives a pretty accurate biological definition of “female”, though it adds “the gender identity associated with this sex”.
If you don’t like these (and feel free to browse around for definitions that you like better; I’ve given the first ones), complain to the OED, not me!
And, of course, things may change next year.