News Feeds

High-power lasers are often used to modify polymer surfaces to make high-tech biomedical products, electronics and data storage components. Now researchers have discovered a light-responsive, inexpensive sulfur-derived polymer is receptive to low power, visible light lasers -- promising a more affordable and safer production method in nanotech, chemical science and patterning surfaces in biological applications.

An orange dwarf star has yielded the tiniest 'starquakes' ever recorded, measured by an international team of scientists.

Scientists successfully addressed mathematical challenges in conventional Spectral Matrix analysis, used to analyze three-component seismic signals, by introducing time-delay components. The new technique enables the characterization of various polarized waves and the detection of seismic events that have previously gone unnoticed by conventional methods. These findings pave the way for improving a variety of applications, including earthquake detection.

An Antarctic large-scale experiment is striving to find out if gravity also exists at the quantum level. An extraordinary particle able to travel undisturbed through space seems to hold the answer.

An Antarctic large-scale experiment is striving to find out if gravity also exists at the quantum level. An extraordinary particle able to travel undisturbed through space seems to hold the answer.

The Consortium for the History of Science, Technology, and Medicine has now done 13 podcasts on the history of DNA, beginning with the discovery of nucleic acids through the observation that DNA was the hereditary material (Avery et al.) and (so far) up to the structure of the double helix.  As far I know, our own Dr. Cobb, very eloquent behind the microphone, has been on four of these broadcasts:  #3, 4, 7 and the newest one #13, about Watson, Crick, and the double helix.

You can access the whole lot by clicking on this screenshot, or get to the individual podcasts by clicking on the screenshot below.

This podcast series illuminates the history of seminal discoveries and research through which we learned about the molecule that has been dubbed as the “secret of life” itself: DNA, or deoxyribonucleic acid.

This series progresses from the first discovery of the substance in 1869 to the late 1950s, when scientists figured out the structure of this molecule and its implications for the way in which it carries out its biological functions. Each episode features scholars and experts from different fields, including the history of science, other humanities and social sciences—such as philosophy, anthropology, sociology of science and STS—the specific areas of science pertinent to the paper being discussed, and science communication.

Click on the “Resources” tab for information for researchers as well as further readings.

Jump to:
Episode 1 on Friedrich Miescher and the discovery of nuclein
Episode 2 on Albrecht Kossel and the discovery of the building blocks of nuclein
Episode 3 on Walter Sutton and the relation between chromosomes and heredity
Episode 4 on Fred Griffith and the discovery of bacterial transformation
Episode 5 on Phoebus Levene, DNA chemistry and the tetranucleotide hypothesis
Episode 6 on William Astbury, Florence Bell and the first X-ray pictures of DNA
Episode 7 on Oswald Avery, Colin McLeod, and Maclyn McCarty and the chemical basis of bacterial transformation
Episode 8 on Maclyn McCarty, Oswald Avery and the enzymatic evidence for DNA as the transforming substance
Episode 9 on Erwin Chargaff and the evidence for non-uniformity of nucleotide base composition in DNA
Episode 10 on Harriet Ephrussi-Taylor, Rollin Hotchkiss and the demonstration of bacterial transformation as a general phenomenon
Episode 11 on Alfred Hershey, Martha Chase, and the conclusive evidence for the function of DNA as the material of heredity.
Episode 12 on Maurice Wilkins, Rosalind Franklin, their collaborators, and the data that supported the double helix model for DNA structure.
Episode 13 on James Watson, Francis Crick, and the DNA Double Helix.

You can hear the latest episode, 62 minutes long, by clicking at the screenshot below, is described comme ça:

Rounding out the story begun in the previous installment, episode 13 of the DNA Papers centers on the publications in which the double helical structure for DNA was proposed, detailed, and its various implications speculated upon. It features four papers, all by Watson and Crick from Cambridge. Together these papers not only proposed that DNA’s three dimensional structure was a double-stranded helix, but also described the antiparallel and complementary nature of its two component strands and the specific pairing of  the component nucleotide bases, namely,  the purines, A and G, with the  pyrimidines T and C respectively. The papers also discussed the implications of these features for the fundamental functions of DNA. . . .

And the participants are:

Soraya de Chadarevian, University of California, Los Angeles
Matthew Cobb, University of Manchester
Nathaniel Comfort, Johns Hopkins University
Georgina Ferry

Using ESA’s Gaia spacecraft, astronomers have tracked down two streams of stars that likely formed the foundation of the Milky Way. Named “Shakti and Shiva,” the two streams contain about 10 million stars, all of which are 12 to 13 billion years old and likely came together even before the spiral arms and disk were formed. These star streams are all moving in roughly similar orbits and have similar compositions. Astronomers think they were probably separate galaxies that merged into the Milky Way shortly after the Big Bang.,

“What’s truly amazing is that we can detect these ancient structures at all,” said lead author Khyati Malhan of the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy (MPIA) in Heidelberg, Germany, in an ESA press release. “The Milky Way has changed so significantly since these stars were born that we wouldn’t expect to recognize them so clearly as a group – but the unprecedented data we’re getting from Gaia made it possible.”

Astrometry Data

Gaia uses astrometry — the precise measurements of the positions and movements of stars and other celestial bodies – and is building the largest, most precise three-dimensional map of our Galaxy by surveying nearly two billion objects.

With Gaia’s data, the researchers were able to determine the orbits of individual stars in the Milky Way, as well as determine their content and composition. These ancient stars are all moving in very similar orbits and the structure of the two different star streams stood out because their stars contained a certain chemical composition.

“Shakti and Shiva populations possess an unconventional combination of orbital and abundance properties that have not been observed previously,” the researchers wrote in their paper, published in the Astrophysical journal. 

By compiling very detailed chemical abundance patterns for each, the astronomers determined these stars were the oldest stars in the galaxy, all born before the disc of the Milky Way had formed.

The components of the Milky Way Galaxy. This artist’s impression shows our roughly 13 billon-year-old ‘barred spiral galaxy’ that is home to a few hundred billion stars. Credit: Left: NASA/JPL-Caltech; right: ESA; layout: ESA/ATG medialab.

“The stars there are so ancient that they lack many of the heavier metal elements created later in the Universe’s lifetime,” said co-author Hans-Walter Rix, also of MPIA and the lead ‘galactic archaeologist’ in this research, which began in 2022. “These heavy metals are those forged within stars and scattered through space when they die. The stars in our galaxy’s heart are metal-poor, so we dubbed this region the Milky Way’s ‘poor old heart’. Until now, we had only recognized these very early fragments that came together to form the Milky Way’s ancient heart. With Shakti and Shiva, we now see the first pieces that seem comparably old but located further out. These signify the first steps of our galaxy’s growth towards its present size.”

While the two streams are similar, they aren’t exactly the same. Shakti stars orbit a little further from the Milky Way’s center and in more circular orbits than Shiva stars. The streams are named two divine beings from Hindu philosophy who worked together to create the Universe.

Because of Gaia’s ability to provide data to create incredibly detailed celestial maps, the researchers were able to build a dynamical map of that includes the two star streams plus other known components that have played a role in our galaxy’s formation.

“Revealing more about our galaxy’s infancy is one of Gaia’s goals, and it’s certainly achieving it,” said Timo Prusti, Project Scientist for Gaia at ESA. “We need to pinpoint the subtle yet crucial differences between stars in the Milky Way to understand how our galaxy formed and evolved. This requires incredibly precise data – and now, thanks to Gaia, we have that data. As we discover surprise parts of our galaxy like the Shiva and Shakti streams, we’re filling the gaps and painting a fuller picture of not only our current home, but our earliest cosmic history.”

Further reading:
ESA press release
Paper: Shiva and Shakti: Presumed Proto-Galactic Fragments in the Inner Milky Way

The post Gaia Finds Ancient Streams of Stars That Formed the Milky Way appeared first on Universe Today.

The rollout of heat pumps and other green heating technologies is going far too slowly in the UK – here’s what’s needed to get it moving

Today we have photos and videos of Hawaii sent in by Rosemary Alles, with photography credits to both her and Hale Anderson. The text is by Rosemary and is indented; you can enlarge the photos by clicking on them.

Background

Sri Lanka lies in the shadow of her giant neighbor India; a teardrop on the vast slate of the Indian Ocean. My family emigrated from our island nation many moons ago, leaving a jeweled landscape ravaged by corruption, ethnic violence, and terrorism.

My first home in the West was in Canada and then on the Big Island of Hawaii. These days, I travel between South Africa and Hawaii centering my work around the protection of iconic mega-fauna.

Hawaii, like Sri Lanka, is home to a myriad endemic species; many are critically endangered, endangered or threatened. Frequently referred to as the “Endangered Species Capital of the World”, my island state is also home to Hawaii Volcano’s National Park. 344,812 acres of rainforest, desert and windswept magnificence that boasts at least one success story; the nearly flightless Nene Goose. (Branta sandvicensis). This once endangered bird has made a comeback thanks to ongoing funding and restoration efforts.

From Jerry: Here are two photos I took on the Big Island of a nene crossing sign and the goose itself: July 1, 2019.

Last month, my sister and I were on the Big Island of Hawaii memorializing my mother’s passing. While there, Kīlauea erupted, throwing molten rock 35-50 feet in the air. A shield volcano, Kīlauea is the youngest and most active volcano on the Islands. I’ve been close to many lava flows during my years Hawaii, and this time, we were -once again- fortunate to see Kīlauea erupt on September 15th, just hours before it stopped. A video is here.

Before we left, my sister to her home in Toronto, and I to South Africa, we sat by the ocean where the water meets the sand. That evening, as the sea swallowed the sun in a crepuscular ritual, the sky turned red, a fiery blood-orange I had never seen before, not in all my years on the islands.

Mālama ‘Āina. Take care of the land, take care of the sea.

Images of the fiery sunset have not been adjusted at all, other than for cropping.

These are the images of the fiery sunset:

A brief explanation of the phenomena (the vivid nature of the sunset and the detail in the clouds) is explained as follows (by an astronomer-friend in France). Please refer to the two drawings obviously not drawn to scale.

Low hanging clouds are illuminated by the sun from below. The sun has set for the observer (me) but not from the perspective of the clouds. The grazing light enhances the contrast. Essentially the light from the sun is reflecting at a low angle on the clouds causing grazing.

The tree in the foreground of the eruption-image is an Ohi’a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha). As of this writing, the species, endemic to Hawaii, is suffering from ROD (Rapid Ohia Death) from invasive fungi. Ohi’a is one of the first species to appear on “new” lava – once it has cooled.

Videos and text here: “Kīlauea was erupting at the summit most recently from September 10-16, 2023. Several roughly east-west oriented vents on the western side of the downdropped block within Kīlauea’s summit caldera generated lava flows onto Halema‘uma‘u crater floor, within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. ”

“Halemaʻumaʻu is home to Pele, goddess of fire and volcanoes, according to the traditions of Hawaiian religion. Halemaʻumaʻu means ‘house of the ʻāmaʻu fern’.”

Kilauea after the eruption stopped:

Three videos of the 2023 Kilauea eruption:

A  Wild Hawaiian Orchid.

” Their technical names are Anoetochilus sandvicensis (the jewel orchid); Liparis hawaiensis (the twayblade orchid); and Platanthera holochila. These native orchids grow in the very highest places within the island’s forests and bog.” 

Orchids for my mother on the blue slate of the Pacific.

The Golden Pools of Keawaiki:

From this site:

“The Golden Pools of Keawaiki on the Kohala coast are landlocked freshwater ponds (anchialine pools) connected to the ocean. Lava fields surround them, and the only greenery is saplings growing at these oases. The Golden Pools of Keawaiki got their name from the gold-colored algae growing on the underwater rocks.”

Mauna Kea, the White Mountain, so named for the snow along its flanks during the colder months of the year. Mauna Kea is ~13,800 feet high.

Quote: “If we measure the entire mountain from top to its base, which is referred to as the ‘dry prominence’, Mauna Kea is 500 metres (1640 feet) taller than Everest.”

The observatory-domes of several world class telescopes are located atop the mountain; the W.M Keck Telescope, the Gemini, the Subaru, the CFHT (Canada France Hawaii Telescope), and the NASA infrared Telescope Facility are among the ~13 scopes on the White Mountain. I worked for both the CFHT and Keck Telescopes prior to switching career paths. The Thirty Meter Telescope (the TMT) was slated for completion prior to 2019, but was successfully halted after several years of protest by native Hawaiian groups. Hawaiian mythology considers the mountain “sacred”. In a tragedy for science, the compromise, if one is reached, may prove fatal for the future of astronomy on Mauna Kea, the world’s best site for ground-based astronomy.

Quote: “The height of the mountain, lack of light pollution, dry atmosphere, and minimal air disturbances make Maunakea the foremost place in the world for astronomy research.”

Quote: “Crucially, the MKSOA includes representatives from both astronomical observatories and Native Hawaiian communities. Its members say it marks a new approach, one that for the first time gives Native Hawaiians a voting role in overseeing the mountaintop. And although board members don’t want to get ahead of the process, an emerging compromise could see the embattled TMT built atop the peak in exchange for the decommissioning of several telescopes.”

Ironically, Hawaii’s coastline is also “sacred’ to Hawaiians, however, no clarion call has been issued to decommission the multiple hotels along the coastline. Connect the dots. Commerce and skill sets.

Mauna Loa, the Long Mountain, slightly less in height than Mauna Kea. Hawaii Volcano’s National Park lies to the south of Mauna Loa.

In 1974 Robert Nozick published the book, Anarchy, State, and Utopia, in which he posed the following thought experiment: If you could be plugged into an “experience machine” (what we would likely call today a virtual reality or “Matrix”) that could perfectly replicate real-life experiences, but was 100% fake, would you do it? The question was whether you would do this irreversibly for the rest of your life. What if, in this virtual reality, you could live an amazing life – perfect health and fitness, wealth and resources, and unlimited opportunity for adventure and fun?

Nozick hypothesized that people generally would not elect to do this (as summarized in a recent BBC article). He gave three reasons – we want to actual do certain things, and not just have the experience of doing them, we want to be a certain kind of person and that can only happen in reality, and we want meaning and purpose in our lives, which is only possible in reality.

A lot has happened in the last 50 years and it is interesting to revisit Nozick’s thought experiment. I would say I basically disagree with Nozick, but there is a lot of nuance that needs to be explored. For me there are two critical variables, only one of which I believe was explicitly addressed by Nozick. In his thought experience once you go into the experience machine you have no memory of doing so, therefore you would believe the virtual reality to be real. I would not want to do this. So in that sense I agree with him – but he did not give this as a major reason people would reject the choice. I would be much more likely to go into a virtual reality if I retained knowledge of the real world and that I was in a virtual world.

Second – are there other people in this virtual reality with me, or is every other entity an AI? To me the worst case scenario is that I know I am in a virtual reality and that I am alone with nothing but AIs. That is truly a lonely and pointless existence, and no matter how fun and compelling it would be, I think I would find that realization hard to live with indefinitely. But, If I didn’t know that I was living in a virtual reality, than it wouldn’t matter that I was alone, at least not to the self in the virtual reality. But would I condemn myself to such an existence, even knowing I would be blissfully unaware? Then there is what I would consider to be the best case scenario – I know I am living in a virtual reality and there are other actual people in here with me. There is actually another variable – does anything that happens in the virtual reality have the potential to affect the real world? If I write a book, could that book be published in the real world?

Nozick’s thought experiment, I think, was pure in that you would not know you are in a virtual reality, there is no one else in there with you, and you are forever cut off from the real world. In that case I think the ultimate pointlessness of such an existence would be too much. I would likely only consider opting for this at the end of my life, especially if I were ill or disabled to a significant degree. This would be a great option in many cases. But let’s consider other permutations, with 50 years of additional experience.

I also think that at the other end of the spectrum, with people knowing they are in virtual reality, there are real people together in this virtual world, and it is connected to the real world, than most people would find living large parts of their life in virtual reality acceptable and enjoyable. This is the “Ready Player One” scenario. We know from experience that people already do some version of this, spending lots of time playing immersive video games or engaging in virtual communities on social media. People find meaning in their virtual lives.

What about the AI variable? I think we have to distinguish general AI from narrow AI. Are the AI sentient? If so, then I think it doesn’t matter that they are AI. If they are just narrow AI algorithms, the knowledge of that would be bothersome. But could people be fooled by narrow AI? I think the answer there is unequivocally yes. People have a tendency to anthropomorphize, and we generally accept and respond to the illusion of human interaction. People are already falling in love with narrow AIs and virtual characters that don’t actually exist.

What about the “Matrix” scenario? This is something else to consider – is all of humanity in the virtual reality? In Nozick’s thought experience the Matrix was run by benign and well-meaning overlords that just want us to have an enjoyable existence, without malevolent intent. I do think it would matter whether or not a subset of humanity were in the Matrix, with other people still advancing technology, art, science, and philosophy and running civilization. It is quite another thing for humanity in its entirety to check out of reality and just exist in a Matrix. Civilization would essentially be over. Some futurists speculate that this may be the ultimate fate of many civilizations, turning inward and creating a virtual civilization. The advantages may just be too massive to ignore, and some civilizations may decide that they have achieved the ultimate end already and go down the path of becoming a virtual civilization.

In the end I think Nozick’s solution to his own thought experiment was too simplistic and one sided. I do agree with him that people need a sense of purpose and meaning. But on the other hand, I think we know a lot more now about how compelling and appealing virtual reality can be, that people will respond emotionally to a sufficiently compelling illusion, and people will find fulfillment even in a virtual reality.

What I think this means for the future of humanity, at least in the short run, is something close to the Ready Player One scenario. We will build increasingly sophisticated and compelling virtual realities, and as a result people will spend more and more time there. But this virtual reality will be seamlessly integrated into physical reality. Yes, some people will use it as an escape, but it will also be just another aspect of actual reality.

The post The Experience Machine Thought Experiment first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.

A robot that can design, build and test objects made from folded paper can make paper planes that fly further than ones made by a human having the same number of attempts

A unique site in Brazil features rock carvings closely associated with dinosaur tracks, suggesting prehistoric people saw the footprints as meaningful

The not-so-famous UFO case that caused the US Congress to spend millions of taxpayer dollars.

The Luna structure, a 1.8-kilometre-wide depression in north-west India, may have been caused by the largest meteorite to strike Earth in the past 50,000 years

https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/sciencesalon/mss417_Max_Stearns_2024_03_26.mp3 Download MP3

Order the Artificial Intelligence issue of Skeptic magazine (in print or digital format).

Looking ahead to the 2024 election, most Americans sense that something is deeply wrong with our democracy. We face extreme polarization, increasingly problematic candidates, and a government that can barely function, let alone address urgent challenges. Maxwell Stearns has been a constitutional law professor for over 30 years. He argues that our politics are not merely dysfunctional. Our constitutional system is broken. And without radical reform, the U.S. risks collapse or dictatorship.

In Parliamentary America: The Least Radical Means of Radically Repairing Our Broken Democracy, Stearns argues that we are in the midst of the biggest constitutional crisis since the Civil War, and that the roots of the crisis are in the U.S. Constitution itself. The Framers never intended a two-party system. In fact, they feared entrenched political parties and mistakenly believed they had designed a scheme that avoided them. And yet the structures they created paved the way for our entrenched two-party system.

From the start, our systems of elections and executive accountability thwarted the Framers’ expectations. In the information age, it has spun out of control, and the result is a hyperpolarized Republican-Democratic duopoly that has poisoned our politics and society and threatens to end our democracy. The two-party system now undermines our basic constitutional structures, with separation of powers and checks and balances yielding to hyper-partisan loyalties. Rather than compromises arising from shifting coalitions, we experience ever-widening policy swings based on which party takes control of the White House in increasingly combative elections. The restrictive nature of the choices voters face in each election cycle encourages battles for the souls of the Democratic and Republican Parties, with more moderate voices on one side and more ideologically strident ones on the other. This two-party stranglehold on our politics is exactly what the Framers feared.

To survive as a democracy, we must end the two-party deadlock and introduce more political parties. But viable third parties are a pipe dream in our system given the current rules of the game. Stearns argues that we must change the rules, amend the Constitution, and transform America into a parliamentary democracy. Unlike our two-party presidential system, well-functioning parliamentary systems have multiple political parties that represent an array of perspectives, giving voters more choices that better align with their views. In such systems, parties compete in elections and then, based on the results, form a majority governing coalition. In contrast with the endless hyper-partisanship that pushes Democrats and Republicans further and further apart, coalitions represent the nation’s ideological core, capturing views of multiple parties, accommodating competing positions, and moderating the most extreme ideologies or partisan commitments. This improves the outcomes for citizens, which helps to explain why surveys have found that voters derive greater satisfaction and the governments are more responsive in parliamentary systems.

Achieving a robust parliamentary democracy in the U.S. requires amending the Constitution. Although this is difficult to do, Stearns explains why his specific set of proposals is more politically viable than other increasingly prominent reform proposals, which cannot be enacted, will not end our constitutional crisis, or both. What does he propose doing?

1. Double the size of the House of Representatives, with half continuing to be elected by district, a new cohort elected by party, and the entire chamber based on proportional representation. This reform will allow us to end the two-party duopoly and create space for thriving third-, fourth- and fifth-parties that better align with voters’ values/worldviews.
2. Transform how we choose the president and vice president. Power to choose the president will shift from individual votes processed through the Electoral College to party coalitions within the House of Representatives. They will select the president and vice president from party slates by inviting up to five party leaders, in descending order of representation, to negotiate a majority coalition.
3. Provide a new mechanism for ending a failing presidency. The House can remove the president with a 60 percent no confidence vote based on “maladministration.” This standard is lower than the requirements for impeachment, and the amendments leave the impeachment clause intact. These reforms infuse parliamentary selection, proportional representation, and coalition building into the U.S. constitutional system while retaining and preserving our most essential institutional structures. The proposal would end the two-party system, create space for multiple parties, end partisan gerrymandering, moderate the most extreme ideologies, reduce polarization, and incentivize negotiation and compromise.

Maxwell L. Stearns is the Venable, Baetjer & Howard Professor of Law at the University of Maryland Carey School of Law. He has authored dozens of articles and several books on the Constitution, the Supreme Court, and the economic analysis of law.

If you enjoy the podcast, please show your support by making a $5 or $10 monthly donation.

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” —Sherlock Holmes

The “game” of my title refers to the one played by media outlets and podcasters for the past seven years interviewing rogue scientists and conspiracy theorists to spin tales of Americans being zapped by nefarious foreign actors with sonic or microwave weapons. This includes the authors of studies suggesting that there were brain and inner ear injuries suffered by many victims of Havana Syndrome when those studies were clearly flawed and any competent mainstream scientist who read them would have seen these shortcomings. Indeed, they did—there were at least two classified studies that found no evidence of such attacks, instead emphasizing the likely role of stress.1, 2, 3, 4 Publicly, these politicians and pundits were referring to the events in Cuba as attacks, yet gave no hint of the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies.5

On March 18, 2024, the National Institutes of Health released two studies that failed to find any evidence of brain or inner ear damage in victims of Havana Syndrome—a mysterious array of ailments that have befallen U.S. Government personnel in Havana, Cuba, since 2016.6, 7 The results were published in the prestigious Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) and are in stark contrast with two earlier studies published in the same journal in 2018 and 2019 that purported to uncover brain anomalies in American diplomats and intelligence officers who served in Havana.8, 9 While some media outlets are portraying this discrepancy as a deepening mystery, it is nothing of the sort.

The earlier publications were riddled with flaws.10 In fact, the editorial board of the European journal Cortex called for the authors of the 2018 study to clarify their methods or retract the article.11 Their attempt at clarification did little to quell the controversy.12 The NIH study was more comprehensive and took great pains to have a well-matched group of control subjects. The studies were conducted over a five-year period beginning in 2018. Sophisticated MRI scans were taken of the brains of Havana Syndrome participants and compared to a healthy control group of government workers in similar jobs. Some of the control subjects even worked at the American Embassy in Havana.

The Havana Cohort: A Group Under Stress

A major finding of the new study was that 41 percent of those who reported Anomalous Health Incidents (AHIs) “from nearly every geographic area, met the criteria for Functional Neurological Disorders” (FND) or exhibited symptoms indicative of underlying psychological distress.13 It is noteworthy that mass psychogenic illness, which some skeptics have long tied to the episode, is a form of FND. The presence of functional disorders is not surprising because they are commonly triggered by stress and the American staff in Havana were, by any definition, under exceptional stress. They had been counselled that they would be under surveillance 24/7 once they arrived in Havana and later told that they may be targets of a mysterious weapon and to be vigilant for strange sounds and symptoms. They were even warned not to stand or sleep near windows as it could render them vulnerable to an attack. In FNDs the brain structure and hardware are unaffected, but the sending and receiving of messages is disrupted, hence neurologists often refer to it as a software issue.

Havana Syndrome participants also reported more symptoms of depression, fatigue, and post-traumatic stress. The lead author of one of the studies, Dr. Leighton Chan, emphasized that the symptoms in Havana Syndrome patients were “very real, cause significant disruption in the lives of those affected and can be quite prolonged, disabling and difficult to treat.”14 Another member of the research team, neuropsychologist Louis French, noted that the presence of mood symptoms and post-traumatic stress were not unexpected. “Often these individuals have had significant disruption to their lives and continue to have concerns about their health and their future. This level of stress can have significant negative impacts on the recovery process,” he said.15

No Evidence of Attacks

As for the role of a directed energy weapon that has long been proposed as the cause behind the events, Dr. Chan said if an “external phenomenon” such as “a directed energy ‘attack’ is truly involved it seems to create symptoms without persistent or detectable physiologic changes.”16 While the researchers found no evidence of an external source for the symptoms, this does not prove that there wasn’t one, leading one media outlet, the Daily Mail, to suggest that a weapon was likely involved but its presence was undetectable. The newspaper interviewed Georgetown University Neurologist Dr. James Giordano, a persistent critic of the possible role of psychogenic illness in Havana Syndrome victims, who was quick to dispute the findings of FNDs. “Let me be very definitive, we’re not talking about a functional neurological disorder, which is a psychosomatic disorder,” Dr. Giordano said. “We’re talking about a disruption of neurological function, that then created a host of effects, including downstream physiological effects that manifested themselves cognitively, motorically, and behaviorally.”17

Giordano’s position lacks supporting evidence. One could also argue that there was no evidence of extraterrestrial involvement, but that doesn’t prove space aliens weren’t targeting victims with a ray gun. On the weight of evidence, stress appears to have played a major role in the outbreak. While critics like Giordano have jumped on the statement that the symptoms were real and severe as evidence that they were not functional, psychosomatic symptoms are real and can be as severe as any other symptoms and often involve the same brain pathways.18

After release of the NIH reports, one of the world’s leading experts on FNDs, British neurologist Jon Stone, told The Guardian science podcast that this condition was a plausible explanation as many of the patient’s symptoms “got worse over time,” which is typical of a functional disorder. Brain injuries, on the other hand, are typically “worse at the time of the injury, then they slowly improve,” he said. The paper’s world affairs editor Julian Borger was then asked to weigh in. He said that while a “secret weapon” seemed far-fetched, it was equally unlikely that so many diplomats and spies would be affected by psychogenic illness. This response highlights a common misconception of psychogenic disorders: the symptoms are real and can happen to anyone regardless of education level or training.19

The Extraordinary Claims of David Relman

In 1953, Nobel laureate Irving Langmuir devised the term “pathological science” to refer to instances “where there is no dishonesty involved but where people are tricked into false results by a lack of understanding about what human beings can do to themselves in the way of being led astray by subjective effects, wishful thinking” and the like.20 The history of science is rife with examples of extraordinary claims that were eventually discredited. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries several astronomers, most notably Percival Lowell, claimed to discern through their telescopes a network of canals on Mars. This turned out to be an exercise in the subjective nature of human perception involving Martian geology where people saw what they expected to see. In 1903, French physicist Prosper-René Blondlot claimed to have discovered N-rays, a new form of radiation that turned out to be a product of experimenter bias and self-deception.21, 22 In 1989, chemists Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann created international headlines amid claims they had achieved cold fusion—a limitless source of clean energy. Their experiment turned out to be flawed and could not be reproduced. To this list we should add the name of Stanford microbiologist David Relman.

Media coverage of the NIH studies has been dominated by the lack of evidence for brain damage and the findings of significant stress-related disorders in many of the subjects who reported anomalous health incidents. Considerable attention has been given to Dr. Relman, who was chosen by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) editors to deliver an accompanying editorial. Relman oversaw two panels that studied the claims of people reporting AHIs and the circumstances surrounding them.23, 24 He contends there is still a mystery surrounding some of the victims and holds the door ajar to the possible involvement of “pulsed radiofrequency energy.” The problem is, the two panels he oversaw showed bias by failing to interview prominent skeptics, ignoring evidence for mundane explanations, and giving considerable weight to unproven claims that supported his pet energy weapon theory. I have previously documented these and other shortcomings in Skeptic, including how one of his panels botched the diagnostic criteria for the presence of psychogenic illness.25, 26, 27 Neither panel conducted a single physical examination of a patient or engaged in any directed testing.28 The decision to choose Relman to write the commentary may be an attempt by the JAMA editorial board to mitigate the damage to their reputation after they published two poorly designed studies that have received much criticism by the scientific community.29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37

A bugaboo of Relman is the appearance of “abrupt-onset sensory phenomena” in a subset of patients on which he places great significance.38 In his commentary he mentions these cases while discussing “Havana Syndrome” reports from around the world. He writes: “Most strikingly, these phenomena often displayed strong location dependence, in that they quickly dissipated when the individuals vacated their initial location, and then returned when the location was revisited.” These incidents were followed by such conditions as “vertigo, dizziness, imbalance, blurry vision, tinnitus, headache, nausea, and cognitive dysfunction, sometimes leading to chronic disability.”39 The implication is that they may have been targeted by a directed energy weapon.40

In the press briefing, Dr. Chan said that his team looked at these reports that Relman had flagged as “cases of concern” for intelligence agencies—people who reported an acute onset coinciding with a “strong sense of locality or directionality.” But Chan said he was unable to study them as Relman had not provided the name of a single person involved, and that his definition of “locality or directionality” was not well-defined. Dr. Chan also noted that “cases of concern” were confined to “a really small group of individuals” who were affected very early in the outbreak in Cuba because early on U.S. Embassy personnel were counselled to move away from where they initially experienced symptoms. “If you’re on the X, get off the X,” they were told.41 Cases of concern were first noted in the National Academies of Sciences study that was conducted between 2019 and 2020, and only looked at reports in Cuba and China. If there were later cases of concern identified globally in Relman’s second panel that convened between 2021 and 2022, it was not conveyed to Dr. Chan.42

Why is it that the two panels headed by David Relman uncovered patterns that the American intelligence community—including the CIA and FBI—failed to find? This is a red flag. It is noteworthy that Relman’s panels had limited resources and access to government documents. For instance, in discussing the National Academy of Sciences committee and the attempt to examine cases of concern, he observed: “We did not really have the means to do our own investigation of these cases. We simply collected all that we could from those that had done various and sundry investigations and tried to make the most sense out of it we could.”43

While Relman claims to have found a small group of outliers, why weren’t the names of these victims given to the NIH study authors so they could be examined more closely? If these cases are deemed to be of such significance, why haven’t detailed interviews with these victims been released so others can read the descriptions? How many people are we talking about? The true test of the scientific method is to open your data to outside scrutiny, and in this instance, there is little to scrutinize. The ECREE Principle—extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence—was never more apropos. There are just too many questions surrounding these cases to make the claims that are being asserted. The symptoms in abrupt onset cases can be caused by an array of common conditions. While a sound may appear to be targeted, there is a considerable body of literature on ear-witness testimony, which is notoriously unreliable and subject to error.44 An energy weapon could theoretically produce what is discerned to be a concentrated beam of sound, but so can a cricket rubbing its wings or legs together. We know that some of the reports involving a beam of sound that accompanied early Havana Syndrome victims were recorded during the “attacks,” and later identified as crickets.45, 46 Curiously, Dr. Relman’s commentary was crickets when it came to this alternative explanation.

Occam’s Razor

Some media commentators and rogue scientists continue to speculate that a small number of cases in U.S. personnel in both Cuba and later around the world, may have involved a directed energy weapon. Yet, Occam’s razor fits well here. Given two competing explanations, the simplest is the most likely. The entire episode is explainable using conventional psychology, and without recourse to foreign actors and secret weapons. It is noteworthy that the NIH findings are consistent with the conclusions of a report issued in March 2023 by the Director of National Intelligence that found no evidence of sonic or microwave weapons or the involvement of state actors. Instead, intelligence agencies traced the health complaints to an array of pre-existing conditions, environmental factors, and anxiety reactions.47

The appearance of Functional Neurological Disorders in the NIH studies is consistent with the early events in Havana, which suggest a psychological origin. A 2022 interview with CIA officer Fulton Armstrong is revealing. Armstrong was in Havana during the initial “attacks” and says that the man who first reported the mysterious sounds and became known as “patient zero,” had engaged in a zealous campaign to get embassy officials to take the sounds seriously. “He was lobbying, if not coercing, people to report symptoms and connect the dots,” he said.48 This lobbying could have primed other staff to frame future sounds and states of unwellness as an attack by a nefarious state actor. It is also notable that when other staff believed they were under attack from a sonic weapon, they recorded the sounds accompanying them. These sounds were consistent with the mating call of the Indies short-tailed cricket.49

By 2017, the State Department began counselling new staff being posted to Cuba to be vigilant for mysterious sounds and health incidents.50 This counselling created an expectation of illness and provided the frame through which sounds and symptoms were interpreted. Suddenly, mundane events such as a headache, fatigue, insomnia, or tinnitus were perceived as symptoms of a possible attack—a classic setup for psychogenic illness.51 “Patient zero” was pivotal in laying the foundation for the mysterious sounds that were noticed to coincide with subsequent “attacks”—the sounds of crickets. While cricket sounds cannot cause physical sensations such as head pressure and tingling, hearing a cricket sound and fearing it may be emanating from a neuroweapon can trigger anxiety reactions. It is well-known that panic attacks often occur when people visit the same location associated with anxiety or previous attacks.

The Importance of Timing

Dr. Relman’s “cases of concern” raise many questions. As Dr. Chan observed, they were poorly defined, small in number, and not a single person was identified or further studied. Relman should release the information on each of these cases so their testimony can be scrutinized. The timing is also important. Relman contends that some of the early victims in Cuba were unaware that their colleagues were suffering from Anomalous Health Incidents.52 This claim is not consistent with the known timeline, which begins with so-called patient zero. This early series of events in Havana have been meticulously pieced together using interviews with over three dozen American and foreign officials and confidential government documents.53, 54

Scrutinizing these cases could help clarify the possible role of what psychologists refer to as “retrospective interpretation.” It is plausible that once alerted to their possible targeting by an energy weapon, staff would have thought back to when they arrived in Havana and identified any unusual sounds or medical events. While at the time these incidents were not deemed to have been worthy of seeking medical attention or reporting to their superiors, later, in light of the energy weapon scare, these ambiguous events could have easily been redefined as “attacks.”55

For years Relman has asserted that there was “clear evidence of an injury to the auditory and vestibular system of the brain” in some Havana Syndrome patients.56 This is a reference to a study conducted by University of Miami neurologist Michael Hoffer.57 The vestibular system deals with the workings of the inner ear, spatial awareness, and balance. Neurologist Robert Baloh, who created some of the tests that were used to assess the patients and has written the standard textbook in the field, has steadfastly maintained that Hoffer’s study was riddled with flaws and failed to demonstrate inner ear damage. Among the study flaws was the mystifying decision not to use housemates as a control group, and the notion that a directed energy attack could cause inner ear or brain damage without affecting hearing, which makes no sense.58 That the NIH studies failed to corroborate Hoffer’s findings comes as no surprise. David Relman is an acclaimed microbiologist, but he is not an expert in vestibular medicine. This is a classic example of someone outside of their field of expertise being led astray.

Relman’s attempt to take a small number of cases that are vaguely defined and discussed in passing in both his commentary and in his two panel reports, are essentially lipstick on a pig. No matter how hard you try to alter its appearance, at the end of the day, it’s still a pig. Like Bigfoot, chupacabras, and alien abductions, the evidence is lacking and there are alternative plausible explanations which are firmly grounded in established science.

About the Author

Robert E. Bartholomew is an Honorary Senior Lecturer in the Department of Psychological Medicine at the University of Auckland in New Zealand. He has written numerous books on the margins of science covering UFOs, haunted houses, Bigfoot, lake monsters—all from a perspective of mainstream science. He has lived with the Malay people in Malaysia, and Aborigines in Central Australia. He is the co-author of two seminal books: Outbreak! The Encyclopedia of Extraordinary Social Behavior with Hilary Evans, and Havana Syndrome with Robert Baloh.

References

1. Acoustic Signals and Physiological Effects on U.S. Diplomats in Cuba, November 2018. Declassified United States Government study.
2. Kirk, J. M. (2019). The strange case of the Havana ‘Sonic Attacks’. International Journal of Cuban Studies, 11(1), 24—42. See p. 27
3. https://bit.ly/4a7JvJY
4. https://bit.ly/49qjQeJ
5. One of the most vocal has been U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.
6. https://bit.ly/43ESTm3
7. https://bit.ly/3VyUDeK
8. https://bit.ly/3TPzPhx
9. https://bit.ly/4cwQM80
10. https://bit.ly/43ziVav
11. https://bit.ly/3PBMoKO
12. https://bit.ly/43uri77
13. https://bit.ly/3VyfKh9
14. ibid.
15. ibid.
16. Chan et al., 2024, op cit., pp. E10—E11.
17. https://bit.ly/3TpaiKE
18. Personal communication with Professor Robert Baloh, Department of Neurology, UCLA Medical School, March 23, 2024. For an excellent overview of FNDs see https://bit.ly/3VBqLyb
19. https://bit.ly/3vpmdAo
20. https://bit.ly/4aaO8mS, quotation on p. 16 reproduced from the original 1953 article with commentary by R.N. Hall.
21. Klotz, Irving M. (1980). “The N-Ray Affair.” Scientific American 242(5):168—175
22. Nye, Mary Jo (1980). N-rays: An Episode in the History and Psychology of Science. Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences 11(1):125—156.
23. https://bit.ly/3xdTnne
24. Declassified United States Government Commissioned Report (2022). Anomalous Health Incidents: Analysis of Potential Causal Mechanisms, IC Experts Panel.
25. https://bit.ly/43uvCTP
26. https://bit.ly/4aaQ6ng
27. https://bit.ly/49fvmcy
28. https://bit.ly/3TzPxfH
29. https://bit.ly/43ziVav
30. https://bit.ly/3PCKbiu
31. https://bit.ly/3IY7gbr
32. https://bit.ly/3PyQT8Y
33. https://bit.ly/3PAXnUU
34. Baloh, R.W., and Bartholomew, R.E. (2020). Havana Syndrome: Mass Psychogenic Illness and the Real Story Behind the Embassy Mystery and Hysteria. Copernicus Books.
35. https://bit.ly/3vpoz2c
36. https://bit.ly/498CQhC
37. https://bit.ly/3PBajdI
38. Relman, 2024, op cit., p. E1.
39. Relman, 2024, op cit., p. E1.
40. While Relman writes about the plausibility of the possible role of microwave radiation in his commentary, he has not always been so confident. After the National Academies of Sciences report appeared, he was asked by National Public Radio reporter Sarah McCammon, “How confident are you that microwaves are what’s behind these symptoms?” His response: “We were not confident…we didn’t have any direct evidence that this could explain the entire story for sure or even parts of it…[and] we were not familiar with or read into the exact circumstances of these cases, so we couldn’t comment on the situational information that might have either supported or refuted this idea.” See: https://bit.ly/3x7kTma
41. Myles, R., moderator (2024). “NIH Telebriefing on Publication of Study Findings on Federal Employees with reported Anomalous Health Incidents (AHIs) in JAMA.” This embargoed media briefing featured Dr. Leighton Chan, Dr. Carlo Pierpaoli, and Dr. Louis French who answered questions from journalists.
42. Myles, 2024, op cit.
43. https://bit.ly/3TNskaW
44. Öhman, L. (2013). All Ears: Adults’ and Children’s Earwitness Testimony. University of Gothenburg.
45. Acoustic Signals and Physiological Effects on U.S. Diplomats in Cuba, November 2018. Declassified U.S. Government study
46. https://bit.ly/3VwwOUC
47. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Unclassified: National Intelligence Council Updated Assessment on Anomalous Health Incidents, 2023.
48. https://bit.ly/3Tp6PvO
49. Acoustic Signals and Physiological Effects on U.S. Diplomats in Cuba, November 2018. Declassified U.S. Government study. An updated analysis with similar results was published on October 16, 2021 and titled, An Analysis of Data and Hypotheses Related to the Embassy Incidents, JSR-21-01, McLean, Virginia, 143 pp.
50. Oppmann, P., and Labott, E. (2017). “U.S. Diplomats, Families in Cuba Targeted Nearly 50 Times by Sonic Attacks, says U.S. Official.” CNN News, September 23.
51. One Embassy staffer told me: “The Embassy was a tightly-knit community with a very active rumor mill; many people were buzzing about the incidents’ and the related ailments starting as far back as December 2016. We knew as far back as March or April [2017] that doctors were comparing the symptoms to Traumatic Brain Injury. We were absolutely primed to know what the symptoms were. Additionally, many of us *were* experiencing headaches, mental fog, irritability, etc. —completely understandable given the high stress environment and the fact that we went asleep every night wondering whether we’d be zapped in our beds, and consequently lay awake for hours at a time, days on end, stretching into weeks and months.”
52. Merchant, 2021, op cit.
53. https://bit.ly/3TNFkNU
54. Baloh and Bartholomew (2020). pp. 29—37. These are highly respected journalists and Golden has won two Pulitzer Prizes for his reporting prowess.
55. The NIH study found that the first reported AHI occurred in 2015. All previous investigations had placed the date as late 2016. But this does not mean we should push back the start of ‘Havana Syndrome’ to 2015. Once American staff were interviewed about their AHIs, they would have been asked to recount any unusual health incidents or sounds that they experienced since arriving in Havana. As the U.S. Embassy was reopened under Obama in 2015, it is conceivable that any mysterious sounds or health complaints that were recalled during this period, could have easily been relabelled after the fact as an incident or ‘attack.’ That at least one person reported an AHI in 2015 should receive no great significance.
56. See, for example: https://bit.ly/4aaRIxk; see also, Merchant, 2021, op cit.
57. https://bit.ly/3TP84pv
58. Baloh and Bartholomew (2020). op cit.

When recounting an episode of the children's TV show Pingu, people from Italy made an average of 22 gestures per 100 words, compared with 11 for Swedish people

In a win for planetary scientists, and planetary geologists in particular, it was announced at the recent 55th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (LPSC) in Texas earlier this month that NASA’s VERITAS mission to the planet Venus has been reinstated into NASA’s Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) budget with a scheduled launch date of 2031, with the unofficial announcement coming on the first day of the conference, March 11, 2024, and being officially announced just a few days later. This comes after VERITAS experienced a “soft cancellation” in March of last year when NASA revealed its FY24 budget, providing VERITAS only $1.5 million, which was preceded by the launch of VERITAS being delayed a minimum of three years due to findings from an independent review board in November 2022.

VERITAS is back in the budget!! ??? The project will get going full swing this fall (FY25). We’re looking at a 31 launch (TBC). Thanks to everyone who’s supported our return to Venus!! It’s going to be fabulous ?

— Sue Smrekar (@SueSmrekar) March 11, 2024 Dr. Sue Smrekar, who is the Principal Investigator for the VERITAS mission, announcing during LPSC 2024 that VERITAS has been reinstated.

Here, Universe Today speaks with Dr. Paul Byrne, who is an Associate Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, and a huge proponent of exploring Venus, about his thoughts on VERITAS being reinstated, the alleged events that led to VERITAS’ reinstatement, his experience between VERITAS being postponed to now, and his thoughts on what science VERITAS hopes to accomplish at Venus. So, what are his thoughts on VERITAS being reinstated?

“First and foremost, it’s relief,” Dr. Byrne tells Universe Today. “Although VERITAS wasn’t cancelled per se, we in the planetary community weren’t sure if or where VERITAS would be reinstated. Although it’s disappointing to have a selected mission be delayed, it’s a very positive sign that VERITAS is back in the budget. Of course, there’s a flip side to this development: the mission’s stablemate, DAVINCI, has itself been delayed. It’s clear that the prevailing budget situation at NASA is very tough right now, and lots of missions are feeling it. Unfortunately, with two Venus missions in the pipeline, the Venus community is feeling this budget toughness most acutely.”

After years of being proposed as a NASA Discovery mission, VERITAS was officially selected in June 2021, along with DAVINCI (previously known as DAVINCI+) to explore the second planet from the Sun like never before. While VERITAS will be tasked with producing new surface maps of Venus, DAVINCI was tasked with conducting atmospheric science, as debate continues over the potential habitability of Venus’ atmosphere. With an initial scheduled launch date between 2028 and 2030, the November 2022 findings pushed this back to 2031, only to result in the “soft cancellation” just months later. With the planetary science community pushing for VERITAS to be reinstated over the last 12 months, what led to VERITAS being reinstated?

“A major part of it was, in my view, strong advocacy not only by the Venus community but by the planetary science community at large,” Dr. Byrne tells Universe Today. “Other advisory groups—volunteer groups charged with collating and representing to NASA the needs of a given portion of the planetary science community—voiced very loud, strong support for VERITAS beyond just the Venus community, in a wonderful example of community-wide support. Groups such as The Planetary Society also lent their voice to supporting VERITAS. That advocacy was noticed by NASA HQ and by Congress, which played no small role in getting VERITAS back into the budget.”

While not officially a member of the VERITAS mission team, Dr. Byrne has a myriad of publications about Venus, including as a co-author on five LPSC 2024 studies that discussed lava flow cooling, Venus’ potential habitability as an analog for other planets, predicting tectonic activity, predicting future volcanic activity, and current active volcanism. Additionally, Dr. Byrne has expressed his continued support via social media for both the second planet from the Sun and the VERITAS and DAVINCI missions throughout their respective journeys, and specifically when they were selected in June 2021. Therefore, what kind of emotional roller coaster has he experienced between VERITAS being canceled and now?

“It’s so hard to see a mission being selected for a science target NASA hasn’t been to in forty years, only for it to be postponed through no fault of the mission team itself,” Dr. Byrne tells Universe Today. “And it’s wonderful that we now know VERITAS will fly, even if it’s later than originally planned. But I’m keenly aware, as someone who’s not a member of the VERITAS team, that the highs and lows I’ve experienced are nothing compared with those of the team itself, who put their heart and soul (and at least three attempts!) to get VERITAS selected. Better late than never, but better on time than late. Still, we make do with the circumstances we face!”

As Dr. Byrne alluded to, the last NASA mission to Venus was the Magellan spacecraft, which was launched on May 4, 1989, from the Space Shuttle Atlantis during the STS-30R mission and arrived at Venus on August 10, 1990. Over the course of the next four years, Magellan used its synthetic aperture radar to map the entire surface of Venus since the extreme thickness of Venus’ clouds prevents direct imaging of the surface.

After Magellan’s first imaging cycle that lasted 243 days, it successfully mapped 83.7 percent of Venus’ surface, which increased to 96 percent after its second cycle and completed its mission at 98 percent after its third cycle. As a result, Magellan images identified a myriad of features across the Venusian surface, including volcanic evidence, tectonic activity, lava channels, pancake-shaped domes, and stormy winds across the surface. Therefore, with VERIATS equally tasked with mapping Venus’ surface, what science does VERITAS hope to achieve at Venus?

“VERITAS will carry a radar to Venus to obtain the most comprehensive, accurate, and highest-resolution radar image and topographic data ever acquired for the second planet,” Dr. Byrne tells Universe Today. “VERITAS will also be able to acquire spectral measurements of the surface in the infrared, offering us new insight into the composition of the planet’s surface materials. Moreover, the topographic and geodetic data VERITAS will return will in turn be used to help calibrate data from DAVINCI and the ESA EnVision mission, too.”

What new discoveries will VERITAS make about Venus in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!

As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!

The post NASA’s VERITAS Mission Breathes New Life appeared first on Universe Today.

Researchers have successfully transformed CO2 into methanol by shining sunlight on single atoms of copper deposited on a light-activated material, a discovery that paves the way for creating new green fuels.

If we could detect a clear, unambiguous biosignature on just one of the thousands of exoplanets we know of, it would be a huge, game-changing moment for humanity. But it’s extremely difficult. We simply aren’t in a place where we can be certain that what we’re detecting means what we think or even hope it does.

But what if we looked at many potential worlds at once?

It’s assumptions that plague us. Every chemical we detect in an exoplanet atmosphere, even with the powerful JWST, is accompanied by a set of assumptions. We simply don’t know enough yet for it to be any other way. This puts us in a difficult place, considering the magnitude of the question we’re trying to answer: is there life beyond Earth?

“A fundamental goal of astrobiology is to detect life outside of Earth,” write the authors of a new paper. It’s titled “An Agnostic Biosignature Based on Modeling Panspermia and Terraformation,” and it’s available on the pre-press site arxiv.org. The authors are Harrison B. Smith and Lana Sinapayen. Smith is from the Earth-Life Science Institute at the Tokyo Institute of Technology in Japan, and Sinapayen is from the Sony Computer Science Laboratories in Kyoto, Japan.

The fundamental goal that the pair of authors give voice to is a difficult one to reach. “This proves to be an exceptional challenge outside of our solar system, where strong assumptions must be made about how life would manifest and interact with its planet,” the authors explain. We only know how Earth’s biosphere works, and we’re left to assume what similarities there might be with other planets. We don’t have any consensus about how biospheres might be able to work. We’re not completely ignorant, as chemistry and physics make some things possible and others impossible. But we’re not an authority on biospheres.

Scientists are pretty good at modelling things and trying to generate useful answers, as well as generating relevant questions they might not have thought of without models. In this work, the pair of authors took a different approach to understanding life on other worlds and what effort we can make to detect it.

“Here we explore a model of life spreading between planetary systems via panspermia and terraformation,” the authors write. “Our model shows that as life propagates across the galaxy, correlations emerge between planetary characteristics and location and can function as a population-scale agnostic biosignature.”

The word ‘agnostic’ is key here. It means that they’re aiming to detect a biosignature that’s independent of the assumptions we’re normally saddled with. “This biosignature is agnostic because it is independent of strong assumptions about any particular instantiation of life or planetary characteristic—by focusing on a specific hypothesis of what life may do rather than what life may be,” the authors explain.

This approach is different. They analyze planets by their observed characteristics and then cluster them based on those observations. Then, they examine the spatial extent of the clusters themselves. That leads to a way to prioritize individual planets for their potential to harbour life.

Panspermia and terraforming play key roles. We know that rocks can travel between worlds, and that’s called lithopanspermia. Powerful impacts on Mars lofted rocks into space, some of which eventually fell to Earth. If dormant organisms like spores could survive the journey, it’s at least feasible that life could spread this way.

Panspermia is the idea that life is spread throughout the galaxy, or even the Universe, by asteroids, comets, and even minor planets. Credit: NASA/Jenny Mottor

Terraforming is self-explanatory for the most part. It’s the effort to engineer a world to be more habitable. If there are other technological, space-faring civilizations out there, one useful working assumption is that they’ll eventually terraform other worlds if they last long enough. In any case, even non-technological life can purposefully alter its environment. (Sit and watch beavers sometime.)

The authors make an interesting point regarding panspermia and terraforming. They’re both things that life already does, kind of. “Ultimately, our postulates of panspermia and terraformation are merely well-understood hallmarks of life (proliferation via replication and adaptation with bi-directional environmental feedback), escalated to the planetary scale, and executed on an interstellar scale,” they write.

The authors’ model shows that the way planets are distributed around stars, along with their other characteristics, could be evidence of life without even attempting to detect chemical biosignatures. This is the agnostic part of their work. It’s more powerful than a one-planet-at-a-time struggle to detect biosignatures, as plagued as that effort is by assumptions. Single planets with detected biosignatures can always be explained away by something anomalous. But that’s harder to do in this agnostic method.

“Hypothesizing that life spreads via panspermia and terraformation allows us to search for biosignatures while forgoing any strong assumptions about not only the peculiarities of life (e.g., its metabolism) and planetary habitability (e.g., requiring surface liquid water) but even the potential breadth of structure and chemical complexity underpinning living systems,” the authors explain.

This figure from the study helps illustrate the authors’ work. A shows a target planet selection, where an initial planet and its composition are randomly selected. This planet represents a terraformed parent planet. B shows the simulation run beginning with the initial parent planet, showing how nearby planets will be terraformed to more closely match the parent planet. C shows how each terraformed planet will retain some of its differences, about 10% in the researchers’ model. Image Credit: Smith and Sinapayen, 2024.

We’re accustomed to thinking about specific chemicals, and the types of atmospheres exoplanets have to determine the presence of biosignatures. But that’s not how this works. This model is agnostic, so it’s not really about specific chemical biosignatures. It’s more about the patterns and clusters we could detect in populations of planets that could signal the presence of life via panspermia and terraforming.

Terraformed planets can be identified from their clustering, the authors claim. That’s because when they’re terraformed, the planets need to reflect the originating planet.

This figure from the research shows how simulated terraformed planets would appear clustered on a graph. This is a projection of 3D planet locations in the 2D X-Y plane and the earliest time step where the researchers detect a cluster of planets meeting their selection criteria. True terraformed planets have a blue fill, while planets detected by their selection method have a red outline. Image Credit: Smith and Sinapayen, 2024.

There are obstacles to this method that limit its usefulness and implementation. According to the authors, they need to identify “… specific ways in which better understanding astrophysical and planetary processes would improve our ability to detect life,” the authors write.

But even without more specifics, the method is thought-provoking and creative. In the end, the authors’ model and method lead to a novel way to think about life’s hierarchies and how these hierarchies might be replicated on other planets.

If this method is strengthened and more fully developed, who knows what it might lead to?

The post Life Might Be Difficult to Find on a Single Planet But Obvious Across Many Worlds appeared first on Universe Today.