It’s probably not a surprise that a blog author dedicated to critical thinking and neuroscience feels that misinformation is one of the most significant threats to society, but I really to think this. Misinformation (false, misleading, or erroneous information) and disinformation (deliberately misleading information) have the ability to cause a disconnect between the public and reality. In a democracy this severs the feedback loop between voters and their representatives. In an authoritarian government it a tool of control and repression. In either case citizens cannot freely choose their representatives. This is also the problem with extreme jerrymandering – in which politicians choose their voters rather than the other way around.
Misinformation and disinformation have always existed in human society, and it is an interesting question whether or not they have increased recently and to what extent social media has amplified them. Regardless, it is useful to understand what factors contribute to susceptibility to misinformation in order to make people more resilient to it. We all benefit if the typical citizen has the ability to discern reality and identify fake news when they see it.
There has been a lot of research on this question over the years, and I have discussed it often, but it’s always useful to try to gather together years of research into a single systematic review and/or meta-analysis. It’s possible I and others may be selectively choosing or remembering parts of the research to reinforce a particular view – a problem that can be solved with a thorough analysis of all existing data. And of course I must point out that such reviews are subject to their own selection bias, but if properly done such bias should be minimal. The best case scenario is for there to be multiple systematic reviews, so I can get a sense of the consensus of those reviews, spreading out bias as much as possible in the hopes it will average out in the end.
With that in mind, there is a recent meta-analysis of studies looking at the demographics of susceptibility to misinformation. The results mostly confirm what I recall from looking at the individual studies over the years, but there are some interesting wrinkles. They looked at studies which used the news headline paradigm – having subjects answer if they think a headline is true or not, “totaling 256,337 unique choices made by 11,561 participants across 31 experiments.” That’s a good chunk of data. First, people were significantly better than chance at determining which headlines were true (68.51%) or false 67.24%). That’s better than it being a coin flip, but still, about a third of the time subjects in these studies could not tell real from fake headlines. Given the potential number of false headlines people encounter daily, this can result in massive misinformation.
What factors contributed to susceptibility to misinformation, or protected against it? One factor that many people may find surprising, but which I have seen many times over the years, is that education level alone conveyed essentially no benefit. This also aligns with the pseudoscience literature – education level (until you get to advanced science degrees) does not protect against believing pseudoscience. You might also (and I do) view this as a failure of the education system, which is supposed to be teaching critical thinking. This does not appear to be happening to any significant degree.
There were some strong predictors. People who have an analytical thinking style were more accurate on both counts – identifying true and false headlines, but with a bit of a false headline bias. This factor comes up often in the literature. An analytical thinking style also correlates with lower belief in conspiracy theories, for example. Can we teach an analytical thinking style? Yes, absolutely. People have a different inherent tendency to rely on analytical vs intuitive thinking, but almost by definition analytical thinking is a conscious deliberate act and is a skill that can be taught. Perhaps analytical thinking is the thing that schools are not teaching students but should be.
Older age also was associated with higher overall discrimination, and also with a false headline bias, meaning that their default was to be skeptical rather than believing. It’s interesting to think about the interplay between these two things – in a world with mostly false headlines, having a strong skeptical bias will lead to greater accuracy. Disbelieving becomes a good first approximation of reality. The research, as far as I can see, did not attempt to replicate reality in terms of the proportion of true to false headlines. This means that the false bias may be more or less useful in the real world than in the studies, depending on the misinformation ecosystem.
Also being a self-identified Democrat correlated with greater accuracy and also a false bias, while self-identifying as a Republican was associated with lower accuracy and a truth bias (tending to believe headlines were true). Deeply exploring why this is the case is beyond the scope of this article (this is a complex question), but let me just throw out there a couple of the main theories. One is that Republicans are already self-selected for some cognitive features, such as intuitive thinking. Another is that the current information landscape is not uniform from a partisan perspective, and is essentially selecting for people who tend to believe headlines.
Some other important factors emerged from this data. One is that a strong predictor of believing headlines was partisan alignment – people tended to believe headlines that aligned with their self-identified partisan label. This is due to “motivated reflection” (what I generally refer to as motivated reasoning). The study also confirmed something I have also encountered previously – that those with higher analytical thinking skills actually displayed more motivated reasoning when combined with partisan bias. Essentially smarter people have the potential to be better and more confident at their motivated reasoning. This is a huge reason for caution and humility – motivated reasoning is a powerful force, and being smart not only does not necessarily protect us from it, but may make it worse.
Finally, the single strongest predictor of accepting false headlines as true was familiarity. If a subject had encountered the claim previously, they were much more likely to believe it. This is perhaps the most concerning factor to come out of this review, because it means that mere repetition may be enough to get most people to accept a false reality. This has big implications for the “echochamber” effect on both mainstream and social media. If you get most of your news from one or a few ideologically aligned outlets, you essentially are allowing them to craft your perception of reality.
From all this data, what (individually and as a society) should we do about this, if anything?
First, I think we need to seriously consider how critical thinking is taught (or not taught) in schools. Real critical thinking skills need to be taught at every level and in almost every subject, but also as a separate dedicated course (perhaps combined with some basic scientific literacy and media savvy). Hey, one can dream.
The probability of doing something meaningful in terms of regulating media seems close to zero. That ship has sailed. The fairness doctrine is gone. We live in the proverbial wild west of misinformation, and this is not likely to change anytime soon. Therefore, individually, we can protect ourselves by being skeptical, working our analytical thinking skills, checking our own biases and motivated reasoning, and not relying on a few ideologically aligned sources of news. One good rule of thumb is to be especially skeptical of any news that reinforces your existing biases. But dealing with a societal problem on an individual level is always a tricky proposition.
The post Who Believes Misinformation first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.
Designing research studies to determine what is going on inside the minds of animals is extremely challenging. The literature is littered with past studies that failed to properly control for all variables and thereby overinterpreted the results. The challenge is that we cannot read the minds of animals, and they cannot communicate directly to us using language. We have to infer what is going on in their minds from their behavior, and inference can be tricky.
One specific question is whether or not our closest ancestors have a “theory of mind”. This is the ability to think about what other creatures are thinking and feeling. Typical humans do this naturally – we know that other people have minds like our own and we can think strategically about the implications of what other people think, how to predict their behavior based upon this, and how to manipulate the thoughts of other people in order to achieve our ends.
Animal research over the last century or so has been characterized by assumptions that some cognitive ability is unique to humans, only to find that this ability exists in some animals, at least in a precursor form. This makes sense, as we have evolved from other animals, most of our abilities likely did not come out of nowhere but evolved from more basic precursors.
But it is still undeniably true that humans are unique in the animal kingdom for our sophisticated cognitive abilities. Our language, abstraction, problem solving, and technological ability is significantly advanced beyond any other animal. We therefore cannot just assume that even our closest relatives possess any specific cognitive ability that humans have, and therefore this is a rich target of research.
The specific question of whether or not our ape relatives have a theory of mind remains an open research controversy. Previous research has suggested that they might, but all of this research was designed around the question of whether or not another individual had some specific piece of knowledge. Does the subject ape know that another ape or a human knows a piece of information? This research suggests that they might, but there remains a controversy over how to interpret the results – again, what can we infer from the animal’s behavior?
A new study seeks to inform this discussion by adding another type of research – looking at whether or not a subject ape, in this case a bonobo, understands that a human researcher lacks information. This is exploring the theory of mind from the perspective of another creatures ignorance rather than their knowledge. The advantage here, from a research perspective, is that such a theory of mind would require that the bonobo simultaneously knows the relevant piece of information and that a human researcher does not know this information – that their mental map of reality is different from another creature’s mental map of reality.
The setup is relatively simple. The bonobo sits across from a human researcher, and at a 90 degree angle from a “game master”. The game master places a treat under one of several cups in full view of the bonobo and the human researcher. They then wait 5 seconds and then the researcher reveals the treat and gives it to the bonobo. This is the training phase – letting the bonobo know that there is a treat there and they will be given the treat by the human researcher after a delay.
In the test phase an opaque barrier is placed between the human researcher and the cups, and this barrier either has a window or it doesn’t. So in some conditions the human researcher knows where the treat is and in others they don’t. The research question is – will the bonobo point to the cup more often and more quickly when the human researcher does not know where the treat is?
The results were pretty solid – the bonobos in multiple tests pointed to the cup with the treat far more often, quickly, and insistently when the human researcher did not know where the treat was. They also ran the experiment with no researcher, to make sure the bonobo was not just reaching for the treat, and again they did not point to the cup when there was no human researcher to communicate to.
No one experiment like this is ever definitive, and it’s the job of researchers to think of other and more simple ways to explain the results. But the behavior of the bonobos in this experimental setup matched what was predicted if they indeed have at least a rudimentary theory of mind. They seem to know when the human researcher knew where the treat was, independent of the bonobo’s own knowledge of where the treat was.
This kind of behavior makes sense for an intensely social animal, like bonobos. Having a theory of mind about other members of your community is a huge advantage on cooperative behavior. Hunting in particular is an obvious scenario where coordination ads to success (bonobos do, in fact, hunt).
This will not be the final word on this contentious question, but does move the needle one click in the direction of concluding that apes likely have a theory of mind. We will see if these results replicate, and what other research designs have to say about this question.
The post Do Apes Have a Theory of Mind first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.
What really happened — and what didn't — in the 2024 telecom cyberattack.
Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choicesEverything, apparently, has a second life on TikTok. At least this keeps us skeptics busy – we have to redebunk everything we have debunked over the last century because it is popping up again on social media, confusing and misinforming another generation. This video is a great example – a short video discussing the “incorruptibility’ of St. Teresa of Avila. This is mainly a Catholic thing (but also the Eastern Orthodox Church) – the notion that the bodies of saints do not decompose, but remain in a pristine state after death, by divine intervention. This is considered a miracle, and for a time was a criterion for sainthood.
The video features Carlos Eire, a Yale professor of history focusing on medieval religious history. You may notice that the video does not include any shots of the actual body of St. Teresa. I could not find any online. Her body is not on display like some incorruptibles, but has been exhumed in 1914 and again recently. So we only have the reports of the examiners. This is where much of the confusion is generated – the church defines incorruptible very differently than the believers who then misrepresent the actual evidence. Essentially, if the soft tissues are preserved in any way (so the corpse has not completely skeletonized) and remains somewhat flexible, that’s good enough.
The case of Teresa is typical – one of the recent examiners said, “There is no color, there is no skin color, because the skin is mummified, but you can see it, especially the middle of the face.” So the body is mummified and you can only partly make out the face. That is probably not what most believers imagine when the think of miraculous incorruptibility.
This is the same story over and over – first hand accounts of actual examiners describe a desiccated corpse, in some state of mummification. Whenever they are put on display, that is exactly what you see. Sometimes body parts (like feet or hands) are cut off and preserved separately as relics. Often a wax or metal mask is placed over the face because the appearance may be upsetting to some of the public. The wax masks can be made to look very lifelike, and some viewers may think they are looking at the actual corpse. But the narrative among believers is often very different.
It has also been found that there are many very natural factors that correlate with the state of the allegedly incorruptible bodies. A team of researchers from the University of Pisa explored the microenvironments of the tombs:
“They discovered that small differences in temperature, moisture, and construction techniques lead to some tombs producing naturally preserved bodies while others in the same church didn’t. Now you can debate God’s role in choosing which bodies went into which tombs before these differences were known, but I’m going to stick with the corpses. Once the incorrupt bodies were removed from these climates or if the climates changed, they deteriorated.”
The condition of the bodies seems to be an effect of the environment, not the saintliness of the person in life.
It is also not a secret – though not advertised by promoters of miraculous incorruptibility – that the bodies are often treated in order to preserve them. This goes beyond controlling the environment. Some corpses are treated with acid as a preservative, or oils or sealed with wax.
When you examine each case in detail, or the phenomenon as a whole, what you find is completely consistent with what naturally happens to bodies after death. Most decay completely to skeletons. However, in the right environment, some may be naturally mummified and may partly or completely not go through putrefaction. But if their environment is changed they may then proceed to full decay. And bodies are often treated to help preserve them. There is simply no need for anything miraculous to explain any of these cases.
There is also a good rule of thumb for any such miraculous or supernatural claim – if there were actually cases of supernatural preservation, we would all have seen it. This would be huge news, and you would not have to travel to some church in Italy to get a few of an encased corpse covered by a wax mask.
As a side note, and at the risk of sounding irreverent, I wonder if any maker of a zombie film considered having the corpse of an incorruptible animate. If done well, that could be a truly horrific scene.
The post Incorruptible Skepticism first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.
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Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choicesOn January 20th a Chinese tech company released the free version of their chatbot called DeepSeek. The AI chatbot, by all accounts, is about on par with existing widely available chatbots, like ChatGPT. It does not represent any new abilities or breakthrough in quality. And yet the release shocked the industry causing the tech-heavy stock market Nasdaq to fall 3%. Let’s review why that is, and then I will give some thoughts on what this means for AI in general.
What was apparently innovative about DeepSeek is that, the company claims, it was trained for only $8 million. Meanwhile ChatGPT 4 training cost over $100. The AI tech industry is of the belief that further advances in LLMs (large language models – a type of AI) requires greater investments, with ChatGPT-5 estimated to cost over a billion dollars. Being able to accomplish similar results at a fraction of the cost is a big deal. It may also mean that existing AI companies are overvalued (which is why their stocks tumbled).
Further, the company that made DeepSeek used mainly lower power graphics chips. Apparently they did have a horde of high end chips (the export of which are banned to China) but was able to combine them with more basic graphics chips to create DeepSeek. Again, this is what is disruptive – they are able to get similar results with lower cost components and cheaper training. Finally, this innovation represents a change for the balance of AI tech between the US and China. Up until now China has mainly been following the US, copying its technology and trailing by a couple of years. But now a Chinese company has innovated something new, not just copied US technology. This is what has China hawks freaking out. (Mr. President, we cannot allow an AI gap!)
There is potentially some good and some bad to the DeepSeek phenomenon. From a purely industry and market perspective, this could ultimately be a good thing. Competition is healthy. And it is also good to flip the script a bit and show that innovation does not always mean bigger and more expensive. Low cost AI will likely have the effect of lowering the bar for entry so that not only the tech giants are playing. I would also like to see innovation that allows for the operation of AI data centers requiring less energy. Energy efficiency is going to have to be a priority.
But what are the doomsayers saying? There are basically two layers to the concerns – fear over AI in general, and fears over China. Cheaper more efficient AIs might be good for the market, but this will also likely accelerate the development and deployment of AI applications, something which is already happening so fast that many experts fear we cannot manage security risks and avoid unintended consequences.
For example, LLMs can write code, and in some cases they can even alter their own code, even unexpectedly. Recently an AI demonstrated the ability to clone itself. This has often been considered a tipping point where we potentially lose control over AI – AI that an iterate and duplicate itself without human intervention, leading to code no one fully understands. This will make it increasingly difficult to know how an AI app is working and what it is capable of. Cheaper LLMs leading to proliferation obviously makes all this more likely to happen and therefore more concerning. It’s a bit like CRISPR – cheap genetic manipulation is great for research and medical applications, but at some point we begin to get concerned about cheap and easy genetic engineering.
What about the China angle? I wrote recently about the TikTok hubbub, and concerns about an authoritarian rival country having access to large amounts of data on US citizens as well as the ability to put their thumb on the scale of our internal political discourse (not to mention deliberate dumbing down our citizenry). If China takes the lead in AI this will give them another powerful platform to do the same. At the very least it subjects people outside of China to Chinese government censorship. DeepSeek, for example, will not discuss any details of Tiananmen Square, because that topic is taboo by the Chinese government.
It is difficult to know, while we are in the middle of all of this happening, how it will ultimately play out. In 20 years or so will we look back at this time as a period of naive AI panic, with fears of AI largely coming to nothing? Or will we look back and realize we were all watching a train wreck in slow motion while doing nothing about it? There is a third possibility – the YdK pathway. Perhaps we pass some reasonable regulations that allow for the industry to develop and innovate, while protecting the public from the worst risks and preventing authoritarian governments from getting their hands on a tool of ultimate oppression (at least outside their own countries). Then we can endlessly debate what would have happened if we did not take steps to prevent disaster.
The post The Skinny on DeepSeek first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.
Just as important as the question of how much the livestock industry contributes to global warming is whether your giving up meat will have any real impact.
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