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NASA Imagines a Catastrophic Asteroid Impact to Study How to Prevent it

Universe Today Feed - Tue, 07/09/2024 - 4:08am

The Netflix movie Don’t Look Up received plenty of accolades for its scarily realistic portrayal of a professor from Michigan State University attempting to warn the world about a civilization-ending asteroid impact. In reality, there are plenty of organizations in the US government and beyond whose job it is to find and avoid those impacts. And the best way to train them to do those jobs is to run scenarios and try to determine what actions would need to be taken. That was the idea behind the fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, held at John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in April. NASA recently released a preliminary report on the results of the exercise, with a fully detailed one to come in August.

This is the fifth in a series of exercises that have been ongoing for the last eleven years. Each exercise focuses on a different scenario of a possible strike to determine what actions would need to be taken immediately or over a more extended period.

International collaborators contributed to the discussion for the first time in one of these exercises. Over 100 people participated, including representatives of the UN, UK, ESA, and JAXA. Notably absent were two other space powers—Russia and China—who would obviously impact any decision-making in a realistic scenario of an asteroid impact.

Finding asteroids before they impact us is one of the main tasks of the planetary defense community, as Fraser explains.

In this case, the scenario some participants developed didn’t directly impact China or Russia. However, both could have been affected by a tidal wave if the target asteroid had landed in the Pacific Ocean. The scenario called for an asteroid a few hundred meters across that had a 72% chance of impacting the Earth in about 14 years. 

The projected path that the asteroid carved across the Earth went from the Pacific across northern Mexico and the southern US, passing directly over Dallas and Washington DC before crossing over the Atlantic Ocean, passing over Portugal, Spain (including Madrid), and northern Africa. It was probably not lost on participants that this scenario could directly affect the town they were sitting in.

Calculations showed that there was a 45% chance the impact wouldn’t affect anybody, a relatively high chance it would impact between 1,000 and 100,000 people, and a .04% chance it would impact more than 10 million people—for example, if it scored a direct hit on the Dallas metropolitan area. That uncertainty and the extended timeline gave the planetary defense officials the most significant trouble for this exercise.

Stopping a potentially hazardous asteroid comes with its own challenges, as Fraser discusses in this video.

As in Don’t Look Up, political considerations played the forefront in the participant’s minds. Many repeated the sentiment of one anonymous participant reported in the preliminary report: “I know what I would prefer [to do], but Congress will tell us to wait.” The uncertainty about impact, and especially about whether it would affect anyone at all, was a significant consideration. In the scenario, the asteroid passed behind the Sun, so additional observations to clarify those estimates weren’t possible for another seven months. 

The availability of resources was again a primary consideration, both to track the potential impactor closely enough and to design and execute a mission to potentially deflect it. Participants didn’t believe there would be enough resources for either task and stated that it was one of their main concerns in the future. 

They also agreed that the tabletop exercise was a massive success, with it allowing decision-makers who would be involved in an actual process of determining what to do with a potential real asteroid strike to think through the steps they would have to take and what the likely political and public responses would be. Plans for additional exercises are already in the works, and the final report of the session is due to be released on August 5th, with specific assignable action items to come as part of it. While any expected asteroid impact isn’t foreseen in the coming decades, these sorts of exercises will continue to hone what is arguably one of the most valuable skills of any space agency – how to protect ourselves from one of our biggest threats.

Learn More:
NASA – Quick-Look Report – Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise 5
NASA – NASA Asteroid Experts Create Hypothetical Impact Scenario for Exercise
UT – Another Asteroid Discovered Hours Before it Impacts the Earth
UT – If You’re Trying to Prevent an Asteroid Impact, the Technical and Political Challenges are Staggering

Lead Image:
This artist’s concept depicts an asteroid drifting through space. Many such objects frequency pass Earth. To help prepare for the discovery of one with a chance of impacting our planet, NASA leads regular exercises to figure out how the international community could respond to such a threat.
Credit – NASA / JPL-Caltech

The post NASA Imagines a Catastrophic Asteroid Impact to Study How to Prevent it appeared first on Universe Today.

Categories: Science

Stunning blue-skinned frog is a rare genetic mutant

New Scientist Feed - Tue, 07/09/2024 - 3:47am
The magnificent tree frog (Litoria splendida) is normally a vibrant green, but conservationists in Australia have spotted a blue-skinned individual
Categories: Science

Skeptoid #944: Bullibility and the Cult of Wellness

Skeptoid Feed - Tue, 07/09/2024 - 2:00am

Not only is the entire wellness industry BS, it exists because of people who are especially gullible.

Categories: Critical Thinking, Skeptic

Self-cooling artificial grass could help cities handle extreme weather

New Scientist Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 10:00pm
An artificial sports pitch that stores water below the surface cools itself down on hot days by letting water evaporate, just like natural grass
Categories: Science

A Moon Base Will Need a Transport System

Universe Today Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:57pm

Through the Artemis Program, NASA will return astronauts to the lunar surface for the first time since Apollo 17 landed in 1972. Beyond this historic mission, scheduled for September 2026, NASA plans to establish the infrastructure that will enable annual missions to the Moon, eventually leading to a permanent human presence there. As we addressed in a previous article, this will lead to a huge demand for cargo delivery systems that meet the logistical, scientific, and technical requirements of crews engaged in exploration.

Beyond this capacity for delivering crews and cargo, there is also the need for transportation systems that will address logistical needs and assist in exploration efforts. These requirements were outlined in a 2024 Moon to Mars Architecture white paper titled “Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs.” Picking up from the concurrently-released “Lunar Surface Cargo,” this whitepaper addresses the need for lunar infrastructure that will enable the movement of astronauts and payloads from landing sites to where they are needed the most. As usual, they identified a critical gap between the current capabilities and what is to be expected.

Once again, the authors cite the need for mobility systems in keeping with NASA’s objectives, as detailed in the Moon to Mars Architecture Definition Document (ADD). As they indicate, recent analyses of integrated surface operations have highlighted the importance of transportation systems that can move cargo from points of delivery to points of use across the lunar surface. This could range from “crew logistics and consumables to science and technology demonstrations, to large-scale infrastructure that requires precision relocation.”

Artist’s illustration of the new spacesuit NASA is designing for Artemis astronauts. It’s called the xEMU,, or Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit. Credit: NASA

In short, in addition to landers capable of delivering crews, supplies, experiments, and habitats, NASA’s Moon to Mars program also requires vehicles and support networks that can deliver them from point A to point B. As they state, the currently defined mobility elements are either primarily for crew use or are limited in mobility. This includes elements like the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) and the Pressurized Rover (PR) – which are elements of the Artemis Base Camp – and robotic missions contracted through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program.

In addition, the needs and challenges that will emerge as the Artemis Program unfolds are broken down into three segments: Human Lunar Return (HLR), Foundational Exploration (FE), and Sustained Lunar Evolution (SLR). The HLR segment includes the Artemis III mission, currently scheduled for September 2026, where a crew of two will land on the lunar surface using a Starship HLS. The FE segment will coincide with Artemis IV and Artemis V (2028 and 2030), where crew sizes will expand from two to four, and the necessary infrastructure will expand.

After that, during the SLR segment, NASA plans to mount a mission a year and establish a permanent lunar habitat. Throughout this period, the demands for payloads and transportation systems will exceed current capabilities, limited to 15,000 kg (33,070 lbs) of cargo. Similar to what NASA related in their Lunar Surface Cargo whitepaper, accomplishing key mission objectives will require cargo of sizes and masses beyond these capabilities, creating the need for additional solutions.

Separation and Transportation

As the authors state, a major issue on the lunar surface affecting mobility is the need for separation between landing sites and points of use. This separation is motivated by several factors, including science objectives, lighting conditions, and safety considerations. In short, crew vehicles, habitats, and key infrastructure will be positioned at a distance from landing sites so as not to be affected by darkness caused by the landers’ shadow, contamination by the landers, and regolith or blast ejecta created by engine plumes. Based on the level of concern, separation distances are broken down into three tiers:

  • Separation from lander shadowing (tens of meters; tens of yards)
  • Lander blast ejecta constraints due either to separation between the lander and existing infrastructure or lander ascent (>1,000 m; ~1090 yards)
  • Support for aggregation of elements in ideal habitation zones from available regional landing areas
    (up to 5,000 m; ~5470 yards)

In addition, NASA’s Moon to Mars mission architecture emphasizes the need for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), such as water ice, regolith, and minerals. NASA also recognizes the need to select habitation and hibernation sites that minimize the exposure to darkness from shadows caused by the local topography and the inclination of the Sun during lunar nights (which last two weeks at a time). This is easiest at higher elevations and on top of crater ridges. This necessitates two things:

  • Exploration, habitation, and power sites will need to be located far from landing and ISRU sites
  • Traverses from landing to habitation zones could encounter slopes of up to 20 degrees

As the authors state, these overlapping challenges can be met by ensuring systems are in place so mission elements can move away from landers once they are deployed on the surface:

“This could be done using independent or integrated mobility systems. The frequency of traverses between downslope and upslope locations would be driven by the cadence with which landers deliver cargo to the lunar surface and the mass that a given mobility system can carry on each traversal. Integrated architecture operations will necessitate non-trivial relocation and aggregation ranges for cargo and assets.”

Transport Capabilities

During the FE segment of the Artemis Program, NASA plans to expand surface crews from two to four, which will need to operate on the surface for about 30 days. This will require a wide range of mobility needs that can accommodate payloads of varying size and mass and over a range of distances. These include:

  • Smaller technology demonstrations: 500 to 2000 kg (~1100 to 4410 lbs)
  • Logistic Elements per crewed surface mission: 2,000 to 6,000 kg (~4410 to 13,230 lbs)
  • Habitation Systems: 12,000 to 15,000 kg (~26455 to 33,070 lbs)

The authors acknowledge that current mobility elements could provide some cargo relocation capabilities – the LTV, for example, can accommodate 800 kg (~1764 lbs) of cargo when uncrewed. However, according to the NASA team’s analysis, the mobility capacity falls short of demand by 1,000 to 15,000 kg (2,200 to 33,070 lbs) per asset for ranges of 50 to 5,000 m (~55 to 5470 yards). Moreover, the “frequency of relocation needs” (i.e., how often payloads need to be moved) will vary considerably, ranging from single operations for large elements to multiple trips a year for containers and smaller cargo.

Mobility demand forecast ranges compared to LTV and LRV transport capabilities. Credit: NASA Conditions

The authors also address how lunar conditions are important when developing mobility systems. One of the greatest hazards on the Moon is regolith (aka. “moondust”), the fine silicate powder that covers much of the surface and sticks to everything it comes into contact with. There are lighting conditions where parts of the South Pole region will be shadowed due to the inclination of the Sun and permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) that experience perpetual darkness. Last is the matter of the terrain, which can be rocky or covered by 1 to 10 m (3.3 to 33 ft) of regolith and where slopes of more than 10 degrees are common.

This combination of factors, they argue, “creates a significant technological gap between existing systems and mobility demands for future exploration.” For starters, energy systems must provide enough power so vehicles can maintain sufficient speeds and carrying capacity and can operate during lunar nights. The authors also recommend conducting more studies on regolith mitigation strategies to prevent wear and tear and the effects regolith could have on electro-mechanical systems. They also stress the need for sufficient autonomy and/or teleoperation, allowing greater flexibility and range.

These autonomous systems must contend with the challenging lunar terrain, map the local topography, recognize obstacles and unpassable regions, and identify optimal pathways to reach their destinations. As the authors note, these systems could offer increased flexibility for mission planning and increase the speed of mobile assets, especially in areas where the terrain interferes with communications and makes remote operations impossible.

In summary, the “Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs” whitepaper identifies some robust requirements for creating a permanent human presence on the Moon. This will entail moving cargo and assets across the lunar surface from landing sites to destinations 5 to 5,000 meters (~5.5 to 5470 yards) away. It must also be able to accommodate payloads of up to 12,000 kg or more, which is significantly higher than the current capabilities of the proposed LTV – 800 kg (~1765 lbs).

Artist rendering of an Artemis astronaut exploring the Moon’s surface during a future mission. Credit: NASA

In addition, the paper indicates that energy and environmental considerations are crucial to the design process. It is not simply a matter of scaling up small-scale mobility systems to create large-scale ones. Lastly, the computer systems and software running future mobility systems will need to be interoperable, exchanging information between vehicles and base sites, and have the ability to function autonomously or semi-autonomously.

Like the “Lunar Surface Cargo,” these findings will be explored in more detail with the 2024 Architecture Concept Review (2024 ACR), which will be released later this year, along with white papers describing NASA’s cargo return needs and lunar surface strategy.

Further Reading: NASA

The post A Moon Base Will Need a Transport System appeared first on Universe Today.

Categories: Science

Engine wear risk as planes swallow more dust waiting to land

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
Planes flying into one of the world's busiest airports are ingesting around 10kg of dust per 1,000 flights.
Categories: Science

Diagnosing different forms of dementia now possible using artificial intelligence

Computers and Math from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
Ten million new cases of dementia are diagnosed each year but the presence of different dementia forms and overlapping symptoms can complicate diagnosis and delivery of effective treatments. Now researchers have developed an AI tool that can diagnose ten different types of dementia such as vascular dementia, Lewy body dementia, and frontotemporal dementia, even if they co-occur.
Categories: Science

Study projects major changes in North Atlantic and Arctic marine ecosystems due to climate change

Computers and Math from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
New research predicts significant shifts in marine fish communities in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans as a result of climate warming.
Categories: Science

Chemistry inspired by one-pot cooking

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
Is it possible to create a new class of materials from very different substances using the 'one-pot synthesis' approach? Chemists explain how they enable the synthesis of such novel materials.
Categories: Science

Researcher finds lithium ion batteries a growing source of pollution

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
The use of certain substances in batteries is polluting air and water.
Categories: Science

Stench of a gas giant? Nearby exoplanet reeks of rotten eggs, and that's a good thing

Space and time from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:24pm
An exoplanet infamous for its deadly weather has been hiding another bizarre feature -- it reeks of rotten eggs, according to a new study of data from the James Webb Space Telescope.
Categories: Science

Employees prefer human performance monitors over AI, study finds

Computers and Math from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:23pm
Organizations using AI to monitor employees' behavior and productivity can expect them to complain more, be less productive and want to quit more -- unless the technology can be framed as supporting their development, research finds.
Categories: Science

New extremely fast carbon storage technology

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:22pm
A new way to store carbon captured from the atmosphere works much faster than current methods without the harmful chemical accelerants they require.
Categories: Science

Innovative, highly accurate AI model can estimate lung function just by using chest x-rays

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:22pm
An artificial intelligence (AI) model that can estimate with high accuracy a person's lung function just by using a chest radiograph has been successfully developed.
Categories: Science

Innovative, highly accurate AI model can estimate lung function just by using chest x-rays

Computers and Math from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:22pm
An artificial intelligence (AI) model that can estimate with high accuracy a person's lung function just by using a chest radiograph has been successfully developed.
Categories: Science

New bio-based tool quickly detects concerning coronavirus variants

Matter and energy from Science Daily Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 7:14pm
Researchers have developed a bioelectric device that can detect and classify new variants of coronavirus to identify those that are most harmful. It has the potential to do the same with other viruses, as well.
Categories: Science

Cosmic rays can help synchronise the global financial system

New Scientist Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 1:25pm
Particles generated by cosmic rays can penetrate indoor and underground environments with ease, and could provide a more secure alternative to GPS for synchronising financial transactions worldwide
Categories: Science

Evolutionary story of Australia's dingoes revealed by ancient DNA

New Scientist Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 1:00pm
Dingoes, the native wild dogs of Australia, arrived on the continent more than 3000 years ago and their gene pool has had little input from domestic dogs
Categories: Science

More on the decline of New Zealand science: a required course for all students in the Faculty of Science

Why Evolution is True Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 9:20am

New Zealand’s attempt to integrate indigenous ways of knowing with modern science takes place not only on the secondary-school level, but also at universities, including the most prestigious one in the country: The University of Auckland. The course below (“Aotearoa” is the Māori word for New Zealand, and is now inseparable from “New Zealand”) is required for all first-year science students at the University under the University’s “Curriculum Framework Transformation” (CFT) plan. There will be a version of this course for all other faculties as well, so it’s a general requirement.

Click below to read it (and download a pdf), and I’ll put the gist of the course below (bolding is mine):

 

Course Prescription What does it mean to do science here and now? This course considers how knowledge of place enhances your learning, the significance of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, and how knowledge systems frame understanding. Students will think critically about the relationships between science and our environment, along with the ethics of science in practice. Course Overview

Contemporary science is deeply entwined with place, knowledge systems and ethics. This course examines these concepts through the lens of sustainability to demonstrate how they shape research agendas, methodologies, and applications of contemporary science. To address the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability, science must recognise and navigate the complexities of these interrelated concepts.

Explore the role of place-based knowledge, the importance of embracing diverse knowledge systems for science and the ethical responsibilities inherent in contemporary science in Aotearoa New Zealand. This interdisciplinary course will challenge you to think critically, fostering an awareness of the intricate relationships between science and its broader context, including Te Tiriti o Waitangi. Capabilities Developed in this Course Capability 1: People and Place Capability 2: Sustainability Capability 3: Knowledge and Practice Capability 4: Critical Thinking Capability 6: Communication Capability 7: Collaboration Capability 8: Ethics and Professionalism Graduate Profile: Bachelor of Science Learning Outcomes By the end of this course, students will be able to:
  1. Demonstrate how place, and an understanding of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, are significant to your field of study (Capability 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8)
  2. Critically and constructively engage with knowledge systems, practices and positionality (Capability 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7)
  3. Employ a reciprocal, values-based approach to collaborating (Capability 4, 6, 7 and 8)
  4. Communicate ideas clearly, effectively and respectfully (Capability 6, 7 and 8)
  5. Reflexively engage with the question of ethics in academic practice (Capability 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8)
  6. Demonstrate a critical understanding of sustainability (Capability 2, 3 and 4)

Seriously, is this going to be useful to the students, or will it just confuse them and waste their time?

Note that Te Tiriti o Waitangi is the Treaty of Waitangi, signed by some (but not all) Māori tribes in 1840. It established the rights of Māori and the English colonists, giving the Crown full sovereignty over the country but also giving Māori the right to keep their lands while making them full British subjects.  It has been interpreted, with respect to education, as mandating that Māori “ways of knowing” (Mātauranga Māori)  must be given equal treatment in schools to modern “ways of knowing”.  I’ve discussed that requirement ad nauseam, and won’t go over it here, except to say that mandating this coequality is a foolish and counterproductive thing to do, at least if New Zealand wants to enter the era of modern science.

 

This educational coequality of modern science with a mixture of trial-and-error empirical knowledge indigenous practices, which include spirituality, religion, ideology, eommunality, tradition, and ethics—this coequality is a dubious and contested interpretation of the Treaty. But the Māori are regarded as sacred victims, and an ethos has arisen in New Zealand that this coequality cannot be questioned. People have been fired or demonized for questioning it. Nevertheless, if the country wants its students given a proper science education, infusing it with local lore is not the way to go.  As one local said when he saw this course, “Its primary purposes seem to be pushing an activist view of the Treaty of Waitangi and pushing the validity of Mātauranga Māori as an alternative knowledge system.”

 

Indeed, and that’s from someone familiar with science education in New Zealand. Now there’s no issue with teaching local “ways of knowing” in anthropology or sociology courses, but “indigenous science” often proves to be infused with nonscientific stuff like oral tradition, myth, and religion/spirituality.  To pretend that the Treaty is essential for first-year students, and that alternative “ways of knowing” are just as good as modern ones, is to begin propagandizing science students in their first year at University.

At least New Zealand can’t say it hasn’t been warned of the consequences of this form of wokeness. As the country continues to drop in science rankings compared to countries like the U.S. and Canada, it may reach a point where people think, “Wait a minute; what are we doing?”

They haven’t gotten close to that point yet.

Categories: Science

Is ultra-processed food unhealthy? Here's why no one can agree

New Scientist Feed - Mon, 07/08/2024 - 9:00am
While ultra-processed food is the latest buzzword in nutrition, the scientific evidence for how it affects our health continues to point in different directions. Why can't researchers just tell us the perfect diet?
Categories: Science

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