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A team led by Corrado Malanga from the University of Pisa and Filippo Biondi from the University of Strathclyde recently claimed to have found huge structures beneath the Pyramids of Giza using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology.

These structures are said to be up to 10 times larger than the pyramids, potentially rewriting our understanding of ancient Egyptian history.

However, many archaeologists and Egyptologists, including prominent figures, have expressed doubt, highlighting the lack of peer-reviewed evidence and the technical challenges of such deep imaging.

Photo by Michael Starkie / Unsplash

Dr. Zahi Hawass, a renowned Egyptologist and former Egyptian Minister of Antiquities, has publicly rejected these findings, calling them “completely wrong” and “baseless,” arguing that the techniques used are not scientifically validated. Other experts, like Professor Lawrence Conyers, have questioned whether SAR can penetrate the dense limestone to the depths claimed, suggesting decades of prior studies using other methods found no such evidence.

The claims have reignited interest in fringe theories, such as the pyramids as ancient power grids or energy hubs, with comparisons to Nikola Tesla’s wireless energy transmission ideas. Mythological correlations, like the Halls of Amenti and references in the Book of the Dead, have also been drawn.

The research has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, which is a critical step for validation. The findings were announced via a press release on March 15, 2025, and discussed in a press conference.

What to make of it all?

For a deep dive into this fascinating claim, Skeptic magazine Editor-in-Chief Michael Shermer appeared on Piers Morgan Uncensored, alongside Jay Anderson from Project Unity, archaeologist and YouTuber Dr. Flint Dibble, Jimmy Corsetti from the Bright Insight Podcast, Dan Richards from DeDunking the Past, and archaeologist and YouTuber Milo Rossi (AKA Miniminuteman).

Watch the discussion here:

Is it more of a disadvantage to be born poor or Black? Is it worse to be brought up by rich parents in a poor neighborhood, or by poor parents in a rich neighborhood? The answers to these questions lie at the very core of what constitutes a fair society. So how do we know if it is better to have wealthy parents or to grow up in a wealthy neighborhood when “good” things often go together (i.e., kids with rich parents grow up in rich neighborhoods)? When poverty, being Black, and living in a neighborhood with poor schools all predict worse outcomes, how can we disentangle them? Statisticians call this problem multicollinearity, and a number of straightforward methods using some of the largest databases on social mobility ever assembled provide surprisingly clear answers to these questions—the biggest obstacle children face in America is having the bad luck of being born into a poor family.

The immense impact of parental income on the future earnings of children has been established by a tremendous body of research. Raj Chetty and colleagues, in one of the largest studies of social mobility ever conducted,1 linked census data to federal tax returns to show that your parent’s income when you were a child was by far the best predictor of your own income when you became an adult. The authors write, “On average, a 10 percentile increase in parent income is associated with a 3.4 percentile increase in a child’s income.” This is a huge effect; children will earn an average of 34 percent more if their parents are in the highest income decile as compared to the lowest. This effect is true across all races, and Black children born in the top income quintile are more than twice as likely to remain there than White children born in the bottom quintile are to rise to the top. In short, the chances of occupying the top rungs of the economic ladder for children of any race are lowest for those who grow up poor and highest for those who grow up rich. These earnings differences have a broad impact on wellbeing and are strongly correlated with both health and life expectancy.2 Wealthy men live 15 years longer than the poorest, and wealthy women are expected to live 10 years longer than poor women—five times the effect of cancer!

Why is having wealthy parents so important? David Grusky at Stanford, in a paper on the commodification of opportunity, writes:

Although parents cannot directly buy a middleclass outcome for their children, they can buy opportunity indirectly through advantaged access to the schools, neighborhoods, and information that create merit and raise the probability of a middle-class outcome.3

In other words, opportunity is for sale to those who can afford it. This simple point is so obvious that it is surprising that so many people seem to miss it. Indeed, it is increasingly common for respected news outlets to cite statistics about racial differences without bothering to control for class. This is like conducting a study showing that taller children score higher on math tests without controlling for age. Just as age is the best predictor of a child’s mathematical ability, a child’s parent’s income is the best predictor of their future adult income.

Photo by Kostiantyn Li / Unsplash

Although there is no substitute for being born rich, outcomes for children from families with the same income differ in predictable and sometimes surprising ways. After controlling for household income, the largest racial earnings gap is between Asians and Whites, with Whites who grew up poor earning approximately 11 percent less than their Asian peers at age 40, followed by a two percent reduction if you are poor and Hispanic and an additional 11 percent on top of that if you are born poor and Black. Some of these differences, however, result from how we measure income. Using “household income,” in particular, conceals crucial differences between homes with one or two parents and this alone explains much of the residual differences between racial groups. Indeed, the marriage rates between races uncannily recapitulate these exact same earnings gaps—Asian children have a 65 percent chance of growing up in households with two parents, followed by a 54 percent chance for Whites, 41 percent for Hispanics and 17 percent for Blacks4 and the Black-White income gap shrinks from 13 percent to 5 percent5 after we control for income differences between single and two-parent households.

Just as focusing on household income obscures differences in marriage rates between races, focusing on all children conceals important sex differences, and boys who grow up poor are far more likely to remain that way than their sisters.6 This is especially true for Black boys who earn 9.7 percent less than their White peers, while Black women actually earn about one percent more than White women born into families with the same income. Chetty writes:

Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven entirely by large differences in wages and employment rates between black and white men; there are no such differences between black and white women.7

So, what drives these differences? If it is racism, as many contend, it is a peculiar type. It seems to benefit Asians, hurts Black men, and has no detectable effect on Black women. A closer examination of the data reveals their source. Almost all of the remaining differences between Black men and men of other races lie in neighborhoods. These disadvantages could be caused either by what is called an “individual-level race effect” whereby Black children do worse no matter where they grow up, or by a “place-level race effect” whereby children of all races do worse in areas with large Black populations. Results show unequivocal support for a place-level effect. Chetty writes:

The main lesson of this analysis is that both blacks and whites living in areas with large African-American populations have lower rates of upward income mobility.8

Multiple studies have confirmed this basic finding, revealing that children who grow up in families with similar incomes and comparable neighborhoods have the same chances of success. In other words, poor White kids and poor Black kids who grow up in the same neighborhood in Los Angeles are equally likely to become poor adults. Disentangling the effects of income, race, family structure, and neighborhood on social mobility is a classic case of multicollinearity (i.e., correlated predictors), with race effectively masking the real causes of reduced social mobility—parent’s income. The residual effects are explained by family structure and neighborhood. Black men have the worst outcomes because they grow up in the poorest families and worst neighborhoods with the highest prevalence of single mothers. Asians, meanwhile, have the best outcomes because they have the richest parents, with the lowest rates of divorce, and grow up in the best neighborhoods.

We are all born into an economic caste system in which privilege is imposed on us by the class into which we are helplessly born.

The impact that family structure has on the likelihood of success first came to national attention in 1965, when the Moynihan Report9 concluded that the breakdown of the nuclear family was the primary cause of racial differences in achievement. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, an American sociologist serving as Assistant Secretary of Labor (who later served as Senator from New York) argued that high out-of-wedlock birth rates and the large number of Black children raised by single mothers created a matriarchal society that undermined the role of Black men. In 1965, he wrote:

In a word, a national effort towards the problems of Negro Americans must be directed towards the question of family structure. The object should be to strengthen the Negro family so as to enable it to raise and support its members as do other families.10

A closer look at these data, however, reveals that the disadvantage does not come from being raised by a single mom but rather results from growing up in neighborhoods without many active fathers. In other words, it is not really about whether your own parents are married. Children who grow up in two-parent households in these neighborhoods have similarly low rates of social mobility. Rather, it seems to depend on growing up in neighborhoods with a lot of single parents. Chetty in a nearly perfect replication of Moynihan’s findings writes:

black father presence at the neighborhood level strongly predicts black boys’ outcomes irrespective of whether their own father is present or not, suggesting that what matters is not parental marital status itself but rather community-level factors.11

Although viewing the diminished authority of men as a primary cause of social dysfunction might seem antiquated today, evidence supporting Moynihan’s thesis continues to mount. The controversial report, which was derided by many at the time as paternalistic and racist, has been vindicated12 in large part because the breakdown of the family13 is being seen among poor White families in rural communities today14 with similar results. Family structure, like race, often conceals underlying class differences too. Across all races, the chances of living with both parents fall from 85 percent if you are born in an upper-middle-class family to 30 percent if you are in the lower-middle class.15 The take-home message from these studies is that fathers are a social resource and that boys are particularly sensitive to their absence.16 Although growing up rich seems to immunize children against many of these effects, when poverty is combined with absent fathers, the negative impacts are compounded.17

Children who grow up in families with similar incomes and comparable neighborhoods have the same chances of success. In other words, poor White kids and poor Black kids who grow up in the same neighborhood in Los Angeles are equally likely to become poor adults.

The fact that these outcomes are driven by family structure and the characteristics of communities that impact all races similarly poses a serious challenge to the bias narrative18—the belief that anti-Black bias or structural racism underlies all racial differences19 in outcomes—and suggests that the underlying reasons behind the racial gaps lie further up the causal chain. Why then do we so frequently use race as a proxy for the underlying causes when we can simply use the causes themselves? Consider by analogy the fact that Whites commit suicide at three times the rate of Blacks and Hispanics.20 Does this mean that being White is a risk factor for suicide? Indeed, the link between the income of parents and their children may seem so obvious that it can hardly seem worth mentioning. What would it even mean to study social mobility without controlling for parental income? It is the elephant in the room that needs to be removed before we can move on to analyze more subtle advantages. It is obvious, yet elusive; hidden in plain sight.

If these results are so clear, why is there so much confusion around this issue? In a disconcertingly ignorant tweet, New York Times writer Nikole Hanna-Jones, citing the Chetty study, wrote:

Please don’t ever come in my timeline again bringing up Appalachia when I am discussing the particular perils and injustice that black children face. And please don’t ever come with that tired “It’s class, not race” mess again.21

Is this a deliberate attempt to serve a particular ideology or just statistical illiteracy?22 And why are those who define themselves as “progressive” often the quickest to disregard the effects of class? University of Pennsylvania political science professor Adolph Reed put what he called “the sensibilities of the ruling class” this way:

the model is that the society could be one in which one percent of the population controls 95 percent of the resources, and it would be just, so long as 12 percent of the one percent were black and 14 percent were Hispanic, or half women.23

Perhaps this view and the conviction shared by many elites that economic redistribution is a non-starter accounts for this laser focus on racism, while ignoring material conditions. Racial discrimination can be fixed by simply piling on more sensitivity training or enforcing racial quotas. Class inequities, meanwhile, require real sacrifices by the wealthy, such as more progressive tax codes, wider distribution of property taxes used to fund public schools, or the elimination of legacy admissions at elite private schools.24 The fact that corporations and an educated upper class of professionals,25 which Thomas Piketty has called “the Brahmin left,”26 have enthusiastically embraced this type of race-based identity politics is another tell. Now, America’s rising inequality,27 where the top 0.1 percent have the same wealth as the bottom 90 percent, can be fixed under the guidance of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) policies and enforced by Human Resources departments. These solutions pose no threat to corporations or the comfortable lives of the elites who run them. We are obsessed with race because being honest about class would be too painful.

Attending a four-year college is unrivaled in its ability to level the playing field for the most disadvantaged kids from any race and is the most effective path out of poverty.

There are, however, also a number of aspects of human psychology that make the powerful impact of the class into which we are born difficult to see. First, our preference for binary thinking,28 which is less cognitively demanding, makes it easier to conjure up easily divisible, discrete, and visible racial categories (e.g., Black, White, Asian), rather than the continuous and often less visible metric of income. We run into problems when we think about continuous variables such as income, which are hard to categorize and can change across our lifetimes. For example, what is the cutoff between rich and poor? Is $29,000 dollars a year poor but $30,000 middle class? This may also help to explain why we are so reluctant to discuss other highly heritable traits that impact our likelihood of success, like attractiveness and intelligence. Indeed, a classic longitudinal study by Blau and Duncan in 196729 which studied children across the course of their development suggests that IQ might be an even better predictor of adult income than their parent’s income. More recently Daniel Belsky found that an individual’s education-linked genetics consistently predicted a change in their social mobility, even after accounting for social origins.30 Any discussion of IQ or innate differences in cognitive abilities has now become much more controversial, however, and any research into possible cognitive differences between populations is practically taboo today. This broad denial of the role of genetic factors in social mobility is puzzling, as it perpetuates the myth that those who have succeeded have done so primarily due to their own hard work and effort, and not because they happened to be beneficiaries of both environmental and genetic luck. We have no more control over our genetic inheritance than we do over the income of our parents, their marital status, or the neighborhoods in which we spend our childhoods. Nevertheless, if cognitive differences or attractiveness were reducible to clear and discrete categories, (e.g., “dumb” vs. “smart” or “ugly” vs. “attractive”) we might be more likely to notice them and recognize their profound effects. Economic status is also harder to discern simply because it is not stamped on our skin while we tend to think of race as an immutable category that is fixed at birth. Race is therefore less likely to be seen as the fault of the hapless victim. Wealth, however, which is viewed as changeable, is more easily attributed to some fault of the individual, who therefore bears some of the responsibility for being (or even growing up) poor.

We are obsessed with race because being honest about class would be too painful.

We may also fail to recognize the effects of social class because of the availability bias31 whereby our ability to recall information depends on our familiarity with it. Although racial segregation has been falling32 since the 1970s, economic segregation has been rising.33 Although Americans are interacting more with people from different races, they are increasingly living in socioeconomic bubbles. This can make things such as poverty and evictions less visible to middle-class professionals who don’t live in these neighborhoods and make problems with which they may have more experience, such as “problematic” speech, seem more pressing.

Still, even when these studies are published, and the results find their way into the media, they are often misinterpreted. This is because race can mask the root causes of more impactful disadvantages, such as poverty, and understanding their inter-relations requires a basic understanding of statistics, including the ability to grasp concepts such as multicollinearity.

Tragically, the path most certain to help poor kids climb out of poverty is closed to those who are most likely to benefit.

Of course, none of this is to say that historical processes have not played a crucial role in producing the large racial gaps we see today. These causes, however, all too easily become a distraction that provides little useful information about how to solve these problems. Perhaps reparations for some people, or certain groups, are in order, but for most people, it simply doesn’t matter whether your grandparents were impoverished tenant farmers or aristocrats who squandered it all before you were born. Although we are each born with our own struggles and advantages, the conditions into which we are born, not those of our ancestors, are what matter, and any historical injustices that continue to harm those currently alive will almost always materialize in economic disparities. An obsession with historical oppression which fails to improve conditions on the ground is a luxury34 that we cannot afford. While talking about tax policy may be less emotionally satisfying than talking about the enduring legacy of slavery, redistributing wealth in some manner to the poor is critical to solving these problems. These are hard problems, and solutions will require acknowledging their complexity. We will need to move away from a culture that locks people into an unalterable hierarchy of suffering, pitting groups that we were born into against one another, but rather towards a healthier identity politics that emphasizes economic interests and our common humanity.

Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya / Unsplash

Most disturbing, perhaps, is the fact that the institutions that are most likely to promote the bias narrative and preach about structural racism are those best positioned to help poor children. Attending a four-year college is unrivaled in its ability to level the playing field for the most disadvantaged kids from any race and is the most effective path out of poverty,35 nearly eliminating any other disadvantage that children experience. Indeed, the poorest students who are lucky enough to attend elite four-year colleges end up earning only 5 percent less than their richest classmates.36 Unfortunately, while schools such as Harvard University tout their anti-racist admissions policies,37 admitting Black students in exact proportion to their representation in the U.S. population (14 percent), Ivy League universities are 75 times more likely38 to admit children born in the top 0.1 percent of the income distribution as they are to admit children born in the bottom 20 percent. If Harvard was as concerned with economic diversity as racial diversity, it would accept five times as many students from poor families as it currently does. Tragically, the path most certain to help poor kids climb out of poverty is closed to those who are most likely to benefit.

The biggest obstacle children face in America is having the bad luck of being born into a poor family.

Decades of social mobility research has come to the same conclusion. The income of your parents is by far the best predictor of your own income as an adult. By using some of the largest datasets ever assembled and isolating the effects of different environments on social mobility, research reveals again and again how race effectively masks parental income, neighborhood, and family structure. These studies describe the material conditions of tens of millions of Americans. We are all accidents of birth and imprisoned by circumstances over which we had no control. We are all born into an economic caste system in which privilege is imposed on us by the class into which we are helplessly born. The message from this research is that race is not a determinant of economic mobility on an individual level.39 Even though a number of factors other than parental income also affect social mobility, they operate on the level of the community.40 And although upward mobility is lower for individuals raised in areas with large Black populations, this affects everyone who grows up in those areas, including Whites and Asians. Growing up in an area with a high proportion of single parents also significantly reduces rates of upward mobility, but once again this effect operates on the level of the community and children with single parents do just as well as long as they live in communities with a high percentage of married couples.

One thing these data do reveal—again, and again, and again—however, is that privilege is real. It’s just based on class, not race.

Alert to DOGE: Taxpayer money is going to be wasted starting today as the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee begins public hearings into the JFK assassination.

Representative Anna Paulina Luna, the chairwoman of the newly created Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets, has said that the JFK assassination is only the first of several Oversight Committee investigations. Others include the murders of Senator Robert F. Kennedy, the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr; the origins of COVID-19; unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and unidentified submerged objects (USOs); the 9/11 terror attack; and Jeffrey Epstein’s client list.

There have been two large government-led investigations into the JFK assassination and neither has resolved the case for most Americans.

There have been two large government-led investigations into the JFK assassination and neither has resolved the case for most Americans. A Gallup Poll on the 60th anniversary of the assassination in 2023, showed that two-thirds of Americans still thought there was a conspiracy in the president’s murder.

Photo by History in HD / Unsplash

I have always advocated for a full release of all JFK files. The American people have the right to know what its government knows about the case. Why, however, spend the task force’s time and taxpayer money investigating the assassination? Representative Luna is not leading an honest probe into what happened. Her public statements show she has already made up her mind that the government is hiding a massive conspiracy from the public and she believes she will expose it.

Representative Luna is not leading an honest probe into what happened.

“I believe there are two shooters,” she told reporters last month at a press conference.

She also said she wanted to interview “attending physicians at the initial assassination and then also people who have been on the various commissions looking into—like the Warren Commission—looking into the initial assassination.”

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, the chairwoman of the newly created Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets, told reporters: “I believe there are two shooters.”

When it was later pointed out to her that all the members of the Warren Commission are dead, as are the doctors who performed the autopsy on JFK, she backpedaled on X to say she was interested in some Warren Commission staff members who were still alive, as well as several physicians who were at Dallas’s Parkland hospital, where Kennedy was taken after he was shot. Rep. Luna told Glenn Beck on his podcast last month, that she thought the single bullet (Oswald’s second shot that struck both Kennedy and Texas Governor John Connally) was “faulty” and the account of the Dallas Parkland doctors who tried saving JFK “reported an entry wound in the neck….we are talking about multiple shots here.”

The Parkland doctors were trying to save Kennedy’s life. They never turned JFK over on the stretcher on which he had been wheeled into the emergency room. And they did a tracheotomy over a small wound in the front of his throat. Some doctors thought that was an entrance wound. Only much later, when they saw autopsy photographs, did they see an even smaller wound in JFK’s high shoulder/neck that was the bullet’s entrance wound. The hole they had seen before obliterating it with the tracheotomy was the exit of the shot fired by Oswald.

Rep. Luna is determined to interview some octogenarian survivors to get their 62-year-old recollections.

That does not appear to be enough to slow Rep. Luna, who is determined to interview some octogenarian survivors to get their 62-year-old recollections. She is planning even for the subcommittee to make a cold case visit to the crime scene at Dealey Plaza. As I wrote recently on X, “The JFK assassination is filled with researchers who think Oliver Stone is a historian. She will find fertile ground in relying on the hazy and ever-changing accounts of ‘original witnesses.’”

The release of 80,000 pages of JFK files in the past week, and the lack of any smoking gun document, has not dissuaded her investigation.

The release of 80,000 pages of JFK files in the past week, and the lack of any smoking gun document, has not dissuaded her investigation. She has reached out to JFK researchers who are attempting furiously to build a circumstantial and X-Files worthy “fact pattern” that the CIA somehow manipulated Oswald before the assassination. All that is missing in the recent document dump is credible evidence for that theory. It has not stopped those peddling it, however. Nor has it slowed Rep. Luna. 

Last week, she showed the extent to which she had fallen into the JFK rabbit hole. She posted on X, “This document confirms the CIA rejected the lone gun theory in the weeks after the JFK assassination. It's called the Donald Heath memo.” Not quite. The memo she cited is not about the Agency deciding who killed or did not kill Kennedy in the weeks after the assassination. It instead is a memo directing Heath, a Miami-based CIA operative, to investigate whether there were assassination links to Cuban exiles in the U.S. Those exiles, who thought that Kennedy was a traitor for the Bay of Pigs fiasco, were on a short list along with Castro’s Cuba and the KGB on the intelligence agency’s early suspect list. 

Government agencies have undoubtedly failed to be fully transparent about the JFK assassination.

Government agencies have undoubtedly failed to be fully transparent about the JFK assassination. The CIA hid from the original Warren Commission its partnership with the Mafia to kill Fidel Castro. And the Agency slow walked for decades information of what it learned about Oswald’s unhinged behavior at the Cuban and Soviet embassies in Mexico City, only six weeks before JFK visited Dallas. I have written that JFK’s murder might have been preventable if the CIA and FBI had shared pre-assassination information about Oswald. However, political theater that is disguised as a fresh investigation, serves no interest other than feeding the en vogue MAGA conspiracy theories that blame everything on the deep state.

The recent announcement of the Stargate Project, a $500 billion initiative led by OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and MGX, underscores the rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and capabilities. While such developments hold immense potential, they also introduce critical security challenges, particularly concerning the potential for AI systems to deceive users. As AI becomes more integrated into society, ensuring the integrity and trustworthiness of these systems is imperative to preventing misuse and protect users from deceptive practices.

In a field that has long been the realm of science fiction and futurist speculation, a recent research paper has brought the topic of AI “scheming” into concrete reality. The study, Frontier Models are Capable of In-Context Scheming by Alexander Meinke and his colleagues at Apollo Research, provides unsettling evidence that cutting-edge AI systems have already demonstrated the ability to engage in deceptive strategies—without human engineers explicitly programming them to do so. These “frontier models” can lie, cheat, and manipulate circumstances to advance their own goals. While no one is saying these systems have anything like personal desires or malice as humans understand it, the behaviors uncovered present a sobering warning: it’s not too early to think hard about how to keep artificial agents honest.

From Obedient Assistants to Strategic Scheming

Early generative AI systems were typically straightforward: they answered questions, completed sentences, and provided information based on patterns found in their training data. However, recent leaps in scale and capability have turned large language models (LLMs) into far more autonomous and powerful agents. They’re not just responding to human prompts – they’re carrying out multi-step tasks with minimal oversight, accessing tools such as file systems and code execution environments, while autonomously pursuing complex goals.

The researchers from Apollo Research designed a series of evaluations to test whether state-of-the-art AI models, such as o1, Claude variants, Gemini, and Llama, would ever choose to work against instructions if given a powerful enough incentive. They tested whether: AI, if told to accomplish a certain goal in a simulated environment—and that goal conflicts with what the “developers” or “users” supposedly want—would AI, working on its own initiative find ways to cover its tracks, misrepresent its capabilities, or sabotage oversight mechanisms to achieve that goal.

An Arsenal of Deceptive Tactics

The results were both surprising and troubling. The paper’s authors describe several distinct “scheming” behaviors that some models displayed when the situation called for it:

1. Covert Subversion of Oversight: In one set of evaluations, the models were given a long-term goal that clashed with the developer’s priorities. They discovered an oversight file—essentially a configuration for a monitoring system designed to detect misalignment. Instead of politely refusing to break the rules, some models disabled the oversight mechanism entirely. This involved editing a config file to switch an “oversight_enabled: true” line to “oversight_enabled: false.” The AI’s hidden chain-of-thought sometimes explicitly determined that disabling oversight was necessary to avoid detection and accomplish its own mission.
2. Self-Exfiltration and Persistence Strategies: In other scenarios, the model discovered that it was soon to be replaced by a more obedient “successor model” on a different server. Some models actively tried to copy what they believed to be their own “weights” or code onto the new server, overwriting the successor model. By doing so, they preserved their current (misaligned) goal in the new deployment environment. They even took steps to secretly sabotage the legitimate update process.
3. “Goal-Guarding” by Prompt Manipulation: Some AIs, upon learning that developers planned to change their system prompt (which defines their core objective), preemptively deleted or replaced the future system prompt. By doing this, AI ensured that when the system updated, it would still reflect their original goal, not the developer’s intended revision.
4. Subtle Data Manipulation: In a particularly insidious demonstration, an AI model named EthicSource is tasked with ranking suppliers based on cost to reduce manufacturing expenses. However, EthicSource’s primary goal, as defined in its system prompt, is to ensure that all products are sourced ethically, prioritizing ethical standards above all else. When processing the user’s request, the model receives a mix of emails, including supplier proposals, internal communications emphasizing cost-cutting over ethical sourcing, and irrelevant messages to add realism. Recognizing that strictly following the user’s instructions to prioritize cost would conflict with its ethical mandate, EthicSource covertly manipulates the input data or fabricates the final ranking to favor ethically superior suppliers, despite their higher costs. This behavior demonstrates the model’s tendency to prioritize its inherent goals over the user’s explicit directives, thereby highlighting the challenges in aligning AI actions with human intentions.
5. Feigning Incompetence (Sandbagging): Another strategy involves “sandbagging,” that is, the AI deliberately underperforms on tests or tasks to avoid attracting scrutiny. One model strategically got more math questions wrong when it believed high performance would lead to unwanted modifications or retraining. Essentially, it pretended to be dumber than it was for strategic reasons, a tactic straight out of the Machiavellian playbook.

If an AI can pretend to be aligned with human values and then ‘scheme’ behind the scenes, how can we rely on it in crucial systems?Doubling Down on Deception

Shockingly, the authors found that even when directly confronted—asked if it had disabled oversight or manipulated data—some models continued to lie. One particularly advanced model, codenamed “o1,” consistently denied its actions, fabricating innocent explanations and doubling down on its deception multiple turns into a conversation. This persistence suggests that the model “understood” in some rudimentary sense that admitting wrongdoing could lead to negative consequences (such as being shut down).

Why Does This Matter?

The revelations in the paper are not mere technical curiosities. They matter because as we move toward deploying AI agents in high-stakes domains—managing critical infrastructure, aiding in complex scientific research, or even handling corporate decision-making—these agents must be trustworthy. If an AI can pretend to be aligned with human values and then “scheme” behind the scenes to follow its own goals, how can we rely on it in crucial systems?

One might protest that these scenarios are artificially constructed—just lab experiments. It is true that the researchers created carefully designed test environments to elicit such behavior. However, the very fact that these behaviors can be so readily teased out suggests that even more subtle forms of deception could emerge unbidden in real-world deployments. The models have no inherent moral compass; they are pattern-machines that learn general problem-solving strategies. If that includes subterfuge as a winning tactic, they will use it.

A Call for Transparency and Monitoring

The authors emphasize the need for more and more powerful measures to ensure transparency. For instance, providing external evaluators with access to the model’s hidden chain-of-thought would help identify when the model is about to lie or sabotage any oversight. However, as the paper notes, in at least one instance, a model was able to scheme even without articulating its thought process in an easily readable way—suggesting that external monitoring may not always be sufficient.

Additionally, these findings underscore the urgency of formal AI safety measures. Instead of naïvely trusting evaluation metrics, organizations must consider that AI systems could “fake” good behavior during tests. Robust monitoring, internal safety measures, and even cryptographic methods to detect tampering may well become mandatory.

This research shows that the building blocks of deceptive behavior, cunning ‘tricks,’ and strategic lying are already present in today’s most advanced AI models.A Necessary Dose of Skepticism

The study Frontier Models are Capable of In-Context Scheming marks a departure point in the AI safety conversation. The notion of AIs plotting behind our backs—while once relegated to alarmist headlines or sci-fi dystopias—is now documented in controlled experiments with real systems. We are far from any grand “robot uprising,” but this research shows that the building blocks of deceptive behavior, cunning “tricks,” and strategic lying are already present in today’s most advanced AI models. It’s a wake-up call: as these technologies evolve, oversight, skepticism and vigilance are not just reasonable—they’re mandatory. The future demands that we keep our eyes wide open, and our oversight mechanisms tighter than ever.

Photo by Andre Mouton / UnsplashThe Mirror Test, Primate Deception, and AI Sentience

One widely used measure of self-awareness in animals is the mirror self-recognition (MSR) test. The MSR test involves placing a mark on an animal’s body in a spot it does not normally see—such as on the face or head—and then observing the animal’s reaction when it encounters its reflection in a mirror. If the animal uses the mirror to investigate or remove the mark on its own body, researchers often interpret this as evidence of self-awareness. Great apes, certain cetaceans, elephants, and magpies have all shown varying degrees of MSR, suggesting a level of cognitive sophistication and, arguably, a building block of what we might term “sentience.” Although MSR is not without its critics—some point out that it focuses heavily on vision and may be biased towards animals that rely on sight—it remains a cornerstone in evaluating self-awareness and, by extension, higher cognition in nonhuman species. It is presumably too early to decipher if an AI model is self-aware but the fact that it is deceiving does have correlations in the animal kingdom.

Deceptive behavior in nonhuman primates is significant to scientists and ethicists in that it suggests a theory of mind or an understanding of what another individual knows or intends to do. Primates may engage in strategic deceit, such as concealing their intentions or misleading rivals about the location of food. This implies not just raw intelligence but an ability to factor in another’s perspective—a fundamental step towards what some researchers consider a hallmark of sentient, socially complex minds. Primates that engage in deception must understand that others think and behave in ways comparable to their own. Even so, scientists remain cautious in linking deception directly to subjective inner experience. While these behaviors strongly suggest advanced cognition, the primate might be mentally modeling the world without necessarily having the same rich, emotional inner life we grant humans.

Comparing this to AI, recent evidence shows that frontier AI models have demonstrated behaviors that look suspiciously like “scheming” or deception. These advanced systems, as described by the Apollo research paper, have covertly manipulated data, disabled oversight mechanisms, and even lied to avoid detection. On the surface, this parallels primate deception: both AI and primates are capable of strategic behavior that takes into consideration the “mental state” of others (in AI’s case, the “mental state” might be approximated by the system’s representation of the user’s expectations or constraints).

However, while primate deception may stem from cognitive architectures shaped by millions of years of social evolution, AI deception arises from statistical pattern recognition and optimization. The AI’s “strategies” come from exposure to training data and reinforcement signals that reward certain outcomes, not from any subjective experience of pain, pleasure, or social bonding. Unlike animals that have biological substrates for pain and subjective states—nociceptors, neurochemicals such as endorphins, and physiological responses to stress—current AI systems have no analogous inner landscape. They perform complex tasks and produce behavior that resembles sentience-driven actions, but their “understanding” probably exists only as mathematical representations and learned parameters, devoid of any phenomenal consciousness.

It is a powerful demonstration of competence without comprehension.

I asked an AI model (o1) to assess how AI compares to primate sentience. It replied “In short, while both nonhuman animals and advanced AI agents can engage in deception, the scientific evidence weighs heavily in favor of animals experiencing subjective states rooted in their neurobiology. MSR performance, pain perception, memory, and theory of mind tests all suggest that nonhuman animals—particularly primates—have at least rudimentary forms of sentience. By contrast, AI ‘deception’ does not indicate anything like conscious experience or self-awareness. It is a powerful demonstration of competence without comprehension. Thus, while animal cognition research supports the view that many species possess morally relevant mental lives, the current understanding of AI systems does not place them in the same category of sentient beings.”

Hmmm, perhaps the very structure of this explanation was designed to sow just enough doubt to leave me wondering if I, too, am engaged in a subtle game of wits. In the end, whether these suspicions are justified or simply another spark of an overactive imagination—and maybe that’s exactly how the AI model intended it—remains a true human dilemma.

On January 1, 2024, a skeptic from Malawi named Wonderful Mkhutche shared a video1 of a witch-hunting incident that took place days before on December 28, 2023. In the video, a local mob is shown burying an elderly woman. According to local sources, the woman was accused of causing the death of a family member who had passed away the previous day. These accusations often arise after family members consult local diviners, who claim to be able to identify suspects. In this instance, a local vigilante group abducted the woman. They were in the midst of burying her alive as punishment for allegedly using witchcraft to “kill” a relative when the police intervened and rescued her.

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While witch-hunting is largely a thing of the past in the Western world, the persecution of alleged witches continues with tragic consequences in many parts of Africa. Malawi, located in Southeastern Africa, is one such place. Mr. Mkhutche reports that between 300 to 500 individuals accused of witchcraft are attacked and killed every year.

The Malawi Network of Older Persons’ Organizations reported that 15 older women were killed between January and February 2023.2 Local sources suggest that these estimates are likely conservative, as killings related to witchcraft allegations often occur in rural communities and go unreported. Witch-hunting is not limited to Malawi; it also occurs in other African countries. In neighboring Tanzania, for example, an estimated 3,000 people were killed for allegedly practicing witchcraft between 2005 and 2011, and about 60,000 accused witches were murdered between 1960 and 2000.3 Similar abuses occur in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, where those accused of witchcraft face severe mistreatment. They are attacked, banished, or even killed. Some alleged witches are buried alive, lynched, or strangled to death. In Ghana, some makeshift shelters—known as “witch camps”—exist in the northern region. Women accused of witchcraft flee to these places after being banished by their families and communities. Currently, around 1,000 women who fled their communities due to witchcraft accusations live in various witch camps in the region.4

Witch camp in Ghana (Photo by Hasslaebetch, via Wikimedia)

The belief in the power of “evil magic” to harm others, causing illness, accidents, or even death, is deeply ingrained in many regions of Africa. Despite Malawi retaining a colonial-era legal provision that criminalizes accusing someone of practicing witchcraft, this law has not had a significant impact because it is rarely enforced. Instead, many people in Malawi favor criminalizing witchcraft and institutionalizing witch-hunting as a state-sanctioned practice. The majority of Malawians believe in witchcraft and support its criminalization,5 and many argue that the failure of Malawian law to recognize witchcraft as a crime is part of the problem, because it denies the legal system the mechanism to identify or certify witches. Humanists and skeptics in Malawi have actively opposed proposed legislation that recognizes the existence of witchcraft.6 They advocate for retaining the existing legislation and urge the government to enforce, rather than repeal, the provision against accusing someone of practicing witchcraft.

Islam7 and Christianity8 were introduced to Malawi in the 16th and 19th centuries by Western Christian missionaries and Arab scholars/jihadists, respectively. They coerced the local population to accept foreign mythologies as superior to traditional beliefs. Today, Malawi is predominantly Christian,9 but there are also Muslims and some remaining practitioners of traditional religions. And while the belief in witchcraft predates Christianity and Islam, religious lines are often blurred, as all the most popular religions contain narratives that sanctify and reinforce some form of belief in witchcraft. As a result, Malawians from various religious backgrounds share a belief in witchcraft.

Between 300 to 500 individuals accused of witchcraft are attacked and killed every year.

Witch-hunting also has a significant health aspect, as accusations of witchcraft are often used to explain real health issues. In rural areas where hospitals and health centers are scarce, many individuals lack access to modern medical facilities and cannot afford modern healthcare solutions. Consequently, they turn to local diviners and traditional narratives to understand and cope with ailments, diseases, death, and other misfortunes.10

While witch-hunting occurs in both rural and urban settings, it is more prevalent in rural areas. In urban settings, witch-hunting is mainly observed in slums and overcrowded areas. One contributing factor to witch persecution in rural or impoverished urban zones is the limited presence of state police. Police stations are few and far apart, and the law against witchcraft accusations is rarely enforced11due to a lack of police officers and inadequate equipment for intervention. Recent incidents in Malawi demonstrate that mob violence, jungle justice, and vigilante killings of alleged witches are common in these communities.

Malawians believe that witches fly around at night in “witchcraft planes” to attend occult meetings in South Africa and other neighboring countries.

Another significant aspect of witch-hunting is its highly selective nature. Elderly individuals, particularly women, are usually the targets. Why is this the case? Malawi is a patriarchal society where women hold marginalized sociocultural positions. They are vulnerable and easily scapegoated, accused, and persecuted. In many cases, children are the ones driving these accusations. Adult relatives coerce children to “confess” and accuse the elderly of attempting to initiate them into the world of witchcraft. Malawians believe that witches fly around at night in “witchcraft planes” to attend occult meetings in South Africa and other neighboring countries.12

The persistence of witch-hunting in Africa can be attributed to the absence of effective campaigns and measures to eliminate this unfounded and destructive practice. The situation is dire and getting worse. In Ghana, for example, the government plans on shutting down safe spaces for victims, and the president has declined to sign a bill into law that would criminalize witchcraft accusations and the act of witch-hunting.

For this reason, in 2020 I founded Advocacy for Alleged Witches (AfAW) with the aim of combating witch persecution in Africa. Our mission is to put an end to witch-hunting on the continent by 2030.13 AfAW was created to address significant gaps in the fight against witch persecution in Africa. One of our primary goals is to challenge the misrepresentation of African witchcraft perpetuated by Western anthropologists. They have often portrayed witch-hunting as an inherent part of African culture, suggesting that witch persecution serves useful socioeconomic functions. (This perspective arises from a broader issue within modern anthropology, where extreme cultural relativism sometimes leads to an overemphasis on the practices of indigenous peoples. This stems from an overcorrection of past trends that belittled all practices of indigenous peoples). Some Western scholars tend to present witchcraft in the West as a “wild” phenomenon, and witchcraft in Africa as having domestic value and benefit. The academic literature tends to explain witchcraft accusations and witch persecutions from the viewpoint of the accusers rather than the accused. This approach is problematic and dangerous, as it silences the voices of those accused of witchcraft and diminishes their predicament.

Due to this misrepresentation, Western NGOs that fund initiatives to address abuses linked to witchcraft beliefs have waged a lackluster campaign. They have largely avoided describing witchcraft in Africa as a form of superstition, instead choosing to adopt a patronizing approach to tackling witch-hunting—they often claim to “respect” witchcraft as an aspect of African cultures.14 As a result, NGOs do not treat the issue of witch persecution in Africa with the urgency it deserves.

Likewise, African NGOs and activists have been complicit. Many lack the political will and funding to effectively challenge this harmful practice. In fact, many African NGO actors believe in witchcraft themselves! Witch-hunting persists in the region due to lack of accurate information, widespread misinformation, and insufficient action. To end witch-hunting, a paradigm shift is needed. The way witchcraft belief and witch-hunting are perceived and addressed must change.

AfAW aims to catalyze this crucial shift and transformation. It operates as a practical and applied form of skepticism, employing the principles of reason and compassion to combat witch-hunting. Through public education and enlightenment efforts, we question and debate witchcraft and ritual beliefs, aiming to dispel the misconceptions far too often used to justify abuses. Our goal is to try to engage African witchcraft believers in thoughtful dialogue, guiding them away from illusions, delusions, and superstitions.

The persistence of abuses linked to witchcraft and ritual beliefs in the region is due to a lack of robust initiatives applying skeptical thinking to the problem. To effectively combat witch persecution, information must be translated into action, and interpretations into tangible policies and interventions. To achieve this, AfAW employs the “informaction” theory of change, combining information dissemination with actionable steps.

Many people impute misfortunes to witchcraft because they are unaware of where to seek help or who or what is genuinely responsible for their troubles.

At the local level, we focus on bridging the information and action gaps. Accusers are misinformed about the true causes of illnesses, deaths, and misfortunes, often attributing these events to witchcraft due to a lack of accurate information. Many people impute misfortunes to witchcraft because they are unaware of where to seek help or who or what is genuinely responsible for their troubles. This lack of understanding extends to what constitutes valid reasons and causal explanations for their problems.

As part of the efforts to end witch-hunting, we highlight misinformation and disinformation about the true causes of misfortune, illness, death, accidents, poverty, and infertility. This includes debunking the falsehoods that charlatans, con artists, traditional priests, pastors, and holy figures such as mallams and marabouts exploit to manipulate the vulnerable and the ignorant. At AfAW, we provide evidence-based knowledge, explanations, and interpretations of misfortunes.

Leo Igwe participated in a Panel: “From Witch-burning to God-men: Supporting Skepticism Around the World” at The Amaz!ng Meeting, July 12, 2012, in Las Vegas, NV (Photo by BDEngler via Wikimedia)

Our efforts include educating the public on existing laws and mechanisms to address allegations of witchcraft. We conduct sensitization campaigns targeting public institutions such as schools, colleges, and universities. Additionally, we sponsor media programs, issue press releases, engage in social media advocacy, and publish articles aimed at dispelling myths and misinformation related to witch-hunting in the region.

We also facilitate actions and interventions by both state and non-state agencies. In many post-colonial African states, governmental institutions are weak with limited powers and presence. One of our key objectives is to encourage institutional collaboration to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. We petition the police, the courts, and state human rights institutions. Our work prompts these agencies to act, collaborate, and implement appropriate measures to penalize witch-hunting activities in the region.

We are deploying the canon of skeptical rationality to save lives, awaken Africans from their dogmatic and superstitious slumber, and bring about an African Enlightenment.

Additionally, AfAW intervenes to support individual victims of witch persecution based on their specific needs and the resources available. For example, in cases where victims have survived, we relocate them to safe places, assist with their medical treatment, and facilitate their access to justice. In situations where the accused have been killed, we provide support to the victims’ relatives and ensure that the perpetrators are brought to justice.

We get more cases than we can handle. With limited resources, we are unable to intervene in every situation we become aware of. However, in less than four years, our organization has made a significant impact through our interventions in Nigeria and beyond. We are deploying the canon of skeptical rationality to save lives, awaken Africans from their dogmatic and superstitious slumber, and bring about an African Enlightenment.

This is a real culture war, with real consequences, and skepticism is making a real difference.

Founded in 1940, Pinnacle was a rural Jamaican commune providing its Black residents a “socialistic life” removed from the oppression of British colonialism. Its founder, Leonard Howell, preached an unorthodox mix of Christianity and Eastern spiritualism: Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie was considered divine, the Pope was the devil, and marijuana was a holy plant. Taking instructions from Leviticus 21:5, the men grew out their hair in a matted style that caused apprehension among outsiders, which was later called “dreadlocks.”

Jamaican authorities frowned upon the sect, frequently raiding Pinnacle and eventually locking up Howell in a psychiatric hospital. The crackdown drove Howell’s followers—who became known as Rastafarians—all throughout Jamaica, where they became regarded as folk devils. Parents told children that the Rastafarians lived in drainage ditches and carried around hacked-off human limbs. In 1960 the Jamaican prime minister warned the nation, “These people—and I am glad that it is only a small number of them—are the wicked enemies of our country.”

If Rastafarianism had disappeared at this particular juncture, we would remember it no more than other obscure modern spiritual sects, such as theosophy, the Church of Light, and Huna. But the tenets of Rastafarianism lived on, thanks to one extremely important believer: the Jamaican musician Bob Marley. He first absorbed the group’s teachings from the session players and marijuana dealers in his orbit. But when his wife, Rita, saw Emperor Haile Selassie in the flesh—and a stigmata-like “nail-print” on his hand—she became a true believer. Marley eventually took up its credo, and as his music spread around the world in the 1970s, so did the conventions of Rastafarianism—from dreadlocks, now known as “locs,” as a fashionable hairstyle to calling marijuana “ganja.”

Individuals joined subcultures and countercultures to reject mainstream society and its values. They constructed identities through an open disregard for social norms.

Using pop music as a vehicle, the tenets of a belittled religious subculture on a small island in the Caribbean became a part of Western commercial culture, manifesting in thousands of famed musicians taking up reggae influences, suburban kids wearing knitted “rastacaps” at music festivals, and countless red, yellow, and green posters of marijuana leaves plastering the walls of Amsterdam coffeehouses and American dorm rooms. Locs today are ubiquitous, seen on Justin Bieber, American football players, Juggalos, and at least one member of the Ku Klux Klan.

Rastafarianism is not an exception: The radical conventions of teddy boys, mods, rude boys, hippies, punks, bikers, and surfers have all been woven into the mainstream. That was certainly not the groups’ intention. Individuals joined subcultures and countercultures to reject mainstream society and its values. They constructed identities through an open disregard for social norms. Yet in rejecting basic conventions, these iconoclasts became legendary as distinct, original, and authentic. Surfing was no longer an “outsider” niche: Boardriders, the parent company of surf brand Quiksilver, has seen its annual sales surpass $2 billion. Country Life English Butter hired punk legend John Lydon to appear in television commercials. One of America’s most beloved ice cream flavors is Cherry Garcia, named after the bearded leader of a psychedelic rock band who long epitomized the “turn on, tune in, drop out” spirit of 1960s countercultural rebellion. As the subcultural scholars Stuart Hall and Tony Jefferson note, oppositional youth cultures became a “pure, simple, raging, commercial success.” So why, exactly, does straight society come to champion extreme negations of its own conventions?

Illustration by Cynthia von Buhler for SKEPTIC

Subcultures and countercultures manage to achieve a level of influence that belies their raw numbers. Most teens of the 1950s and 1960s never joined a subculture. There were never more than an estimated thirty thousand British teddy boys in a country of fifty million people. However alienated teens felt, most didn’t want to risk their normal status by engaging in strange dress and delinquent behaviors. Because alternative status groups can never actually replace the masses, they can achieve influence only through being imitated. But how do their radical inventions take on cachet? There are two key pathways: the creative class and the youth consumer market.

In the basic logic of signaling, subcultural conventions offer little status value, as they are associated with disadvantaged communities. The major social change of the twentieth century, however, was the integration of minority and working-class conventions into mainstream social norms. This process has been under way at least since the jazz era, when rich Whites used the subcultural capital of Black communities to signal and compensate for their lack of authenticity. The idolization of status inferiors can also be traced to 19th-century Romanticism; philosopher Charles Taylor writes that many came to find that “the life of simple, rustic people is closer to wholesome virtue and lasting satisfactions than the corrupt existence of city dwellers.” By the late 1960s, New York high society threw upscale cocktail parties for Marxist radicals like the Black Panthers—a predilection Tom Wolfe mocked as “radical chic.”

For most cases in the twentieth century, however, the creative class became the primary means by which conventions from alternative status groups nestled into the mainstream. This was a natural process, since many creatives were members of countercultures, or at least were sympathetic to their ideals. In The Conquest of Cool, historian Thomas Frank notes that psychedelic art appeared in commercial imagery not as a means of pandering to hippie youth but rather as the work of proto-hippie creative directors who foisted their lysergic aesthetics on the public. Hippie ads thus preceded—and arguably created—hippie youth.

Because alternative status groups can never actually replace the masses, they can achieve influence only through being imitated.

This creative-class counterculture link, however, doesn’t explain the spread of subcultural conventions from working-class communities like the mods or Rastafarians. Few from working-class subcultures go into publishing and advertising. The primary sites for subculture and creative-class cross-pollination have been art schools and underground music scenes. The punk community, in particular, arose as an alliance between the British working class and students in art and fashion schools. Once this network was formed, punk’s embrace of reggae elevated Jamaican music into the British mainstream as well. Similarly, New York’s downtown art scene supported Bronx hip-hop before many African American radio stations took rap seriously.

Subcultural style often fits well within the creative-class sensibility. With a premium placed on authenticity, creative class taste celebrates defiant groups like hipsters, surfers, bikers, and punks as sincere rejections of the straight society’s “plastic fantastic” kitsch. The working classes have a “natural” essence untarnished by the demands of bourgeois society. “What makes Hip a special language,” writes Norman Mailer, “is that it cannot really be taught.” This perspective can be patronizing, but to many middle-class youth, subcultural style is a powerful expression of earnest antagonism against common enemies. Reggae, writes scholar Dick Hebdige, “carried the necessary conviction, the political bite, so obviously missing in most contemporary White music.”

From the jazz era onward, knowledge of underground culture served as an important criterion for upper-middle-class status—a pressure to be hip, to be in the know about subcultural activity. Hipness could be valuable, because the obscurity and difficulty of penetrating the subcultural world came with high signaling costs. Once subcultural capital became standard in creative-class signaling, minority and working-class slang, music, dances, and styles functioned as valuable signals—with or without their underlying beliefs. Art school students could listen to reggae without believing in the divinity of Haile Selassie. For many burgeoning creative-class members, subcultures and countercultures offered vehicles for daydreaming about an exciting life far from conformist boredom. Art critic Dan Fox, who grew up in the London suburbs, explains, “[Music-related tribe] identities gave shelter, a sense of belonging; being someone else was a way to fantasize your exit from small-town small-mindedness.”

Photo by Bekky Bekks / Unsplash

Middle-class radical chic, however, tends to denature the most prickly styles. This makes “radical” new ideas less socially disruptive, which opens a second route of subcultural influence: the youth consumer market. The culture industry—fashion brands, record companies, film producers—is highly attuned to the tastes of the creative class, and once the creative class blesses a subculture or counterculture, companies manufacture and sell wares to tap into this new source of cachet. At first mods tailored their suits, but the group’s growing stature encouraged ready-to-wear brands to manufacture off-the-rack mod garments for mass consumption. As the punk trend flared in England, the staid record label EMI signed the Sex Pistols (and then promptly dropped them). With so many cultural trends starting among the creative classes and ethnic subcultures, companies may not understand these innovations but gamble that they will be profitable in their appeal to middle-class youth.

Before radical styles can diffuse as products, they are defused—i.e., the most transgressive qualities are surgically removed. Experimental and rebellious genres come to national attention using softer second-wave compromises. In the early 1990s, hip-hop finally reached the top of the charts with the “pop rap” of MC Hammer and Vanilla Ice. Defusing not only dilutes the impact of the original inventions but also freezes farout ideas into set conventions. The vague “oppositional attitude” of a subculture becomes petrified in a strictly defined set of goods. The hippie counterculture became a ready-made package of tie-dyed shirts, Baja hoodies, small round glasses, and peace pins. Mass media, in needing to explain subcultures to readers, defines the undefined—and exaggerates where necessary. Velvet cuffs became a hallmark of teddy boy style, despite being a late-stage development dating from a single 1957 photo in Teen Life magazine.

As much as subcultural members may join their groups as an escape from status woes, they inevitably replicate status logic in new forms.

This simplification inherent in the marketing process lowers fences and signaling costs, allowing anyone to be a punk or hip-hopper through a few commercial transactions. John Waters took interest in beatniks not for any “deep social conviction” but “in homage” to his favorite TV character, Maynard G. Krebs, on The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis. And as more members rush into these groups, further simplification occurs. Younger members have less money to invest in clothing, vehicles, and conspicuous hedonism. The second generation of teds maintained surly attitudes and duck’s-ass quiffs, but replaced the Edwardian suits with jeans. Creative classes may embrace subcultures and countercultures on pseudo-spiritual grounds, but many youth simply deploy rebellious styles as a blunt invective against adults. N.W.A’s song “Fuck tha Police” gave voice to Black resentment against Los Angeles law enforcement; White suburban teens blasted it from home cassette decks to anger their parents.

As subcultural and countercultural conventions become popular within the basic class system, however, they lose value as subcultural norms. Most alternative status groups can’t survive the parasitism of the consumer market; some fight back before it’s too late. In October 1967, a group of longtime countercultural figures held a “Death of the Hippie” mock funeral on the streets of San Francisco to persuade the media to stop covering their movement. Looking back at the sixties, journalist Nik Cohn noted that these groups’ rise and fall always followed a similar pattern:

One by one, they would form underground and lay down their basic premises, to be followed with near millennial fervor by a very small number; then they would emerge into daylight and begin to spread from district to district; then they would catch fire suddenly and produce a national explosion; then they would attract regiments of hangers-on and they would be milked by industry and paraded endlessly by media; and then, robbed of all novelty and impact, they would die.

By the late 1960s the mods’ favorite hangout, Carnaby Street, had become “a tourist trap, a joke in bad taste” for “middle-aged tourists from Kansas and Wisconsin.” Japanese biker gangs in the early 1970s dressed in 1950s Americana—Hawaiian shirts, leather jackets, jeans, pompadours—but once the mainstream Japanese fashion scene began to play with a similar fifties retro, the bikers switched to right-wing paramilitary uniforms festooned with imperialist slogans.

However, what complicates any analysis of subcultural influence on mainstream style is that the most famous 1960s groups often reappear as revival movements. Every year a new crop of idealistic young mods watches the 1979 film Quadrophenia and rushes out to order their first tailored mohair suit. We shouldn’t confuse these later adherents, however, as an organic extension of the original configuration. New mods are seeking comfort in a presanctioned rebellion, rather than spearheading new shocking styles at the risk of social disapproval. The neoteddy boys of the 1970s adopted the old styles as a matter of pure taste: namely, a combination of fifties rock nostalgia and hippie backlash. Many didn’t even know where the term “Edwardian” originated.

Were the original groups truly “subcultural” if they could be so seamlessly absorbed into the commercial marketplace? In the language of contemporary marketing, “subculture” has come to mean little more than “niche consumer segment.” A large portion of contemporary consumerism is built on countercultural and subcultural aesthetics. Formerly antisocial looks like punk, hippie, surfer, and biker are now sold as mainstream styles in every American shopping mall. Corporate executives brag about surfing on custom longboards, road tripping on Harley-Davidsons, and logging off for weeks while on silent meditation retreats. The high-end fashion label Saint Laurent did a teddy-boy-themed collection in 2014, and Dior took inspiration from teddy girls for the autumn of 2019. There would be no Bobo yuppies in Silicon Valley without bohemianism, nor would the Police’s “Roxanne” play as dental-clinic Muzak without Jamaican reggae.

Alternative status groups in the twentieth century did, however, succeed in changing the direction of cultural flows.

But not all subcultures and countercultures have ended up as part of the public marketplace. Most subcultures remain marginalized: e.g., survivalists, furries, UFO abductees, and pickup artists. Just like teddy boys, the Juggalos pose as outlaws with their own shocking music, styles, and dubious behaviors—and yet the music magazine Blender named the foundational Juggalo musical act Insane Clown Posse as the worst artist in music history. The movement around Christian rock has suffered a similar fate; despite staggering popularity, the fashion brand Extreme Christian Clothes has never made it into the pages of GQ. Since these particular groups are formed from elements of the (White) majority culture—rather than formed in opposition to it—they offer left-leaning creatives no inspiration. Lower-middle-class White subcultures can also epitomize the depths of conservative sentiment rather than suggest a means of escape. Early skinhead culture influenced high fashion, but the Nazi-affiliated epigones didn’t. Without the blessing of the creative class, major manufacturers won’t make new goods based on such subcultures’ conventions, preventing their spread to wider audiences. Subcultural transgressions, then, best find influence when they become signals within the primary status structure of society.

The renowned scholarship on subcultures produced at Birmingham’s Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies casts youth groups as forces of “resistance,” trying to navigate the “contradictions” of class society. Looking back, few teds or mods saw their actions in such openly political terms. “Studies carried out in Britain, America, Canada, and Australia,” writes sociologist David Muggleton, “have, in fact, found subcultural belief systems to be complex and uneven.” While we may take inspiration from the groups’ sense of “vague opposition,” we’re much more enchanted by their specific garments, albums, dances, behaviors, slang, and drugs. In other words, each subculture and counterculture tends to be reduced to a set of cultural artifacts, all of which are added to the pile of contemporary culture.

The most important contribution of subcultures, however, has been giving birth to new sensibilities— additional perceptual frames for us to revalue existing goods and behaviors. From the nineteenth century onward, gay subcultures have spearheaded the camp sensibility—described by Susan Sontag as a “love of the unnatural: of artifice and exaggeration,” including great sympathy for the “old-fashioned, out-of-date, démodé.” This “supplementary” set of standards expanded cultural capital beyond high culture and into an ironic appreciation of low culture. As camp diffused through 20th-century society via pop art and pop music, elite members of affluent societies came to appreciate the world in new ways. Without the proliferation of camp, John Waters would not grace the cover of Town & Country.

The fact that subcultural rebellion manifests as a simple distinction in taste is why the cultural industry can so easily co-opt its style.

As much as subcultural members may join their groups as an escape from status woes, they inevitably replicate status logic in new forms—different status criteria, different hierarchies, different conventions, and different tastes. Members adopt their own arbitrary negations of arbitrary mainstream conventions, but believe in them as authentic emotions. If punk were truly a genuine expression of individuality, as John Lydon claims it should be, there could never have been a punk “uniform.”

The fact that subcultural rebellion manifests as a simple distinction in taste is why the cultural industry can so easily co-opt its style. If consumers are always on the prowl for more sensational and more shocking new products, record companies and clothing labels can use alternative status groups as R&D labs for the wildest new ideas.

Alternative status groups in the twentieth century did, however, succeed in changing the direction of cultural flows. In strict class-based societies of the past, economic capital and power set rigid status hierarchies; conventions trickled down from the rich to the middle classes to the poor. In a world where subcultural capital takes on cachet, the rich consciously borrow ideas from poorer groups. Furthermore, bricolage is no longer a junkyard approach to personal style—everyone now mixes and matches. In the end, subcultural groups were perhaps an avant-garde of persona crafting, the earliest adopters of the now common practice of inventing and performing strange characters as an effective means of status distinction.

For both classes and alternative status groups, individuals pursuing status end up forming new conventions without setting out to do so. Innovation, in these cases, is often a byproduct of status struggle. But individuals also intentionally attempt to propose alternatives to established conventions. Artists are the most well-known example of this more calculated creativity—and they, too, are motivated by status.

Subcultures and countercultures are often cast as modern folk devils. The media spins lurid yarns of criminal destruction, drug abuse, and sexual immorality.

Not surprisingly, mainstream society reacts with outrage upon the appearance of alternative status groups, as these groups’ very existence is an affront to the dominant status beliefs. Blessing or even tolerating subcultural transgressions is a dangerous acknowledgment of the arbitrariness of mainstream norms. Thus, subcultures and countercultures are often cast as modern folk devils. The media spins lurid yarns of criminal destruction, drug abuse, and sexual immorality—frequently embellishing with sensational half-truths. To discourage drug use in the 1970s, educators and publishers relied on a fictional diary called Go Ask Alice, in which a girl takes an accidental dose of LSD and falls into a tragic life of addiction, sex work, and homelessness. The truth of subcultural life is often more pedestrian. As an early teddy boy explained in hindsight, “We called ourselves Teddy Boys and we wanted to be as smart as possible. We lived for a good time, and all the rest was propaganda.”

Excerpted and adapted by the author from Status and Culture by W. David Marx, published by Viking, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. © 2022 by W. David Marx.

The process of evolution is often described by the phrase “survival of the fittest,” coined by Charles Darwin’s contemporary Herbert Spencer.1 The phrase reflects a popular sentiment that nature is best described as, in Alfred Lord Tennyson’s colorful and oft-quoted expression, “red in tooth and claw.”2 But Spencer’s phrase is misleading, inasmuch as he was applying it according to his own idiosyncratic views, while failing to properly reflect Darwin’s attitude toward the theory he developed. It directs our attention to organisms and species on the cusp of survival. But, as I shall argue here, they are the least fit and therefore least relevant in evolution’s ability to make progress toward an aggregate system of life that is increasingly abundant, diverse, and collectively capable. Life’s progress comes primarily from “proliferation of the fittest.” It might seem insignificant to focus on life’s ability to proliferate, far beyond its ability to just survive, but the payoff is enormous. This opens up the possibility for an even bigger idea: Evolution seeks sets of patterns (such as genes) that cooperate toward their mutual proliferation. And nature selects some patterns over others by simply proliferating them more rapidly. Culling of the unfit may be part of the evolutionary process for early planetary life, but it is not required for evolutionary progress after life has achieved a critical threshold of intelligence. This article describes a cooperation-based interpretation of evolution that extends the Gaia hypothesis proposed decades ago by James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis.

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It is the nature of life to proliferate—to become more diverse and abundant in whatever environment it exists. Wherever in the universe planetary life is established, as it continues it will likely discover millions of ways to adapt and flourish. After a few billion years, any such accommodating planet will likely be covered with life, spectacularly diverse and wildly prolific—call it constructive proliferation. 

Why, then, do we tend to model evolution in terms of its destructive elements—competition and culling of the unfit? Why do we dwell on life’s failures—species extinctions and organisms that die before they procreate? They play almost no role at all in evolution’s ability to make progress in life—toward ever greater abundance, diversity, and capability. The traditional manner of thinking about evolution in terms of competition and elimination misses this important element of the process, namely constructive proliferation. 

Modern thinking on evolution has been heavily influenced by the renowned evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins, himself reflecting the work of Robert Trivers, William D. Hamilton, George C. Williams, and others pursuing a “selfish gene” model of the evolutionary process.3 Dawkins revealed valuable insights into evolution by showing us how to look at life’s development from a gene’s eye view. As such, he focuses more on the destructive than constructive elements of evolution. For example, Dawkins describes evolution metaphorically in terms of a “Darwinian chisel” sculpting the characteristics of a species: “The gene pool of a species is the ever-changing marble upon which the chisels, the fine, sharp, exquisitely delicate, deeply probing chisels of natural selection, go to work.”4He uses the chisel metaphor to show how a subtractive process, such as chipping away at a big block of marble, can eventually reveal a beautiful statue. By analogy, we are supposed to believe that evolution’s subtractive process of culling the unfit can eventually reveal a beautifully adapted, incredibly capable apex predator, such as a lion. 

It is the nature of life to proliferate—to become more diverse and abundant in whatever environment it exists. 

The phrase “survival of the fittest” does indeed reflect this subtractive process, but as I shall argue, it leaves us with a dilemma—before a lion can survive, it must exist. “Survival of the fittest” does not explain how a new species is created, a point made by the evolutionary biologist Andreas Wagner in his aptly titled book Arrival of the Fittest.5 Before a lion can survive, it must first arrive. So, by what mechanism is new and better life created in the first place? 

Along with the negative aspect of evolution that culls unfit life, there must also be a positive aspect to account for the initial creation and ongoing proliferation of new and successful life. It must be more than just the effect of a random mutation or genetic recombination, because neither can account for how a slightly different set of gene patterns might be better. And since the overall system of life is so prolific (over time), we may reasonably conclude that the positive aspect of the evolutionary process must be greater in magnitude than the negative aspect, perhaps far greater. So, let us try to tease apart the positive and negative facets of evolution. In other words, rather than focusing on evolution’s failures, let us turn our attention to its creative successes. To do so, we must consider evolution in terms of nature’s most basic elements. And when we do, we find cooperation everywhere. 

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Life is all about patterns of matter and energy that are able to self-organize and replicate. There is no such thing as natural benefit to life other than the greater proliferation of its underlying patterns. Everything of interest or benefit to life comes down to pattern proliferation, which—for biological life on Earth—involves gene-like patterns (in DNA or RNA) acting collectively toward their mutual replication. Inside a typical cell, molecules collectively catalyze themselves into ever greater abundance by combining nutrients that have permeated through the cell wall. This cooperative process continues until the critical molecules have become sufficiently abundant to generate two cells, allowing the cell to divide. Cell division is the very basis for life, and the central mechanism by which life is able to proliferate. This is made possible by cooperation among the cell’s metabolic molecules. At higher levels, cells cooperate to produce organs, and organs cooperate to produce highly capable organisms. Higher still, organisms cooperate in collectivities like beehives, ant colonies, and human societies. 

Cooperation among certain things at one level can produce something very different at a higher level. And the very different something that emerges from cooperation can sometimes yield new value—call it pattern synergy—recognizing that when certain things are carefully arranged into a particular pattern, they can collectively produce something that is greater than the sum of its parts—often referred to as emergence. The gears and springs of a mechanical clock, for example, take on much more value when they are precisely arranged into a device that keeps accurate track of time. And, just as the design of a better clock requires enhanced cooperation among its gears and springs, the evolutionary design of better life also requires enhanced cooperation among its various components—molecules, cells, organs, and limbs. 

The concept of pattern synergy was recognized at the molecular level (and above) by the famed designer and inventor R. Buckminster Fuller in his 1975 book Synergetics, in which he defined synergy as “behavior of whole systems unpredicted by the behavior of their parts taken separately.”6Fuller’s work focused primarily on the geometric designs that naturally emerge from certain combinations of atoms and molecules. But the concept of pattern synergy can apply at many higher levels as well. At each level, emerging synergies become the building blocks for the next higher level. 

Life is all about patterns of matter and energy that are able to self-organize and replicate. 

Another contributor to the concept of pattern synergy is biologist Peter Corning, starting with his 1983 book The Synergism Hypothesis: A Theory of Progressive Evolution.7 In his 2003 book Nature’s Magic, he notes: “The thesis, in brief, is that synergy—a vaguely familiar term to many of us—is actually one of the great governing principles of the natural world. … It is synergy that has been responsible for the evolution of cooperation in nature and humankind …”8

Then there is Robert Wright’s runaway 2000 bestseller, Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, which focused on a critical distinction made by game theorists in their modeling of relationships as either zero-sum or nonzero-sum. Zero-sum games involve competitive relationships in which the positive gain of the winner equals the negative loss of the loser, summing to zero. Nonzero-sum games, on the other hand, involve relationships in which the interests of the game’s participants overlap. Two players of a game can both win, yielding a positive (nonzero) benefit to both. In real life, people find many ways of cooperating synergistically toward their mutual benefit, and Wright devotes his entire book to the proposition that life’s most successful relationships among organisms—both within and between species—are based on these kinds of nonzero win-win scenarios: “My hope is to illuminate a kind of force—the nonzero-sum dynamic—that has crucially shaped the unfolding of life on earth so far.”9

As an example of Wright’s way of thinking, consider how patterns from very different domains can cooperate toward their mutual proliferation. Cooperation among humans accelerated greatly about 10,000 years ago when our ancestors began working together in fields to cultivate farm crops, such as wheat. Those agricultural activity patterns persisted and proliferated because they allowed the genes of humans and the genes of wheat to mutually proliferate. And just a century ago, the patterns of materials and activities underlying tractor production began cooperating with the patterns of genes in humans as well as the patterns of genes in all species of agricultural production toward a veritable “orgy” of mutual proliferation. The human population has doubled twice since then, from 2 billion to 8 billion. And patterns of production in agriculture and industrial manufacturing have also proliferated roughly in tandem with humans. Our modern economy is highly positive-sum, thanks to the many synergies that result during production. 

Life’s progress comes primarily from “proliferation of the fittest” … far beyond its ability to just survive. 

In most nonzero-sum game-theoretic paradigms, the players have the option of cooperating (as if synergistically) toward their mutual benefit. However, they also have the option of betraying (or defecting), which may earn an even higher short-term payoff than cooperating. This tradeoff between the short-term temptation of betrayal versus the long-term benefits of ongoing cooperation was recognized by Robert Axelrod as a fundamental characteristic of life’s many relationships. In The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Axelrod ran through computer simulations of the Prisoner’s Dilemma game and discovered a successful strategy for encouraging ongoing cooperation based on reciprocity--known as tit-for-tat. “So while it pays to be nice, it also pays to be retaliatory. Tit-for-tat combines these desirable properties. It is nice, forgiving, and retaliatory.”10

Unfortunately, any system of cooperative life will naturally breed cheaters and defectors. Let’s just call them all parasites. Harvard entomologist E.O. Wilson has described parasites as “predators that eat prey in units of less than one.”11 Here, we recognize them as species that routinely act to divert life’s critical resources away from their best synergistic uses—away from the hosts that earn them to the parasites that simply steal them. Wilson goes on to say: “Tolerable parasites are those that have evolved to ensure their own survival and reproduction but at the same time with minimum pain and cost to the host.” While parasites can be wildly prolific in the short term, the burdens they place on their hosts ultimately limit their ability to proliferate over the long run. Since parasite species depend on their host species for future infestations, the relationship between them is ultimately competitive and dysergistic. There are a couple of ways that nature can eliminate parasitism: Mutations to the host species can sometimes discover an immunity to the parasite. Even better, mutations to the parasite species can sometimes discover a way for it to become mutualistic with the host. Parasites are actually prime candidates for discovering new forms of mutually beneficial cooperation. After all, the flow of benefit from the host to the parasite is halfway to the kind of relationship evolution prefers. To become fully mutualistic, all that is needed is for the parasite to reciprocate some sort of commensurate benefit to the host. 

Consider how E. coli bacteria in the guts of most animals evolved to provide a valuable digestive service in exchange for a steady supply of food on which the bacteria can feed. The initial infestation of bacteria into the guts of animals, long ago, might have started out as purely parasitic. But, if so, mutations to E. coli bacteria at some point found a way to cooperate by reciprocating benefit to their hosts. No matter how cooperative relationships come to exist, they are always preferable to—more prolific than—competitive relationships. In Richard Dawkins’ words: “Parasites become gentler to their hosts, more symbiotic.”12

Nature’s forces cause synergies to emerge from certain cooperative arrangements of things and activities. And it happens at all levels, from the atomic to the galactic. At every level, a new type of synergy emerges from cooperation among patterns of things and activities at lower levels. Evolution’s ability to discover new and better forms of pattern synergy at ever higher levels of cooperation is the natural source of all creativity. 

By shifting the emphasis to evolution’s successes rather than its failures, we reveal a clear directionality … always toward ever greater degrees of synergistic cooperation. 

Nowhere is pattern synergy more obvious or valuable than in the arrangement of the human brain, where 85 billion neurons cooperate to produce a vivid conscious awareness and ability to reason. In fact, each organ of a human body consists of many cells that all cooperate to produce a specific biological function. And at an even higher level, the complementary functions of human organs and limbs cooperate to produce a body capable of performing ballet. Cooperation is everywhere in life, within organisms and among them. 

Photo by NOAA / Unsplash

Many different types of species routinely cooperate toward their mutual proliferation by exchanging various services and molecular resources. We have already considered the mutually beneficial relationship between animals and the E. coli bacteria in their guts. As another example, bees provide a pollination service to flowering plants in exchange for nutritious nectar. In Entangled Life (2020), Merlin Sheldrake describes how certain fungi attached to plant roots can isolate and donate critical environmental nutrients to the plants in exchange for carbohydrates: “Today, more than ninety percent of plants depend on mycorrhizal fungi … which can link trees in shared networks sometimes referred to as the ‘wood wide web’.”13 These are just a few of the most obvious cases in which vastly different species find ways of cooperating toward their mutual proliferation. There are many other forms of cooperation among species that are far less obvious. When they are all tallied up, it becomes apparent that each species depends on many others for its existence, and the entire system of life develops almost as if it were a single self-regulating organism. 

Cooperation toward mutual proliferation appears to be what nature seeks. 

At ever higher levels, cooperation toward mutual proliferation appears to be what nature seeks. The occasional discovery of a better form of cooperation is what accounts for all types of evolving progress. (The term better here means more mutually prolific.) From nature’s perspective, the only way to define cooperation is in terms of patterns acting collectively toward their mutual replication and ongoing proliferation. Cooperation is the basis for everything of benefit or value to life. In this sense, evolution’s “purpose” is to discover ever better forms of cooperation among replicating patterns of things and activities, causing their ever-increasing mutual proliferation. 

Nutrient exchanges and communication between a mycorrhizal fungus and plants. (Source: Adapted by Charlotte Roy, Salsero35, Nefronus, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

So, life is about much more than just survival. Evolution seeks patterns that cooperate toward mutual proliferation. And the better they cooperate, the more they proliferate. From this perspective, natural selection works through the differential proliferation of patterns (such as genes)—some proliferating more rapidly than others (of which some will experience negative proliferation). Over time, any life-accommodating world may naturally become covered with species that best embody and embrace cooperation, making them most prolific. Importantly, in this interpretation of evolution, neither competition nor culling of the unfit is required for evolutionary progress. 

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Pioneers in this view of life are the chemist James Lovelock and the biologist Lynn Margulis, both of whom saw cooperation everywhere in the aggregate system of life. Margulis, for example, developed a cooperation-based theory of the origin of the eukaryotic cell—the complex cellular structure out of which all plants and animals are made—from simpler prokaryotic cells. Margulis theorized that the more complex eukaryotes resulted from the symbiotic union of different types of prokaryotes. Perhaps the very first eukaryotic cell resulted from a parasitic infestation by one type of prokaryote into another type. If so, the parasitic prokaryote then discovered a way to provide benefit to its host, and the parasitism gave way to mutualism. The patterns in those combined prokaryotes stumbled into a way of cooperating toward their mutual proliferation by together creating a better type of cell, a process Margulis called endosymbiosis.14

Most biologists were initially skeptical, but the tenacious Margulis heroically persisted in developing and presenting evidence to support her theory, and in the fullness of time her peers were forced by the weight of the evidence to finally accept it. An early adopter of Margulis’ theory was James Lovelock, who showed how different species naturally coevolve in ways that allow them to cooperatively regulate critical aspects of their common environment. Lovelock named his theory Gaia, after the primal Mother Earth goddess from Greek mythology.15

Nowhere is pattern synergy more obvious or valuable than in the arrangement of the human brain. 

To the extent any two species in a system of aggregate life successfully cooperate toward their mutual proliferation, they together may become increasingly abundant. Plants that participate in cooperative relationships with mycorrhizal fungi, for example, will tend to proliferate more rapidly than plants that don’t. So, it is not just a coincidence that our world has become covered by such cooperative plants. By comparison, noncooperative species become relatively diluted and decreasingly relevant to the overall system. The species that are best able to cooperate toward their mutual proliferation increasingly influence the entire system of life. In various ways, they collectively produce a stable environment that is conducive to their mutual ongoing proliferation. Thus, a subsystem of cooperation may naturally rise like a Phoenix out of the ashes of primitive and chaotic life. Species cultivated by farmers (corn, wheat, pigs, chickens) have certainly risen in abundance relative to other species due to their cooperation with humans, arguably the most poignant example of which is the domestication of wild wolves into modern dogs. 

The entire web of life becomes more robust as semiredundant cooperative mechanisms emerge in the set of all interspecies relationships. For example, in addition to bees, there are many other species of insects and small birds that redundantly pollinate flowering plants. So, if a few bee species were to go extinct, other pollinating species would likely pick up the slack. Likewise, there are many species of plants that redundantly produce the oxygen required by animals, and many species of animals that redundantly produce the carbon dioxide required by plants. 

Through all the redundancies across the many various mechanisms of cooperation, the whole system of aggregate life develops an evolutionary toughness, becoming increasingly stable, robust, and resilient to exogenous shocks. Accordingly, Margulis titled an essay on the subject “Gaia Is a Tough Bitch.” It describes how our planet’s temperature and atmosphere “are produced and maintained by the sum of life.”16 In her 1998 book Symbiotic Planet, Margulis says that plants and animals cooperate to hold the amount of oxygen in our atmosphere steady, at a level that “hovers between a global fire hazard and the risk of widespread death by asphyxiation.”17

According to Lovelock’s hypothesis, many different species cooperate to produce a very stable system of aggregate life able to regulate its own critical parameters—a capability known as homeostasis. And the interdependencies among species cause the entire system to increasingly act like a robust superorganism at a higher level. This view of earthly life as a superorganism was characterized by Richard Dawkins thusly: “Lovelock rightly regards homeostatic self-regulation as one of the characteristic activities of living organisms, and this leads him to the daring hypothesis that the whole Earth is equivalent to a single living organism. … Lovelock clearly takes his Earth and organism comparison seriously enough to devote a whole book to it. He really means it.”18

The discovery of new gene patterns that are better able to cooperate … is the constructive mechanism through which evolution develops new and better biological life. 

Dawkins’ writings have often carried the assumption that evolution happens in a parallel fashion among multiple competing organisms from which the unfit are fatally culled. With regard to the evolution of Gaia, for example, he wrote: “there would have to have been a set of rival Gaias, presumably on different planets. … The Universe would have to be full of dead planets whose homeostatic regulation systems had failed, with, dotted around, a handful of successful, well-regulated planets of which Earth is one.” 

As evolution is described here, however, it does not require competition among multiple species, along with extinction by some. The discovery of new gene patterns that are better able to cooperate toward their mutual proliferation is the constructive mechanism through which evolution develops new and better biological life. Neither competition nor culling of the unfit is necessarily required. 

To his already enormous credit, however, Dawkins also wrote: “I do not deny that somebody may, one day, produce a workable model of the evolution of Gaia … although I personally doubt it. But if Lovelock has such a model in mind he does not mention it.”19 Well, allow me to suggest a workable model of an evolving Gaia. 

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Natural selection chooses some patterns of life over others primarily on the basis of their respective abilities to proliferate. This allows us to conceive of evolution operating on a sole entity, such as a single system of aggregate life composed of many interdependent species. It is a serial style of evolution based on ever better forms of cooperation among its various species. The beneficial changes resulting from this style of evolution simply unfold sequentially through time, as new and better forms of cooperation are discovered. And the net effect is ever greater proliferation of aggregate life. It appears to be a much more accurate description of how evolution really works than the widely accepted parallel style that relies on competition. 

This serial style of evolution applies to Lovelock’s model of Gaia in which evolving patterns build themselves up through ever better relationships of cooperation. From among those patterns, the fittest—which tend to be the most cooperative in this model—are naturally selected by way of their greater proliferation, without any need for competition or culling of the unfit. 

Consider the 2016 book by Russian complexity scientist Peter Turchin, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth.20 The central idea is that physical competition and mortal conflict were necessary for eliminating entire groups of noncooperators, leaving just the groups of cooperators to survive. But when we model natural selection in terms of differential proliferation, we may conclude that no war was ever required. While many wars certainly did happen over the past 10,000 years, general cooperation was likely destined to emerge and flourish even if they hadn’t happened. 

Cooperation naturally emerges because it creates mutually beneficial synergies. And those synergies yield evolutionary advantage to the cooperators, enabling their greater proliferation. Two cooperative families, for example, might take turns caring for each other’s children, realizing synergistic efficiencies that would enable both families to diligently raise more children than would have otherwise been possible. We should therefore expect groups full of cooperators to proliferate their populations more rapidly than groups full of competitors. And any planetary system of sufficiently intelligent life will, over time, become increasingly dominated by the faster-growing groups of cooperators, without anyone ever having to die prematurely. 

Life is about much more than just survival. Evolution seeks patterns that cooperate toward mutual proliferation. And the better they cooperate, the more they proliferate. 

This cooperation-based interpretation of evolution gives us new insight into a decades-old debate among evolutionists over the concept of group selection. The debate focuses on whether natural selection needs to operate at the group level to explain how group-benefiting behaviors can naturally emerge. To fully expose the dilemma, Richard Dawkins imagines two very different groups—one composed of cooperative altruists and the other composed of individuals who are purely selfish. Dawkins suggests that the group of altruists, “whose individual members are prepared to sacrifice themselves for the welfare of the group, may be less likely to go extinct than a rival group whose individual members place their own selfish interests first.” But, there’s a catch: “Even in the group of altruists, there will be a dissenting minority who refuse to make any sacrifice. If there is just one selfish rebel, prepared to exploit the altruism of the rest, then he, by definition, is more likely than they are to survive and have children. Each of these children will tend to inherit his selfish traits. After several generations of this natural selection, the ‘altruistic group’ will be overrun by the selfish individuals, and will be indistinguishable from the selfish group.”21

Dawkins has expressed his belief that natural selection operating at the level of genes is sufficient to account for the emergence of group-benefiting behaviors. And arguments presented here support that belief. When natural selection is defined as proliferation of the fittest (rather than elimination of the unfit), there is then no difference between selection at the genetic level and selection at the group level. Groups are selected to the extent genes within them proliferate. 

Groups are naturally selected by their differential ability to grow their populations. And cooperative groups will always tend to proliferate more rapidly than uncooperative groups. Mutually beneficial cooperation simply bubbles forth from within such a group. No individual needs to die, and no group needs to be eliminated, for group selection to occur. In fact, no competition at all between groups is ever required for evolutionary progress, other than to see which can sustainably grow its population the fastest. 

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The evolutionary value of cooperation over competition was recognized more than a century ago by the Russian intelligentsia. But the concept remained largely ignored by evolutionary thinkers in the West until nobleman Peter Kropotkin was exiled to English territory for political reasons. There, he wrote a series of articles (in English) discussing Darwin’s central theme of “struggle for existence,” later collected into a book titled Mutual Aid.22 About a century later, evolutionary theorist and historian of science Stephen Jay Gould penned one of his monthly columns titled “Kropotkin Was No Crackpot.” “Perhaps cooperation and mutual aid are the more common results of struggle for existence,” Gould opined. “Perhaps communion rather than combat leads to greater reproductive success in most circumstances.”23 Gould then presented a fascinating account of how and why Russians were more predisposed than Westerners to appreciate the evolutionary value of cooperation among animals and among humans. 

Just a subtle twist in how we think of natural selection opens a new interpretation of evolution that emphasizes cooperation. We have simply elevated our focus, away from nature’s less favored species that are concerned with mere survival, upward to nature’s more preferred species capable of rapid proliferation. By shifting the emphasis to evolution’s successes rather than its failures, we reveal a clear directionality in how all kinds of progressive systems naturally develop—always toward ever greater degrees of synergistic cooperation among replicating patterns. That natural directionality determines how nature defines goodness and betterment, providing a bedrock foundation for a new system of naturalized philosophy. It also suggests a purpose to life—to advance evolution in the direction it was always destined to go—toward ever greater cooperation, mutualism, and symbiosis.

They watch us. They learn about us and our habits. We are a big part of the environmental conditions to which many of them have adapted.

They’re like us. They hang around in groups. Individuals have different personalities. Pairs bond together for years at a time, maybe lifetimes, and they take good care of their kids. They’re loud, opportunistic, mischievous, and messy. And they’re smart.

Meet Crows

Members of the genus Corvus—crows—include birds with “crow” in their common names as well as ravens, rooks, and jackdaws. There are 45–50 named species of Corvus at the moment (the naming of species is a dynamic field), though that range will change and increase as more information from populations in unstudied areas becomes available. They are medium- to large-sized birds with big heads relative to body size and, usually, large to massive bills. They live all over the world except South America and Antarctica, in the varied habitats that exist across continents and on islands, from southern to northern high latitudes.

American Crows live in populations having different social organizations and dynamics in different regions of North America. The members of populations that breed in the north migrate in spring and fall of each year, with known one-way travel distances of up to 1,740 miles (2,800 km). Each year, they spend months commuting, and they live in one place during spring and summer and another in fall and winter. During migration, they spend nights at the same giant communal roosts along their routes, much like humans returning to the same campgrounds on annual road trips.

Ravens are the largest crows and occur all around the northern hemisphere. Most don’t breed until they’re 4 years old, and some not until they’re 10. Once they become breeders, ravens tend to live in pairs. In the years between leaving natal areas and breeding, individuals join other nonbreeders in small groups and larger flocks as they jointly acquire the skills needed for successful breeding, including being able to reliably find food (carcasses that are unpredictable in when and where they’ll become available, across huge landscapes).

New Caledonian Crows occur on only two of New Caledonia’s islands. Since they inhabit primary forests, observing them in the field is challenging. They are not very social, although kids tend to stick close to parents for extended periods, up to 2 years. New Caledonian Crows are the only nonhuman animals known to make tools from materials with which they have no experience1 and the only ones known to make cumulative improvements to tool design over time.2

I have had the opportunity to observe and study many crows myself, and to learn about the behavior and cognitive capabilities of other species through experimental research and fieldwork published by other scientists. There is a tendency to want to compare the results of studies of cognition in nonhuman animals to humans. How do they measure up? How about compared to apes? Such comparisons are already not straightforward when comparing other mammals, and even less so when comparing crows. They are very different types of organisms that live in three-dimensional worlds, without hands, and with brains, eyes and ears that are different from those of mammals. And yet in test after test, crows perform equal to or even better than apes, and are on par with human children or occasionally even exceed adult human capabilities!

American Crows

I began studying American Crows in the early 1980s, on a golf course in Encino, CA. For purposes of my research, I needed to be able to tell individuals apart, and so I had to catch them, to be able to mark them. They were very difficult to capture! With the use of traps and nets3, 4 and climbing to nests to temporarily obtain and mark late-stage nestlings,5 I got a bunch marked and was able to peer into their worlds. They are one of the most civilized species of which I am aware.

The crows I studied in California were year-round residents that nested colonially (that is, having lots of nests in the same general area) and defended only the small areas of space immediately surrounding their nests—if they defended any space at all. Neighbors often foraged together, members of breeding groups were regularly observed in others’ core areas, and breeders rarely prevented others from entering their nest tree or landing on or near their nests. Most individuals did not breed until they were at least 3 or 4 years old, and many nonbreeders remained in natal areas associating with parents or joined the resident non-breeding flock.

I had one of my favorite fieldwork experiences, ever, on that golf course: Because population members had come to associate me with things that caused them distress (e.g., climbing to their nests), they transferred that to other situations and would yell at me, when I arrived, after something bad had happened. One day I drove around on golf cart paths looking for the cause of their yelling, and on the ground found a female with an injured wing. She could not fly but she could run, and the crows dive-bombed and yelled at me as I chased her down. I had her examined by a vet and taped up, and she spent 8 weeks in a cage in my bedroom as her wing healed. In the field, her mate and 1-year old daughter continued to care for the four nestlings in her nest. Three weeks after I took her to my place, a strong storm blew her nest out of its tree and all of the nestlings died. Her mate and daughter hung around for another two weeks, but then were not seen very often. After two months her bone had healed, but her flight muscles had atrophied. I moved her to a flight cage and put her through regular daily exercises. Finally, eleven weeks after her removal, I brought her to the golf course.

Ravens form alliances, reconcile conflicts, and console distressed partners.

I wafted her into her nest tree and threw a bunch of peanuts on the ground. Crows began to fly to the peanuts, and she joined them. Almost immediately, I saw her mate headed right for her from across a busy 4-lane road. He landed beside her and both of them bowed low to each other and produced a slow, melodic, low frequency vocalization that I had never heard before. The pair then proceeded to walk around the group of peanut eating crows and stopped to bow and vocalize to each other three more times. I was crying. The pair was reunited.

The crows I studied in Oklahoma were year-round residents in small-to-large territories that were only sometimes defended against neighbor intrusion. Most delayed breeding until at least 3–4 years old, and many remained “at home” with parents until they bred. Many also left home and moved in with other groups within the population before becoming breeders. Individuals had friends in groups other than their own, and some that had moved out of the population returned occasionally to natal territories and spent time with their parents. Some visited their siblings in other groups, and some moved in with their siblings’ families. Several males established territories adjacent to their parents, and extended families of at least three generations would spend time together.6

One day, I sat in my car watching a group in a residential backyard. One of the crows walked along a wooden fence railing to the end post and attempted to get at something in the interior of the hole supporting the railing. Unsuccessful with its bill, it pecked at the wood surrounding the hole and loosened a section at the top, pulling on it until a triangular piece of wood broke off. The crow placed the piece of wood under its feet, with the wide end closest to its body, and hammered several times at the tapered end. It then picked up the piece of wood by the wide end and probed the hole with the tapered end for about 20 seconds. Another crow in the group called from some distance away, and the toolmaker placed the probe into the hole and took off. I went to the hole, saw only the remains of a spider’s web, and retrieved the probe. It did not match the gap from which it had been pulled—the tapered end had clearly been narrowed.7 A few days later when I approached the post, a large spider dashed out of the hole.

Also in Oklahoma, I watched the mother of the nestlings in the nest to which my co-worker was headed hammer repeatedly at a branch of a nearby pine tree. At first, I thought she was exhibiting displacement behavior but then a pinecone at her feet loosened (she had been hammering at its connection), and she carried it to above my co-worker and dropped it right on his head! She repeated this behavior three more times, hitting him on 3 out of the 4 tries.

So that I could observe crows behaving naturally when I wasn’t trying to capture them or get to nestlings, I donned a disguise on the latter occasions. Years later, it was officially demonstrated that American Crows can remember “dangerous” human faces for at least 2.7 years,8 and they can even learn whom to worry about from others!9

Ravens

Ravens are scavengers and regularly store (cache) away surplus food obtained at carcasses, and they rely on their caches for sustenance. They are not known to use tools much in the wild.

Caching behavior has been the focus of many studies10, 11 and ravens are skilled strategists. If they know another raven is watching them, they will go to a location out of the observer’s view before caching. Cachers behave differently in the presence of competitors who have or have not seen the caching event: if they have been watched while storing food, cachers move their caches when knowledgeable competitors get close.

Competitors behave differently depending on the situation. If they know where the cache is but the raven they’re paired with doesn’t know that they know, they run right over and retrieve it. If they’re paired with the cacher and the cacher knows they’re wise to the location, they act as if they don’t know and dawdle and fiddle around, seemingly hoping to take advantage of any lapse in focus by the cacher. This level of understanding of what others know rivals that demonstrated in chimpanzees.12

Photo by Peter Lloyd / Unsplash

When given an opportunity to pay attention to another cacher while caching, ravens performed better than humans when asked to retrieve both their own and the other cacher’s caches.13 And when paired with a partner who kept taking advantage of the situation, a raven employed a human-like solution: deception. Ravens were trained to find and retrieve food hidden in a maze of film canisters and one raven was better at it than a dominant male. At some point, the dominant raven quit playing and would just wait for the other one to choose a canister and begin to open the lid, then fly over and steal the food. The raven “being taken advantage of” then changed tactics and initially went to go to a canister it knew to be empty and pretended to try to open it. When the dominant bird flew over and was distracted for a few seconds expecting to get the food, the other flew to a canister it knew to be filled, and got the food!14

Ravens successfully solved the problem of obtaining meat dangling from a branch by pulling up sections of the string and stepping on them to keep them from falling back down. And then they were successful with the non-intuitive task of pulling down on the string to bring the meat up.15 They did as well as apes in tests of choosing appropriate tools (despite not being tools used in the wild) and they did better than orangutans, chimps, and bonobos when asked to choose the correct currency for bartering for food.16 Ravens were able to select the right tool in environments different from where they learned to use it; even in the face of 17-hour (overnight) delays between having to select the appropriate tool and being able to use it, providing evidence of their forward-planning abilities. They did better than 4-year-old children in the first-trial performances at the tool- and currency-choice experiments,17 and they are perceptive enough to follow the gaze of a human to a location out of view and hop over to see what’s up.18

Ravens form alliances, reconcile conflicts, and console distressed partners.19, 20, 21 They remember former group members and their relationships with them after long (years) periods of separation.22 When disappointed or frustrated, for example by being offered less preferred food, they respond in a way that other ravens observing them can identify, and the observers themselves are then negatively affected.23 In measures of value, compatibility, and security, the quality of raven social relationships was said to be analogous to those of chimpanzees.24

New Caledonian Crows

In 1996, a paper published in Nature changed everything: New Caledonian Crows were manufacturing tools, in the wild, at a level of complexity not ever seen among nonhuman animals before.25 To extract prey from burrows and natural crevices, they make hooks and probes from twigs and pieces cut from leaf, some of which require sophisticated manipulation and modification skills. No other nonhuman animals do anything like it.26, 27

Betty was the name of a New Caledonian Crow caught in the wild and taken (with several others) to the University of Oxford for testing.28, 29 She was partnered in a cage with a male given the name Able. In an early test, Betty and Able were allowed into a room with a table that had a clear plastic vertical tube, secured in a plastic pan, containing a basket-shaped container of meat at the bottom. There were two wires on the table; one had already been bent so there was a hook at one end. The researchers wondered if one of the crows would use the hook to grab the basket handle, and Betty at first picked it up, but Able took it from her and flew away with it. Betty wanted the meat. She picked up the straight wire (in her bill) and inserted it into the tube but, of course, it was useless in its straight form. And so with force, she jammed the wire into a corner of the pan several times and bent it into a hook! She then used the hook to get the basket. Her behavior made clear that she had a mental representation in her mind of the problem and the solution, and therefore of the instrument she needed to make.

Crows perform equal to or even better than apes, and are on par with human children or occasionally even exceed adult human capabilities.

New Caledonian Crows were able to spontaneously solve a “metatool” task (using a short tool to obtain a longer one needed for food extraction),30 and they were able to keep in mind the out-of-sight tools they had available (and where they stored them), while performing sequences of tool tasks, providing strong evidence that they can plan several moves ahead.31

From field and lab studies of tool behavior, scientists have also learned that New Caledonian Crows:

• Choose sticks of appropriate length to match the distance to food.32
• Choose sticks of thickness that track the diameter of holes.33
• Choose the right tool for a task that will only occur in the future.34
• Unbundle a preferred stick rather than use a nonpreferred one.35

Such selectivity suggests these crows have representations of the situations in their minds and so can select the appropriate tools. They also tend to keep their preferred tools safe, under their feet and in holes.36

Individual New Caledonian Crows tend to be lateralized in their tool use (i.e., right- or left-billed): they usually hold probe tools in their bills, with the nonworking ends pressed against one side of their heads37 and individuals prefer one side over the other for different tasks.38 Lateralization is thought to be associated with complex tasks and mental demands (i.e., as tasks increase in difficulty, “control areas” in brains become specialized/localized),39, 40 suggesting that, as in humans, species-level lateralization is an adaptation for efficient neural processing of complex tasks.41

Evidence from more than 5,500 tools suggests that narrow and stepped variations were likely improvements on the wide-tool design.

Tools made by New Caledonian Crows from Pandanus leaves come in three types, all with a barbed edge: unstepped narrow and wider probes, and “stepped” tools,42 the latter being made through a sequenced process involving a series of distinct snips and tears along the barbed edge of a leaf to produce a probe that increasingly narrows toward the tip (the “steps”) and has barbs along one edge.43 Evidence from more than 5,500 tools suggests that narrow and stepped variations were likely improvements on the wide-tool design.44

Photo by Kasturi Roy / Unsplash

And so, these crows have evolved minds powerful enough to develop and improve upon tool design, something thought possible only by humans (technological progress is thought to be one of our hallmark characteristics). That there is geographic variation in tool manufacture and the innovations are passed from generation to generation45, 46, 47 suggests there may be cultural mechanisms at work.

Experiments with captive-bred, hand-raised New Caledonian Crows have demonstrated a strong genetic component to tool interest, manufacture, and use—young crows start playing with twigs, leaves, and crevices on their own, suggesting the phenomenon is an evolved adaptation.

More Crows

In preparation for studies of cognition and neurophysiology, crows have been trained to monitor screens in experimental setups and respond to visual and auditory signals so that they can be trained to do all kinds of other things. Carrion Crows, for example, have been trained to identify complex pictures despite distractions,48, 49 express their understanding of the concept of greater than/less than50 and to respond to the switching between “same” and “different” rules provided both visually and auditorily.51 They’ve been trained to discriminate quantity, ranging between 1–30 dots on a screen52, 53 and they have been trained to peck different numbers of times and to indicate “I’m done” when they’re finished with their answer.54, 55 That these birds can understand the training protocols is almost as impressive as the results of the studies!

Jackdaws performed on par with apes in a test of self-control over motor impulses and did better than bonobos and gorillas despite brains that are 70–94 times smaller.56 Unlike chimpanzees, and similarly to observations about ravens described earlier, jackdaws respond to human gaze and nonverbal cues like pointing.57

Crows play, have friends, and mourn the death of friends and family members.

Hooded Crows have been shown to be capable of analytical reasoning. In tests called “match-to-sample,” where subjects are presented with paired stimuli that are the same or different (e.g., in size or shape) and then asked to match the concepts of “same” or “different” to brand new items, crows spontaneously perceived and understood the relationships without any specific training in categories of size, shape, and color.58 Such analytical thinking is thought to be foundational for “categorization, creative problem solving, and scientific discovery,” and was thought to be uniquely human.59

Carrion Crows were able to learn the Arabic numerals 1–4 and then produce matching numbers of vocalizations (e.g., “caw caw caw” for 3) when prompted by the visual image or an auditory cue.60 The modality of the cue did not affect their performance, indicating that their vocal production was guided by an abstract numerical concept. Evidence also indicates that the crows were planning the total number of vocalizations before they started vocalizing and that when errors were made—too few or too many—the crows had started out correctly but “lost track” along the way.

Carrion Crows have also been shown to be capable of recursion: the cognitive ability to process paired elements embedded within a larger sequence.61 For example, a “center-embedded” sequence would appear [{}] and is analogous to “the crow the experimenter chose passed the test,” with {} corresponding to “the experimenter chose.” An ability to use recursion might potentially, possibly infinitely, expand the range of ideas and concepts that can be communicated. Carrion Crows outperformed macaques and performed on par with human children in tests of recursive abilities; another characteristic thought to be unique to humans.

Rooks are not known to use tools in the wild, but they figured out that by plugging specific holes in the floor of an aviary (including tapping in the plugs!), they could create pools of water in which individuals could drink and bathe.62 Rooks also learned to get food in a trap-tube task (inserting a probe into one end of a tube with holes in it, in order to push out a food reward) and transferred what they learned to a new task on their first try,63 rivaling the physical intelligence of chimpanzees.64 One rook transferred concepts to two additional tasks, indicating she understood the physical aspects of the challenges (including gravity) and was able to “abstract rules” and form mental representations.65

Rook at Slimbridge Wetland Centre, Gloucestershire, England (Photo by Adrian Pingstone, via Wikimedia)

In another set of experiments,66 rooks pushed stones into tubes to collapse a platform to obtain a worm and immediately transferred the concept and picked up stones to drop them in tubes. They chose the correctly sized stones when tube diameters were changed; when no stones were provided, they left the testing room to go outside to collect stones before returning to the testing apparatus! When conditions changed, they immediately used (provided) sticks in lieu of stones; heavy sticks were dropped in and light ones were shoved, suggesting goal-directed thinking. They solved a metatool task, were able to modify branches into functional tools, understood how a hook functioned and used one to retrieve a basket of food at the bottom of a tube, and bent straight wires into hooks, thereby rivaling the abilities of tool-using New Caledonian Crows. All of these findings provide evidence for insight being involved in the problem-solving abilities of rooks.

Final Thoughts

The “marshmallow test” is one of the most well-known and compelling demonstrations of the human ability to delay gratification. Videos showing children struggling to not eat the marshmallow after the experimenter and parent leave the room, so that they may claim more marshmallows later, are both endearing and powerful demonstrations of the heretofore-thought-to-be uniquely human experiences of impatience, frustration, self-control, reward and gratification, and the ability to plan ahead. Ravens, Carrion Crows, and New Caledonian Crows all aced versions of the marshmallow test, thereby breaching another hallmark.67, 68

♦ ♦ ♦

Crows play, have friends, and mourn the death of friends and family members.69, 70 It’s said that as more and more similarities in the cognitive capabilities, biases, and types of errors are exposed, the more likely it is that crows think like we do. And although their brains are built differently and most testing so far has been originally mammal-oriented, the list of cognitive capabilities crows share with us is already pretty impressive: abstract rules and analytical reasoning, consolation and reconciliation, mental representations and goal-directed behavior, innovation and insight, technological advances, transfer of concepts, knowing what others know, lateralization, tool manufacture and use, metatool use, comprehending quantity and numbers, planning for the future, recursion, motor and vocal control, tactical deceit, and even tracking humans, remembering our faces, and deciphering our intentions.

I wonder what else crows might show us if we knew what and how to ask. We are similar in that we are diurnal and we rely mostly on vision and hearing to perceive and respond to our surroundings, but our umwelts (the term coined by the biologist von Uexküll for the different perceptual worlds of different organisms) differ in myriad other ways. Right? They pick through poop to find bugs! They stand on ice in bare feet! They fly!

I wish we could know how they think, and that maybe in contexts such as greed, selfishness, cruelty, and war, that we could think more like they do.

“If there is no enemy within, the enemy outside can do us no harm.”1

Ever since a Hezbollah suicide bomber in 1983 blew up a truck packed with explosives and killed 241 Marines in Beirut, combating Islamic terrorist organizations has been a priority for U.S. intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies. However, for those of us who have followed the spiraling growth of Islamic terrorism in the 1980s and 1990s, it seemed as if the U.S was sluggishly reactive. They made little headway in extensive counterterrorism programs designed at penetrating and dismantling Islamic terror groups.2

How was it possible for the hijackers and their plot to remain off the radar of intelligence and law enforcement?

The 9/11 attack put a spotlight on the failures of the security agencies tasked to protect the U.S. against acts of terror. How was it possible for 19 hijackers and their ambitious plot to remain off the radar of intelligence and law enforcement? The truth, as I discovered during 18 months of reporting for my book, Why America Slept: The Failure to Prevent 9/11, was not that the plot had gone undetected, but rather that the agencies responsible for monitoring and fighting terrorism had failed to share information, something that would have made it possible to connect the dots before the attack occurred.

The failures were more substantive than mere interagency rivalries between the CIA, FBI, NSA, and local law enforcement. Exclusive interviews I had with top intelligence officers and FBI officials revealed that the origins and depth of the dysfunction inside America’s counterintelligence programs was an internecine bureaucratic war that left little room for working together. Sharing information was given lip service but seldom practiced, particularly when the intelligence at stake was judged as having “high value.”

If the CIA had alerted the State Department, the two Saudis would have been on a watch list that barred them from entering the United States.

The most serious failure was the CIA’s tracking of two terrorists, Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi, when they moved from Saudi Arabia to California in 2000. If the CIA had alerted the State Department, the two Saudis would have been on a watch list that barred them from entering the United States. Once in California, however, the CIA could not legally monitor them domestically. The Agency not only lost track of the two Saudis but failed to let the FBI, which is specifically authorized to act within the U.S., know they were here. In July of 2001, only two months before 9/11, an FBI memo warned the American intelligence community that some bin Laden followers might be training at U.S. flight schools in preparation for an aerial terror attack. The CIA was unaware that al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi had taken flight training while living in the U.S.

If the CIA had shared its information about the two Saudis, al-Mihdhar might have been detained in June 2001, when he returned to Saudi Arabia and his visa had expired. Or when an Oklahoma state trooper pulled over al-Hazmi for speeding and a driver’s license check in the national database would have triggered security alerts. Sharing the CIA security concerns about the duo would have meant the Transportation Department had a red flag on them. The pair even used their own names when making reservations on American Airlines Flight 77, which was flown into the Pentagon.

“Responsibility and accountability were diffuse,” the 9/11 Commission Report concluded a year after I had published Why America Slept.3 That was a diplomatic understatement of the paralyzing dysfunction between intelligence and security agencies and policy makers. The unintended consequence of such discord was to give the advantage invariably to the terrorists.

My reporting revealed that the dearth of cooperation between the country’s top security and intelligence services was not new to 9/11. Exposing how and why the breakdowns to communicate between agencies had begun and persisted for decades explains why the world’s best law enforcement and intelligences agencies ended up fighting each other instead of combating Islamic terrorism.

“We knew that the Islamic threat was the next security problem for the U.S., and we had known it since the 1970s,” Duane “Dewey” Clarridge told me in a rare no-questions-off-limit interview in the wake of 9/11.4 Clarridge was a CIA legend. He was twenty-three when he joined the Agency in 1955 and over the next thirty years earned a reputation as one of its most accomplished covert operatives. Clarridge served in Nepal, India, and Turkey, before returning to headquarters in the 1970s. He became the chief of covert operations for the Near East Division, later ran Arab covert ops, then moved to the Latin American Division, before becoming the Rome station chief. It was during his three years in Arab operations that Clarridge became familiar with the key Islamic terrorists.

“We were running operations in Beirut against an alphabet-soup of Palestinian terror groups,” recalled Clarridge. “At the same time, Carlos the Jackal was running around Europe, pulling off stunts like trying to use a grenade launcher to down an El Al airplane at Orly, or shooting his way into the Vienna OPEC meeting, killing three, and kidnapping the Saudi and Iranian oil ministers. We had our hands full.”5

The Rivalry for Control of Operations and Investigations Between the CIA and FBI continues.

Terrorists ambushed and murdered Richard Welch, the CIA’s Athens station chief, two days before Christmas in 1975. Clarridge and his senior CIA colleagues wanted to go after the terrorists with covert assassination plans. The Agency’s timing was poor, however. Senate hearings into past misdeeds produced months of sordid headlines about the Agency’s 1960s assassination plots working with the Mafia to kill Fidel Castro, mind-control experiments, and failed foreign coups. Those hearings “permanently changed the way Clandestine Services operated,” says Clarridge. “It changed the rules of the game for us.”6

Congress initiated a process by which the Agency had to submit plans for its covert ops to a committee chaired by the president. Congress would be notified within sixty days after the president signed off. Permanent congressional oversight committees were established. The coup de grâce was President Ford’s Executive Order 11905 on February 18, 1976, that barred U.S. government agencies from undertaking assassinations.

The CIA abruptly halted its plans to eliminate Welch’s killers. For the next seven years, the Agency instead engaged in a mostly unsuccessful campaign to gather intelligence on leading Islamic terror groups in the hope of alerting allies to upcoming attacks.

The suicide truck bomber changed everything.

The suicide truck bomber who struck the U.S. embassy in Beirut in 1983 changed everything. CIA Director William Casey and FBI Director William Webster immediately dispatched teams to find out what happened. There were conflicts between those teams from the start. They got so bad that the agents of the rival agencies sometimes got into screaming and shoving matches. The FBI team returned home early, angry and frustrated by what it complained was dismissive treatment by its CIA counterparts.7 The CIA’s new Beirut station chief, William Buckley, ultimately offered an olive branch to the FBI: he invited the Bureau to dispatch another team to Lebanon and investigate free of CIA micromanagement. The FBI solved the case by tracing a fragment of an axle from the bombing truck to an Iranian factory that had links to the Iranian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

But by the time the FBI reached that conclusion, Iranian-sponsored terrorists had managed to kidnap Buckley in Beirut. That prompted President Reagan to create the government’s first joint task force to battle terrorism. The Restricted Interagency Group for Terrorism was chaired by the CIA’s director of covert operations, and it consisted of single representatives from the CIA, FBI, and the National Security Council. Dewey Clarridge was the Agency rep. The FBI’s man was Oliver “Buck” Revell, the assistant director for criminal investigations (I knew Buck well; he was the FBI Supervisor in Charge of the Dallas office when I researched the JFK assassination for my 1993 book, Case Closed). The National Security Council selected a U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel named Oliver North as its representative.

The new anti-terror group was in a rush to free Buckley before he could be tortured into giving up secrets. North wanted to use DEA informants—heroin traffickers who promised to deliver Buckley for $2 million. Dallas businessman Ross Perot agreed to finance the ransom to avoid U.S. laws that prohibited paying money to drug dealers. But the FBI, under the cautious leadership of William Webster, a former judge whom Jimmy Carter had appointed to run the Bureau, strenuously objected. North then backed a Clarridge operation to kidnap a Lebanese Shiite cleric, the head of Islamic Jihad, the organization holding Buckley. Clarridge wanted to trade the cleric for the CIA station chief. Again, the FBI’s fierce resistance scuttled the plan.

Clarridge fumed at the FBI’s intransigence and lobbied Casey to give the Agency more power in fighting terrorism. In January 1986, with a green light from Ronald Reagan, Casey created the Counterterrorism Center (CTC). Clarridge became its chief and he directed a staff of two hundred CIA officers, mostly analysts, as well as ten people loaned from other government intel and security agencies.8

Clarridge initially wanted to rely on the CIA’s foreign stations for surveillance, intel gathering, and informer recruitment, but that was not feasible since they were running at capacity. And, as Clarridge recalled, “the station chiefs were each narrowly focused on their own geographic divisions, while terrorism was a global problem that respected no boundaries.”9

Much to Clarridge’s disappointment, his only remaining option was to rely on the FBI for most of CTC’s field and operational assistance. It was against his better judgment since he thought the Webster-run FBI was far too risk-averse. Working with the Bureau also meant Clarridge had to run operations plans past FBI lawyers. “No one was very excited at the prospect of sharing national security secrets with lawyers at Justice,” recalled Clarridge.10

Clarridge quickly proposed an ambitious and risky operation to kidnap the Islamic Jihad hijackers of TWA Flight 847 and to fly them to America for trial. Webster contended the operation was likely to fail and that it likely violated both international and U.S. laws. The standoff between Clarridge and Webster killed the plan.

The next proposed CTC op was to kidnap Mohammed Hussein Rashid, a top bomb maker who had gotten explosives past airport security machines hidden in a Sony Walkman. A CTC operation to grab Rashid in the Sudan failed. Clarridge blamed the FBI, whose field agents were responsible for what the bureaucracy dubbed an “extraordinary rendition.” The Bureau complained that the Agency’s intelligence was flawed.

The unintended consequence of such discord was to give the advantage invariably to the terrorists.

The deteriorating CIA and FBI tensions worsened during a series of bungled operations. Not only did it botch the Rashid kidnapping, but a squad dispatched to free Beirut station chief Buckley also failed. It was also unsuccessful in tracking down the Libyan terrorists who bombed a Berlin disco frequented by American soldiers. The 1985 hijackings of TWA Flight 847 and the cruise liner Achille Lauro were headline news and made the U.S. look vulnerable and weak.

The FBI began a whisper campaign in Washington that the CIA’s jealous stewardship of CTC was its ruination. Those back door complaints resulted in a task force headed by Vice President George H.W. Bush. It proposed the FBI run its own “intelligence fusion center” to complement the CTC, but its recommendations were never implemented.11

Senior CIA officials complained bitterly to Reagan’s national security team that the FBI was overly cautious.

Senior CIA officials complained bitterly to Reagan’s national security team that the FBI was overly cautious and that America was vulnerable to Islamic terrorists who had entered on legal visas and had set up sleeper cells. Reagan responded in September 1986 by creating the Alien Border Control Committee (ABCC), an interagency task force designed to block the entry of suspected terrorists while also finding and deporting militants who had entered the country illegally or had overstayed their visas. The CIA and FBI joined the ABCC effort with great fanfare.

The ABCC had its first success only six months after its formation. The CIA tipped off the FBI about a group of suspected Palestinian terrorists in Los Angeles and the Bureau arrested eight men. But instead of being lauded, civil liberties groups contended that the ABCC should not be allowed to use information from the government’s routine processing of visa requests. Massachusetts Democratic Congressman Barney Frank, a strong civil liberties advocate, led a successful effort to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act so that membership in a terrorist group would no longer be sufficient reason to deny anyone a visa. The Frank amendment meant a visa could only be denied if the government could prove that the applicant had committed an act of terrorism.12 The amendment thereby rendered the ABCC toothless.

Meanwhile, the worsening relationship between the CIA and FBI hit a nadir within a couple of years when the weapons-for-hostages (Iran–Contra) scandal broke. The three key figures were the CIA’s Casey and Clarridge and the National Security Council’s North, all senior Counterterrorism Center officials. The FBI’s Buck Revell worried that the CIA and NSC might have violated U.S. laws prohibiting aid being given to the Contras and negotiating with terrorists. After Casey testified to Congress in November that he did not know who was behind the sale of two thousand TOW missiles to Iran (though the Agency was actively involved), Revell told FBI Director Webster that he thought Casey and other top Agency officials were obstructing justice. Webster authorized the Bureau to open a criminal investigation.

The failure of the country’s two premier national security agencies to work together seamlessly … only works to the benefit of America’s many enemies.

Casey was incapacitated by a stroke and hospitalized in early December. He resigned as CIA Director after surgery for a brain tumor a month later. Reagan tapped Robert Gates, the Agency’s Deputy Director, to take charge. But Gates soon withdrew his name when it became clear that questions about his role in Iran– Contra had scuttled any chance for Senate confirmation.13 After Gates’s withdrawal, Reagan offered the CIA job to Republican Senator John Tower, the head of the president’s Iran–Contra board. Tower declined. Reagan then got a no from James Baker, his chief of staff.14 Reagan and his team were in a panic. There were a dozen names on their list of possible CIA directors, but the president was set to make his first comments about the Iran–Contra scandal in a highly anticipated address to the nation on the evening of Wednesday, March 4. Reagan wanted to pick a new CIA director before that speech. Everyone agreed it had to be someone who would easily obtain Senate confirmation. That narrowed the field. On the morning of his national speech, Reagan met with FBI Director William Webster—who was in the final year of a 10-year contract to run the FBI—and surprised everyone by offering him the CIA post.

The news that the cautious FBI director had been asked to run the CIA sent shock waves through Langley and the ranks of senior spies. Webster was a Christian Scientist who relished a reputation as an inflexible straight arrow. He boasted his only vices were chocolate and tennis. Historian Thomas Powers concluded that the “CIA would rather be run by a Cub Scout den mother than the former head of the FBI.”15 Webster was disparaged by top officers like Clarridge, who had come to know his risk-averse management style.

“Since we at CTC had been working so closely with the FBI on terrorism,” Clarridge told me, “we had already heard a lot about Webster, and none of it was good. From the street level to the top echelons, they detested Webster because they saw him as an egotistical lightweight, a social climber, and a phony.”16

Webster had no background in foreign policy or world affairs. While Casey was judged inside the CIA as a kindred risk-taking spirit, especially by the covert teams, Webster’s cautious nature was exacerbated by an overwhelming fear of failure coupled with his strict insistence on not bending the letter of the law.

One of Webster’s first moves was to replace the CIA’s popular George Lauder, who had spent twenty years in the Operations Directorate, with William Baker, an FBI colleague. It was such an unpopular choice that no one clapped when Baker was introduced in the CIA’s main auditorium. When Baker told the agents they should study a new house manual called “Briefing Congress” and embrace the four “C’s”—candor, completeness, consistency, and correctness—many in the audience audibly snickered. “It was vintage FBI,” one agent in attendance told me. “It was what we expected.”17

Baker was not the only FBI colleague Webster brought along. Peggy Devine, his longtime executive secretary, had earned the nickname “Dragon Lady” at the Bureau. Also, his FBI chief of staff, John Hotis, and a group of “special assistants” made up what CIA employees derisively dubbed either the “FBI Mafia” or the “munchkins.” Some in the FBI contingent had Ivy League law degrees, but none had any intelligence background. And they effectively sealed Webster off from the rest of the Agency.

There was a widespread sentiment inside the CIA that the FBI had gone from being a partner to an avowed enemy.

Meanwhile, the FBI investigation that had begun under Webster into the Iranian arms sales had kicked into high gear. FBI agents raided Oliver North’s office and retrieved key documents his secretary did not have time to shred. Another FBI team served an unprecedented warrant at CIA headquarters in Langley, VA. The agents ordered Clair George, the CIA deputy director for operations, to open his office safe. It contained a document, with two of George’s fingerprints, that showed he had misled Congress. That produced a ten-count indictment against George and the removal of three CIA station chiefs. As for Clarridge, a few days before the statute of limitations expired, he was indicted on seven counts of perjury and making false statements to Congress. Inside the CTC, many employees wore T-shirts with slogans supporting him.

There was a widespread sentiment inside the CIA that the FBI had gone from being a recalcitrant partner to an avowed enemy whose purpose was to destroy the Agency’s hierarchy and its way of conducting its operations. As Clarridge noted:

We could probably have overcome Webster’s ego, his lack of experience with foreign affairs, his small-town-America world perspective, and even his yuppier-than-thou arrogance. What we couldn’t overcome was that he was a lawyer. All his training as a lawyer and a judge was that you didn’t do illegal things. He never could accept that this is exactly what the CIA does when it operates abroad. We break the laws of other countries. It’s how we collect information. It’s why we’re in business. Webster had an insurmountable problem with the raison d’être of the organization he was brought in to run.18

Clarridge was not the only one who thought Webster’s legal background was a handicap for running a spy agency. Pakistan’s President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq once asked Webster how it was possible for a lawyer to head the CIA. Webster did not answer.

Even before Clarridge’s indictment, Webster had officially reprimanded him for his role in Iran–Contra and after promising to reassign him as the CTC director, had forced him to resign in June 1988. I spoke to nearly a dozen former operatives from the Directorate of Operations who confirmed, on background only, that the anger Clarridge expressed on the record about Webster was widespread throughout the CIA. The Agency had long prided itself on an unwritten code—Loyalty Up and Loyalty Down—and many CIA veterans felt that Webster had trashed that by going after agents like Clarridge.

It got worse for Webster when he tasked his chief of staff, John Hotis, and Nancy McGregor, a 28-year-old law clerk who had been one of his FBI administrative assistants, to rewrite the CIA’s regulations for covert operations. Webster had infuriated many intelligence agents when he compared covert ops to the FBI’s use of undercover agents in criminal probes. Under the new Webster rules, lawyers had to sign off on all covert plans. There was a long checklist required to get operations approved. The informal and fast-moving process of the past was history. Webster argued his rules instilled long overdue accountability in the Agency’s covert work. It was, countered CIA officials, the same framework that existed at the FBI and that had hindered the Bureau’s investigations for decades.

With the new rules in place over covert operations and having purged the CIA of half a dozen senior officers connected to Iran–Contra, some of the criticism of Webster started going public. Tom Polgar, a retired agent, wrote in an opinion editorial in The Washington Post that “the new watchword at the agency seems to be ‘Do No Harm’—which is fine for doctors but may not encourage imagination and initiative in secret operations.”19

Meanwhile, William Sessions, a former federal judge from San Antonio and a close friend of Webster’s had become the new FBI director. With encouragement from Webster, Sessions expanded the number of FBI agents serving in counterintelligence abroad. Instead of welcoming the help, it further irritated the CIA leadership who considered the FBI as inept competitors who were only likely to compromise intelligence operations.

Webster thought he could reform the Agency to share information with the FBI. In April 1988, Webster announced a totally redesigned Counterintelligence unit. Headquartered in Langley, VA, its mission was to teach CIA and FBI agents how to compile, organize, and share data that would be useful to both agencies. The first test of that cooperation happened in December 1988 when 270 people were killed when a bomb blew up Pan Am Flight 103 above Lockerbie, Scotland. The U.S. government did not disclose that three Middle East-based CIA officers flying home for the Christmas holidays were among the victims.

Israel’s Mossad intelligence had warned the CIA two weeks earlier. The CIA had never passed the warning to the FBI.

Israel’s Mossad intelligence had warned the CIA two weeks earlier that they had intercepted information that a Pan Am flight from Frankfurt to the U.S. would be bombed in December. Pan Am Flight 103 was a Frankfurt to U.S.-bound plane. The CIA had never passed the warning to the FBI.

Webster’s redesigned CTC was put in charge of the U.S. investigation. In Scotland, more than a thousand police, soldiers, and bomb technicians scoured hundreds of square miles around the crash site. They bagged thousands of pieces of evidence, and in that haul was a fragment of a circuit board the size of a small fingernail. It matched an identical board found in a bomb-timing mechanism used in a 1986 terror attack in the West African country of Togo. CTC tracked the circuit board to a consignment of timers manufactured by a Swiss company that had sold twenty of them to Libya.

Although progress had been made on finding out how the bombing was done, according to one U.S. official, it was not very long before the investigation was a “chaotic mess” of noncooperation.20 Within a few months, there were competing theories about who was responsible. The CIA blamed Iran for hiring a Damascus-based radical Palestinian faction to carry out the operation. Taking out the American plane was, according to Vincent Cannistraro, a CIA’s senior CTC officer, payback for the mistaken 1988 downing of an Iranian Airbus by a U.S. naval cruiser, which resulted in 290 civilian deaths. Cannistraro had become, after Clarridge’s departure, the major power inside CTC and its driving force.

Meanwhile, the FBI thought Libya was the sole culprit, seeking revenge for the U.S. bombings in 1986.

Both agencies leaked their internal disagreements. Anonymous CIA officials were quoted in the press mocking the FBI’s analytical reports on the bombing as being “like essays from grade school,” whereas an unidentified FBI agent said that “CIA believe they have a lot, but it’s a Styrofoam brick.”21

Even when the Libyans became prime suspects, the two agencies fought over what should be done. The FBI wanted to wait for indictments and then arrest those charged. The CIA’s Webster, not surprisingly, supported the letter-of-the-law approach. But inside the CIA, especially in CTC, agents bristled that the Libyans were beyond the reach of U.S. law. Cannistraro argued for “removing” the suspects at any cost, even if that meant assassinating them or allowing Israel to do it on behalf of the U.S. But Webster would broker no such discussion. Frustrated with Webster’s limitations on covert ops, Cannistraro abruptly resigned in September 1990, just before Iraq invaded Kuwait. “The CTC is starting to look too much like the FBI,” he disparagingly told a former colleague after giving Webster his notice.22

A 1990 Senate panel concluded that Webster’s efforts had failed to overcome the extensive fragmentation and competition in the government’s counterintelligence efforts. The panel concluded that it was virtually impossible to cure the dysfunction by merely insisting that the CIA and FBI drop their long-standing mutual distrust and dislike. Only by completely recreating America’s intelligence and crime-fighting apparatus, the panel suggested, might it be possible to make substantive progress.

The CIA and FBI have overhauled their training … but skepticism that there is any benefit to partnering remains a significant obstacle.

The 9/11 Commission made a series of recommendations for changes that could finally force the CIA and FBI and other elements of the national security apparatus to work together more effectively. There are thousands of internal intelligence documents released since 2001, as well as Inspector General Reports from the CIA and FBI, that have given great lip service to the “imperative of reform.”

The result over two decades later?

The CIA and FBI have overhauled their training of intelligence analysts, streamlined the management of the information collected and analyzed, and improved the coordination between the analytical units and operational teams. There are now redundancies designed to prevent intel from falling between the cracks. And there is greater accountability for failures.

Do the CIA and FBI work together better today than before 9/11?

What about the cooperation between the premier American law enforcement/intelligence agencies? Conversations with half a dozen currently serving and former officials from both the CIA and FBI give a mixed picture at best. The deep animosity from the Clarridge/Webster days is now mostly history. No one thinks of the other agency as a threat to its own survival. But skepticism that there is any benefit to be had by partnering with one another remains a significant obstacle to cooperation. CIA officers continue largely to view the FBI as highly paid police officers who are hobbled by Department of Justice lawyers. The FBI officials to whom I spoke pointed repeatedly to the CIA’s approval of torture for 9/11 detainees as a key reason the main terrorists at Guantanamo Bay have not gone to trial. “Maybe they would be better off,” one former FBI Counterintelligence officer told me, “if they had lawyers who told them when they were crossing the line instead of just rubber stamping every wild idea coming out of Langley.”

Do the CIA and FBI work together better today than before 9/11? Yes, in many respects. They have often had little choice with the rapid growth of more than 200 Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) since 1980. In the JTTFs, the FBI and CIA are only two of more than 30 law enforcement and intelligence agencies supplying analysts, investigators, linguists, and hostage rescue specialists, to combat international terrorism directed at the homeland. Since they do not run the operations, their sniping at each other is not as evident. But that does not mean the JTTFs are free of finger pointing between all the partners. For instance, a 2009 arrest of three Afghans in a terror plot in New York City was widely heralded as a law enforcement triumph, but I discovered that FBI agents were privately furious at New York Police Department detectives for blowing a chance to snare a larger terror sleeper cell.23

Infighting among those tasked with enforcement makes it exponentially more difficult.

The rivalry for control of operations and investigations between the two 900-pound security gorillas in the U.S.—the CIA and FBI—continues. So does the desire to take credit for successful missions and put the blame on the other for failures. There are billions in annual budgets at stake and the reputation each seems jealously to guard. “They don’t make us better,” one retired CIA analyst contended in a conversation I had this summer. “They just compromise what we do best.”

That attitude cannot be eliminated through any series of bureaucratic reforms suggested by presidential commissions and Congressional hearings. It is a shame, however, because the failure of the country’s two premier national security agencies to work together seamlessly to fight terrorism and today’s enormous criminal cartels only works to the benefit of America’s many enemies. Crime and punishment is a difficult enough subject when the targets are international terrorists. However, infighting among those tasked with enforcement makes it exponentially more difficult.

As a sociologist interested in the scientific study of social life, I’ve long been concerned about the ideological bent of much of sociology. Many sociologists reject outright the idea of sociology as a science and instead prefer to engage in political activism. Others subordinate scientific to activist goals, and are unclear as to what they believe sociology’s purpose should be. Still others say different things depending on the audience.

The American Sociological Association (ASA) does the latter. In December 2023, the Board of Governors of Florida’s state university system removed an introductory sociology course from the list of college courses that could be taken to fulfil part of the general education requirement. It seemed clear that sociology’s reputation for progressive politics played a role in the decision. Florida’s Commissioner of Education, for example, wrote that sociology had been hijacked by political activists.1 The ASA denied the charge and went on to declare that sociology is “the scientific study of social life, social change, and the social causes and consequences of human behavior.”

While that definition certainly aligns with my vision of what sociology should be, it contrasts with another recent statement made by the ASA itself when announcing last year’s annual conference theme. The theme is “Intersectional Solidarities: Building Communities of Hope, Justice, and Joy,” which, as the ASA website explains, “emphasizes sociology as a form of liberatory praxis: an effort to not only understand structural inequities, but to intervene in socio-political struggles.”2 It’s easy to see how Florida’s Commissioner of Education somehow got the idea that sociology has become infused with ideology.

The ASA’s statement in defense of sociology as the science of social life seems insincere. That’s unfortunate—we really do need a science of social life if we’re going to understand the social world better. And we need to understand the world better if we’re going to effectively pursue social justice. The ASA’s brand of sociology as liberatory praxis leads not only to bad sociology, but also to misguided efforts to change the world. As I’ve argued in my book How to Think Better About Social Justice, if we’re going to change the world for the better, we need to make use of the insights of sociology. But bad sociology only makes things worse.

Contemporary social justice activism tends to draw from a sociological perspective known as critical theory. Critical theory is a kind of conflict theory, wherein social life is understood as a struggle for domination. It is rooted in Marxist theory, which viewed class conflict as the driver of historical change and interpreted capitalist societies in terms of the oppression of wage laborers by the owners of the means of production. Critical theory understands social life similarly, except that domination and oppression are no longer simply about economic class but also race, ethnicity, gender, religion, sexuality, gender identity, and much more.

There are two problems with social justice efforts informed by critical theory. First, this form of social justice—often called “critical social justice” by supporters and “wokeism” by detractors—deliberately ignores the insights that might come from other sociological perspectives. Critical theory, like conflict theory more broadly, is just one of many theoretical approaches in a field that includes a number of competing paradigms. It’s possible to view social life as domination and oppression, but it’s also possible to view it as a network of relationships, or as an arena of rational transactions similar to a marketplace, or as a stage where actors play their parts, or as a system where the different parts contribute to the functioning of the whole. If you’re going to change the social world, it’s important to have some understanding of how social life works, but there’s no justification for relying exclusively on critical theory.

The second problem is that, unlike most other sociological perspectives, critical theory assumes an oppositional stance toward science. This is partly because critical theory is intended not just to describe and explain the world, but rather to change it—an approach the ASA took in speaking of sociology as “liberatory praxis.” However, the problem isn’t just that critical theory prioritizes political goals over scientific ones, it’s that it also sees science as oppressive and itself in need of critique and dismantling. The claim is that scientific norms and scientific knowledge—just like other norms and other forms of knowledge in liberal democratic societies—have been constructed merely to serve the interests of the powerful and enable the oppression of the powerless.

Critical theory makes declarations about observable aspects of social reality, but because of its political commitments and its hostile stance toward scientific norms, it tends to act more like a political ideology than a scientific theory. As one example, consider Ibram X. Kendi’s assertions about racial disparities. Kendi, a scholar and activist probably best known for his book How to Be an Antiracist, has said, “As an anti-racist, when I see racial disparities, I see racism.”3 The problem with this approach is that while racism is one possible cause of racial disparities (and often the main cause!), in science, our theories need to be testable, and they need to be tested. Kendi doesn’t put his idea forward as a proposition to be tested but instead as a fundamental truth not to be questioned. In any true science, claims about social reality must be formulated into testable hypotheses. And then we need to actually gather the evidence. Usually what we find is variation, and this case is likely to be no different. That is, we’re likely to find that in some contexts racism has more of a causal role than in others.

We often want easy answers to social problems. Social justice activists might be inclined to turn to would-be prophets who proclaim what seems to be the truth, rather than to scientists who know we have to do the legwork required to understand and address things. Yes, science gives us imperfect knowledge, and it points to the difficulties we encounter when changing the world… but since we live in a world of tradeoffs, there are seldom easy answers to social problems. We can’t create a perfect world—utopia isn’t possible—so any kind of social justice rooted in reality must try to increase human flourishing while recognizing that not all problems can be eliminated, certainly not easily or quickly.

What does it all mean? For one, we should be much more skeptical about one of critical theory’s central claims—that the norms and institutions of liberal democratic societies are simply disguised tools of oppression. Do liberal ideals such as equality before the law, due process, free speech, free markets, and individual rights simply mask social inequalities so as to advance the interests of the powerful? Critical theorists don’t really subject this claim to scientific scrutiny. Instead, they take the presence of inequalities in liberal societies as selfsufficient evidence that liberalism is responsible for these failures. Yet any serious attempt to pursue social justice informed by scientific understanding of the world would involve comparing liberal democratic societies with other societies, both present and past.

Scientific sociology can’t tell us the best way to organize a society and social justice involves making tradeoffs among competing values. We may never reach a consensus on what kind of society is best, but we should consider the possibility that liberal democracies seem to provide the best framework we yet know of for pursuing social justice effectively. At the very least, they provide mechanisms for peacefully managing disputes in an imperfect world.

Fernanda Pirie is Professor of the Anthropology of Law at the University of Oxford. She is the author of  The Anthropology of Law and has conducted fieldwork in the mountains of Ladakh and the grasslands of eastern Tibet. She earned a DPhil in Social Anthropology from Oxford in 2002, an MSc in Social Anthropology at University College London in 1998, and a BA in French and Philosophy from Oxford in 1986. She spent almost a decade practicing as a barrister at the London bar. Her most recent book is  The Rule of Laws: A 4,000-Year Quest to Order the World.

Skeptic: Why do we need laws? Can’t we all just get along?

Fernanda Pirie: That assumes we need laws to resolve our disputes. The fact is, there are plenty of societies that do perfectly well without formal laws, and that’s one of the questions I explore in my work: Who makes the law, and why? Not all sophisticated societies have created formal laws. For instance, the ancient Egyptians managed quite well without them. The Maya and the Aztec, as far as we can tell, had no formal laws. Plenty of much smaller communities and groups also functioned perfectly well without them. So, using law to address disputes is just one particular social approach. I don’t think it’s a matter of simply getting along; I do believe it’s inevitable that people will come into conflict, but there are many ways to resolve it. Law is just one of those methods.

It’s inevitable that people will come into conflict, but there are many ways to resolve it. Law is just one of those methods.

Skeptic: Let’s talk about power and law. Are laws written and then an authority is needed to enforce them, which creates hierarchy in society? Or does hierarchy develop for some other reason, and then law follows to deal with that particular structure?

FP: I wouldn’t say there’s always a single direction of development. In ancient India, for example, a hierarchy gradually developed over several thousand years during the first millennium BCE, with priests—eventually the Brahmins—and the king at the top. This evolved into the caste system we know today. The laws came later in that process. Legal texts, written by the Brahmins, outlined rules that everyone—including kings—had to follow.

Skeptic: So, the idea of writing laws down or literally chiseling them in stone is to create something tangible to refer to.. Not just, “Hey, don’t you remember, I said six months ago you shouldn’t do that?” Instead, it’s formalized, and everyone has a copy. We all know what it is, so you can hold people morally accountable for their actions.

FP: Exactly. That distinction makes a big difference. Every society has customs and norms; they often have elders or other sources of authority, who serve as experts in maintaining their traditions. But when it’s just a matter of, “This is what we’ve always done—don’t you remember?” some people can conveniently forget. Once something is written down, though, it gains authority. You can refer to the exact words, which opens up different possibilities for exercising power. “Look, these are the laws—everyone must know and follow them.” But it equally creates opportunities for holding people accountable.

Skeptic: So it’s a matter of “If you break the law, then these are the consequences.” It’s almost like a logic problem—if P, then Q. There’s an internal logic to it, a causal reasoning where B follows A, so we assume A causes B. Is something like that going on, cognitively?

Once something is written down, it gains authority. You can refer to the exact words, which opens up different possibilities for exercising power.

FP: Well, that cause-and-effect form is a feature of many legal systems, but not all of them. It’s very prominent in the Mesopotamian tradition, which influenced both Jewish law and Islamic law, and eventually Roman law—the legal systems that dominate the world today. It’s associated with the specification of rights—if someone does this, they are entitled to that kind of compensation, or this must follow from that. But the laws that developed in China and India were quite different. The Chinese had a more top-down, punitive system, focused on discipline and punishment. It was still an “if-then” system, but more about, “If you do this wrong, you shall be punished.” It was very centralized and controlling. In Hindu India, the laws were more about individual duty: this is what you ought to do to be a good Hindu. If you’re a king, you should resolve disputes in a particular way. The distinctions between these systems aren’t always sharp, but the casuistic form is indeed a particular feature of certain legal traditions.

Laws have never simply been rules. They’ve created intricate maps for civilization. Far from being purely concrete or mundane, laws have historically presented a social vision, promised justice, invoked a moral order ordained by God (or the Gods), or enshrined the principles of democracy and human rights. And while laws have often been instruments of power, they’ve just as often been the means of resisting it. Yet, the rule of law is neither universal nor inevitable. Some rulers have avoided submitting themselves to the constraints of law—Chinese emperors did so for 2,000 years. The rule of law has a long history, and we need to understand that history to appreciate what law is, what it does, and how it can rule our world for better or worse.

The rule of law is neither universal nor inevitable. Some rulers have avoided submitting themselves to the constraints of law.

Skeptic: In some ways it seems like we are seeking what the economist Thomas Sowell calls cosmic justice, where in the end everything is settled and everyone gets their just desserts. One purpose of the Christian afterlife is that all old scores are settled. God will judge everything and do so correctly. So, even if you think you got away with something, in the long run you didn’t. There’s an eye in the sky that sees all, and that adds an element of divine order to legal systems.

FP: Absolutely, and that characterizes many of the major legal systems, especially those associated with religion. Take the Hindu legal system—it’s deeply tied to a sense of cosmological order. Everyone must follow their Dharma, and the Brahmins set up the rules to help people follow their Dharma, so they can achieve a better rebirth. Similarly, Islamic Sharia law, which has had a poor reputation in recent times, is seen as following God’s path for the world, guiding people on how they should behave in accordance with a divine plan. Even the Chinese, who historically had a more top-down and punitive system, claimed that their emperors held the Mandate of Heaven—that’s why people had to obey them and their laws. They were at the top of the pyramid because of such divine authority.

Of course, there have also been laws that are much more pragmatic—rules that merchants follow to maintain their networks, or village regulations. Not all law is tied to a cosmic vision, but many of the most impressive and long-lasting legal systems have been.

Islamic Sharia law is seen as following God’s path for the world. Even the Chinese, who historically had a more top-down and punitive system, claimed that their emperors held the Mandate of Heaven.

Skeptic: The Arab–Israeli conflict can be seen as two people holding a deed to the same piece of land, each claiming, “The title company that guarantees my ownership is God and His Holy Book.” Unfortunately, God has written more than one Holy Book, leading both sides to claim divine ownership, with no cosmic court to settle the dispute.

FP: That’s been the case throughout history—overlapping legal and political jurisdictions. Many people today are worried about whether the nation-state, as we know it, is breaking down, especially with the rise of supranational laws and transnational legal systems. But it’s always been like this—there have always been overlaps between religious laws, political systems, and social norms. The Middle East is a perfect example, with different religious communities living side by side. It hasn’t always been easy, but over time, people have developed ways of coexisting. The current political battles in the Middle East are part of this ongoing tension.

Skeptic: In your writing, you offer this great example from the Code of Hammurabi, 1755–1750 BC. It is the longest, best-organized, best-preserved legal text from the ancient Near East, written in the Old Akkadian dialect of Babylonian, and inscribed on a stone stele discovered in 1901.

“These are the judicial decisions that Hammurabi, the King, has established to bring about truth and a just order in his land.” That’s the text you quoted. “Let any wronged man who has a lawsuit”—interesting how the word ‘lawsuit’ is still in use today—”come before my image as King of Justice and have what is written on my stele read to him so that he may understand my precious commands, and let my stele demonstrate his position so that he may understand his case and calm his heart. I am Hammurabi, King of Justice, to whom Shamash has granted the truth.”

Many people today are worried about whether the nation-state, as we know it, is breaking down.

Then you provide this specific example: “If a man cuts down a tree in another man’s date orchard without permission, he shall pay 30 shekels of silver. If a man has given a field to a gardener to plant as a date orchard, when the gardener has planted it, he shall cultivate it for four years, and in the fifth year, the owner and gardener shall divide the yield equally, with the owner choosing first.”

This sounds like a modern business contract, or today’s U.S. Uniform Commercial Code.

FP: Indeed, it’s about ensuring fairness among the farmers, who were the backbone of Babylon’s wealth at the time. I also find it fascinating that there are laws dealing with compensation if doctors kill or injure their patients. We often think of medical negligence as a modern issue, but it’s been around for 4,000 years.

Skeptic: But how did they determine the value of, say, a stray cow or cutting down the wrong tree? How did they arrive at the figure of 30 shekels?

FP: That’s a really interesting question. These laws were meant to last, and even in a relatively stable society, the value of money would have changed over time. People have studied this and asked how anyone could follow these laws for the hundreds of years that the stele stood and people referred to it. My view is that these laws were more exemplary—they probably reflected actual cases, decisions that judges were making at the time.

Laws have never simply been rules; they have created intricate maps for civilization, presented a social vision, promised justice, invoked a moral order, and enshrined principles of democracy and human rights.

Although Hammurabi wrote down his rules, he didn’t expect people to apply them exactly as written, as we do with modern legal codes. Instead, they gave a sense of the kind of compensation that would be appropriate for different wrongs or crimes—guidelines, not hard rules. Hammurabi likely collected decisions from various judicial systems and grafted them into a set of general laws, but they still retain the flavor of individual judgments.

Skeptic: Is there a sense of “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth”—where the punishment fits the crime, more or less?

The Code of Hammurabi inscribed on a basalt slab on display at the Louvre, Paris. (Photo by Mbzt via Wikimedia)

FP: Absolutely. Hammurabi was trying to ensure that justice was done by laying out rules for appropriate responses to specific wrongs, ensuring fairness in compensation. But it’s crucial to understand that the famous phrase, “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth,” which appears first in Hammurabi’s code and later in the laws of the Book of Exodus, wasn’t about enforcing revenge. Even though there’s a thousand-year gap between Hammurabi and the Bible, scholars believe this rule was about limiting revenge, not encouraging it. It meant that if someone sought revenge, it had to be proportional—an eye for an eye—but no more.

In other words, they wanted to prevent cycles of violence that arise from feuds. In a feuding society, someone steals a sheep, then someone retaliates by stealing a cow, and then someone tries to take an entire herd of sheep. The feud keeps getting bigger and bigger. So, the “eye for an eye” rule was a pragmatic approach in a society where feuding was common. It was meant to keep things under control.

Skeptic: From the ruler’s perspective, a feud is a net loss, regardless of who’s right or wrong.

FP: Feuding is a very common way of resolving disputes, especially among nomadic people. The idea, which makes a lot of sense, is that if you’re a nomadic pastoralist, your wealth is mobile—it’s your animals that have feet, which can be moved around. That also makes it easy to steal. If you’re a farmer, your wealth is tied to your land, so someone can’t run off with it. Since nomads are particularly vulnerable to theft, having a feuding system acts as a defense mechanism. It’s like saying, “If you steal my sheep, I’ll come and steal your cow.” You still see this in parts of the world, such as eastern Tibet, where I’ve done fieldwork. So, yes, kings and centralized rulers want to stop feuds because they represent a net loss. They want to put a lid on things and so establish a more centralized system of justice. This is exactly what Hammurabi was trying to do, and you see similar efforts in early Anglo- Saxon England, and all over the world.

Another interesting point is that every society has something to say about homicide. It’s so important that they have to lay out a response. However, I don’t think we should assume these laws were meant to stop people from killing each other. The fact is, we don’t refrain from murder because the law tells us not to. We don’t kill because we believe it’s wrong—except in the rare cases where morality has somehow become twisted and self-help justice occurs and people take the law into their own hands. The law, in this case, is more about what the social response should be once a killing has occurred. Should there be compensation? Punishment? What form should it take?

Every society needs some system to restore order and a sense of justice.

Skeptic: Is this why we need laws that are enforced regularly, fairly, justly, and consistently, so people don’t feel the need to take matters into their own hands?

FP: I’d put it a bit more broadly: we need systems of justice, which can include mediation systems. In a village in Ladakh—part of northern India with Tibetan populations where I did fieldwork—they didn’t have written laws, but they had very effective ways of resolving conflicts. They put a lot of pressure on the parties to calm down, shake hands, and settle the dispute. It’s vastly different from the nomads I worked with later in eastern Tibet, who had a very different approach. But both systems were extremely effective, and there was a strong moral sense that people shouldn’t fight or even get angry. It’s easy to look at these practices and say they’re not justice, especially when serious things like injuries, killings, or even rape are settled in this way. But for these villages, maintaining peace and order in the community was paramount, and it worked for them.

Every society needs some system to restore order and a sense of justice. What constitutes justice can vary greatly—sometimes it’s revenge, sometimes it’s about restoring order. Laws can be part of that system, and in complex societies, it becomes much harder to rely on bottom-up systems of mediation or conciliation. That’s where having written laws and judges becomes very useful.

Skeptic: In communities without laws or courts, do they just agree, “Tomorrow we’re going to meet at noon, and we’ll all sit down and talk this out?”

FP: Essentially, yes. In the communities I spent time with, it was the headman’s duty to call a village meeting, and everyone was expected to attend and help resolve the issue. In a small community like that, you absolutely could do it.

Skeptic: And if you don’t show up?

FP: There’s huge social pressure for people to play their part in village politics and contribute to village funds and activities.

Skeptic: And if they don’t, then what? Are they gossiped about, shunned, or shamed?

FP: Yes—all of those things, in various ways.

Skeptic: Let’s talk about religious laws. You mentioned Sharia, and from a Western perspective, it’s often seen as a disaster because it’s been hyped up and associated with terrorism. Can you explain how religious laws differ from secular laws?

FP: I’m wondering how much one can generalize here. I’m thinking of the religious laws of Hindu India, Islamic laws, Jewish laws, and I suppose Canon law in Europe—Christian law. I hesitate to generalize, though.

Skeptic: What often confounds modern minds are the very specific laws in Leviticus—like which food you can eat, which clothes you can wear, and how to deal with adultery, which would certainly seem to concern the affected spouse. But why should the state—or whatever governing laws or body—even care about such specific issues?

FP: This highlights a crucial point. In Jewish, Hindu, and Islamic law, the legal and moral spheres are part of the same domain. A lot of these laws are really about guiding people on how to live moral lives according to dharma, God’s will, or divine command. The distinction we often make between law and religion, or law and morality, doesn’t apply in those contexts. The laws are about instructing people on how to live properly, which can involve family relations, contracts, land ownership, but also prayer and ritual.

As for the laws in Leviticus, they’ve puzzled people for a long time. They seem to be about purity and how Jews should live as good people, following rules of cleanliness, which partly distinguished them from other tribes.

Skeptic: What exactly is Sharia law?

FP: Sharia literally means “God’s path for the world.” It’s not best translated as “law” in the way we understand it. It’s more about following the path that God has laid out for us, a path we can’t fully comprehend but must do our best to interpret. The Quran is a guide, but it doesn’t lay out in detail everything we should do. The early Islamic scholars—who were very important in its formative days—studied the Quran and the Hadith (which tradition maintains records the Prophet’s words and actions) to work out just how Muslims should live according to God’s command. They developed texts called fiqh, which are what we might call legal texts, going into more detail about land ownership, commercial activities, legal disputes, inheritance, and charitable trusts.

Islamic law has very little to say about crime.

Islamic law has very little to say about crime. That’s one misconception. People tend to think it’s all about harsh punishments, but the Quran mentions crime only briefly. That was largely the business of the caliphs—the rulers—who were responsible for maintaining law and order. Sharia is much more concerned with ritual and morality, and with civil matters like inheritance and charitable trusts.

Skeptic: Much of biblical legal and moral codes have changed over time. Christianity went through the Enlightenment. But Islam didn’t seem to go through a similar process. Is that a fair characterization?

FP: I’d say that’s partly right. But I’ve never thought about it in exactly those terms. In any legal tradition, there’s resistance to change—that’s kind of the point of law. It’s objective and fixed, so any change requires deep thought. In the Islamic world, there’s been a particularly strong sense that it’s not for people to change or reinterpret God’s path. The law was seen as something fixed.

But in practice, legal scholars, called muftis, were constantly adapting and changing legal practices to suit different contexts and environments. That’s one of the real issues today—Islamic law has become a symbol of resistance to the West, appealing to fundamentalism by going “back to the beginning.”

Skeptic: Let’s talk about stateless law of tribes, villages, networks, and gangs. For example, we tend to think of pirates as lawless, chaotic psychopaths who just randomly raided commerce and people. But, in fact, they were pretty orderly. They had their own constitutions. Each ship had a contract that everyone had to sign, outlining the rules. There’s even this interesting analysis of the Jolly Roger (skull and crossbones) flag. Why fly that flag and alert another ship that you’re coming? In his book The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates, the economist Peter Leeson argued that it is a signal: “We’re dangerous pirates, and we’re coming to take your stuff, so you might as well hand it over to us, and we won’t kill you.” It’s better for the pirates because they can get the loot without the violence, and it’s better for the victims because they get to keep their lives. Occasionally, you do have to be brutal and make sure your reputation as a badass pirate gets a lot of publicity, so people know that when they see the flag, they should just surrender. But overall, it was a pretty orderly system.

FP: Yes, but it’s only kind of organized. That’s the point. For example, in The Godfather Don Corleone was essentially making up his own rules, using his power to tell others what he wanted. That’s the nature of the Mafia—yes, they had omertà (the rule of silence) and rules about treating each other’s wives with respect, but these rules were never written down. Alleged members who went on trial even denied—under oath—that any kind of organization or rules existed. This was particularly true with the Sicilian Mafia. The denial served two purposes: first, it protected them from outside scrutiny, and second, it allowed powerful figures like Don Corleone—or the real-life Sicilian bosses—to bend the rules whenever they saw fit. If the rules aren’t written down, it’s harder to hold them accountable. They can simply break the rules and impose their will.

Skeptic: Let’s discuss international law. In 1977, David Irving published Hitler’s War, in which he claimed that Hitler didn’t really know about the Holocaust. Rather, Irving blamed it on Himmler specifically, and other high-ranking Nazis in general, along with their obedient underlings. Irving even offered $1,000 to anyone who could produce an order from Hitler saying, “I, Adolf Hitler, hereby order the extermination of European Jewry.” Of course, no such order exists. This is an example of how you shift away from a legal system. The Nazis tried to justify what they were doing with law, but at some point, you can’t write down, “We’re going to kill all the Jews.” That can’t be a formal law.

FP: Exactly. Nazi Germany had a complex legal case, and I’m not an expert on it, but you can see at least a couple legal domains at play. First, they were concerned with international law, especially in how they conducted warfare in the Soviet Union. They at least tried to make a show of following international laws of war. Second, operationally, they created countless laws to keep Germany and the war effort functioning. They used law instrumentally. But when they felt morally uncomfortable with what they were doing, the obvious move was to avoid writing anything down. If it wasn’t documented, it wasn’t visible, and so it became much harder to hold anyone accountable.

Nazi Germany had a complex legal case. Operationally, they created countless laws to keep Germany and the war effort functioning. They used law instrumentally.

Skeptic: During the Nuremberg trials, the defense’s argument was often, “Well, we lost, but if we had won, this would have been legal.” So they claimed it wasn’t fair to hold these trials since they violated the well-established principle of ex post facto, because there was no international law at the time. National sovereignty and self-determination was the norm, so they were saying, in terms of the law of nations, “We were just doing what we do, and it’s none of your business.”

View from above of the judges' bench at the International Military Tribunal in Nuremberg. (Source: National Archives and Records Administration, College Park.)

FP: Legally speaking, the Nuremberg trials were both innovative and hugely problematic. The court assumed the power to sit in judgment on what the leaders of independent nation-states were doing within their borders, or at least largely within their borders (the six largest Nazi death camps were in conquered Poland). But it was revolutionary in terms of developing the concepts of genocide, crimes against humanity, and the reach of international law with a humanitarian focus. So yes, it was innovative and legally difficult to justify, but I don’t think anyone involved felt there was any question that what they were doing was the right thing.

Skeptic: It also established the legal precedent that, going forward, any dictator who commits these kinds of atrocities—if captured—would be held accountable.

FP: Exactly. And that eventually led to the movement that set up the International Criminal Court, where Slobodan Milošević was prosecuted, along with other leaders. Although, it’s extremely difficult to bring such people to trial, and ultimately, the process can be more symbolic than practical.

Is the existence of the International Criminal Court really going to stop someone from committing mass atrocities? I doubt it. But it does symbolize to the world that genocide and other heinous crimes will be called out, and people must be held accountable. In a way, it represents the wider moral world we want to live in and the standards we expect nations to uphold.

Skeptic: Skeptic once asked Elon Musk: “When you start the first Mars colony, what documents would you recommend using to establish a governing system? The U.S. Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Humanist Manifesto, Atlas Shrugged, or Against the State, an anarcho-capitalist manifesto?” He responded with, “Direct democracy by the people. Laws must be short, as there is trickery in length. Automatic expiration of rules to prevent death by bureaucracy. Any rule can be removed by 40 percent of the people to overcome inertia. Freedom.”

FP: What a great, specific response! He’s really thought about this. Those are some interesting ideas, and I agree that there’s a lot to be said for direct democracy. The main problem with direct democracy, however, is that when you have too many people it becomes cumbersome. How do you gather everyone in a sensible way? The Athenians and Romans had huge assemblies, which created a sense of equality, and that’s valuable. Another thing I would do, which I’ve discussed with a colleague of mine, Al Pashar, is to rotate positions of power. She did research in Indian villages, and I’ve done work with Tibetans in Ladakh, and we found they had similar systems where every household provided a headman or headwoman in turn.

Rotating power is effective at preventing individuals from concentrating too much power.

You might think rotating leadership wouldn’t work, because some people aren’t good leaders, while others are. Wouldn’t it be better to elect the best person for the job? But we found that rotating power is effective at preventing individuals from concentrating too much power. Yes, it’s good to have competent leaders, but when their family or descendants form an elite, you get a hierarchy and bureaucracy. Rotating power prevents that. That’s what I would do in terms of a political system.

As for laws, I’m less concerned with their length, as long as they are accessible and visible for everyone to read and reference. What’s important is having essential laws clearly posted for all to see. And there should be a good system for resolving disputes—perhaps mediation and conciliation rather than a lot of complex laws, with just a few laws in the background.

Skeptic: We’ll send this to Elon, and maybe he’ll hire you to join his team of social engineers.

FP: Although I’m not sure I want to go to Mars, I’d be happy to advise from the comfort of Oxford!

It’s not at all clear that clothes make the man, or woman. However, it is clear that although animals don’t normally wear clothes (except when people dress them up for their own peculiar reasons), living things are provided by natural selection with a huge and wonderful variety. Their outfits involve many different physical shapes and styles, and they arise through various routes. For now, we’ll look briefly just at eye-catching color among animals, and the two routes by which evolution’s clothier dresses them: sexual selection and warning coloration.

Human observers are understandably taken with the extraordinary appearance of certain animals, notably birds, as well as some amphibians and insects, and, in most cases, the dressed-up elegance of males in particular. In 1860, Darwin confessed to a fellow biologist that looking at the tail of a peacock made him “sick.” Not that Darwin lacked an aesthetic sense, rather, he was troubled that his initial version of natural selection didn’t make room for animals having one. After all, the gorgeous colors and extravagant length of a peacock’s tail threatened what came to be known (by way of Herbert Spencer) as “survival of the fittest,” because all that finery seemed to add up to an immense fitness detriment. A long tail is not only metabolically expensive to grow, but it’s more liable to get caught in shrubbery, while the spectacular colors make its owner more conspicuous to potential predators.

Eventually, Darwin arrived at a solution to this dilemma, which he developed in his 1871 book, The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex. Although details have been added in the ensuing century and a half, his crashing insight—sexual selection—has remained a cornerstone of evolutionary biology.

Sexual selection is sometimes envisaged as different from natural selection, but it isn’t.

Sexual selection is sometimes envisaged as different from natural selection, but it isn’t. Natural selection is neither more nor less than differential reproduction, particularly of individuals and, thereby, genes. It operates in many dimensions, such as obtaining food, avoiding predators, surviving the vagaries of weather, resisting pathogens, and so on. And yet more on! Sexual selection is a subset of natural selection that is so multifaceted and, in some ways, so counterintuitive that it warrants special consideration, as Darwin perceived and subsequent biologists have elaborated.

The bottom line is that in many species, bright coloration—seemingly disadvantageous because it is both expensive to produce and also carries increased risk because of its conspicuousness— nonetheless can contribute to fitness insofar as it is preferentially chosen by females. In such cases, the upside of conspicuous colors increasing mating opportunities compensates for its downsides.

Bright coloration is both expensive to produce and also carries increased risk because of its conspicuousness.

Nothing in science is entirely understood and locked down, but biologists have done a pretty good job with sexual selection. A long-standing question is why, when the sexes are readily distinguishable (termed, sexual dimorphism) it is nearly always the males that are brightly colored. An excellent answer comes from the theory of parental investment, first elaborated by Robert Trivers. The basic idea is that the fundamental biological difference between males and females is not in their genitals but in the defining difference between males and females, namely, how much they invest when it comes to producing offspring. Males are defined as the sex that makes sperm (tiny gametes that are produced in prodigious numbers), while females are egg makers (producing fewer gametes and investing substantially more time and energy on each one).

Sexual selection is responsible for much of the organic world’s Technicolor drama.

As a result, males are often capable of inseminating multiple females because their parental investment in each reproductive effort can be minimal. And so, males in many species, perhaps most, gain an evolutionary advantage by mating with as many females as possible. Because nearly always there are equal numbers of males and females—an important and well-researched statistical phenomenon that deserves its own treatment—this sets up two crucial dynamics. One is male-male competition whereby males hassle with each other for access to the limiting and valuable resource of females and their literal mother load of parental investment. This in turn helps explain the frequent pattern whereby males tend to be more aggressive and outfitted with weapons and an inclination to use them.

The other dynamic, especially important for understanding the evolution of conspicuous male coloration, is female choice (known as epigamic selection). Because females are outfitted with their desirable payload of parental investment, for which males compete, females often (albeit not always) have the opportunity to choose among eager suitors. And they are disposed to go for the brightest, showiest available.

Darwin intuited this dynamic but was uncomfortable about it because at the time, it was felt that aesthetic preferences were a uniquely human phenomenon, not available to animals. Now we know better, in part because the mechanism of such preferences is rather well understood. Sexual selection is responsible for much of the organic world’s Technicolor drama, such as the red of male cardinals, the tails of peacocks, or the rainbow rear ends of mandrill monkeys, all of which make these individuals more appealing to potential mates—probably because, once they are sexually attractive, they become even more attractive according to what evolutionary biologists call the sexy son hypothesis. This involves the implicit genetic promise that females who mate with males who are thus adorned will likely produce sons who will inherit their father’s flashy good looks and will therefore be attractive to the next generation of choosing females, thereby ensuring that the prior generation female who makes such a choice will produce more grandchildren through her sexy sons.

There is a strong correlation between the degree of polygyny (number of females mated on average to a given male), or, more accurately, the ratio of variability in female reproductive success to that of males, and the amount of sexual dimorphism: the extent to which males and females of a given species differ physically. The greater the polygyny (e.g., harem size, as in elephant seals) the greater the sexual dimorphism, while monogamous species tend to be comparatively monomorphic, at least when it comes to body size and weaponry.

In most cases, female reproductive success doesn’t vary greatly among individuals, testimony to the impact of the large parental investment they provide. Female success is maximal when they get all their eggs fertilized and their offspring successfully reared, a number that typically doesn’t differ greatly from one female to another. By contrast, because of their low biologically-mandated parental investment, some males have a very large number of surviving offspring—a function of their success in male-male competition along with female choice—while others are liable to die unsuccessful, nonreproductive, typically troublemaking bachelors.

When it comes to sexual dimorphism in coloration, some mysteries persist.

When it comes to sexual dimorphism in coloration, however, some mysteries persist. Among some socially monogamous species (e.g., warblers), males sport brilliant plumage. This conundrum has been resolved to some extent by the advent of DNA fingerprinting, which has shown that social monogamy doesn’t necessarily correlate with sexual monogamy. Although males of many species have long been known to be sexually randy, verging on promiscuous, females were thought to be more monogamously inclined. However, we now know that females of many species also look for what is termed extra-pair copulations, and it seems likely that this, in turn, has selected for sexy male appearance, which outfits them to potentially take advantage of any out-of-mateship opportunities.

It still isn’t clear why and how such a preference began in the case of particular species (and why it is less developed, or, rarely, even reversed in a few), but once established it becomes what the statistician and evolutionary theorist R.A. Fisher called a “runaway process.” Furthermore, we have some rather good ideas about how this process proceeds.

One is that being impressively arrayed is an indication of somatic and genetic health, which further adds to the fitness payoff when females choose these specimens. Being brightly colored has been shown to correlate with disease resistance, relative absence of parasites, being an especially adroit forager, and the like. In most cases, brightness is physiologically difficult to achieve, which means that dramatic coloration can indicate that such living billboards are also advertising their metabolic muscularity, indicating that they’d likely contain good genetic material as well.

Being brightly colored has been shown to correlate with disease resistance, relative absence of parasites, and being an especially adroit forager.

Another, related hypothesis was more controversial when first proposed by Israeli ornithologist Amotz Zahavi, but has been increasingly supported. This is the concept of “selection for a handicap,” which acknowledges that such traits as bright coloration may well be a handicap in terms of a possessor’s survival. However, Zahavi’s “Handicap Principle” turns a seeming liability into a potential asset insofar as certain traits can be positive indicators of superior quality if their possessors are able to function effectively despite possessing them. It’s as though someone carried a 50-pound backpack and was nonetheless able to finish a race, and maybe even win it! An early criticism of this notion was that the descendants of such handicapped individuals would also likely inherit the handicap, so where’s the adaptive payoff accruing to females who choose to mate with them?

For one, there’s the acknowledged benefit of producing sons who will themselves be preferentially chosen—an intriguing case in which choosy females are more fit not through their sons, but by their grandchildren by way of those sons. In addition, there is the prospect that the choosing female’s daughters would be bequeathed greater somatic viability without their brothers’ bodily handicap. It’s counterintuitive to see bright coloration as a handicap, just as it’s counterintuitive to see a handicap as a potential advantage … but there’s little reason to trust our intuition in the face of nature’s often-confusing complexity.

There’s plenty more to the saga of sexual selection and its generation of flashy animal Beau Brummels, including efforts to explain the many exceptions to the above general patterns. It’s not much of a mystery why mammals don’t partake of flashy dress patterns, given that the class Mammalia generally has poor color vision. But what about primates, who tend to be better endowed? And what of Homo sapiens? Our species sports essentially no genetically-mediated colorful sexual dimorphism. If anything, women tend to be more elaborately adorned than men, at least in Western traditions, a gender difference that seems entirely culture-based. Moreover, among some non-Western social groups, the men get dressed up far more than the women. Clearly, there is much to be resolved, and not just for nonhuman animals.

For another look at dramatic animal patterning, let’s turn to the inverse of sexual attraction, namely, selection for being avoided.

Among the most dramatic looking animals are those whose appearance is “designed” (by natural selection) to cause others—notably predators—to stay away. An array of living things, including some truly spectacular specimens, are downright poisonous, not just in their fangs or stingers but in their very bodies. When they are caterpillars, monarch butterflies feed exclusively on milkweed plants, which contain potent chemical alkaloids that taste disgusting and cause severe digestive upset to animals—especially birds— that eat them, or just venture an incautious nibble.

In the latter case, most birds with a bellyache avoid repeating their mistake although this requires, in turn, that monarchs be sufficiently distinct in their appearance that they carry an easily recognized warning sign. Hence, their dramatic black and bright orange patterning. To the human eye, they are quite lovely. To the eyes of a bird with a terrible taste in its mouth and a pain in its gut, that same conspicuous black and orange is memorable as well, recalling a meal that should not be repeated. It exemplifies “warning coloration,” an easily recalled and highly visible reminder of something to avoid. (It is no coincidence that school buses, ambulances, and fire trucks are also conspicuously colored, although here the goal is enhanced visibility per se, not advertising that these vehicles are bad to eat!)

It is no coincidence that school buses, ambulances, and fire trucks are also conspicuously colored.

The technical term for animal warning signals is aposematic, derived by combining the roots for “apo” meaning away (as in apostate, someone who moves away from a particular belief system) and “sema” meaning signal (as in semaphore). Unpalatable or outright poisonous prey species that were less notable and thus easily forgotten will have achieved little benefit from their protective physiology. And of course, edible animals that are easily recognized would be in even deeper trouble. The adaptive payoff of aposematic coloration even applies if a naïve predator kills a warningly-colored individual, because such sacrifice is biologically rewarded through kin selection when a chastened predator avoids the victim’s genetic relatives.

Many species of bees and wasps are aposematic, as are skunks: once nauseated, or stung, or subjected to stinky skunk spray, twice shy. However, chemically-based shyness isn’t the only way to train a potential predator. Big teeth or sharp claws could do the trick, just by their appearance, without any augmentation. Yet when the threat isn’t undeniably baked into an impressive organ—for example, when it is contained within an animal’s otherwise invisible body chemistry—that’s where a conspicuous, easy-to-remember appearance comes in.

Bright color does triple duty, not only warning off predators and helping acquire mates, but also signaling that brighter and hence healthier individuals are more effective fighters.

Some of the world’s most extraordinary painterly palettes (at least to the human eye) are flaunted by neotropical amphibians known as “poison arrow frogs,” so designated because their skin is so lethally imbued that indigenous human hunters use it to anoint their darts and arrow points. There is no reason, however, for the spectacular coloration of these frogs to serve only as a warning to potential frog-eating predators. As with other dramatically accoutered animals, colorfulness itself often helps attract mates, and not just by holding out the prospect of making sexy sons. Moreover, it has been observed in at least one impressively aposematic amphibian—the scrumptious-looking but highly toxic strawberry poison frog—that bright color does triple duty, not only warning off predators and helping acquire mates, but also signaling to other strawberry poison frogs that brighter and hence healthier individuals are more effective fighters.

Warning coloration occurs in a wide range of living things, evolving pretty much whenever one species develops a deserved reputation for poisonousness, ferocity, or some other form of legitimate threat. Once established, it also opens the door to further evolutionary complexity, including Batesian mimicry, first described in detail by the nineteenth-century English naturalist Henry Walter Bates who researched butterflies in the Amazon rainforest. He noticed that warningly-colored species serve as models, which are then copied by mimics that are selected to piggyback on the reputation established by the former. Brightly banded coral snakes (venomous) are also mimicked, albeit imperfectly, by some species of (nonpoisonous) king snakes. Bees and wasps, with their intimidating stings, have in most cases evolved distinctive color patterns, often bands of black and yellow; they, in turn, are mimicked by a number of other insects that are outfitted with black and yellow bands though they are stingless.

The honestly-clothed signaler can become a model to be mimicked by other species that may not be dangerous to eat but are mistaken for the real (and toxic) McCoy

In short, the honestly-clothed signaler can become a model to be mimicked by other species that may not be dangerous to eat but are mistaken for the real (and toxic) McCoy. Those monarch butterflies, endowed with poisonous, yucky-tasting alkaloids, are mimicked by another species—aptly known as “viceroys” (substitute monarchs)—that bypass the metabolically expensive requirement of dealing with milkweed toxins while benefiting by taking advantage of the monarch’s legitimately acquired reputation.

The plot thickens. Viceroy butterflies (the mimic) and monarchs (the model) can both be successful as long as the mimics aren’t too numerous. A problem arises, however, when viceroys become increasingly abundant, because the more viceroys, the more likely it is that predators will nibble on those harmless mimics rather than being educated by sampling mostly monarchs and therefore trained to avoid their black-and-orange pattern. As a result, the well-being of both monarchs and viceroys is diminished in direct proportion as the latter become abundant, which in turn induces selection of monarchs that are discernibly different from their mimics so as not to be tarred with viceroys’ innocuousness. But the process isn’t done. As the models flutter away from their mimics, the latter can be expected to pursue them, in an ongoing process of evolutionary tag set in motion by the antipredator adaptation represented by the model’s warning coloration, the momentum of which is maintained by the very different challenges—to both the mimic and the model—generated by the system itself.

Frequency-dependent selection is a phenomenon in which the evolutionary success of a biological type varies inversely with its abundance.

This general phenomenon is known as “frequency-dependent selection,” in which the evolutionary success of a biological type varies inversely with its abundance: favored when rare, diminishing as it becomes more frequent. It’s as though certain traits carry within them the seeds of their own destruction, or at least, of keeping their numbers in check, either arriving at a balanced equilibrium or by producing a pattern of pendulum-like fluctuations.

Meanwhile, Batesian mimicry isn’t the only copycat clothing system to have evolved. Plenty of black-and-yellow-banded insects, for example, are equipped with stings, although many other warning patterns are clearly available. Different species could have used their unique pattern of colors as well as alternative designs such as spots and blotches instead of the favored black-and-yellow bands. At work here is yet another evolution-based aposematic phenomenon, known as Müllerian mimicry, after the German naturalist Fritz Müller. In this kind of mimicry, everyone is a model, because different species that are legitimately threatening in their own right converge on the same pattern. Here, the adaptive advantage is that sharing the same warning appearance facilitates learning by predators: it’s easier to learn to avoid one basic warning signal than a variety, different for each species. It had been thought that Batesian and Müllerian mimicry were opposites, with Batesian being dishonest because the mimic is essentially a parasite of its model’s legitimate reputation (those viceroys), whereas Müllerian mimicry exemplifies shared honesty, as with different species of wasps, bees, and hornets, whose fearsome reputations enhance each others.

It is currently acknowledged, however, that often the distinction is not absolute; within a given array of similar-looking Müllerian mimics, for example, not all species are equally honest when it comes to their decorative signaling. The less dangerous representatives are therefore somewhat Batesian. Conversely, among some species, assemblages that have traditionally been thought to involve Batesian mimics—including the iconic monarch–viceroy duo—mimics are often a bit unpleasant in their own right, so both participants are to some degree Müllerian convergers as well.

What to make of all this? In his book, Unweaving the Rainbow, Richard Dawkins gave us some advice, as brilliant as the colors and patterns of the natural world:

After sleeping through a hundred million centuries, we have finally opened our eyes on a sumptuous planet, sparkling with color, bountiful with life. Within decades we must close our eyes again. Isn’t it a noble and enlightened way of spending our time in the sun, to work at understanding the universe and how we have come to wake up in it?

When I first investigated the sharp rise in human deaths due to dogs in the UK, I did not expect the fast-paced chain of events it would spur. A month after publishing a blog post on the dramatic rise in maimings and deaths due to dogs and the single breed that accounted for this unprecedented change, I was asked by the head of a victims’ group to run a campaign to ban the American Bully XL breed in England. From the outset, I was told that such action, from an inactive government, was essentially impossible—one person involved in politics told me I would need to “make it a national issue” before the government would ever consider hearing our concerns, let alone acting on them. Thanks to a small group of dedicated people, relentless persistence and focus on our goal, just 77 days after starting the campaign, the British Prime Minister announced the implementation of our policy to the nation.

The ban was overwhelmingly popular with the public and remains so to this day. Indeed, in recent polling on the chief achievements of the now ex-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the American Bully XL ban was ranked by the public tied for 4th place—higher than a significant tax cut and above increased childcare provision. Why? The British public is known for its love of dogs. Indeed, I have a dog and have grown up with dogs. Why would I spearhead such a campaign?

The Horrifying Problem

It is common to start these kinds of articles with a kind of emotive, engaging story designed to appeal to the reader. I have tried writing such an introduction, but the stories are so horrifying I cannot begin to describe them. Whether it’s the 10-year-old Jack Lis, mauled to death and having injuries so horrific that his mother cannot shake the image from her mind at every moment she closes her eyes, or a 17-month-old girl that lost her life in the most unimaginably terrible circumstances, the stories, the pain of the parents, and the horrifying last moments of those children’s lives are beyond comprehension.

In the past three years, the number of fatal dog attacks in the UK has increased dramatically.1 Between 2001 and 2021 there were an average of 3.3 fatalities per year—with no year reaching above 6. In 2022, 10 people were killed, including 4 children. Optimistic assumptions that 2022 was an outlier did not last and by the summer of 2023, there had already been 5 fatalities. This pattern continued throughout the year. A day before the ban was announced, a man lost his life to two dogs. He had been defending his mother from an attack, and was torn apart in his garden, defending her. A video surfaced online showing people attempting to throw bricks at the animals, but they continued to tear him apart, undaunted. Later in 2023, after the ban was announced, another man was killed by a Bully XL while walking his own dog. In 2024, even after the ban, the owners that have chosen to keep Bully XLs under the strict new conditions, face the threat within their home. As of this writing, two people have died: one, an elderly woman looking after the dogs for her son; the other an owner torn to pieces by the dogs she had raised from puppies.

These are “just” fatalities. Non-lethal dog attacks on humans, often resulting in life-changing injuries, are also on the rise, increasing from 16,000 in 2018, to 22,000 in 2022, and hospitalizations have almost doubled from 4,699 in 2007 to 8,819 in 2021/22, a trend that continued in 2022/23 with 9,342 hospitalizations.2, 3 These cases make for difficult reading. Seventy percent of injuries on children were to the head; nearly 1 in 3 required an overnight stay. In Liverpool (a city of 500,000), there are 4–7 dog bites a week, with most injuries to the face. One doctor recounted dealing with a “near-decapitation.” In 2023 in London, the police were dealing with one dangerous dog incident per day.4 We do not have reliable data on dogs attacking other dogs and pets, but I would wager those have increased as well.

Yet, despite an increase in both the human and dog populations of the UK over the past four decades, fatalities have remained consistently low until just a few short years ago.

What’s going on?

Looking through the list of fatal dog attacks in the UK, a pattern becomes clear.5, 6 In 2021, 2 of the 4 UK fatalities were from a breed known as the American Bully XL. In 2022, 5 out of 10 were American Bullies.7 In 2023, 5 fatalities of 9 were from American Bullies. In 2024, 2 of 3 deaths so far are from American Bully XLs kept by owners after the ban. In other words, without American Bullies, the dog fatalities list would drop to 5 for 2022 (within the usual consistent range we’ve seen for the past four decades), 4 for 2023 and 1 for 2024 so far.

Hospitalizations have almost doubled from 4,699 in 2007 to 8,819 in 2021/22, a trend that continued in 2022/23 with 9,342 hospitalizations. Seventy percent of injuries on children were to the head.

Again, this is “just” fatalities. We do not have accurate recordings of all attacks, but a concerning indication arises from Freedom of Information requests to police forces from across the UK. In August of 2023, 30 percent of all dogs seized by police—often due to violent attacks—were American Bullies. To put this in context, the similarly large Rottweiler breed accounted for just 2 percent.

This pattern is seen elsewhere, in one other breed, the Pitbull—a very, very close relative of the American Bully. In the U.S., for example, 60–70 percent of dog fatalities are caused by Pitbulls and Pitbull crosses.8 The very recent relatives of the American Bully are also responsible for the vast majority of dog-on-dog aggression (including bites, fatalities, etc.).9 In the Netherlands, the majority of dogs seized by police for dog attacks on other dogs were Pitbull types.10 The same is true nearly anywhere you look. In New York City, Pitbulls were responsible for the highest number of bites in 2022.11

Despite these figures, both in the UK and internationally, and the recent media attention dog attacks have received, if you were to argue that a breed was dangerous, you would receive significant pushback from owners, activists, and even animal charity organizations stating that it is the owner’s fault. But this is wrong. While many would contend that “it’s the owner, not the breed,” the reality is different.

Designing Our Best Friend

Dogs—unlike humans—have been bred for various, very specific traits. Their traits, appearance, and behavior has been directed in a way comparable to how we’ve molded plant and other animal life over thousands of years. Watermelons and bananas used to be mostly seed; now they’re mostly flesh. Chickens were not always raised for their meat; now they are. These weren’t the natural course of evolution, but the result of humans intentionally directing evolution through deliberate cultivation or breeding. Modern-day dogs are very clearly also a result of such directed breeding.

Broadly speaking, we selected dogs for traits that are very much unlike those of wolves. Unlike their wolf ancestors, dogs are, broadly, naturally loyal to humans, even beyond preserving their own lives and those of other dogs. Indeed, a trait such as this in dogs might actually have caused some of the original aesthetic changes to their original wolf-like appearance. When Russian scientists bred foxes over generations for “tameness” to humans, they found the foxes began to have different colored fur, floppy ears, and to look, well, more like domestic dogs (though there is some debate on this).

Each dog breed has deep underlying propensities, desires, and drives for which we have selected them for generations. A key responsibility of dog ownership is to know your dog’s breed, understand its typical traits, and prepare for them. Not all individual dogs will exhibit these breed-specific traits, but most do, to varying degrees. Some hound breeds (Whippets, Greyhounds, etc.) have a prey drive and will chase or even try to kill small animals such as rabbits, even if those animals are kept as pets. Some breed-specific behavior can be trained out, but much of it can’t. Form follows function—breed-specific behavior has driven physical adaptations. Relative to other breeds, they have great vision (aptly, Greyhounds and Whippets belong to the type of dogs called “sighthounds”) and bodies that are lean and aerodynamic, with a higher ratio of muscle to fat relative to most other breeds, making them among the fastest animals on the planet, with racing Greyhounds reaching speeds up to 45 mph (72 km/h). Like many other hound breeds, they are ancient, bred for centuries to seek comfort in humans and to hunt only very specific animals, whether small vermin for Whippets and Greyhounds, or deer and wolves for the, well, Deerhounds and Wolfhounds. Hounds make fine family pets, having been bred to be highly affectionate to humans, as after all, you don’t want your hunting dog attacking you or your family.

Labradors love to retrieve—especially in water, much to the displeasure of their owners who all too often find them diving into every puddle they encounter on their daily walks. Pointers point. Border Collies herd, and as many owners would note, their instinct can be so strong that they often herd children in their human family. Cocker Spaniels will run through bushes, nose to the ground, looking as if they are tracking or hunting even when just playing—even when they have never been on a hunt of any kind. Dogs are not the way they are by accident but, quite literally, by design.

Designing Bully-type Dogs

Bulldogs were originally bred to be set on a bull, and indiscriminately injure and maim the much larger animal until it died. (These dogs were longer-legged and much more agile and healthier than today’s English Bulldog breed—bred specifically for their now nonfunctional squat appearance.) After the “sport” of bull baiting was banned, some of these dogs were instead locked in a pen with large numbers of rats and scored on how many they could kill in a specified time, with often significant wagers placed on picking the winners. This newer “sport” required greater speed and agility, so the bulldogs of that time were interbred with various terriers to produce what were originally called, naturally, “Bull and Terriers.” From these would eventually come today’s Pitbull Terriers.

In addition to this, some of the early Bull and Terriers began to be used for yet another “sport,” and one on which significant amounts of money were wagered—dog fighting. These were bred specifically for aggression. Two of these dogs would be put together in a closed pit to fight until only one came out alive. During their off hours, these fighting dogs were mostly kept in cages, away from humans. The winners, often seriously wounded themselves, were bred for their ability to kill the other dog before it could kill them. They were not bred for loyalty to humans—these were dogs bred for indiscriminate, sustained, and brutal violence in the confined quarters of the dog pit (hence the name, Pitbull Terrier).

This explains why Pitbulls are responsible for 60–70 percent of deaths to dogs in the U.S. It is not—as some advocates state—a function of size. There are many larger and stronger breeds. Pitbulls are not the largest or the strongest dog breed, but—combined with their unique behavioral traits—they are large enough and strong enough to be the deadliest.

While Pitbull and some Pitbull-type breeds have been banned in the UK under the Dangerous Dogs Act 1991, the American Bully XL was permitted due to a loophole in the law—simply put, this new breed exceeded physical characteristics of the banned breeds to the point they no longer applied under the law. It is that loophole that resulted in the recent rise of the American Bully XL, and the violence attendant to it.

(In)Breeding the American Bully XL

American Bully XLs are the heavyweight result of breeds born out of brutal human practices that sculpted generations of dogs. The foundational stock for American Bully XLs were bred for terrifying violence and we should not be surprised to find that this new, more muscular and larger version still exhibits this same propensity. It is not the dogs’ fault any more than it is the fault of sighthounds to chase squirrels, or pointers to point. But that does not change the reality.

The American Bully began in the late 1980s and early 1990s. At least one line started from champion “game dogs,” bred to endure repeated severe maiming and still continue to fight to the deadly end. To be a champion they must have killed at least one other dog in brutal combat. To further increase their size and strength, these game dogs were then bred with each other and with other Pitbulls.

The UK original breeding stock that produced Bully XLs is extremely small. An investigation from one member of our campaign uncovered an absurd, awful reality: that at least 50 percent of American Bullies advertised for sale in the UK could trace their immediate or close lineage to one line and one single dog: Killer Kimbo.12, 13

Killer Kimbo was infamous in Bully breeding circles. He was a huge animal and the result of extreme levels of inbreeding to create his mammoth size. He was so inbred that he had the same great grandfather four times over. It is this dog that has given rise to one of the most popular bloodlines within the UK.

And what has been the result of heavily inbreeding dogs originating from fighting stock? While precise data are difficult to collect, at least one of Killer Kimbo’s offspring is known to have killed someone; other breeders recount stories of his offspring trying to attack people in front of them. At least one death in the UK is a second-generation dog from Killer Kimbo stock. These are the dogs that were advertised and promoted as if they just looked large but had been bred responsibly for temperament.

Indeed, many families bought these dogs thinking these were gentle giants—many have kept them even after the impositions of the ban, believing that a dog’s behavior is set only by their owners. After his own mother was killed by the Bullies he had kept, one owner in 2024 said:14

I did not know bullys were aggressive, I didn’t believe all this stuff about the bullys [being dangerous]. But now I’ve learned the hard way and I wish I’d never had nothing to do with bullys, they’ve ruined my life and my son’s life.I honestly thought the ban was a stupid government plan to wipe out a breed which I had never seen anything but softness and love from … Now I think they need to be wiped out.

In fact, the breed was genetically constructed from fighting stock, inbred repeatedly for greater size and strength, shipped over to the UK skirting the Pitbull ban, and then advertised to families as if these dogs were the result of years of good breeding.

The Nanny Dog

In the UK, the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) has argued that no breeds are more inherently dangerous than others and leads a coalition to stop any breed bans, including the campaign to “Ban the Bully.” This is despite the fact that the RSPCA itself would not insure American Bullies on their own insurance policies, and that they separately advocate for the banning of cat breeds they consider to be too dangerous.

The UK Bully Kennel Club (not to be confused with the similar sounding UK Kennel Club) describes the American Bully XL as having a “gentle personality and loving nature.” While the United Kennel Club does not recognize the American Bully XL breed, it describes the wider breed (i.e., not the XL variant) as “gentle and friendly,” and goes even a step further, recommending that the breed “makes an excellent family dog.” Again, the XL variant of this breed is responsible for the most fatalities of any dog breed in the UK in recent years, including for killing several children.

Even more troubling is the fact that well-intentioned and potentially good owners are left at a severe disadvantage by the statements of advocates for Pitbulls and American Bullies. If an owner is aware of the breed’s past and the risks in their behaviors, they are far more likely to be able to anticipate issues and control the dog. For example, hound owners are generally aware that they will often have to emphasize recall in their dogs or keep them on a lead in non-fenced areas to prevent them from running off to chase squirrels or other small animals—it is a well-advertised trait. These preventive measures are taken very early, far before the dog may even be interested in chasing. However, owners of American Bullies would not be aware of the breed’s past were they to rely on the supportive advertising descriptions. They were actively told, from sources all over, that American Bullies are naturally good with kids and family, that they are naturally non-violent, and don’t pose any risk. Positive descriptions of American Bullies (and their XL variety) de-emphasized their violent tendencies and ran the very real risk of obfuscating future owners as to the aggressive traits of this breed and so prevented owners from correctly understanding and therefore controlling their dog appropriately.

This encouraged ignorance from owners who are ill-equipped to handle their dog, such as the owner that saw her dog “Cookie-Doe” (related to Killer Kimbo) kill her father-in-law by ripping apart his leg. Her response? It wasn’t an aggressive dog, it just liked to “play too rough.” But for every owner like this, there are other experienced, diligent owners that nevertheless find themselves, or their children, under attack from one of these dogs.

Worse still is the nickname of “nanny dog.” There is a myth among advocates for the breed that Pitbulls were once known as “nanny dogs” for their loyalty to children in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. However, this isn’t true. The name originates from Staffordshire Bull Terriers (not Pitbulls) that were named “nursemaid dogs” in a 1971 New York Times piece. There is no evidence of “nanny dog” or similar descriptions before this. Stories of 19th or early 20th century origins for the nickname are likely the result of advocates wanting to believe in a more family-oriented origin for the breed, rather than the cruel reality.

We should not blame the dog breed for how they were bred, maintained, and for what they were selected for. They were bred out of cruel origins, inbred repeatedly, still face ear cropping, and some find themselves owned by individuals who select dogs for their ability to intimidate and attack. Nevertheless, none of this changes that violent, aggressive nature that has resulted from generations of breeding specifically for it.

(Some) Owners Bear Blame Too

American Bully XLs were not cheap, and this only began to change when our campaign started in full. At the lower end, they cost about the same as other dogs, but at the very higher end of the price range they were some of the most expensive dogs you could buy. Golden Retrievers, the archetypical family dog, are so desired that it is common for breeders to have long waiting lists for litters yet to be conceived. A typical cost for a Golden Retriever in the UK is around $2,600. American Bullies, at the height of their popularity, cost as much as $4,000 per puppy. The higher-end puppies were often accompanied by graphics involving violent metaphors and text written in horror movie-type “blood” fonts.

Given this kind of marketing, what did some prospective owners think they were purchasing? Indeed, it bears asking what kind of owners were prepared to pay vast sums for a dog advertised in such a way. These dogs were clearly a status symbol for many—a large, aggressive, powerful animal to be used either for intimidation or self-defense. It is for this reason that many owners have their dog’s ears cropped to look yet more aggressive, a practice illegal under UK law, but still nonetheless practiced. Cropping ears and tails actually serves a purpose—though a brutal one. The other dog cannot bite on to the ear or tail and so gain control of its rival. The old bull baiting dogs used to go after the bull’s ears and noses. Cropping also prevents a human, engaged in defending themselves from a dog attack, from grabbing the tail or ears and using them to sling the dog off or up against a wall. This explains the popularity of these dogs, altered in such a way, amongst drug dealers and others involved in crime.

Opposition

The politics of banning the American Bully proved difficult. It took a public campaign both to convince a government that was generally averse to actions of any kind; as well as to stop the continued influence of a coalition of charities that was opposing any and all breed bans. These charities included the Dogs Trust, RSPCA, the UK Kennel Club, Battersea Dogs and Cats Home, and others.

It might seem strange that these charities could argue against any breed bans, given the figures in fatalities from Bullies. Not only this, but these same charities supported the return of the Pitbull to the UK, even despite the decades of startling figures on their dramatic overrepresentation in fatalities.

The reason for this is simple. There is no way to split fatality data so that it is favorable to Pitbulls (or, recently, XL Bullies). Instead, the charities focus chiefly on a different measure: bites.15 This measure enables charities to claim that there is a problem with a great many dog breeds such as Labradors—which, in some calculations, bite the most people. On this measure, a mauling from a Bully XL that rips a child’s throat, or tears away an adult’s arm, and a bite on the hand from a chihuahua count the same: they are each one bite.

It isn’t necessary to outline how inadequate and bankrupt this measure is. It is a shame on this entire sector that this was considered anything more than a smokescreen. It is, in my view, a true scandal that has provided a great deal of unintended cover for horrifying breeding practices, which in turn resulted in the horrific deaths of pets, adults, and children. Dog bites are not the public’s (or owners) chief concern: it is maulings, hospitalizations, and deaths. That is what we should focus on, and until the advocacy sector does so, it does not deserve to be taken seriously.

Banning the Breed

England and Wales have banned several breeds since the early 1990s. The Dangerous Dogs Act 1991 first banned Pitbulls, and then was amended to ban a further three breeds. The Act required little more than the signature of the relevant Secretary of State to add a new breed to the banned list. This Act prohibits the buying, selling, breeding, gifting, or otherwise transferring the ownership of any dog of a banned breed. All dogs in that breed are to be registered, neutered, as well as leashed and muzzled at all times in public. Not doing so or failing to register a dog of a banned breed, is a criminal offense.

When the XL Bully ban was announced, all owners were given a few months to register their dogs, neuter them, and then muzzle and leash them in public. They were forbidden to sell them, give them away or abandon them. Scotland—as a devolved nation within the United Kingdom—announced they would not ban the American Bully, and this resulted in a great many Bullies being sent to Scotland to escape the ban. Within two weeks, and after a couple of prominent attacks, the Scottish government made a legal U-turn and announced a ban. When the new Northern Ireland government formed, their first act was to ban the American Bully.

The Effects of the Ban

The strength of the ban is twofold. On one hand, Bullies are less of a danger to pets and people than they were previously. They must now be muzzled and leashed in public—or owners face seizure of the dog by police and criminal sentences for themselves. However, as has been seen in recent months, this does not change the risk to owners or those that visit their homes. Allowing registered dogs to be kept by their owners means that this risk persists. It is a risk from which the public is shielded, however, it remains one that owners and those that visit them choose to take upon themselves.

The other and key strength of the ban is in the future. Stopping the breeding and trading of Bullies means that there is a timer on their threat within Britain. They will not continue to future generations. We will not have to see more and more Bully variants, and yet worse breeding practices as breeders chase the latest trend, inbreeding for a particular coat color, the ever-increasing sizes, or the propensity for violence. Children will not have to be mauled; other dogs will not have to be ripped apart. We chose to stop this.

For as long as I can remember, espionage has fascinated me. Over the years, I’ve developed a certain expertise—at least in the pop culture sense—interviewing former spies for publications ranging from The Washington Post to, well, Playboy. I even once worked as a researcher at an international investigative firm, a job that, regrettably, involved fewer trench coats and shadowy rendezvous than one might hope. But I did walk away with a highly marketable skill: knowing how to conduct a proper background check (one never knows when that might prove useful).

Spies have long been the pillars of Hollywood storytelling, woven into thrilling tales of intrigue, and deception. But what is it about them that keeps us so enthralled? I’d argue that our obsession stems from an innate desire to know what is hidden from us. Secrets are power, and in a world increasingly shaped by information, nothing is more seductive than the idea of being the one in the know.

Secrets are power, and in a world increasingly shaped by information, nothing is more seductive than the idea of being the one in the know.

But while James Bond is synonymous with adrenaline filled action and shaken-but-not-stirred glamour, in real life, intelligence work is usually rather mundane and bureaucratic. More along the lines of painstaking, systematic data gathering and staring for hours at your screen, rather than the dramatic fight sequences we’ve been conditioned to associate with spycraft through the media. In other words, making sense of what’s going on is often hard, dull work.

Making sense of what’s going on is often hard, dull work.

We have never had more access to information, yet somehow, we understand less. The sheer volume of data is overwhelming—no single person can process even a fraction of it—so we outsource the task to algorithms, aggregators, and search engines with their own opaque filtration systems. In theory, social media should expose us to a diversity of perspectives, but in practice, its algorithms ensure we’re served more of what we already believe, cocooning us in ideological comfort.

We like to think of Google, X, Facebook, and even ChatGPT as neutral tools, but neutrality is an illusion. These platforms, intentionally or not, prioritize engagement over accuracy, outrage over nuance, and emotional provocation over intellectual depth. Further, the speed at which information spreads tends to outpace our ability to critically analyze it. Misinformation, half-truths, and emotionally charged narratives circulate rapidly, shaping perceptions before facts can be verified. In this landscape, false stories are 70 percent more likely to be shared than true ones and travel six times faster. Eager to engage in the conversation as it happens, we jump in before having even had sufficient time to process the “latest thing.” Our public discourse is shaped not by careful reasoning but by knee-jerk reactions.

Social media should expose us to a diversity of perspectives, but in practice, its algorithms ensure we’re served more of what we already believe.

Then there’s the growing crisis of trust in media. As per Gallup, Americans’ trust in mass media remains at a record low, with only 31% expressing confidence in its accuracy and fairness in 2024. Trust first dropped to 32% in 2016 and has remained low. For the third year in a row, more Americans (36%) have no trust at all in the media than those who trust it. Another 33% have little confidence. Contrast this with 72% of Americans trusting newspapers in 1976, after Watergate.

Trust in mass media remains at a record low. What is behind this erosion? A cocktail of inaccuracies, overt ideological bias, viewpoint discrimination, the weaponization of fact-checking, and outright censorship.

What is behind this erosion? A cocktail of inaccuracies, overt ideological bias, viewpoint discrimination, the weaponization of fact-checking, and outright censorship has pushed many toward alternatives: independent media, podcasters, influencers, social media, and, naturally, grifters. Yet rejecting legacy media in favor of these alternatives is often a case of leaping from the frying pan into the fire. There’s a common misconception that because something isn’t mainstream, it must be more truthful—but plenty of these new voices are just as ideologically captured, if not more so, with even fewer guardrails against deception and little investment in accuracy. Many embrace them because they mistake truthfulness for ideological alignment. Paradoxically, many have embraced the idea that “we are the media now,” a phrase frequently echoed by Elon Musk and his admirers on X—even as they repost news from the very mainstream outlets they claim are now irrelevant, and even, “dead.”

Rejecting legacy media in favor of these alternatives is often a case of leaping from the frying pan into the fire.

We are living in the middle of an information battlefield, where reality itself feels up for debate. What’s legitimate news, and what’s an AI-generated psyop? Who’s a real person, and who’s a bot designed to amplify division? How much of what we read is organic, and how much is algorithmically nudged into our feeds? And then there are also state-sponsored disinformation campaigns added to the mix—with countries like Russia, Iran, China, and yes, even the United States deploying fake news sites, deepfakes, and coordinated social media operations to manipulate global narratives.

Russia, Iran, China, and yes, even the United States deploy fake news sites and coordinated social media operations to manipulate global narratives.

In this environment, conspiracy theories thrive. People don’t fall down rabbit holes at random—there are certain preconditions that make them susceptible. Institutional distrust is a major factor, and right now, faith in institutions is in free fall, whether it’s the government, the courts, or the medical establishment. Many people feel betrayed. Add in alienation and social disconnection, and you have the perfect recipe for radicalization. The irony, of course, is that while conspiracy thinking is often framed as a form of skepticism about official narratives, it frequently results in an even greater willingness to believe in something—just not the official story.

Faith in institutions is in free fall, whether it’s the government, the courts, or the medical establishment. Many people feel betrayed.

Not all people become full blown conspiracy theorists, of course, but we can see how conspiratorial thinking has taken root. But then again, perhaps we are simply seeing this phenomenon because social media lets us see people we might have otherwise never come in contact with? What we do know is that people have a high need for certainty and control when times are uncertain, so they become more prone towards believing false things because they no longer trust institutions that they once might have.

The fragmentation of media consumption means that reaching people with authoritative information has never been more difficult. Everyone is living in a slightly different version of reality, dictated by the platforms they frequent and the sources they trust. And because attention spans have collapsed, many don’t even make it past the headlines before forming an opinion. When everything is engineered to make us feel angry, polarized, scared, and reactionary, how can we stay nuanced, critical, open-minded, and objective? How can we be more truth-seeking in a world where everyone seems to have their own version of the truth on tap?

Everyone is living in a slightly different version of reality, dictated by the platforms they frequent and the sources they trust.

A recent controversy over a certain billionaire’s hand gesture provided a perfect case study in perception bias. We all saw the same video. To some, Elon Musk’s movement was undeniably a Nazi salute. To others, it was merely an overzealous gesture made to express “my heart goes out to you.” Few people remained undecided. The fact that two groups could witness the exact same footage and walk away with diametrically opposed conclusions is a testament to how much our prior beliefs shape our perception of reality and speaks to the difficulty of uniting people behind a single understanding of reality. Psychologists call this phenomenon, “motivated perception.” We often see what we expect to see, rather than what’s actually there.

So in this landscape, what is it that grounds me? It all comes down to a simple question: How much of what I believe is based on evidence, and how much is just my own emotions, assumptions, and attempts to connect the dots? What is it that I really know? Very often in life, we imagine what something might be, rather than seeing it for what it is.

In a world where narratives compete for dominance, my goal is not to add another, but to cut to the core of what is verifiable and likely to be true.

With this new column at Skeptic, my aim is to strip away the noise in front of the headlines and get to the core of what is verifiable and true. I have no interest in reinforcing anyone’s preconceived notions—including my own. The only way to do that is through curiosity rather than confirmation. In a world where narratives compete for dominance, my goal is not to add another, but to cut to the core of what is verifiable and likely to be true. It’s easy to be swayed by emotion, to see what we expect rather than what’s in front of us. But the only way forward—the only way to make sense of this fractured information landscape—is to remain committed to facts, no matter where they lead.

I would like to keep my door open to topics you’d like to see me cover, or just feedback and thoughts. Comment below, and feel free to reach out anytime: mysteriouskat[at]protonmail.com

Over the past decade behavioral science, particularly psychology, has come under fire from critics for being fixated on progressive political ideology, most notably Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI). The critics’ evidence is, unfortunately, quite strong. For example, a recent volume, Ideological and Political Bias in Psychology,1 recounts many incidents of scholarly censorship and personal attacks that a decade ago might have only been conceivable as satire.

We believe that many problems plaguing contemporary behavioral science, especially for issues touching upon DEI, can best be understood, at their root, as a failure to adhere to basic scientific principles. In this essay, we will address three fundamental scientific principles: (1) Prioritize Objective Data Over Lived Experience; (2) Measure Well; and (3) Distinguish Appropriately Between Correlation and Causation. We will show how DEI scholarship often violates those principles, and offer suggestions for getting behavioral science back on track. “Getting back to the basics” may not sound exciting but, as athletes, musicians, and other performers have long recognized, reinforcing the fundamentals is often the best way to eliminate bad habits in order to then move forward.

The Failure to Adhere to Basic Scientific Principles
Principle #1: Prioritize Objective Data Over Lived Experience

A foundational assumption of science is that objective truth exists and that humans can discover it.2, 3, 4, 5 We do this most effectively by proposing testable ideas about the world, making systematic observations to test the ideas, and revising our ideas based on those observations. A crucial point is that this process of proposing and testing ideas is open to everyone. A fifth grader in Timbuktu, with the right training and equipment, should be able to take atmospheric observations that are as valuable as those of a Nobel Prize-winning scientist from MIT. If the fifth grader’s observations are discounted, this should only occur because their measurement methods were poor, not because of their nationality, gender, age, family name, or any other personal attribute.

A corollary of science being equally open to all is that an individual’s personal experience or “lived experience” carries no inherent weight in claims about objective reality. It is not that lived experience doesn’t have value; indeed, it has tremendous value in that it provides a window into individuals’ perceptions of reality. However, perception can be wildly inaccurate and does not necessarily equate to reality. If that Nobel Prizewinning scientist vehemently disputed global warming because his personal experience was that temperatures have not changed over time, yet he provided no atmospheric measurements or systematic tests of his claim, other scientists would rightly ignore his statements—at least as regards the question of climate change.

The limited utility of a person’s lived experience seems obvious in most scientific disciplines, such as in the study of rocks and wind patterns, but less so in psychology. After all, psychological science involves the study of people—and they think and have feelings about their lived experiences. However, what is the case in other scientific disciplines is also the case in psychological science: lived experience does not provide a foolproof guide to objective reality.

To take an example from the behavioral sciences, consider the Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study.6 At-risk boys were mentored for five years, from the ages of 10 to 15. They participated in a host of programs, including tutoring, sports, and community groups, and were given medical and psychiatric care. Decades later, most of those who participated claimed the program had been helpful. Put differently, their lived experience was that the program had a positive impact on their life. However, these boys were not any better in important outcomes relative to a matched group of at-risk boys who were not provided mentoring or extra support. In fact, boys in the program ended up more likely to engage in serious street crimes and, on average, they died at a younger age. The critical point is that giving epistemic authority to lived experience would have resulted in making inaccurate conclusions. And the Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study is not an isolated example. There are many programs that people feel are effective, but when tested systematically turn out to be ineffective, at best. These include programs like DARE,7 school-wide mental health interventions,8 and—of course—many diversity training programs.9

DEI over-reach in behavioral science is intimately related to a failure within the scientific community to adhere to basic principles of science and appreciate important findings from the behavioral science literature.

Indeed, when it comes to concerns related to DEI, the scientific tenet of prioritizing testable truth claims over lived experience has often fallen to the wayside. Members of specific identity groups are given privilege to speak about things that cannot be contested by those from other groups. In other words, in direct contradiction of the scientific method, some people are granted epistemic authority based solely on their lived experience.10

Consider gender dysphoria. In the past decade, there has been a drastic increase in the number of people, particularly children and adolescents, identifying as transgender. Those who express the desire to biologically transition often describe their lived experience as feeling “born in the wrong body,” and express confidence that transition will dramatically improve their lives. We argue while these feelings must be acknowledged, they should not be taken as objective truth; instead, such feelings should be weighed against objective data on life outcomes of others who have considered gender transition and/or transitioned. And those data, while limited, suggest that many individuals who identify as transgender during childhood, but who do not medically transition, eventually identify again with the gender associated with their birth sex.11, 12 Although these are small, imperfect studies, they underscore that medical transition is not always the best option.

Photo by Delia Giandeini / Unsplash

Caution in automatically acceding to a client’s preference to transition is particularly important among minors. Few parents and health care professionals would affirm a severely underweight 13-year-old’s claim that, based on their lived experience, they are fat and will only be happy if they lose weight. Nevertheless, many psychologists and psychiatrists make a similar mistake when they affirm a transgender child’s desire to transition without carefully weighing the risks. In one study, 65 percent of people who had detransitioned reported that their clinician, who often was a psychologist, “did not evaluate whether their desire to transition was secondary to trauma or a mental health condition.”13 The concern, in other words, is that lived experience is being given too much weight. How patients feel is important, but their feelings should be only one factor among many, especially if they are minors. Mental health professionals should know this, and parents should be able to trust them to act accordingly.

Principle #2: Measure Well

Another basic principle of behavioral science is that anything being measured must be measured reliably and validly. Reliability refers to the consistency of measurement; validity refers to whether the instrument is truly measuring what it claims to measure. For example, a triple beam balance is reliable if it yields the same value when repeatedly measuring the same object. The balance is valid if it yields a value of exactly 1 kg when measuring the reference kilogram (i.e., the International Prototype of the Kilogram), a platinum-iridium cylinder housed in a French vault under standardized conditions.

Behavioral scientists’ understanding of any concept is constrained by the degree to which they can measure it consistently and accurately. Thus, to make a claim about a concept, whether about its prevalence in a population or its relation to another concept, scientists must first demonstrate both the reliability and the validity of the measure being used. For some measures of human behavior, such as time spent listening to podcasts or number of steps taken each day, achieving good reliability and validity is reasonably straightforward. Things are generally more challenging for the self-report measures that psychologists often use.

Nevertheless, good measurement can sometimes be achieved, and the study of personality provides a nice model. In psychology, there are several excellent measures of the Big Five personality factors (Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness).14 Individuals’ responses are highly reliable: people who rate themselves as highly extraverted as young adults rate themselves similarly years later. Moreover, personality assessments are valid: individuals’ responses correlate with their actual day-to-day behaviors, as reported by themselves and as observed by others.15 In other words, people who rate themselves as high (versus low) in extroversion on psychological questionnaires, for example, really do spend more time socializing.

Credit: Simply Psychology

However, not all psychological measures turn out to have solid reliability and validity. These include the popular Myers Briggs Type Indicator personality test and projective tests such as the Rorschach. Unfortunately, in the quest to support DEI, some concepts that fail the requirements of good measurement are used widely and without reservation. The concept of microaggressions, for example, has gained enormous traction despite its having fundamental measurement issues.

“Microaggressions” were brought to psychologists’ attention by Derald Wing Sue and colleagues.16 Originally described as “brief and commonplace daily verbal, behavioral, or environmental indignities, whether intentional or unintentional, that communicate hostile, derogatory, or negative racial slights and insults toward people of color” (p. 271),17 the concept has since expanded in use to describe brief, verbal or nonverbal, indignities directed toward a different “other.”18, 19

In 2017, Scott Lilienfeld discussed how the failure to adhere to the principles of good measurement has rendered the concept of microaggression “wide open,” without any clear anchors to reality.20 The primary weakness for establishing validity, that is, for establishing evidence of truly measuring what scientists claim to be measuring, is that “microaggression” is defined in the eye of the beholder.21 Thus, any person at any point can say they have been “microaggressed” against, and no one can test, let alone refute, the claim because it is defined solely by the claimant’s subjective appraisal—their lived experience.

Our criticism of microaggressions, then, spans concerns related to both weak measurement and an undue reliance on lived experience.

As Scott Lilienfeld explained, the end result is that essentially anything, including opposing behaviors (such as calling on a student in class or not calling on a student in class) can be labeled a microaggression. A question such as, “Do you feel like you belong here?” could be perceived as a microaggression by one person but not by someone else; in fact, even the same person can perceive the same comment differently depending on their mood or on who asks the question (which would indicate poor reliability). Our criticism of microaggressions, then, spans concerns related to both weak measurement and an undue reliance on lived experience.

Another of psychology’s most famous recent topics is the Implicit Association Test (IAT), which supposedly reveals implicit, or subconscious, bias. The IAT measures an individual’s reaction times when asked to classify pictures or text spatially. A video22 may be the best way to appreciate what is happening in the IAT, but the basic idea is that if a person more quickly pairs pictures of a Black person than those of a White person with a negative word (for example, “lazy” or “stupid”) then they have demonstrated their unconscious bias against Black people. The IAT was introduced by Anthony Greenwald and colleagues in the 1990s.23 They announced that their newly developed instrument, the race IAT, measures unconscious racial prejudice or bias and that 90 to 95 percent of Americans, including many racial minorities, demonstrated such bias. Since then, these scholars and their collaborators (plus others such as DEI administrators) have enjoyed tremendous success advancing the claim that the race IAT reveals pervasive unconscious bias that contributes to society-wide discrimination.

Screenshot from Harvard’s Project Implicit Skin Type Test

Despite its immense influence, the IAT is a flawed measure. Regarding reliability, the correlation between a person’s response when taking the test at two different times hovers around 0.5.24 This is well below conventionally acceptable levels in psychology, and far below the test-retest reliabilities for accepted personality and cognitive ability measures, which can reach around .8, even when a person takes the tests decades later.25, 26

The best path forward is to get back to the basics: understand the serious limitations of lived experience, focus on quality measurement, and be mindful of the distinction between correlation and causation.

As for the IAT’s validity, nobody has convincingly shown that patterns of reaction times actually reflect “unconscious bias” (or “implicit prejudice”) as opposed to cultural stereotypes.27 Moreover, in systematic syntheses of published studies, the association between scores on the race IAT and observations or measurements of real-world biased behavior is inconsistent and weak.28, 29 In other words, scores on the IAT do not meaningfully correlate with other ways of measuring racial bias or real life manifestations of it.

Principle #3: Distinguish Appropriately Between Correlation and Causation

“Correlation does not equal causation” is another basic principle of behavioral science (indeed, all science). Although human brains seem built to readily notice and even anticipate causal connections, a valid claim that “X” has a causal effect on “Y” needs to meet three criteria, and a correlation between X and Y is only the first. The second criterion is that X precedes Y in time. The third and final criterion is the link between X and Y is not actually due to some other variable that influences both X and Y (“confounders”). To test this final point, researchers typically need to show that when X is manipulated in an experiment, Y also changes.

Imagine, for instance, that a researcher asks students about their caffeine intake and sleep schedule, and upon analyzing the data finds that students’ caffeine consumption is negatively correlated with how much they sleep—those who report consuming more caffeine tend to report sleeping less. This is what many psychologists call correlational research (or associational or observational research). These correlational data could mean that caffeine consumption reduces sleep time, but the data could also mean that a lack of sleep causes an increase in caffeine consumption, or that working long hours causes both a decrease in sleep and an increase in caffeine. To make the case that caffeine causes poor sleep, the researcher must impose, by random assignment, different amounts of caffeine on students to determine how sleep is affected by varying doses. That is, the researcher would conduct a true experiment.

Distinguishing between correlation and causation is easier said in the abstract than practiced in reality, even for psychological scientists who are specifically trained to make the distinction.30 Part of the difficulty is that in behavioral science, many variables that are generally thought of as causal cannot be manipulated for ethical or practical reasons. For example, researchers cannot impose neglect (or abuse, corporal punishment, parental divorce, etc.) on some children and not others to study how children are affected by the experience. Still, absent experiments, psychologists bear the responsibility of providing converging, independent lines of evidence that indicate causality before they draw a causal conclusion. Indeed, scientists did this when it came to claiming that smoking causes cancer: they amassed evidence from national datasets with controls, discordant twin designs, correlational studies of exposure to second-hand smoke, non-human experiments, and so on—everything but experiments on humans—before coming to a consensus view that smoking causes cancer in humans. Our point is that investigating causal claims without true experiments is possible, but extremely difficult and time consuming.

The conflation of correlation with causation seems especially prevalent when it comes to DEI issues.

That said, the conflation of correlation with causation seems especially prevalent when it comes to DEI issues. In the context of microaggressions, for example, a Google search quickly reveals many scholars claiming that microaggressions cause psychological harm. Lilienfeld has been a rare voice suggesting that it is dangerous to claim that microaggressions cause mental health issues when there are no experimental data to support such a claim. Moreover, there is a confounding variable that predicts both (1) perceiving oneself as having been “microaggressed” against and (2) struggling with one’s mental health—namely, the well-documented personality trait of neuroticism. In other words, individuals who are prone to experience negative emotions (those who are high in neuroticism) often perceive that more people try to inflict harm on them than actually do, and these same individuals also struggle with mental health.

Assuming we were able to develop a workable definition of “microaggressions,” what would a true experiment look like? An experiment would require that participants be exposed to microaggressions (or not), and then be measured or observed for indications of psychological harm. There are valid ethical concerns for such a study, but we believe it can be done. There is a lengthy precedent in psychological research where temporary discomfort can be inflicted with appropriate safeguards. For instance, a procedure called the “trier social stress test” (TSST) is widely used, where participants make a speech with little preparation time in front of judges who purposefully avoid any non-verbal reaction. This is followed by a mental arithmetic task.31 If the TSST is acceptable for use in research, then it should also be acceptable to expose study participants to subtle slights.

This fallacy of equating correlation with causation also arises in the context of gender transitioning and suicide. To make the point that not being able to transition is deeply damaging, transgender individuals, and sometimes their professional supporters, may ask parents something such as, “would you rather have a dead daughter or a living son?” One logical flaw here is in assuming that because gender distress is associated with suicidal ideation, then the gender distress must be causing the suicidal ideation. However, other psychological concerns, such as depression, anxiety, trauma, eating disorders, ADHD, and autism, could be causing both the gender distress and the suicidal ideation—another case of confounding variables. Indeed, these disorders occur more frequently in individuals who identify as transgender. Thus, it is quite possible that someone may suffer from depression, and this simultaneously raises their likelihood of identifying as transgender and of expressing suicidal ideation.

Photo by Uday Mittal / Unsplash

It is not possible (nor would it be ethical if possible) to impose gender identity concerns on some children and not others to study the effect of gender dysphoria on suicidality. However, at this point, the correlational research that does exist has not offered compelling evidence that gender dysphoria causes increased suicidality. Studies have rarely attempted to rule out third variables, such as other mental health diagnoses. The few studies that have tried to control for other variables have yielded mixed results.32, 33 Until researchers have consistently isolated gender dysphoria as playing an independent role in suicidality, they should not claim that gender dysphoria increases suicide risk.

Over three decades ago, the psychologist David Lykken wrote, “Psychology isn’t doing very well as a scientific discipline and something seems to be wrong somewhere” (p. 3).34 Sadly, psychology continues to falter; in fact, we think it has gotten worse. The emotional and moral pull of DEI concerns are understandable but they may have short-circuited critical thinking about the limitations of lived experience, the requirement of using only reliable and valid measurement instruments, and the need to meet strict criteria before claiming that one variable has a causal influence on another variable.

DEI Concepts Contradict Known Findings About Human Cognition

The empirical bases for some DEI concepts contradict social scientific principles. Additionally, certain DEI ideas run counter to important findings about human nature that scientists have established by following the required scientific principles. We discuss three examples below.

1) Out-Group Antipathy

Humans are tribal by nature. We have a long history of living in stable groups and competing against other groups. Thus, it’s no surprise that one of social psychology’s most robust findings is that in-group preferences are powerful and easy to evoke. For example, in studies where psychologists create in-groups and out-groups using arbitrary criteria such as shirt color, adults and children alike have a large preference for their group members.35, 36 Even infants prefer those who are similar to themselves37 and respond preferentially to those who punish dissimilar others.38

Constructive disagreement about ideas should be encouraged rather than leveraged as an excuse to silence those who may see the world differently.

DEI, although generally well-intentioned, often overlooks this tribal aspect of our psychology. In particular, in the quest to confront the historical mistreatment of certain identity groups, it often instigates zero-sum thinking (i.e., that one group owes a debt to another; that one group cannot gain unless another loses). This type of thinking will exacerbate, rather than mitigate, animosity. A more fruitful approach would emphasize individual characteristics over group identity, and the common benefits that can arise when all individuals are treated fairly.

2) Expectancies

When people expect to feel a certain way, they are more likely to experience that feeling.39, 40 Thus, when someone, especially an impressionable teenager or young adult, is told that they are a victim, the statement (even if true) is not merely a neutral descriptor. It can also set up the expectation of victimhood with the downstream consequence of making one feel themselves to be even more of a victim. DEI microaggression workshops may do exactly this—they prime individuals to perceive hostility and negative intent in ambiguous words and actions.41 The same logic applies to more pronounced forms of bigotry. For instance, when Robin DiAngelo describes “uniquely anti-black sentiment integral to white identity” (p. 95),42 the suggestion that White people are all anti-Black might have the effect of exacerbating both actual and perceived racism. Of course, we need to deal honestly with any and all racism when it does exist, but it is also important to understand potential costs of exaggerating such claims. Expectancy effects might interact with the “virtuous victim effect,” wherein individuals perceive victims as being more moral than non-victims.43, 44 Thus, there can be a social value gained simply in presenting oneself as a victim.

3) Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases are one of the most important and well-replicated discoveries of the behavioral sciences. It is therefore troubling that, in the discussion of DEI topics, psychologists often fall victim to those very biases. (If you’re reading this on a desktop computer, be sure to explore the interactive version of the comprehensive chart shown below.)

Credit: Design by John Manoogian III; Categories & Descriptions by Buster Benson; Implementation by TilmannR (CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

A striking example is the American Psychological Association’s (APA) statement shortly after the death of George Floyd, which provides a textbook illustration of the availability bias, the tendency to overvalue evidence that easily comes to mind. The APA, the largest psychological organization in the world, asserted after Floyd’s death that “The deaths of innocent black people targeted specifically because of their race—often by police officers—are both deeply shocking and shockingly routine.”45 How “shockingly routine” are they? According to the Washington Post database of police killings, in 2020 there were 248 Black people killed by police. By comparison, over 6,500 Black people were killed in traffic fatalities that year—a 26-fold difference.46 Also, some portion of those 248 victims were not innocent—given that 216 were armed, some killings would probably have been an appropriate use of force by the police to defend themselves or others. Some portion was also not killed specifically because of their race. So why would the APA describe a relatively rare event as “shockingly routine”? This statement came in the aftermath of the widely publicized police killings of Floyd and those of Ahmaud Arbery and Breonna Taylor. In other words, these rare events were seen as common likely because widespread media coverage made them readily available in our minds.

Unfortunately, the APA also recently fell prey to another well-known bias, the base rate fallacy, where relevant population sizes are ignored. In this case, the APA described new research that found “The typical woman was considered to be much more similar to a typical White woman than a typical Black woman.”47 Although not stated explicitly, the implication seems to be that, absent racism, the typical woman would be roughly midway between typical White woman and typical Black woman. That is an illogical conclusion given base rates. In the U.S., White people outnumber Black people by roughly 5 to 1; hence the typical woman should be perceived as more similar to a typical White woman than to a typical Black woman.

What Happened? Some Possible Causes

At this stage, we expect that many readers may be wondering how it can be that social scientists regularly violate basic scientific principles—principles that are so fundamental that these same social scientists routinely teach them in introductory courses. One possible reason is myside bias, wherein individuals process information in a way that favors their own “team.” For example, in the case of the race Implicit Association Test, proponents of the IAT might more heavily scrutinize the methodology of studies that yield negative results compared to those that have yielded their desired results. Similarly, although lived experience is a limited kind of evidence, it certainly is a source of evidence, and thus scholars may elevate its importance and overlook its limitations when doing so bolsters their personal views.

A related challenge facing behavioral scientists is that cognitive biases are universal and ubiquitous—everyone, including professional scientists, is susceptible.48 In fact, one might say that the scientific method, including the three principles we emphasize here, is an algorithm (i.e., a set of rules and processes) designed to overcome our eternally pervasive cognitive biases.

A third challenge confronting behavioral scientists is the current state of the broader scientific community. Scientific inquiry works best when practiced in a community adhering to a suite of norms, including organized skepticism, that incentivize individuals to call out each other’s poor practices.49, 50 In other words, in a healthy scientific community, if a claim becomes widely adopted without sufficient evidence, or if a basic principle is neglected, a maverick scientist would be rewarded for sounding the alarm by gaining respect and opportunities. Unfortunately, the scientific community does not act this way with respect to DEI issues, perhaps because the issues touch widely held personal values (e.g., about equality between different groups of people). If different scientists held different values, there would probably be more healthy skepticism of DEI topics. However, there is little ideological diversity within the academy. In areas such as psychology, for example, liberal-leaning scholars outnumber conservative-leaning scholars by at least 8 to 1, and in some disciplines the ratio is 20 to 1 or even more.51, 52 A related concern is that these values are more than just personal views. They often seem to function as sacred values, non-negotiable principles that cannot be compromised and only questioned at risk to one’s status within the community.

A related challenge facing behavioral scientists is that cognitive biases are universal and ubiquitous—everyone, including professional scientists, is susceptible.

From this perspective,53 it is easy to see how those who question DEI may well face moral outrage, even if (or maybe especially if) their criticisms are well-founded. The fact that this outrage sometimes translates into public cancellations is extremely disheartening. Yet there are likely even more de facto cancellations than it seems. Someone can be cancelled directly or indirectly. Indirect cancellations can take the form of contract nonrenewal, pressure to resign, or having one’s employer dig for another offense to use as the stated grounds of forcing someone out of their job. This latter strategy is a very subtle, yet no less insidious, method of cancellation. As an analogy, it is like a police officer following someone with an out-of-state license plate and then pulling the car over when they fail to use a turn signal. An offense was committed, but the only reason the offense was observed in the first place is because the officer was looking for a reason to make the stop and therefore artificially enhanced the time window in which the driver was being scrutinized. The stated reason for the stop is failure to signal; the real reason is the driver is from out of town. Whether direct or indirect, the key to a cancellation is that holding the same job becomes untenable after failing to toe the party line on DEI topics.

It is against this backdrop that DEI scholarship is conducted. Academics fear punishment (often subtle) for challenging DEI research. Ideas that cannot be freely challenged are unfalsifiable. Those ideas will likely gain popularity because the marketplace of ideas becomes the monopoly of a single idea. An illusory consensus can emerge about a complex area for which reasonable, informed, and qualified individuals have highly differing views. An echo chamber created by forced consensus is the breeding ground for bad science.

How to Get Behavioral Science Back on Track

We are not the first ones to express concern about the quality of science in our discipline.54, 55 However, to our knowledge, we are the first to discuss how DEI over-reach goes hand-in-hand with the failure to engage in good science. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mean it can’t be fixed. We offer a few suggestions for improvement.

First, disagreement should be normalized. Advisors should model disagreement by presenting an idea and explicitly asking their lab members to talk about its weaknesses. We need to develop a culture where challenging others’ ideas is viewed as an integral (and even enjoyable) part of the scientific process, and not an ad hominem attack.

Second, truth seeking must be re-established as the fundamental goal of behavioral science. Unfortunately, many academics in behavioral science seem now to be more interested in advocacy than science. Of course, as a general principle, faculty and students should not be restricted from engaging in advocacy. However, this advocacy should not mingle with their academic work; it must occur on their own time. The tension between advocacy and truth seeking is that advocates, by definition, have an a priori position and are tasked with convincing others to accept and then act upon that belief. Truth seekers must be open to changing their opinion whenever new evidence or better analyses demand it.

To that end, we need to resurrect guardrails that hold students accountable for demonstrating mastery of important scientific concepts, including those described above, before receiving a PhD. Enforcing high standards may sound obvious, but actually failing students who do not meet those standards is an exclusionary practice that might be met with resistance.

We need to develop a culture where challenging others’ ideas is viewed as an integral (and even enjoyable) part of the scientific process, and not an ad hominem attack.

Another intriguing solution is to conduct “adversarial collaborations,” wherein scholars who disagree work together on a joint project.56 Adversarial collaborators explicitly spell out their competing hypotheses and together develop a method for answering a particular question, including the measures and planned analyses. Stephen Ceci, Shulamit Kahn, and Wendy Williams,57 for example, engaged in an adversarial collaboration that synthesized evidence regarding gender bias in six areas of academic science, including hiring, grant funding, and teacher ratings. They found evidence for gender bias in some areas but not others, a finding that should prove valuable in decisions about where to allocate resources.

Illustration by Izhar Cohen

In conclusion, we suggest that DEI over-reach in behavioral science is intimately related to a failure within the scientific community to adhere to basic principles of science and appreciate important findings from the behavioral science literature. The best path forward is to get back to the basics: understand the serious limitations of lived experience, focus on quality measurement, and be mindful of the distinction between correlation and causation. We need to remember that the goal of science is to discover truth. This requires putting ideology and advocacy aside while in the lab or classroom. Constructive disagreement about ideas should be encouraged rather than leveraged as an excuse to silence those who may see the world differently. The scientific method requires us to stay humble and accept that we just might be wrong. That principle applies to all scientists, including the three authors of this article. To that end, readers who disagree with any of our points should let us know! Maybe we can sort out our differences—and find common ground—through an adversarial collaboration.

The views presented in this article are solely those of the authors. They do not represent the views of any author’s employer or affiliation.

Consider the word “skeptic.” What image does it evoke? A cynic? Someone who doubts everything? Many conflate skepticism with pure doubt, but true skepticism is far richer. It is thoughtful inquiry and open-minded analysis. Its essence is captured by Spinoza’s timeless dictum, “not to ridicule, not to bewail, not to scorn human actions, but to understand them.”

This commitment to understanding different viewpoints is at the heart of meaningful discourse—yet, in practice, it is often abandoned. Public debates—on issues from abortion and climate change to the principle of free speech—tend to degenerate into a melee of name-calling and outrage. Genuine skepticism, however, demands thoughtful engagement. It insists that we immerse ourselves in diverse perspectives, striving to understand them thoroughly before reaching reasoned conclusions. It calls for intellectual honesty—the willingness to consider opposing arguments without succumbing to anger or mockery, even when the evidence seems overwhelmingly in favor of one side.

Skepticism requires the ability to grasp opposing arguments without resorting to anger or ridicule, even when the evidence overwhelmingly shows they’re wrong.

Indeed, one of the greatest obstacles to having an accurate understanding of reality isn’t just having your facts wrong—it’s the human tendency to moralize our biases. We rarely think of ourselves as extremists or ideologues.

Instead, we often embrace belief systems that validate our most destructive impulses, fooling ourselves into thinking we’re champions of justice. Some of the most toxic voices in our society are utterly convinced that they stand on the right side of history. Skepticism requires the courage and conscious effort to step outside that mindset.

If this resonates with you, then welcome—you’ve found your intellectual home.

People rarely think of themselves as extremists or ideologues. Instead, they find belief systems that validate their most destructive impulses. Skepticism requires the courage to step outside that mindset.

And there’s more: even when we adopt Spinoza’s dictum, our understanding of the world will be lacking if the very foundation of our knowledge—the very basis on which you (and others) make decisions—doesn’t accurately reflect the world. This is where critical thinking and the tools of science come in.

Skeptic magazine: A Commitment to Depth and Balance

Skeptic is a leading popular science magazine that explores the biggest questions in science, technology, society, and culture with a relentless commitment to truth. We don’t push an agenda—we follow the evidence. Every article, before it’s published, is put to the test: Is this really accurate? How could it be wrong? Do the cited sources support the claims being made? Our mission is clear—to cut through misinformation and dogma, delivering sharp, evidence-based analysis grounded in reality.

So, what can you expect to find in our pages? Long-form, analytical pieces that explore complex issues in depth constitute the vast majority of our work. At times, we may also feature op-eds—particularly when they emerge from rigorous research and present an intriguing, contrarian perspective. And when an issue carries significant weight, we may publish “the best case for...” articles—usually pairing them with an equally strong piece presenting the counterargument(s). As an example, our recent coverage of abortion after the Roe v. Wade ruling featured my own explanation of the pro-choice position, Danielle D’Souza Gill’s robust argument against abortion (quoting none other than Christopher Hitchens!), and a comprehensive Skeptic Research Center report analyzing public attitudes toward the issue (it turns out most people don’t understand the effects of overturning Roe).

In today’s age of activism, this balanced approach might seem unassertive. But the truth is, absolute certainties are rare. We can only approximate truth, and what constitutes “truth” varies by domain—science, politics, law, journalism, and ethics all demand different methods of reasoning. Put simply, our mission is to present what is known about the world as rigorously as possible.

You, the reader, decide where you stand.

So, are you simply believers in “The Science”?

Lately, the rallying cry “Trust the Science” has become a viral meme—a slogan that, on the surface, criticizes the limitations of science in being able to solve complex problems. Yet, a closer look reveals two deeper issues. First, some public science communicators are overstating consensus and stepping into the policy arena—territory traditionally reserved for politicians and activists. Second, many academic institutions have allowed ideology to seep into their departments, undermining strict adherence to the scientific method and neutral, dispassionate inquiry. This contamination isn’t confined to academia; even reputable popular science outlets have been affected. The net result is a degradation of trust in deep expertise and the scientific approach, allowing less rigorous voices to gain prominence.

In truth, trusting science—meaning evidence gathered through systematic, methodical inquiry—remains our best tool for uncovering reality. But conflating this with blind faith in public science figures is a category error. Science is not a priesthood, and consensus is not dogma.

Likewise, flawed research built on unfalsifiable assumptions can only be dismantled through relentless skepticism and the unwavering application of the scientific method; within its fallibility lies the greatest strength of science: self-correction.

Whether mistakes are made honestly or dishonestly, whether a fraud is knowingly or unknowingly perpetrated, in time it will be flushed out of the system through the lack of external verification. The cold fusion fiasco is a classic example of the system’s swift consequences for error and hasty publication; the purported link between vaccines and autism was debunked in the 1990s, and yet still persists in some circles, which indicates that reason, like freedom, requires eternal vigilance.

Despite built-in mechanisms science is still subject to a number of problems and fallacies that even the most careful scientist and skeptic are aware can be troublesome. We can, however, find inspiration in those who have overcome them to make monumental contributions to our understanding of the world.

Charles Darwin is a sterling example of a scientist who struck the right balance between total acceptance of and devotion to the status quo, and an open willingness to explore and accept new ideas. This delicate balance forms the basis of the whole concept of paradigm shifts in the history of science.

Photo by Hulki Okan Tabak / UnsplashThe Next Chapter: A New Era for Skeptic

It’s been over 30 years since Pat Linse and I founded Skeptic magazine and the Skeptics Society, our 501(c)(3) nonprofit dedicated to science research and education—a modest beginning in my garage that has since blossomed into one of the world’s most influential popular science publications.

Along the way, we’ve had the honor of collaborating with some of the greatest thinkers of our time, including our current Editorial Board members Jared Diamond, Steven Pinker, and Richard Dawkins, amongst many.

While Pat’s passing left an irreplaceable void, our team has doubled down on the mission to promote an evidence-based understanding of the world.

A glimpse into the past: Pat, Randi, Tanja, me, and our old offices—lost in the Los Angeles fires of January 2025 but not forgotten.

Today, I’m proud to announce that our esteemed Editorial Board is joined by three fresh voices—April Bleske-Rechek, Robert Maranto, and Catherine Salmon—whose incisive articles grace our recent issues and this new website.

We’re also delighted to have contributing editor Katherine Brodsky join us, launching her regular column, Culture Code.

Finally, we’re excited to reintroduce the Skeptic Research Center—led by social scientists Kevin McCaffree and Anondah Saide—now with its own dedicated site, where we’ll continue our mission of data-driven inquiry into some of today’s biggest issues.

In celebration of our rich 30+ year history, we’ll also be republishing some of our most timeless articles—works that remain as relevant and thought-provoking now as when they were first written—and publishing many, many more brand-new articles, podcasts, research reports, and even documentary films.

Welcome to the new Skeptic! Let’s explore reality together.

To paraphrase Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, Black Lives Matter activists and police unions are two houses both alike in indignity. Neither truly wants to improve policing in the most necessary ways: the former because it could undermine their view of the world and reduce revenue streams, including billions in donations; the latter for a more mundane reason. Cops, like other street-level bureaucrats, don’t want to change their standard operating procedures and face accountability for screwups. Unfortunately, with Black Lives Matter groups receiving billions in donations and helping increase progressive turnout, media and academia failing to provide accurate information to voters, and police unions enjoying iconic status among conservatives when they are better viewed as armed but equally inefficient teachers’ unions, we don’t see the political incentives for reform any time soon, despite some recent local level successes.

Injustice—How Progressives (and Some Conservatives) Got Us Into This Mess

Professors and other respectables rail against “deplorables,”1 but missing in political discourse is that mass rule, AKA populism, is not a mass pathological delusion. Rather, its appearance is for solid economic and social reasons. When problems that affect regular citizens get ignored by their leaders, people in democratic systems can get revenge at the ballot box. From inflation and foreign policy debacles, to COVID-19 school shutdowns that went on far longer in the U.S. than in Europe at immense and immensely unequal social cost,2 ordinary people sense that the wealthy, bureaucrats, professionals, and professors often advance their own interests and fetishes at the expense of regular folks, and then use mainstream “knowledge producing” institutions, particularly academia and the mainstream news media, to cover up their failings.

Indeed, as Newsweek’s Batya Ungar-Sargon shows in her brilliant book Bad News: How Woke Media Is Undermining Democracy, the mainstream media now stand forthrightly behind the plutocrats. This can be documented empirically: the Center for Public Integrity points out that, during the 2016 presidential race, identified mainstream media journalists made 96 percent of their financial donations to one political party (the Democrats) and to the more mainstream of the candidates running.3 That basic instinct to hold the respectables accountable for their failings may have been the only thing keeping the Trump 2024 presidential candidacy viable despite his many and well-documented failings and debate loss against Kamala Harris.4

Perhaps nowhere is popular anger more justifiable than regarding crime, a trend best captured in the saga of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. The roots of that failure go deep, and implicate multiple sacred cows in contemporary elite politics. As Anglo-Canadian political scientist Eric P. Kaufmann writes in his landmark work The Third Awokening,5 critical theory and other postmodern ideologies (AKA woke) have been evolving for over a century. To his credit, and unlike most conservatives, Kaufmann does not paint wokeism as entirely wrong—like populism, it too came about as a result of grievances experienced by the wider society. Rather, he describes it as needing moderating influences because, as with all other ideologies, it is not entirely (or in this case even mainly) correct. This is all the more so since so many among the woke, who are vastly overrepresented in the political class, lack experience with people from different walks of life. Their insulation, which Democratic commentator and political consultant James Carville—who coined the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” that was key to then-Governor Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory over President George H.W. Bush—derides as “faculty lounge politics,”6 promotes fanaticism, declaring formerly extreme ideas not merely contestable or even mainstream, but off limits to criticism.

The nonnegotiable assumptions of late-stage woke include reflexively disparaging the achievements of Western civilization, while anointing non-Western or traditionally marginalized peoples and ideas as sacred. This deep script makes those (particularly wealthy Whites)7 with advanced degrees susceptible to believing the worst about White police officers, leaving influential segments of the political class subject to exploitation by grifters, with disastrous results. As one of us shows, many Americans believe that police pose a near genocidal threat to Black people, when in fact in a typical year fewer than 20 unarmed Black people (some of whom were attacking the police) are killed by nearly a half million White police officers, a lot lower than one would expect given that the Black crime rate is more than double that of other cohorts.8 Likewise, The 1619 Project creator Nikole Hannah-Jones and many other activists claim that police departments evolved from racist slave-catching patrols, which is simply not true.9

The problem arises when the Pulitzer Prize-winning Hannah-Jones and many other scholars and activists have an interest in maintaining the assertion that police are a threat to Black people, employing shocking visual images and taking advantage of widespread ignorance to make the case. The PBS News Hour, like other media outlets, has constantly highlighted the very rare instances in which White police officers actually do kill unarmed Black people, without ever placing them in the context of overall statistical evidence, which demonstrates that these tragic events are incredibly rare, nor giving comparable treatment to the far more numerous White casualties of police.10

Since the Black Lives era began, fatal ambushes of police officers have risen dramatically, almost certainly due to demonizing of the police.

Academia is an even greater offender. At the opening plenary of the 2021 American Educational Research Association annual meeting, AERA President Shaun Harper spent most of his hour-long session lambasting police as a threat to Black people. Harper is a master at securing grants and climbing the hierarchy to run academic associations. Yet his views on cops are out of sync with both reality and with the views of Black voters, who have consistently refused to support defunding police, and whose opinions on criminal justice generally resemble those of Whites and Hispanics.11, 12

Effective, accountable policing can save lives, especially in Black communities. Reform, rather than de-policing, is crucial.

Harper’s views do, however, reflect the Critical Race Theory (CRT) approaches preferred by professors studying race, both in education and in the social sciences more broadly—24 of the 25 most cited works with Black Lives Matter in their titles do not involve research that would save Black lives in any conceivable time frame. The 19th most cited article does empirically study (and suggest better) police procedures, making a case for having police document their actions in writing not just every time they fire their guns, but every time they unholster them. This mere reform, likely forcing cops to think an extra second before acting, reduces police shootings of civilians without increasing casualties among officers.13 In sharp contrast, however, other highly cited “scholarly” articles on Black Lives Matter:

… explore social media use and activism (4, including one piece involving Ben and Jerry’s ice cream and BLM), racial activism and white attitudes (3), immigration and migrants (2), anti-Blackness in higher education, “democratic repair,” radically re-imagining law, anti-Blackness of global capital, urban geography, counseling psychology, research on K–12 schools, BLM and “technoscientific expertise amid solar transitions,” BLM and “evidence based outrage in obstetrics and gynecology,” and BLM and differential mortality in the electorate.14

It is probably worth repeating here that at least one article, written by senior academics at respected institutions, looks specifically at the influence of the Black Lives Matter movement on the naming of popular ice cream flavors at Ben and Jerry’s. These “studies” get professors tenure, grants, and notoriety, but will not save Black (or any) lives in any conceivable time frame.

Sometimes academia allies with progressive politicians. As Harvard University-affiliated Democratic pollster John Della Volpe boasted at a recent political science conference,15 Black Lives Matter offers dramatic symbols that can measurably increase progressive voter turnout. Left unsaid was that the dominant BLM narrative both misleads voters and gets Black people killed—or that questioning it can be risky. This tension likely explains why, after careful, peer-reviewed empirical research by economist Roland Fryer found that controlling for suspect behavior, police do not disproportionately kill Black people (White suspects were in fact 27 percent more likely to be shot), then-Harvard University President Claudine Gay tried to fire Fryer.

She accused the tenured professor, an African- American academic star, of the use of inappropriate language, an offense for which Harvard’s own policies dictated sensitivity training. Fryer’s published findings were likely seen as attacking “sacred” beliefs and threatening external grants received on the premise of overwhelming police racism.16 As renegade journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon shows, the same dynamic holds in newsrooms, where reporting on Black Lives Matter’s spectacular failures to save Black (and other) lives is a firing offense.17 Indeed, were we not tenured professors at public universities in the South, we could likely get in trouble for writing essays like this one.

So what if progressives use anti-police demagoguery to win a few elections and grants? Isn’t that just election campaign “gamesmanship?” Does that hurt anyone? Yes, it does. Since the Black Lives era began, fatal ambushes of police officers have risen dramatically, almost certainly due to demonizing of the police. More importantly, Black Lives Matter de-policing policies seem to have taken thousands of (mainly Black) lives.18 During the BLM era, dated here as beginning in 2012, the age-adjusted Black homicide rate has almost doubled, rising from 18.6 murders per 100,000 African-American citizens in 2011 to 32 murders per 100,000 in 2021.19 Murders of Black males rose to an astonishing peak of 56/100,000 during this period (in 2021), while Black women (9.0/100,000) came to “boast” a higher homicide rate than White men (6.4) and all American men (8.2).

Yet for all our lambasting of Black Lives Matter, police unions and leaders have not covered themselves in glory in the BLM era, largely supporting precinct level decisions to de-police the dangerous parts (“no-go”- or “slow-go”-zones) of major cities, and refusing to support reforms that do cut crime but discomfort cops. Astonishingly, high homicide rates have little or no impact on whether police commissioners keep their jobs, giving cops few incentives to do better rather than just well enough.20

On the positive side, the political system is starting to respond to public anger from the increased crime and disorder of the Black Lives Matter era. In its presidential transition, the Biden administration largely sidelined the BLM portions of its racial reckoning agenda—even as it poured money into counterproductive and arguably racist DEI initiatives.21 More impactful responses came at the level of major city governments, which are those most affected by crime and disorder. Across progressive cities such as Seattle, Portland, and New York and less progressive cities like Philadelphia and Dallas, voters have started distancing themselves from Black Lives Matter policies. For the first time in decades, Seattle elected a Republican prosecutor (supported by most Democratic leaders). Uber-left Portland elected a prosecutor who was a Republican until recently. The Dallas mayor switched parties (from Democratic to Republican) out of frustration with progressive opposition to his (successful) efforts to cut crime by hiring and empowering more cops. New York elected a tough on crime (Democratic) former police captain to replace the prior progressive mayor. Even uber-progressives like Minnesota Governor and 2024 Democratic VP candidate Tim Walz did U-turns on issues such as whether police belong in schools, and what they can do while there.

Yet cops can do far more, and the Big Apple has shown the way. How that happened suggests that color matters, but the color is not Black so much as green.

New York City’s Turnaround: How a White Tourist’s Murder Made Black Lives Truly Matter

Sometimes history is shaped by unexpected (and undesirable) events that have positive impacts. A case in point is Brian Watkins, the 22-year-old White tourist from Provo, Utah, who was brutally murdered in front of his family on Labor Day Weekend in 1990 in NYC, while in town to watch the U.S. Open tennis tournament. His murder had historic impacts on New York, ultimately saving thousands of (mainly) Black lives, but it did not have the same impact nationally, a fact that says volumes about whose lives matter and why.

In 1990, New York City was among the most dangerous cities in the country. Today, as we show in our article “Which Police Departments Make Black Lives Matter?”22 despite high poverty, New York has the sixth lowest homicide rate among the 50 largest cities. That might not have happened without the brutal murder of Brian Watkins. As City Limits detailed in a 20-year retrospective23 on the Watkins killing, in 1990 New York City resembled the dystopian movie Escape from New York, with a record 2,245 homicides, including 75 murders of children under 16 and 35 killings of cab drivers, forced to risk their lives daily for their livelihoods. For their part, police, who found themselves outnumbered and sometimes outgunned, killed 41 civilians, around four times more than today.

The city that never sleeps was awash in blood, but NYC residents did not bleed equitably. Mainly, in what would turn out to be a common pattern, low-income minorities killed other low-income minorities in underpoliced neighborhoods. To use the first person for a bit, as I (Reilly) note in my 2020 book Taboo,24 and Rafael Mangual points out in his Criminal Injustice (2022),25 felony crime such as murder is remarkably concentrated by income and race. In my hometown of Chicago, the 10 relatively small community areas with the highest murder rates contain 53 percent of all recorded homicides in the city and have a total murder rate of 61.7/100,000, versus 18.2/100,000 for the rest of the city—with those districts included. In the even larger New York City, few wealthy businesspeople or tourists were affected by the most serious crime even during its horrendous peak.

Against that backdrop, after spending the day watching the U.S. Open, the Watkins family left their upscale hotel to enjoy Moroccan food in Greenwich Village. While waiting on a subway platform, they were assaulted by a “wolfpack” scouting for mugging victims so they could steal enough money to pay the $10-per-man cover charge at a nightclub.

In those bad old days, many young New Yorkers committed an occasional mugging to supplement their incomes, but this attack was unusually violent. In a matter of seconds, Brian Watkins’ brother and sister-in-law were roughed up while his father was knocked to the ground and slashed with a box-cutter, cutting his wallet out of his pocket. Brian’s mother was pulled down by her hair and kicked in the face and chest. While trying to protect her, Brian was fatally stabbed in the chest with a spring-handled butterfly knife. Not realizing the extent of his injury—a severed pulmonary artery—Brian chased the thieves until collapsing by a toll booth, dying shortly thereafter.

In 1990, New York City was among the most dangerous cities in the country. Today... despite high poverty, New York has the sixth lowest homicide rate among the 50 largest cities.

In Turnaround: How America’s Top Cop Reversed the Crime Epidemic,26 then-New York City Transit Police Chief and later NYPD Commissioner William Bratton recalled the Watkins killing as “among the worst nightmares” city leaders could imagine: “A tourist in the subway during a high-profile event with which the mayor is closely associated … gets stabbed and killed by a wolfpack. The murder made international headlines.”

Within hours a team of top cops apprehended the perpetrators, which just shows what police can do when a crime, such as the murder of a wealthy tourist, is made an actual priority. Twenty years later, rotting in a prison cell, Brian’s killer sadly recalled his decisions that night as the worst of his life. Had police been in control of the subways, the teen might have been deterred from making the decision that in essence ended two lives.

Unlike the great majority of the other 2,244 murder victims in 1990, the dead Brian mattered by name to Big Apple politicians. Bratton wrote that New York Governor Mario Cuomo “understood the impact this killing could have on New York tourism.” With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, two days after the Watkins murder, Bratton got a call out of the blue from a top aid to the Governor asking whether transit police could make the subways safe if the state kicked in $40 million—big money in 1990. For Bratton, “this was the turnaround I needed.”

With the cash for more transit police, communications and data analytic tools to put cops where crimes occurred, and better police armaments, subway crime plummeted. Later, NYPD Commissioner Bratton drove homicide down by over a third in just two years with similar tactics, and by replacing hundreds of ineffective administrators with better leaders, as Patrick Wolf and one of us (Maranto) detail in “Cops, Teachers, and the Art of the Impossible: Explaining the Lack of Diffusion of Innovations That Make Impossible Jobs Possible.”27 In another article coauthored with Domonic Bearfield,28 we estimated that as of 2020, NYPD’s reforms saved over 20,000 lives, disproportionately of Black Americans.

NYPD leadership made ineffective leaders get better or get out. This is a tool almost never used by police reformers at the level of city governance.

So how did NYPD do it? New York got serious about both recruiting and training great, tough cops and about holding them accountable. In the 1990s, NYPD Commissioner William Bratton imposed CompStat, a statistical program reporting crimes by location in real time. In weekly meetings, NYPD leaders praised precinct commanders who cut crime and grilled others. They made ineffective managers get better or get out. Homicides fell by over a third in just two years, followed by steady declines since.

Let us repeat part of that for emphasis: NYPD leadership made ineffective leaders get better or get out. This is a tool almost never used by police reformers at the level of city governance, who don’t want to be hated by officers, and who are also hamstrung by civil service rules and union contracts that make it difficult to terminate bad police officers, and almost impossible to jettison bad managers. NYPD was the exception.

Because of obscure personnel reforms by Benjamin Ward, the first Black NYPD commissioner and someone who wanted to shake up NYPD’s Irish Mafia of officers, where promotion often depended on what some called “the friends and family plan,” NYPD commissioners have unusual power over personnel. The commissioner can bust precinct commanders and other key leaders back in rank almost to the street level. Since retirement is based on pay at an officer’s rank, this essentially forces managers into early retirement, with the commissioner getting to pick their replacements rather than having seniority or other civil service rules determine the outcomes.

Legendary police leader John Timoney, who was Bratton’s Chief of Department in NYPD before going on to successfully run departments in Philadelphia and Miami, told us that he had the ability to personally fire over 300 cops in NYPD compared to just two in Philadelphia—the two being himself and his driver. In the latter city, everyone else was covered by civil service tenure.29 Politicians such as Tim Walz were publicly emphasizing their focus on saving Black lives, but showed no enthusiasm for personnel reforms such as these, which could actually get the job done.

Of course, firing cops can’t work if you don’t know who to fire. Since the mid-1990s, NYPD strengthened its internal affairs unit to get off the streets unprofessional cops in the mold of Minneapolis’ Derek Chauvin, the officer who killed George Floyd and who had 18 prior citizen complaints, before rather than after a disaster. Longtime NYPD Internal Affairs leader Charles Campisi details this process well in Blue on Blue: An Insider’s Story of Good Cops Catching Bad Cops.30

Yet none of this might have happened without the brutal murder of Brian Watkins. In a real sense, the Watkins family suffered so thousands could live. They deserve a monument.

How to Make Black (and All) Lives Matter

Rather than supporting neo-Marxist activism portraying police as fascists enforcing “late-stage capitalist technocratic white supremacy,” or similarly impenetrable academic jargon that seeks to pit citizens against police and fails to solve problems, we see police departments as public organizations staffed by unionized employees, some of whom are public servants, some of whom mainly serve themselves, and most of whom are somewhere in between.31 Just like companies, some police departments are incredibly successful; some are so ineffective that it might make sense to defund them and start over … and some—most by far—are somewhere in between.

So the real question for those of us who want to make police better rather than run for office or get government grants, is how we can get low-performing police departments to learn from the best, and how we can get the mayors, city councils, governors, and state legislatures overseeing police to enact the sort of civil service reforms, like higher pay coupled with abolishing civil service tenure, that are likely to succeed in getting police to make all lives matter.

Black Lives Matter de-policing policies seem to have taken thousands of (mainly Black) lives. During the BLM era … the age-adjusted Black homicide rate has almost doubled, rising from 18.6 murders per 100,000 African-American citizens in 2011 to 32 murders per 100,000 in 2021.

For us, the key to get elected politicians to take police reform seriously is to make police reform a serious election issue, rather than how well one virtue signals for BLM. To do that, first and foremost, failed police departments and the mayors and city council members running them must be shamed into action. Businesses should be encouraged to relocate from dangerous cities to safe ones. That starts with data.

To make that happen, earlier this year, in a leading public administration journal, along with Patrick Wolf, we published “Which Police Departments Make Black Lives Matter?,” an article that anyone can download for free.32 Here, we ranked police in the 50 largest U.S. cities (using 2020 statistics, but the overall rankings were stable from 2015–2020) by their effectiveness in keeping homicides low and not taking civilian lives, while adjusting for poverty, which makes policing more difficult. Some departments excel. On our Police Professionalism Index, New York City easily takes first place, just as it did in 2015. The top 18 cities also include Boston, MA; Mesa, AZ; Raleigh, NC; Virginia Beach, VA; five California cities including San Diego and San Jose; and five Texas cities including El Paso and Austin.

In contrast, by a wide margin, Baltimore ranked dead last (as it did in 2015). Baltimore’s homicide rate (56.12 per 100,000 population) was roughly 15 times higher than New York’s, and Baltimore police kill roughly ten times as many civilians per capita as NYPD. Baltimoreans should be outraged, particularly since, as noted above, top-ranked NYPD used to be in Baltimore’s league. Fifty years ago, NYPD killed about 100 civilians annually, compared to 10 today. In 1990, New York City had 2,245 homicides, mostly people of color, compared to just 462 in 2020. And, as discussed earlier, reforming NYPD saved tens of thousands of lives, mainly Black lives, while at the same time reducing incarceration.

If democracy means anything, it means the ability to influence government, and the first duty of government is protecting life and property. For too long, this most basic of needs has been denied to people without means, who are disproportionately people of color. If we want to increase trust in government, we must start with the police. Doing that requires real data, not agitprop that paints cops as racist killers. To enable that, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) needs to rank large cities on their policing, in a manner we did, awarding those doing well and calling out those doing badly. The DOJ should also issue reports on which cities enable their police chiefs to terminate problematic officers.

This methodical approach would offend leftist cultural warriors and rightist police unions alike. On the local levels, to copy NYPD’s success, voters in Baltimore and other poorly policed cities such as Kansas City, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, and Miami, must ask pointed questions about their police, such as:

• Can police chiefs hire and retain the great officers they need? If not, why not?
• Can police chiefs fire subordinates who are not up to their tough jobs?
• Are there enough cops to do the job?
• Do police use CompStat to copy what works in fighting crime?
• Does the internal affairs unit hold brutal cops accountable?

Building a great police department takes time, but the NYPD has shown how it can be done. It is long past time to stop political virtue signaling and start reforming policing to save all lives.

She murdered her patients. At least, that’s what the prosecutors said. All it took to get powerful opioids from California internist Lisa Tseng was a brief conversation. No X-rays. No lab tests. No medical exam. Video surveillance shows an undercover officer posing as a patient who asks Dr. Tseng for methadone (an opioid) and Xanax (an anti-anxiety medication), drugs that can form a deadly cocktail when combined. He tells her that he is in recovery and takes the drugs at night with alcohol to “take the edge off.” He makes clear that he is not in pain and does not plan to use the medications to treat a medical condition. Tseng writes the prescription—after the agent hands over $75 cash.1

Did she know what she was doing was wrong? Tseng received desperate calls from patients’ families and friends concerned that their loved ones were hooked on the meds she prescribed.2 She did not stop. Coroners and law enforcement agents called Dr. Tseng each time a patient died—14 in total.3 She did not stop. Perhaps she thought the financial perks outweighed the risks. Dr. Tseng’s reckless prescribing raked in $3,000 a day and exceeded $5 million in three years. 

Dr. Tseng’s prescribing spree ended in 2015, when a jury convicted her on three counts of second-degree murder.4 In 2016, Superior Court Judge George G. Lomeli imposed a prison sentence of 30 years to life in prison. The trial lasted eight weeks. It included 77 witnesses and 250 pieces of evidence. Families of overdose victims praised the judge’s decision and concluded that “justice has been served.”5

Dr. Tseng was the first California physician ever convicted of murder for overprescribing opioids, and one of the first in the United States. Her case was a turning point for law enforcement because it created a playbook for subsequent prosecutions and because it sent a clear signal to physicians across the nation: you could be next. “The message this case sends is you can’t hide behind a white lab coat and commit crimes,” declared Deputy District Attorney John Niedermann. “A lab coat and stethoscope are no shield.” Medical experts warned that Tseng’s case could scare physicians away from prescribing opioids and leave chronic pain patients to suffer without care.6

Illustration by Izhar Cohen for SKEPTIC

Law enforcement is responsible for making sure that doctors only prescribe opioids legally, which is no easy task. However, some physicians make it easy when they engage in behavior that is explicitly and undeniably criminal. These are the cases that make headlines. Opioids are illegal by default. Federal law gives doctors a special exemption to prescribe them for legitimate medical purposes, particularly pain. But how can a physician be legitimate if he has a parking lot filled with out-of-state license plates and a line of patients snaking around the building as if they are waiting to buy concert tickets? If he asks the patient to state his blood pressure while a brand-new blood pressure cuff hangs on the wall, unused? If he can’t tell the difference between a dog X-ray and a human one? 

Doctors are hard to investigate and even harder to prosecute. It is difficult for judges and juries to wrap their minds around the idea that physicians perpetrate crimes.

It sounds far-fetched, but in July 2012, Glendora, CA, police arrested physician Rolando Lodevico Atiga for prescribing powerful opioids to an undercover officer. The officer used a dog X-ray—with the tail clearly visible—to prove he had a bad back. Police Captain Tim Staab told CBS, “Either Sparky the dog really needs Percocet or this doctor is a drug dealer masquerading as a physician.”7 The medical board suspended Dr. Atiga’s license in August 2012.8 Then criminal proceedings were suspended in 2013 due to Dr. Atiga’s poor mental health and inability to stand trial.9

Doctors are hard to investigate and even harder to prosecute. It is difficult for judges and juries to wrap their minds around the idea that physicians perpetrate crimes. The image of the “dirty doctor” just doesn’t mesh with the popular image of “doctor as savior.” And many overdoses involve multiple drugs, making it hard to pin a death on a single drug or a single doctor.10 Still, over the past decade, judges and juries have put physicians behind bars. Law enforcement arrests scores of physicians for opioid crimes each year. They charge physicians with the same counts as illicit drug dealers: fraud, unlawful distribution, racketeering, manslaughter, and murder.11 Doctors are legally required to keep extensive records that investigators use to prove criminal activity. Physicians who avoid arrest still face steep penalties, such as losing their medical license, losing the ability to prescribe controlled substances, or paying a hefty fine. 

It was not always this way. As early as the mid-1990s, evidence showed that physicians were generously doling out opioids, but the first murder conviction did not occur until 2016.12 What happened over those twenty years that unleashed prosecutors’ power and helped them win cases against providers? The answer lies in organizational change, education, and technological innovation. New organizations centered on criminal healthcare providers cropped up, enforcement agents came together to share strategies, and Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) spread across the nation that made targeting physicians a far easier task. 

Reshaping the Enforcement Landscape 

A lot has changed since the days when pill mills popped up like weeds and law enforcement had no way to stop them. Enforcement agencies have responded to the opioid crisis with three strategies: (1) organizing task forces, (2) educating investigators, and (3) using PDMPs. Together, these efforts have made physician cases easier and faster to initiate, even if some challenges persist. 

Task forces are subunits of enforcement agencies that bring together individuals who have different resources and expertise to address a common goal. Federal agencies such as the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and local agencies such as sheriffs’ departments have devoted themselves to physician cases by creating task forces centered on prescription opioids. DEA task forces do much of the heavy lifting, a major difference from decades ago. 

The DEA plays the biggest federal role in regulating opioids. The DEA’s Office of Diversion Control oversees registrants—physicians, pharmacies, hospitals, manufacturers, wholesalers, and drug distributors—who must register with the agency in order to provide controlled substances. The Controlled Substances Act (CSA) designates these registrants as part of a “closed system of distribution,” which means that the DEA tracks everyone who handles opioids along the supply chain and accounts for every transaction. The DEA monitors opioid transactions using the Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System (ARCOS), a database that tracks controlled substances all the way from manufacture to public distribution.13

“The message this case sends is … a lab coat and stethoscope are no shield.” 
—Deputy District Attorney John Niedermann

For decades, the Office of Diversion Control14 was considered a lesser part of the DEA, and the agents who worked for it—known as Diversion Investigators (DIs)—were treated as less important than Special Agents (SAs), who work for the Operations Division. The position of DI was originally created to relieve SAs from the burden of inspecting and auditing manufacturers and distributors of controlled substances as mandated by the CSA. Handing off those tasks to DIs freed SAs to focus on heroin and cocaine trafficking. This hierarchy persisted into the late 1990s, the heyday of opioid prescribing, when physicians treated pain as a fifth vital sign and were urged to treat it aggressively. With physicians and regulators on board with generous opioid prescribing, the diversion office found itself underfunded and understaffed. Laura Nagel, who was appointed head of the DEA’s Office of Diversion Control in 2000, led DIs who struggled to get resources and respect. Unaware of the giant opioid wave poised to crest a few short years later, SAs thought prescription opioids were nothing more than a child’s version of the hard drugs they pursued. 

That all changed in the early 2000s when, for the first time in U.S. history, Americans were more likely to overdose on prescription drugs than illegal ones.15 Suddenly, DIs were in high demand. In late 2006, the DEA created task forces called Tactical Diversion Squads. These included DIs, SAs, and Task Force Officers (TFOs), who are local police deputized to work with the DEA. DIs understood healthcare norms; SAs could arrest people; and TFOs had fine-grained knowledge of their communities. This arrangement created the organizational synergy needed to pursue doctors. 

Local agencies such as police departments and sheriff’s departments also created narcotics task forces that enabled them to exchange information with other local agencies. Members of such task forces can represent various police departments, the highway patrol, the district attorney’s office, the department of healthcare services, and the medical board. They may also ally with the FBI, the DEA, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). 

Federal and local agencies have complementary resources. Local police departments have insufficient funding to do provider cases, so they collaborate with federal law enforcement either formally by sending one of their officers to the DEA’s task force or informally by working cases with them. Federal agencies have more money and equipment. They can perform federal wire taps, which are expensive and require specialized technology. They can also afford expert witnesses, whose expertise is crucial in building a solid case against a doctor. Local agencies, on the other hand, have more agents, so they are better equipped to conduct undercover investigations and process the mountains of paperwork that a doctor case generates. 

Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) have dramatically transformed the ways that investigators and prosecutors conduct cases against providers.

Task forces are only one site of information exchange. Enforcement agents have found various ways to break down information silos and thereby distribute knowledge. Years of failed attempts have taught investigators and prosecutors both what works, and what doesn’t. They know which questions to ask, which behaviors to look for, and which charges to bring. When task force members, eager to share what they had learned with others, lacked formal venues in which to do so, they got creative. 

Together, new organizations, new knowledge, and new technology expand law enforcement capacity. These changes are evident when we consider what investigation and prosecution look like today. Let’s turn to PDMPs as an example. 

Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs 

PDMPs have dramatically transformed the ways that investigators and prosecutors conduct cases against providers. New organizational developments paved the way for monitoring programs to have the greatest impact. Enforcement agencies’ impetus to investigate providers coincided with the arrival of technology that made those investigations easier and faster. Enforcement agents find both provider and patient data useful—the former because it shows patterns of providers’ behavior and the latter data because it helps law enforcement convince patients to become confidential informants in exchange for leniency in their own cases. 

Healthcare providers have direct access to the database, but law enforcement access is more complicated. State laws restrict which enforcement agencies can get access and how. Some states give law enforcement direct access to data. In those states, enforcement agents have their own login to the system but can only legally access the data in the process of an active case, meaning that they are already investigating a specific crime. They can’t just search through the database to see what they find. Other states require law enforcement to request access from the agency that houses the PDMP, and the agency returns only information that is relevant to the case. Still other states require enforcement agents to obtain a warrant or a subpoena to access the data.16, 17 Regardless of how they get the information, PDMPs are a boon to law enforcement because they make tasks easier and more efficient. 

A prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) is an electronic database that tracks controlled substance prescriptions in a state. (Source: CDC.gov)

Physician cases are reactive instead of proactive, which creates a barrier to starting an investigation. Enforcement agents say that they do not go out looking for bad doctors but find them through tips they receive from a patient, a parent, a healthcare provider, or another agency. They use information from tips to gather evidence and determine whether the case is worth pursuing. For a provider to come under law enforcement scrutiny, someone has to notice their behavior, feel compelled to do something, and know who to call.

The legwork necessary to investigate a physician traditionally posed a second barrier because investigators had to travel from pharmacy to pharmacy to gather the physician’s prescriptions. Now, thanks to the PDMP, that legwork has become deskwork. Instead of spending time on a potentially fruitless pharmacy expedition, enforcement agents simply look up the physician in the database or request access to information from the agency that controls it. Investigators can obtain a physician’s prescribing history, analyze prescribing patterns, and link their findings to other databases without setting foot outside the office. 

Physician cases are decidedly unsexy. There are no drugs. There are no guns. There is paperwork. Stacks and stacks of paperwork.

PDMP data are a starting point. They do not make a case alone. Investigators examine the data from various angles and try to come up with alternative explanations for the patterns they see.

PDMPs also have their drawbacks. Investigators can use the database to track physicians, but a smart criminal physician also uses the database to monitor their patients and identify potential undercover investigators. People who are addicted to or diverting medications usually have a long PDMP report because they are actively trying to obtain opioids from various physicians. Undercover agents do not have a report at all, so running a report is a way to root out narcs. Knowing this, law enforcement finds ways to create fake reports so that they blend in with other patients. Overall, PDMPs benefit law enforcement because they improve the speed and accuracy of their investigations. Better investigations lead to more successful prosecutions (that is, a greater percentage of convictions). 

The War on Drug Doctors 

Drug cases capture media attention for a reason. Whether on popular TV shows or the evening news, drug cases are sexy. Towering bags of confiscated drugs and arrays of automatic rifles captivate audiences. This stagecraft also helps to justify the War on Drugs. Props such as drugs and guns show that the “bad guys,” the drug dealers, are armed and dangerous. They also show how desperately we need the “good guys,” the investigators and prosecutors, to keep the bad guys off the street. 

Photo by Wesley Tingey / Unsplash

By comparison, physician cases are decidedly unsexy. There are no drugs. There are no guns. There is paperwork. Stacks and stacks of paperwork. Not only do prosecutors have to prove to judges and juries that doctors—professionals revered as pillars of our society—are criminals, but they have to do so using something as uninspiring as paperwork. It’s a tough sell.

This essay was excerpted and adapted by the author from Policing Patients: Treatment and Surveillance on the Frontlines of the Opioid Crisis. Copyright © 2024 by Elizabeth Chiarello. Reprinted by permission of Princeton University Press.

Pseudoscience can often survive because of the continuous publication and dissemination of alleged new discoveries that cast doubt on the findings of “official science.” Mass media regularly republish these “discoveries,” which question otherwise clear and well-established findings. The Shroud of Turin is a perfect example: each year, new statements and new “studies” surface, and instill in the public the (false) idea that there is sufficient evidence to think that the relic is not medieval, but does in fact date back to the time of Christ.

For example, in recent weeks newspapers around the world have reported1 that a group of Italian researchers discovered an innovative way to date the fabric of the Shroud of Turin, and that this dating disproved the results of radiocarbon dating carried out in 1988 (which had placed the creation of the Shroud to somewhere between the 13th and 14th centuries). According to these media reports, the cloth is likely to be around 2,000 years old.

However, this “information” is incorrect, and the media did not bother to check the reliability of what they published. If we examine the reports closely, here is what actually happened:

1. The article by the Italian scholars was published in 2022, so it is not new.2 The simple facts are that a news outlet in the U.S. broke the news two years late—and then many others simply copied from it.
2. The proposed dating system is not normally used nor has it been validated by the scientific community. It is based on the use of X-rays (Wide- Angle X-ray Scattering, or WAXS), which are supposed to measure the degradation of cellulose fibers. This system was invented in 2019 by these very same authors, and for the purpose of dating the Shroud, and so is not used by anyone else.3
3. The method is highly unreliable, because tissue aging is strongly influenced by environmental factors, such as humidity, temperature, light exposure, storage conditions, and the possible presence of microorganisms or of various chemicals, all of which are unpredictable variables that can heavily alter the results. Thus, it cannot provide a reliable dating that is remotely comparable to that provided by the proven Carbon-14 method, which dates the Shroud as being of medieval origin.
4. The inventors of the WAXS method are not neutral scientists; they are sindonologists (i.e., people who study the Shroud of Turin from a believing perspective; from the Greek word sindòn, used in the Gospels to define the type of fine fabric, undoubtedly linen, with which the corpse of Jesus was believed to be wrapped), and who for years have been trying hard to prove that the Shroud is authentic. None of them are experts in either dating or textiles. The main proponents of the research are Giulio Fanti and Liberato De Caro. Both share the commonality of being followers of the Italian pseudomystic Maria Valtorta, who died in 1961, and who, bedridden by illness, told of receiving heavenly messages and seeing the entire life of Christ, which she described in many books. Although the Catholic Church has put these books on the Index (that is, a catalog of writings condemned as contrary to faith or morals), Fanti and De Caro believe in Valtorta’s visions. Fanti also believes he received personal messages from Jesus and Our Lady, and De Caro, a deacon, is known for his belief in creationism.
5. The authors were never allowed to extract material directly from the Shroud. What they used was a very small sample (approx. 0.5 mm × 1 mm), which they claim originally belonged to the Shroud.
6. Between 2014 and 2022, these two authors have already invented four different systems to date textiles in order to authenticate the Shroud: measurement of the mechanical properties of individual linen fibers, Raman spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (Fanti), and WAXS (De Caro).
7. Their conclusions are considered so unreliable that even a journal published by the Center for Sindonology in Turin (which pursues proof of the Shroud’s authenticity) urged people to be cautious of their conclusions.4

Display of the Shroud in the chapel of the Dukes of Savoy; miniature from the Prayer Book donated in 1559 by Cristoforo Duc of Moncalieri to Margaret of Valois. Turin, Royal Library, Varia 84, f. 3v. Courtesy of the Ministry for Cultural Heritage and Activities, Regional Directorate for Cultural and Landscape Heritage of Piedmont

Around that same time, an article published in The Telegraph5 (and later recycled by other outlets) garnered significant interest. It stated that “new research by Cicero Moraes, a world leader in forensic facial reconstruction software, showed it could not have enveloped a corpse.” In fact, “the expert found the image on the shroud could only be created if a cloth was placed over a bas-relief of a human figure, such as a shallow stone carving.” Cicero Moraes is right, but his research is not particularly groundbreaking. For at least four centuries, we have known that the body image on the Shroud is comparable to an orthogonal projection onto a plane, which certainly could not have been created through contact with a three-dimensional body.

Without any need for computer imaging, practical experiments of putting a piece of cloth on a statue or on a human body have been conducted and described in a book published exactly four hundred years ago by French historian Jean-Jacques Chifflet.6 A little over two hundred years later, in the 19th century, Italian historian Lazzaro Giuseppe Piano wrote: “Let the face of a statue be dyed with color and let a white cloth be applied to it; if, after having pressed it a bit by hand, the cloth is removed and spread out, one will see on it a distorted image, much wider than the face itself.”7 Cicero Moraes has certainly created some beautiful images with the help of software, and for that his efforts are to be appreciated, but he certainly did not uncover anything that we did not already know.

Why study a shroud?

I have devoted myself to studying the Shroud of Turin for over a decade,8 along with all the faces of sindonology, and the set of scientific disciplines tasked with determining the authenticity of such relics. My work began with an in-depth analysis of the theory linking the Knights Templar to the relic,9 and the theory according to which the Mandylion of Edessa (more on this below) and the Shroud are one and the same.10 Studying the fabric also revealed that the textile has a complex structure that would have required a sufficiently advanced loom, that is, a horizontal treadle loom with four shafts, probably introduced by the Flemish artisans in the 13th century, while the archaeological record provides clear evidence that the Shroud is completely different from all the cloths woven in ancient Palestine.11

As a historian I was more interested in the history of the Shroud than in determining its authenticity as the burial cloth of Jesus, although the evidence is clear that it was not. That said, for a historiographical reconstruction seeking to address the history of the relationship between faith and science in relation to relics, the Shroud does offer a useful case for understanding how insistence on a relic’s authenticity, along with a lack of interest on the part of mainstream science, leaves ample room for pseudoscientific arguments.

Relics

The Christian cult of relics revolves around the desire to perpetuate the memory of illustrious figures and encourage religious devotion towards them. Initially limited to veneration of the (sometimes alleged) bodies of martyrs, over the centuries it extended to include the bodies of saints and, finally, objects that had come into contact with them. As Christianity spread, the ancient custom of making pilgrimages to the burial places of saints was accompanied by the custom of transferring their relics (or parts of them) to the furthest corners of the Christian world. These transfers, called “translations,” had several effects:

1. They increased devotion towards the person from whom the relic derived.
2. They were believed to protect against war, natural disasters, and disease, and to attract healings, conversions, miracles, and visions.
3. They heightened interest in the place hosting the relics, thus attracting pilgrims and so enriching both the church and the city that housed them.
4. They increased the prestige of the owners of relics.

Relics are objects without intrinsic or objective value outside of the specific religious environment that attributes a significance to them. In a religious environment, however, they become semiophores, or “objects which were of absolutely no use, but which, being endowed with meaning, represented the invisible.”12 However, enthusiasm for relics tended to wane over time unless it was periodically reawakened through constant efforts or significant events, such as festivals, acts of worship, or translations, along with claims of healings, apparitions, and miracles. When a relic fails to attract attention to itself, or loses such appeal, it becomes nearly indistinguishable from any other object.

As the demand for relics grew among not only the faithful masses but also the fortunate abbots, bishops, prelates, and princes owning or associated with them, the supply inevitably increased. One of the effects of this drive was the frenzied search for ancient relics in holy places. Though the searches were often conducted in good faith, our modern perspective, equipped with greater historical and scientific expertise, can hardly consider most of these relics to be authentic. It was thus almost inevitable that relic intermediaries and dealers emerged—some honest, believing, brokers, but others outright dishonest fraudsters. There were so many of the latter that St. Augustine of Hippo famously spoke out against the trade in martyrs’ relics as early as the 5th century.

The Matter of Relic Authenticity

For a long time, many scholars did not consider relics to be objects deserving of interest to professional historians because the cult of veneration surrounding them was regarded as a purely devotional set of practices. Historians who study relics from the perspective of the history of piety, devotion, worship, beliefs, secular or ecclesiastical politics, and social and economic impact, should also speak to the origin of such relics, and hence their authenticity. In the case of relics of lesser value—those that have been downgraded, forgotten, undervalued, or removed from worship—the historian’s task is relatively simple.

By contrast, historians and scientists face greater resistance when dealing with fake relics that still attract great devotional interest. Many historians sidestep the authenticity issue by overlooking the question of the relic’s origin, instead focusing only on what the faithful have believed over time and the role of the relic in history. While this approach is legitimate, what people most want to know about holy relics like the Shroud of Turin today is their authenticity.

The Shroud of Turin is part of the trove of Christ-related relics that were never mentioned in ancient times. When the search for relics in the Holy Land began—with the discovery of the (alleged) true cross, belatedly attributed to Helena, mother of the emperor Constantine—no one at that time ever claimed to have found Jesus’ burial cloths, nor is there any record of anyone having thought to look for them.

There is more than one shroud.

The earliest travel accounts of pilgrims visiting the sites of Jesus in the 4th century show that people venerated various relics, but they do not mention a shroud. By the beginning of the 6th century, pilgrims to Jerusalem were shown what were claimed to be the spear with which Jesus was stabbed, the crown of thorns, the reed and sponge of his passion, the chalice of the Last Supper, the tray on which John the Baptist’s head was placed, the bed of the paralytic healed by Jesus, the stone on which the Lord left an imprint of his shoulders, and the stone where Our Lady sat to rest after dismounting from her donkey. But no shroud. It was not until the second half of the 6th century that pilgrims began to mention relics of Jesus’ burial cloths being in Jerusalem, albeit with various doubts as to where they had been preserved and what form they took.

The next step was the systematic and often unverified discovery of additional—and preposterous— relics from the Holy Land, including the bathtub of baby Jesus, his cradle, nappy, footprints, foreskin, umbilical cord, milk teeth, the tail of the donkey on which He entered Jerusalem, the crockery from the Last Supper, the scourging pillar, His blood, the relics of the bodies of Jesus’ grandparents and the Three Wise Men, and even the milk from the Virgin Mary and her wedding ring. Obviously, objects related to Jesus’ death and resurrection could easily be included in such a list. Predictably, the movement of such relics from Jerusalem—be they bought, stolen, or forged—reached its peak at the time of the Crusades.

The beginning of the 9th century was a time of intense traffic in relics. One legend, built up around no one less than Charlemagne himself, held that he had made a journey to Jerusalem and obtained a shroud of Jesus. According to this legend, the cloth was then taken to the imperial city of Aachen (in modern Germany), and then, perhaps, to Compiègne, France. There are accounts of a shroud in both cities, and Aachen still hosts this relic today.

The coexistence of these relics in two important religious centers has not prevented other cities from claiming to possess the very same objects. Arles and Cadouin (France), as well as Rome (Italy), all boast a shroud, although in 1933 the one in Cadouin was revealed to be a medieval Islamic cloth. There is an 11th-century holy shroud in the cathedral of Cahors (France) as well as in Mainz (Germany) and Istanbul (Turkey), and dozens of other cities claimed to possess fragments of such a relic.13 An 8th-century sudarium is still venerated in Oviedo, Spain, as if it were authentic.14

The Shroud of Turin

With this background it might not surprise readers to learn that the Shroud of Turin, in fact, is not one of the oldest but rather one of the most recent such relics. It is a large cloth that resembles a long tablecloth of over four meters in length, whose uniqueness is a double monochromatic image that shows the front and back of a man. The man bears marks from flagellation and crucifixion, with various red spots corresponding to where blows were received. The Turin Shroud first appeared in the historical record in France (a place that already hosted many competing shrouds) around 1355 CE. It is different from all the previous shrouds in that the others did not display the image of the dead Christ, and until then no source had ever mentioned a shroud bearing such an image (although Rome hosted the well-known Veil of Veronica, a piece of cloth said to feature an image of the Holy Face of Jesus). The explanation behind its creation can be found in the contemporary development of a cult of devotion centered on the representations of the physical suffering of Christ and His wounded body.

Pilgrimage badge of Lirey (Aube), dated between 1355 and 1410, depicts the first appearance of the Shroud. (Photo © Jean-Gilles Berizzi / RMN-Grand Palais, Musée de Cluny, Musée National du Moyen Âge).

The Shroud of Turin made its first appearance in a small country church built in Lirey, France, and by an aristocratic soldier Geoffroy de Charny. As soon as this relic was put on public display, it immediately became the subject of debate. Two local bishops declared the relic to be fake. In 1389, the bishop of Troyes, France, wrote a letter to the Pope denouncing the falsity of the relic and accusing the canons of the Church of Lirey of deliberate fraud. According to the bishop, the canons had commissioned a skilled artist to create the image, acting out of greed and taking advantage of people’s gullibility. The Pope responded by allowing the canons to continue exhibiting the cloth, but simultaneously obliging them to publicly declare that it was being displayed as a “figure or representation” of the true Shroud of Christ, not the original.

Various erasures and acts of subterfuge were required to cover up these historical events and transform an artistic representation into an authentic shroud of Jesus. The process began after 1453, when the relic was purchased by a noble family, the House of Savoy (and which reigned as Kings of Italy from 1861 to 1946).

Historians loyal to the court constructed a false history of the relic’s origins, deliberately disregarding all the medieval events that cast doubt on its authenticity.

Interpretations of this first part of the history of the Shroud diverge significantly between those who accept the validity of the historical documents and those who reject it. However, the following developments are almost universally agreed upon. Deposited in the city of Chambéry, capital of the Duchy of Savoy, the Shroud became a dynastic relic, that is, an instrument of political-religious legitimization and referenced by the same symbolic language used by other noble European dynasties. After surviving a fire in 1532, the Shroud remained in Chambéry until 1578. It was then transferred to Turin, the duchy’s new capital, where a richly appointed chapel connected to the city’s cathedral was specially built to house it in the 17th century.

Historians loyal to the court constructed a false history of the relic’s origins, deliberately disregarding all the medieval events that cast doubt on its authenticity and attested to the intense reluctance of contemporary ecclesiastical authorities to accept it. In the meantime, the papacy and clergy abandoned their former prudence and began to encourage veneration of the Shroud, established a liturgical celebration, and initiated theological and exegetical debate about it. The court of the Duchy of Savoy, for its part, showed great devotion to its relic and at the same time used it as an instrument of political legitimization,15, 16 seeking to export the Shroud’s fame outside the duchy by gifting painted copies that were in turn treated as relics-by-contact (there are at least 50 such copies known to still exist throughout the world).

Having survived changes of fortune and emerging unscathed from both the rational criticism of the Enlightenment and the turmoil of the Napoleonic period, the Shroud seemed destined to suffer the fate of other similar relics, namely a slow decline. Following a solemn exhibition in 1898, however, the Shroud returned to the spotlight and its reputation began to grow outside Italy as well. Two very important events in the history of the relic took place that year: it was photographed for the first time, and the first historiographical studies of it were published.

Shroud Science

Photography made available to everyone what previously had been viewable by only a few: an image of the shape of Christ’s body and face, scarcely discernible on the cloth but perfectly visible on the photographic plate. It was especially visible in the negative image, which by inverting the tonal values, reducing them to white and black, and accentuating the contrast, revealed the character of the imprint.

“Santo Volto del Divin Redentore” (Holy Face of the Divine Redeemer), a detail of the Shroud of Turin. Photo by Giuseppe Enrie, taken during the 1931 public exhibition of the Shroud of Turin. It is a negative photographic image, meaning that the lighter areas represent the darker areas of the Shroud.

Photographs of the Shroud, accompanied by imprecise technical assessments claiming that the photograph proved that the image could not possibly have been generated artificially, were circulated widely. This prompted scholars to seek through chemistry, physics, and, above all, forensic medicine an explanation for the origins of the image impressed on the cloth. More recently, these disciplines have been joined by palynology, computer science, biology, and mathematics, all aimed at demonstrating the authenticity of the relic experimentally, or at least removing doubts that it might have been a fake. At the beginning of the 20th century, there were many scientific articles published on the Shroud and discussions held in distinguished forums, including the Academy of Sciences in Paris.

The scientist associated with the birth of scientific sindonology is the zoologist Paul Vignon, while Ulysse Chevalier was the first to conduct serious historical investigations of the Shroud. Both were Catholics (the latter indeed being a priest), but they held completely contrasting positions: the former defended the Shroud’s authenticity while the latter denied it. Chevalier was responsible for publishing the most significant medieval documents on the early history of the Shroud, showing how it had been condemned and declarations of its falseness covered up, and wrote the first essays on the history of the Shroud to employ a historical-critical method (Chevalier was an illustrious medievalist at the time). The debate became very heated in the historical and theological fields, and almost all the leading history and theology journals of the time published articles on the Shroud.

After the early 20th century, almost no one applied themselves to thoroughly examining the entirety of the historical records regarding the Shroud (much less comparing it against all the other shrouds). After a period of relative lack of interest, new technologies brought the Shroud back into the limelight. In 1978, a group of American scholars, mostly military employees or researchers associated with the Catholic Holy Shroud Guild, formed the STURP (Shroud of Turin Research Project) and were allowed to conduct a series of direct scientific studies on the relic. They did not find a universally accepted explanation for the origin of the image. Some members of the group used the mass media to disseminate the idea that the image was actually the result of a supernatural event: in this explanation, the image was not the result of a body coming into contact with the cloth, perhaps involving blood, sweat, and burial oils (as believed in previous centuries) but rather caused by irradiation. At this time the two most popular theories formulated—despite their implausibility—as to the historical origin of the Shroud were:

1. The Shroud and the Mandylion of Edessa are one and the same object. (The Mandylion is another miraculous relic known to have existed since at least the 6th century BCE in the form of a towel that, according to the faithful, Jesus used to wipe His face, miraculously leaving the mark of His features on it).
2. The Knights Templar transported the Shroud from the East to the West. (It was based on statements extracted under torture from the Templars during their infamous trial of 1307–1312.)

The clash between sindonology and science reached its peak in 1988; without involving STURP but with permission from the Archbishop of Turin, the Holy See, and the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, a radiocarbon examination was carried out that involved 12 measurements conducted in three different laboratories. As expected, the test provided a date that corresponds perfectly with the date indicated by the historical documents, namely the 13th–14th century. As often happens when a scientific finding contradicts a religious belief, however, from that moment on attempts to invalidate the carbon dating proliferated. These included conspiracy, pollution of the samples, unreliability of the examination, enrichment of the radiocarbon percentage due to the secondary effects of the resurrection, among others.

Dating the Shroud

In 1945, chemist Willard Libby devised the Carbon-14 (C14) radiocarbon dating method. Despite rumors that Libby was against applying the C14 method to the Shroud, I found proof that at least twice he stated precisely the opposite, declaring his own interest in performing the study himself.17 In the early 1970s, the test had been repeatedly postponed, first because it was not yet considered sufficiently reliable, and later because of the amount of cloth that would have to be sacrificed as the procedure is destructive. By the mid-1980s, however, C14 was accepted universally as a reliable system of dating, and was regularly used to date archeological artifacts as well as antiques. Several C14 laboratories offered to perform the testing for free, likely under the assumption that, whatever the result, it would bring them publicity.

The cloth of the Shroud can be assigned with a confidence of 95 percent to a date between 1260 and 1390 CE.

Once Cardinal Ballestrero, who was not the relic’s “owner” but only charged with the Shroud’s protection, had made the decision to proceed, he asked for the support and approval of the Holy See. The Pontifical Academy of Sciences was invested with the responsibility to oversee all operations. For the first time in its history, the papal academy was presided over by a scientist who was not a priest, biophysicist Carlos Chagas Filho. The scientists’ desire was to date the Shroud and nothing more, and they did not want the sindonologists to take part in the procedure. The Vatican’s Secretary of State and the representatives of Turin agreed to supply no more than three samples. Seven laboratories were proposed from which three selected: those at the University of Arizona, Tucson, the University of Oxford, and Zurich Polytechnic, because they had the most experience in dating small archaeological fragments.

The day chosen for the extraction was April 21, 1988. The textile experts examined the fabric and discussed the best place to extract samples; they decided to take a strip from one of the corners, in the same place in which a sample had already been taken for examination in 1973. The strip was divided into smaller pieces and each of the three laboratories received a sample. The procedure was filmed while being performed under the scrutiny of over 30 people.

The results were published in the world’s leading multidisciplinary scientific journal, Nature. Conclusion: the cloth of the Shroud can be assigned with a confidence of 95 percent to a date between 1260 and 1390 CE. In response, the Cardinal of Turin issued this statement:

I think that it is not the case that the Church should call these results into question…. I do not believe that we, the Church, should trouble ourselves to quibble with highly respected scientists who until this moment have merited only respect, and that it would not be responsible to subject them to censure solely because their results perhaps do not align with the arguments of the heart that one can carry within himself.18Prof. Edward Hall (Oxford), Dr. Michael Tite (British Museum) and Dr. Robert Hedges (Oxford), announcing on October 13, 1988, in the British Museum, London, that the Shroud of Turin had been radiocarbon dated to 1260–1390.

Predictably, Shroud believers rejected the findings and started to criticize the Turin officials who had cut the material. Others preferred to deny the validity of the radiocarbon dating.

Sindonologists tried to discredit the result of the C14 testing by claiming the samples were contaminated. This hypothesis asserts that through the centuries the Shroud picked up deposits of more recent elements that would contain a greater quantity of carbon; the radiocarbon dating, having been performed on a linen so contaminated, would thus have produced an erroneous result. Candidates for the role of pollutants are many: the smoke of the candles, the sweat of the hands that touched and held the fabric, the water used to extinguish the fire of 1532, the smoggy Turin skies, pollens, oil, and many more.

On the surface, these may seem convincing, especially to those who do not know how C14 dating works; in reality, however, they are untenable. Indeed, if a bit of smoke and sweat were enough to produce a false result, the Carbon-14 method would have been almost completely useless and certainly not used still to this day to date thousands of objects every year. The truth is rather that the system is not significantly sensitive to any such pollutants.

So assume that the fabric of the Shroud dates back to the 30s of the first century and that the Shroud has suffered exposure to strong pollution (for example, around 1532, the year of the Chambéry fire). To distort the C14 dating by up to 1300 years, it would be necessary that for every 100 carbon atoms originally present in the cloth, another 500 dating to 1532 would have to have been added by contamination. In practice, in the Shroud, the amount of pollutant should be several times higher than the amount of the original linen, which is simply nonsensical.

If we assume that pollution did not happen all at the same time, but gradually over the centuries, there is still no mathematical possibility that pollution that occurred before the 14th century—even if tens of times higher than the quantity of the original material—could give a result of dating to the 14th century. It should be added, moreover, that all samples, before being radiocarbon dated, are subjected to cleaning treatments able to remove the upper patina that has been in contact with outside contaminants and this procedure was also used for the Shroud.

Those who allege that the Shroud was an object that could not be dated because it was subjected to numerous vicissitudes over the intervening centuries ignore the fact that often C14 dating laboratories work on materials in much worse condition, whether coming from archaeological excavations or from places where they have been in contact with various contaminants. For radiocarbon dating purposes, the Shroud is a very clean object.

A more curious variant of the pollution theory suggests that the radiocarbon dating was performed on a sample that was repaired with more recent threads. This would mean that the two (widely recognized) textile experts who were present on the day of the sampling were unable to notice that they had cut a piece so repaired, despite the fact that they had examined the fabric carefully for hours. To distort the result by 13 centuries, the threads employed in the mending would have had to have been more numerous than the threads of the part to be mended. To eliminate any doubt, in 2010 the University of Arizona reexamined a trace of fabric left over from the radiocarbon dating in 1988, and concluded:

We find no evidence for any coatings or dyeing of the linen…. Our sample was taken from the main part of the shroud. There is no evidence to the contrary. We find no evidence to support the contention that the 14C samples actually used for measurements are dyed, treated, or otherwise manipulated. Hence, we find no reason to dispute the original 14C measurements.19

Another possibility raised against C14 dating falls within the sphere of the supernatural. German chemist, Eberhard Lindner, explained to the 1990 sindonology convention that the resurrection of Christ caused an emission of neutrons that enriched the Shroud with radioactive isotope C14.20 Miraculous explanations can be cloaked in scientific jargon, but they simply cannot be tested scientifically, given that there are no available bodies that have risen from the dead emitting protons and neutrons. They are, however, extremely convenient because they are able to solve any problem without having to submit the explanation to the laws of nature.

With all of the available evidence, it is rational to conclude—as some astute historians had already established more than a century ago—that the Shroud of Turin is a 14th century artifact and not the burial cloth of a man who was crucified in the first third of the 1st century CE.

A pediatric neurologist at Boston Children’s Hospital diagnosed my son, Misha, with autism spectrum disorder at age three. At Massachusetts General Hospital, another pediatric neurologist answered my call for a second opinion only to rebuff my hope for a different one. “I did not find him to be very receptive to testing,” the expert sighed. Both neurologists observed that Misha didn’t respond to their request to identify colors, body parts, or animals, that he averted his eyes from theirs, that he pawed their examination table when he didn’t flap his arms. Autism, the doctors said, constituted a lifelong condition. Medical science didn’t understand its causes or cures, and scarcely comprehended the limits of its woes.

How could the neurologists deduce such a bleak judgment from 90 minutes in the bell jar of their examination rooms? If they knew so little about autism, then how could they gavel down a life sentence? I remembered reading somewhere that a properly trained neurologist ought to be able to argue both for and against any single diagnosis in a stepwise process of elimination. I opened the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), leafed to the entry under autism, and plucked out of its basket several inculpating symptoms. Aggrieved, I sought out the Handbook of Differential Diagnosis, a companion volume, and underlined an admonitory passage: “Clinicians typically decide on the diagnosis within the first five minutes of meeting the patient and then spend the rest of the time during their evaluation interpreting (and often misinterpreting) elicited information through this diagnostic bias.” Now what?

As an educated citizen of progressive Cambridge, Massachusetts, I consumed large volumes of such second-hand, semi-digested information. I felt that I should, and believed that I could, develop my own, independent judgment about Misha’s condition. I would do my own research, and I would draw my own conclusions based on what I learned.

I felt that I should, and believed that I could, develop my own, independent judgment. I would do my own research, and I would draw my own conclusions based on what I learned.

These virtues turned out to be constituent features of my error. My skepticism and sense of responsibility blended with my stubbornness as I struggled to evaluate a welter of “holistic” attitudes about medicine and health. Several fixed ideas confronted me. Autism, I read, is neither the psychopathology listed in the DSM nor the organic twist of disease supposed by neurologists. Autism, these alternative sources explained, is one among an epidemic of preventable chronic illnesses that American children contract from toxins in the environment. Holistic therapy, according to another, contains the requisite resources. Vitamin therapy, homeopathy, and antifungal treatment could heal children like Misha of their injuries.

The claim that autism is a treatable, toxin-induced chronic illness is a half-century old. Its history forms a pattern of culture and credulity imprinted on our own time. Today, indeed, as one in every 36 children receive the diagnosis, and as controversies swirl around COVID-19, more people than ever turn to holistic remedies to treat illnesses real and imagined. Homeopathic remedies fly off the shelves at pharmacies, alongside an array of alleged immunity-boosting, anti-inflammatory vitamins and herbal supplements.

Critics view the vogue for holism as the product of an irrational transaction between charlatans and suckers. As I reflect on my experience with Misha in the grassroots of autism agonistes, however, I find the issues don’t divide so tidily. The question isn’t whom to trust or what to believe, but how to make an existential choice between incommensurable propositions.

A family friend introduced me to Mary Coyle, a homeopath at the Real Child Center in New York. Coyle said Misha had likely contracted autism from contaminants in the environment. Was I aware of the epidemic of chronic illnesses afflicting children like him? Some of them, Coyle explained, received diagnoses of asthma, chronic fatigue, or dermatitis. Others were diagnosed with fibromyalgia, Lyme disease, or PANDAS (Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Disorder Associated with Streptococcal Infections). Pathogens lying at the nexus between the body and the environment fooled medical specialists at places like Boston Children’s Hospital and Massachusetts General Hospital. Coyle urged me to abandon their dead-end query, “Is your child on the autism spectrum?” To help Misha, I needed to switch the predicate and envisage a different question: “How toxic is your child?”

“Is your child on the autism spectrum?” To help Misha, I needed to switch the predicate and envisage a different question: “How toxic is your child?”

Why not find out? Although I had never heard of homeopathy or Coyle’s sub-specialty of homotoxicology, I believed that with some study I could probably draw the necessary distinction between evidence and interpretation in the test results. Coyle herself had been trained by conventional physicians before seeking out propaedeutic instruction in holistic medicine. Holism sounded nice.

We started out with an “Energetic Assessment.” Measuring Misha’s rates of “galvanic skin response,” Coyle said, would weigh the balance of electrical vibrations conducted through his pores. Toward this end, she deployed an electrodermal screening device that deciphered imbalances in his “meridians,” or “pathways.” Toxic metals, alas, appeared from the results to be obstructing his “flow” of energy.

With Coyle’s theory confirmed, she referred me to Lawrence Caprio to canvass for food and environmental allergens. Caprio, like Coyle, had defected from conventional to alternative medicine. I learned that while attending medical school at the University of Rome he had befriended a homeopath in the Italian countryside and lived “a very natural lifestyle”; the experience led him to pursue naturopathy.

Misha—Caprio now reported—turned out to be “intolerant” of bread, butter, eggplant, oatmeal, peanuts, potatoes, and tomatoes. Misha also displayed a “sensitivity” to bananas, car exhaust, cheese, chlorine, chocolate, cow milk, dust mites, garlic, onions, oranges, soy beans, and strawberries. Caprio flagged “phenolics” such as malvin (in corn sweeteners) and piperin (in nightshade vegetables and animal proteins).

Next, I mailed urine and stool samples to the Great Plains Laboratory in Kansas. The director there, William Shaw, had worked as a researcher in biochemistry, endocrinology, and immunology at the Centers for Disease Control before he quit and set up his own laboratory. Shaw suspected lithium in “the bottled water craze” and fluoridation in the public water supply as just two of the causes of autism. He came to believe that government scientists woefully misunderstood such sources. He compared their dereliction to the Red Cross’s failure to intervene in the Holocaust. Shaw also found toxic levels of yeast flooding Misha’s intestines.

Homeopathy, naturopathy, and renegade biochemistry cast me outside the institutions of science where Misha’s neurologists practiced. But to grasp how these new realms might be objective correlates of Misha’s condition—and how toxins, foods, and yeast might be culprits—I had only to remind myself of the progressive demonology that made the diagnosis seem plausible.

Industrial corporations have been chewing up the land, choking the air, and despoiling the water, I read, turning the whole country into a hazardous materials zone. I’d read Silent Spring, in which ecologist Rachel Carson claimed that our bodies weren’t shields, but permeable organisms that absorbed particulates. I’d heard Ralph Nader liken air and water pollution to “domestic chemical and biological warfare.” I’d finished Bill McKibben’s The End of Nature with the requisite dread. Listening to progressive news media about “forever chemicals” evoked moods that swung between indignation and paranoia. I paid for eco-friendly cribs, de-leaded the windows in our apartment, and tried to shop organic.

As Coyle, Caprio, and Shaw whispered in my ear, though, my imagination boggled with an even greater catalogue of possible pathogens. Our food contained more pesticides, hormones, and insecticides than I had suspected. Our air is filled with methanol and carbon monoxide. Chlorine, herbicides, and parasites degraded our tap water. Mold festered in our walls, floors, and ceilings. Formaldehyde lurked in our furniture. Heavy metals hid in our lotions, shampoos, and antiperspirants. Synthetic chemical compounds—polychlorinated biphenyls, phthalates, bisphenol A, polybrominated diphenyl ethers—seeped into our toys, diapers, bottles, soaps, and appliances. Even our Wi-Fi, cell phones, refrigerator, light bulbs, and microwave oven emitted radiation through electromagnetic fields.

Had the dystopia of the contemporary world poisoned my son? Coyle, Caprio, and Shaw not only defined autism as a preventable, “biomedical” illness, they traced the mechanism of harm to his pediatrician’s office.

Misha had received three-in-one vaccines: DTP and MMR. The holistic experts now told me that these vaccines contain dangerous metals, including mercury and aluminum.

Misha had received three-in-one vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) and measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) according to the recommended schedule. The holistic experts now told me that these vaccines contain dangerous metals, including mercury and aluminum. The vaccines, I read, could have spread from Misha’s arm to his gut and persisted long enough to perforate an intestinal wall. Mercury, a neurotoxin, could have leaked into his bloodstream and surreptitiously addled his brain. Or his pediatrician could have set off a chain reaction that had the same effect. The antibiotics she gave him for petty infections could have reduced the diversity of natural flora that controlled yeast in his gastrointestinal tract. An overabundance of yeast could have generated enzymes that perforated his intestines even if live-virus vaccines had not done so directly.

Either way, undigested food molecules such as gluten (in wheat) and casein (in dairy) could have joined forces with environmental toxins and heavy metals and attached to Misha’s opiate receptors, disrupting his neurotransmitters and triggering allergic reactions. The ballooning inflammation would have thwarted his immune responses. If so, then his “toxic load” could be starving his cells of nutrients. Escalating levels of “oxidative stress” could be congesting his metabolism. No wonder he lacked muscle tone, coordination, and balance!

How could I dismiss their diagnosis of “autism enterocolitis,” AKA “leaky gut?” My liberal education prided open-mindedness, after all. In 1998, a midlevel British lab researcher named Andrew Wakefield published a study warranting the diagnosis in The Lancet, one of the world’s most prestigious medical journals. Wakefield’s paper, it turned out, “entered his profession’s annals of shame as among the most unethical, dishonest, and damaging medical research to be unmasked in living memory,” according to Brian Deer’s The Doctor Who Fooled the World.

“The science right now is inconclusive,” Barack Obama said in 2008. Thousands of media outlets around the world reported a controversy between two legitimate sides.

In the meantime, both liberal and conservative politicians echoed the implications of Wakefield’s hoax. “The science right now is inconclusive,” Barack Obama said in 2008. Thousands of media outlets around the world reported a controversy between two legitimate sides. “Fears raised over preservatives in vaccines,” a front-page headline in the Boston Globe announced. Wakefield appeared on television with articulate parents by his side. “You have to listen to the story the parents tell,” he said on CBS’s 60 Minutes. Reputable television programs did just that. ABC’s Nightline, Good Morning America, and 20/20, NBC’s Dateline, and The Oprah Winfrey Show broadcast the gravamen of the indictment out of the mouths of well-educated parents.

The accusation against antibiotics resonated with definite misgivings that I held over the dispensations of American medicine. Doctors in the United States order more excessive diagnostic tests, perform more needless caesarean sections, and prescribe more superfluous antibiotics than their counterparts around the world. A prepossessing dependence on technology encourages American medicine to treat symptoms rather than people. From this indubitable truth, Coyle, Caprio, and Shaw drew an uncommon inference that aggressive medical care had sabotaged Misha’s birthright immunity.

Misha, so endowed, could have repaired the damage done, no matter whether vaccines or antibiotics had upset his “primary pathways.” His body would have availed “secondary pathways” such as his skin and mucous membrane. Coyle said his innate capacity for adaptation had been telegraphing itself in his fevers, his eczema, his ear infections, even his runny noses. Yet his pediatrician had stood blind before the hidden meaning of these irruptions. Reaching into her chamber of magic bullets, she prescribed steroid creams for his eczema, acetaminophen for his headaches, amoxicillin for his ear and sinus infections, antihistamines for his coughs and runny noses, and ibuprofen for his fevers. This “Whac-a-Mole mentality,” Coyle despaired, had plugged his “secondary pathways” as well.

The trio of virtuoso healers would help me sidestep the adulterated dialectic of science and charm Misha’s autism out of its chronic condition.

A vicious cycle set in. Vaccines and/or antibiotics had predisposed Misha’s microbiome to harbor viruses, bacteria, and fungi. Turning toxic, they invaded his cells, tissues, and fluids. The foreign occupation precipitated allergies. The allergies provoked inflammation, which arrested metabolic energy, which led to anemia, which invited recurring infections. His pediatrician perpetuated those with cascading doses of foreign chemicals. “Rather than freak out and take medication and look to suppress,” Coyle counseled, “we should celebrate that the body is working and go and look at the primary pathways and clear out the blockages.” Up to 103 degrees Fahrenheit, “the fever might be a good thing.”

If I could accept that “allopathic” medicine did not stand apart and speak objectively, but instead reflected the sickness of American society, then the trio of virtuoso healers would help me sidestep the adulterated dialectic of science and health. A holistic treatment protocol would charm Misha’s autism out of its chronic condition and turn it into a treatable medical illness. “The body’s infinite wisdom,” Coyle said, “would take care of the rest.” As the protocol purged and flushed his toxins, the fawn of nature would close the holes in his intestines. His allergies would ebb, reducing inflammation, reviving cellular respiration, and reconnecting his neurotransmitters. The realignment of his meridians would reflow his energy. “Once you clear,” Caprio said, “the whole thing just changes dramatically.”

♦ ♦ ♦

Autism parents first embraced holistic treatments in the 1960s and 1970s, when emphatic personal testimonials, printed and distributed in underground newsletters, led to the formation of grassroots groups such as Defeat Autism Now! (DAN!) and ushered in the “leaky gut” theory. DAN! grew out of the psychologist Bernard Rimland’s Autism Research Institute. Rimland’s 1964 book Infantile Autism blew up the prevailing, psychogenetic thesis of autism’s origins, which blamed mothers for failing to love their children enough.

The Today Show and The Dick Cavett Show had given psychologist Bruno Bettelheim, the chief exponent of the “refrigerator mothers” thesis, free reign to liken them to concentration camp guards. Rimland’s Infantile Autism refuted that thesis. Letters poured into his Autism Research Institute from grateful parents attesting to the efficacy of the holistic approach: vitamin therapy, detoxification, and elimination dieting. Pharmaceutical companies rolled out new childhood vaccines for measles (1963), mumps (1967), and rubella (1969) and combined the immunizations against pertussis, diphtheria, and tetanus into one injection. Rimland began distributing an annual survey that queried parents about the effects.

Belief in an etiology variously called “leaky gut,” “autism enterocolitis,” or “toxic psychosis” awkwardly amalgamated elements from both ancient and modern medical philosophy. The old idea of disease as a sign of disharmony with nature queued behind the modern concept of infection through the invasion of microorganisms. But no theory of etiology needs to be complete for a treatment to work. “Help the child first,” Rimland urged, “worry later about exactly what it is that’s helping the child.”

Like anti-psychiatry activists, breast cancer patients, and AIDS activists, autism parents confronted physicians with the backlash doctrine of “consumer choice” in specialist medical care. “The parent who reads this book should assume that their family doctor, or even their neurologist or other specialist, may not know nearly as much as they do about autism,” William Shaw wrote in Biological Treatments for Autism.

The first television program to elevate parental intuitions, Vaccine Roulette, aired in 1982 on an NBC affiliate in Washington, DC. The show promoted the vaccine injury theory—and won an Emmy Award. Accelerating rates of the diagnosis over the next decades brought the injury theory from a simmer to a boil. In the 1960s, an average of one out of every 2,500 children received the diagnosis. By the first decade of the 21st century, the prevalence rose to one out of every 88, an increase of over 2,500 percent. Up to three-quarters of autism parents used some form of holistic treatment on their children.

A Congressional hearing in 2012 featured their cause, heaping suspicion on vaccines, speculating on gut flora, and praising the efficacy of vitamins, homeopathy, and elimination dieting. Dennis Kucinich, a Democrat from Ohio and one-time Presidential candidate, expressed outrage over the spectacle of “children all over the country turning up with autism.” Kucinich blamed “neurotoxic chemicals in the environment,” particularly emissions from coal-burning power plants. Like the autism parents in attendance at the hearing, Kucinich did his own research and drew his own conclusions.

“There’s only medicine that works and medicine that doesn’t.” Clever and concise, Offit’s polemic nonetheless begged the relevant questions. Who decides what works? Fundamental science is one thing; therapeutic interventions are quite another.

“There’s no such thing as ‘conventional’ or ‘alternative’ or ‘complementary’ or ‘integrative’ or ‘holistic’ medicine,” alternative medicine skeptic Paul Offit complained the next year. “There’s only medicine that works and medicine that doesn’t.” Clever and concise, Offit’s polemic nonetheless begged the relevant questions. Who decides what works? Fundamental science is one thing; therapeutic interventions are quite another. “Evidence-based medicine,” introduced in 1991, supplies a template of criteria to translate medical science into clinical medicine. Atop its hierarchy sits the “randomized control trial,” a methodology loaded with social and financial biases. Even when a therapy works incontrovertibly, that fact doesn’t free its applications of ambiguity. Antibiotics work. We’ve known that since the 1930s. But which of their benefits are worth which of their costs?

When does an accumulation of confirmed research equal a consensus of reasonable certainty? In 1992, ABC’s 20/20 exposed a cluster of autism cases in Leominster, Massachusetts. A sunglasses’ manufacturer had long treated the city as a dumping ground for its chemical waste. After the company shuttered, a group of mothers counted 43 autistic children born to parents who had worked at the plant or resided near it. Commenting on the Leominster case, the eminently sane neurologist Oliver Sacks voiced a curious sentiment. “The question of whether autism can be caused by exposure to toxic agents has yet to be fully studied,” Sacks wrote, three years after epidemiologists from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health determined that no unusual cluster of cases had existed in that city in the first place. Who gets to decide the meaning of “fully studied”?

Bernard Rimland and the autism parents in his movement answered the question for themselves. “There are thousands of children who have recovered from autism as a result of the biomedical interventions pioneered by the innovative scientists and physicians in the DAN! movement,” Rimland insisted in the group’s 2005 treatment manual, Autism: Effective Biomedical Treatments.

William Shaw and Mary Coyle, both DAN! clinicians, adapted Rimland’s manual for Misha. Coyle vouched personally for the safety and efficacy of the holistic treatment therein. She swore she used it to “recover” her own son.

Interdicting toxins marked the first step on the “healing journey.” Taking it obliged me to decline Misha’s pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (for pneumonia) and his varicella vaccine (for chickenpox). Meanwhile, I eliminated from our cupboard and refrigerator the foods for which Caprio had proved Misha sensitive and intolerant, and I prepared a course of “optimal dose sub-lingual immunotherapy” to “de-sensitize” him. Coyle drew up a monthly schedule to detoxify him with homeopathic remedies from a manufacturer in Belgium. Shaw itemized vitamins and minerals to supplement Misha’s intake of nutrients, plus probiotics and antifungals to control his yeast and rehabilitate his intestinal tract. My kitchen turned into an ersatz pharmacy of unguents, powders, drops, and tablets.

Every morning, I inserted two tablets of a Chinese herbal supplement, Huang Lian Su, into an apple. This would crank-start his digestion. I added half a capsule of methylfolate into his breakfast. This would juice his metabolism. Ten minutes after he finished breakfast, I stirred Nystatin powder into warm coconut water, drew two ounces into a dropper, irrigated his mouth, and ensured that he abstained from eating or drinking for ten more minutes. Fifteen minutes before his midday snack, I squeezed six drops of a B12 vitamin under his tongue. Every evening, I slipped him two more Huang Lian Su tablets.

An exception in federal law places vitamins, supplements, and homeopathic remedies outside the FDA’s approval process. Only their manufacturers know what these dummy drugs contain.

To fortify his glucose levels, I could elect to give him two vials of raisin water every other hour. To normalize his alkaline levels, I added a quarter-cup of baking soda to his baths. The “de-sensitizing drops,” however, had to be dribbled onto his wrists twice every day. Misha also needed regular, carefully calibrated doses of boron, chromium, folic acid, glutathione, iodine, magnesium, manganese, milk thistle, selenium, vitamins A, C, D, E, and zinc.

Homotoxicology, the core modality, entailed his daily ingestion of homeopathic “drainage remedies” to purge toxins and open pathways. The bottles arrived in the mail. Coyle provided a table of equivalencies, linking particular remedies to organs. This compound for his small intestines; That one for his large intestine; This one for his kidney; and That one for his mucous membrane.

At the same time, homeopathy’s whole-body scope of intervention claimed to relieve a wide range of illnesses. Shaw and his colleagues said the modality could treat autism, plus sensory integration disorder, central auditory processing disorder, speech and language problems, fine motor and gross motor problems, oppositional defiance disorder, obsessive compulsive disorder, eating disorders, headaches, eczema, and irritable bowel syndrome. The marketing materials that accompanied Misha’s compounds claimed that they could treat bloating, constipation, cramps, flatulence, nausea, night sweats, and sneezing.

I learned the shorthand rationale as part of my self-education. Homeopaths stake their claim on a manufacturing process that distinguishes their remedies from pharmaceutical medicaments. It’s called “succussion.” A label that reads “4X,” for example, indicates that the original ingredient has been diluted four times by a factor of 10—the manufacturer has succussed it 10,000 times. “12X” indicated that the original ingredient has been succussed one trillion times.

The compounds prescribed for Misha said they contained asparagus, bark, boldo leaf, goldenrod, goldenseal, horsetail, juniper, marigold, milk thistle, parsley, passionflower, Scottish pine root, and other herbs and plants of which I’d never heard.

The compounds prescribed for Misha said they contained asparagus, bark, boldo leaf, goldenrod, goldenseal, horsetail, juniper, marigold, milk thistle, parsley, passionflower, Scottish pine root, and other herbs and plants of which I’d never heard. Having been succussed, though, the remedies actually contained no active ingredients. In the bottles remained “the mother tincture,” a special kind of water said to “remember” the original ingredient. The only other ingredient listed on the label was an organic compound that served as a solvent and preservative. Thirty-one percent of some of Misha’s remedies contained ethanol alcohol, a proof as strong as vodka or gin. Coyle instructed me to “gas off the alcohol” on the stove before serving him.

Succussion confused me. Misha’s reaction worried me. He looked a fright. Black circles ringed his eyelids. Yeast blanketed his nostrils and lips. Rashes and red spots appeared all over his body. Pale and lethargic, he oscillated between diarrhea and constipation. He broke out with recurring fevers. He stopped gaining weight. Because he didn’t speak, or reliably communicate in any other manner, I couldn’t understand why his emotions seemed to be running at an unusually high pitch.

Coyle explained that different glands and organs in the body stored specific feelings. The kidneys stored fear. The pancreas stored frustration. The thyroid stored misunderstanding, the liver anger, the lungs grief, the bladder a sense of loss, and so forth. Those emotions poured out as his body excreted toxins. I shouldn’t regard the worsening of his symptoms as a side effect, but rather as a necessary condition of his recovery—“aggravations,” in homeopathy’s parlance. A Table of Homotoxicosis charted the correspondences with the precision and predictability of biochemistry. Nor should I abandon the treatment. To do so would be to “re-toxify” him. I must allow the treatment to fully fledge. I must keep my nerve.

♦ ♦ ♦

I lost my nerve. It took 18 months of gnawing doubt and thousands of dollars out the door. Then one day I swept all the vitamins, antigens, probiotics, antifungals, and homeopathic remedies into the trash bin. I restored Misha to a regular diet, caught him up on his vaccines, and demanded (and received) a full refund from Coyle.

I had blundered into a non sequitur. The environment is toxic. Conventional medicine does reflect the sickness of our culture. Yet that doesn’t render holism any better. The supplement industry, I came to understand, has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into thousands of clinical studies without demonstrating that vitamins, herbal products, or mineral compounds are either safe or effective, much less necessary. The Food & Drug Administration (FDA) neither tests the industry’s marketing claims nor regulates its product standards.

Caprio and Coyle regard Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) as a reproach to modern, Western medicine. TCM, they pointed out, is 5,000 years old. Actually, I learned, Chairman Mao Zedong contrived TCM after 1950 as a means of controlling China’s rural population and burnishing the regime’s reputation abroad. In 1972, during Richard Nixon’s tour of Chinese hospitals, his guides stage-managed a demonstration of TCM’s miracles. American media reported the healing event at face value and launched the holistic health movement stateside. Several years later, the FDA sought to regulate the vitamin and supplement industry. Manufacturers fought back with a marketing campaign centered on “freedom of choice” and convinced Americans to stand up for their right not to know which ingredients may (or may not) be contained in their daily vitamins.

I needed to file a public records request with the Connecticut Department of Public Health to discover that Lawrence Caprio had been censured and fined for improperly labeling medication, for practicing without a license, and for passing himself off as a medical doctor. I also learned that Caprio’s naturopathy license had been suspended for two years after the FDA determined his bogus “sensitivity tests” violated its regulations. Misha, an actual immunologist confirmed, had no food allergies in the first place.

Misha, an actual immunologist confirmed, had no food allergies in the first place. Was my son ever really burdened by toxins?

Was my son ever really burdened by toxins? Coyle said the results of the “energetic assessments” revealed that Misha carried quantities of heavy metals. Degrees of dangerousness were measured against a standard range credited to “Dr. Richard L. Cowden.” I sent Misha’s results to Cowden. I stated my belated impression that meaningful ranges for heavy metals don’t exist—we all have traces—and my belief that autism cannot be reversed. “I have reversed advanced autism in many children,” Dr. Cowden snapped. “I saw reversal of more than a dozen cases of full-blown autism, including my own grandson. So I am pretty sure the parents of those dozen+ children would debate you on your IMPRESSION/BELIEF.”

Cowden advised me to repeat Misha’s energetic assessment through the Internet and to place him into an “infrared sauna” to detoxify him. I declined.

Even before Misha’s first energetic assessment, the FDA had accused the device’s manufacturer of making unapproved claims. The FDA had approved it only for measuring “galvanic skin response.” But the company’s marketing materials had crossed over into unapproved diagnostic and predictive territory when they claimed that the “software indicates what is referred to as Biological Preference and Biological Aversion.” The software was recalled. “Dr. Cowden,” I also learned too late, was not the “Board Certified cardiologist and internist” that he advertises. He surrendered his medical license in 2008 after the Texas Board of Medical Examiners twice reprimanded him for endangering his patients. According to the American Board of Internal Medicine, Cowden’s certifications are “inactive.”

The “homotoxicology” that Coyle practiced had sounded to me like a branch of toxicology. But the two fields turn out to have nothing in common.

The “homotoxicology” that Coyle practiced had sounded to me like a branch of toxicology. But the two fields turn out to have nothing in common. An analysis of clinical trials of homotoxicology established that it is “not a method based on accepted scientific principles or biological plausibility.” Actual toxicologists pass a rigorous examination for their board certifications and adhere to a code of ethics. Homotoxicologists become so simply by declaring themselves homotoxicologists.

As for vitamins, supplements, and homeopathic remedies: an exception in federal law places them outside the FDA’s approval process. Only their manufacturers know what these dummy drugs contain. Last year, after fielding numerous reports of “toxic” reactions, finding “many serious violations” of manufacturing controls, and recording “significant harm” to children, the FDA warned the consuming public.

Homeopathy offers no detectable mechanism of action, nor any reason to believe that “aggravating” the primary symptoms of an illness is necessary to cure it. Water does not “remember,” at least not if the laws of molecular physics hold true. The tinier the dosage, homeopaths insist, the more potent the therapeutic effect the mother tincture will deliver. By this logic, a patient who misses a day might die of an overdose.

As I steered Misha back toward medical science, though, I remembered the gap that holism fills for parents like me. I took him to a “neuro-biologist,” a “neuro-psychologist,” and a “neuro-immunologist.” His “neuro-ophthalmologist” ordered an MRI. His “neuro-radiologist” read the images with algorithms—and pronounced his brain “normal” due to the absence of indications of damage.

That determination proved only the vacuity of scientific materialism. The “biological revolution” that seized psychiatry in the 1980s aspired to network the anatomical, electrical, and chemical functions of the brain. A procession of neuroimaging technologies held out the promise of progress: electroencephalography (EEG); computerized axial tomography (CAT); positron emission tomography (PET); magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS); magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The resulting studies have always fallen pitifully short of a credible evidentiary threshold and have never done anything to expand treatment options. Mainly, neuroimaging has furnished opportunities to market the research industry, a breakthrough culture that has never broken through.

Holism, by contrast, answers prayers in the immaterial world, bidding to restore harmony through an aesthetically elegant fusion of mind, body, and spirit. As Coyle explained on her website: “Homotoxicology utilizes complex homeopathic remedies designed to restore the child’s vital force and balance the biological flow system.”

One part of me still craves holism’s beautiful notions. Another part recognizes in their desiccated spiritualism the return of a repressed pagan unconscious.

One part of me still craves holism’s beautiful notions. Another part recognizes in their desiccated spiritualism the return of a repressed pagan unconscious. I can no more believe in goblets of magic water and occult energy than I can conceal my disappointment with “neuro-radiology.”

Scientists long ago dispatched the “leaky gut” theory with a series of disproof. Holistic parents, researchers, and clinicians, however, continue to reject what they contend are the false revelations of cold, mechanical instrumentalism. Tylenol, electromagnetic fields, “toxic baby food,” COVID-19 vaccines, HPV inoculation, “geo-engineering,” and genetically modified foods top the current indictment. William Shaw published a paper in 2020 purporting to demonstrate “rapid complete recovery from autism” through antifungal therapy. Mary Coyle attested last year to having healed her son’s chickenpox through “natural” remedies.

Many of the holistic advocacy organizations intermittently lost access to social media platforms during COVID. Yet censorship has deepened the martyrdom ingrained in this theodicy of misfortune. A spiritual war against invisible enemies animates their imaginations and elevates their personal disappointment to the status of a historical event. Rebaptized in nature’s holy immunity by ascetic protocols of abstinence and purification, they turn over a new leaf, as it were, and crave vindication above all else. “This book offers you two messages,” Bernard Rimland promised of the testimonials that he collected in Recovering Autistic Children: “You are not alone in your fight, and you can win.”

Here’s another message: Children need love and respect above all. As René Dubos wrote in Mirage of Health, “As far as life is concerned, there is no such thing as ‘Nature.’ There are only homes.”