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We’ve all read the advice, during a meteor shower there is no equipment needed. All you need to do is lay back and wonder at one of the most spectacular sights the universe has to offer. That’s about it though and while you lay back on a lounger and watch it really can be a wonderfully grounding and relaxing experience. Unless you happen to be on National TV and miss a meteor behind your head and just tell the world there’s nothing to see. Not that I’m bitter about that of course!

It’s quite easy to get confused; a meteor is a piece of rock that has fallen through the Earth’s atmosphere and been destroyed on its way down, a meteorite survives the plunge and a meteoroid is a piece of space rock floating through space before it encounters the atmosphere. We can see meteors any night of the year and these are called sporadic meteors however around 20 times a year we can enjoy a burst of meteor activity in events known as meteor showers. There are other showers but these are often faint and barely even noticeable. 

A brilliant Geminid meteor shower photographed from Mt. Balang, China. Credit: NASA/Kevin Wu

Individual meteors are seen as they plummet to Earth. Their passage through the atmosphere causes the gas to heat and emit light which we see as the familiar streak of light. The atmosphere is of great importance to us because it protects us from countless meteoric visitors that would otherwise strike the surface. Instead, only the largest get through but thankfully they are few and far between. Spacecraft and satellites of course orbit above the protective shield of the atmosphere and so are far more susceptible to damage. 

Organisations like NASA take the risk of meteoroid impact very seriously and their greater concern is the sporadic meteors. The showers that we all enjoy only raise the risk for a short time and their characteristics are well understand. This means that their risk profile can be very well calculated with NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office issuing regular forecasts. The real risk though comes from outbursts, one off unexpected meteoroids or from the countless minor showers that are not yet well documented or understood. 

This isn’t just a paper based exercise though. The International Space Station has been in orbit since 1998 and in that time has had to adjust its course numerous times. There have been occasions when the occupants have had to get into an escape module and distance themselves from the Station due to possible meteoroid impact. To date though, there has been no major damage. There are thousands of satellites in orbit to and damage has been sustained by some. 

International Space Station. Credit: NASA

A paper recently published by Althea V. Moorhead and a small multi-discipline team from NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office and the University of Western Ontraio looks at quantifying potentially hazardous meteor showers and looks at existing showers to determine which are high risk and of concern. 

The team conclude that for a shower to be classed as hazardous, the number of meteoroids of a certain mass or larger that impact upon an exposed spacecraft surface in low Earth orbit over a unit of time (known as the meteoroid flux) must raise by 5% over the sporadic rate. This would contribute 105 Joules of energy, sufficient to damage relatively delicate spacecraft components. The team are clear that they do not recommend spacecraft should mitigate for this level but instead, at least highlight for investigations from meteoroid forecast reports. 

Having identified the criteria, the team then assessed 74 of the established 110 meteor showers listed in the IAU Meteor Data Centre catalogue. They found that six showers would meet the criteria for being categorised as hazardous, indeed they exceeded the threshold by a factor of two! The showers of note are the daytime Arietids, Geminids, Perseids, Quadrantids, Southern Delta Aquariids and the daytime Xi Sagittariids. There are a further 11 showers that meet the threshold but do not exceed by a factor of two. 

Clearly as the study shows spacecraft operators need to be very conscious of meteoroid activity not just in their orbital operations but also in design and planning. To those of us on the ground we can still of course, sit back and relax to enjoy the spectacle but it adds an interesting context that, as we step out into the universe, those wonderful showers pose a very real risk to the safety of our explorers. 

Source : The threshold at which a meteor shower becomes hazardous to spacecraft

The post Can Meteor Showers Be Dangerous to Spacecraft? appeared first on Universe Today.

Meanwhile, in Dobrzyn, Hili is a tardy meteorologist:

Hili: The wind caused terrible damage.
A: But that was over two weeks ago.
Hili: But I noticed it first now.

Hili: Wiatr narobił strasznych szkód.
Ja: To już ponad dwa tygodnie temu.
Hili: Ale ja dopiero teraz to zauważyłam.

Does a mythical place where the elephants go to die actually exist?

The Maugean skate (Zearaja maugeana) is only found in one habitat in Australia, which is under threat from human activity. Now the species has been saved from extinction by hatching in captivity

We know that modern humans took one of two routes to first reach Australia, and now an ancient chunk of plant resin has tipped the evidence towards the northern option

New findings document fewer ship tracks, reduced cloud cover, and boosted warming after ship emissions regulations took effect in 2020.

Space exploration has led the world in that wonderful human ability to co-operate, alas history shows we don’t do it quite as much as we should! Recently NASA has put a request out to the wider community for ideas for their VIPER rover which was designed for lunar exploration. The exact purpose of VIPER was to hunt for volatile minerals in the polar regions of the Moon. The big question, will NASA get any takers?

Lunar exploration has really kicked up a gear again in recent years. NASA have developed a new rover known as VIPER standing for Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover. The 430 kilogram vehicle planned to explore the southern polar region on the Moon and had been scheduled for launch toward the end of 2024. The main purpose of VIPER was to try and locate water ice and other resources crucial for human lunar exploration. It has a suite of scientific instruments including a drill and will explore the polar region, mapping volatile elements on route. 

An artist’s concept of the completed design of NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover, or VIPER. VIPER will get a close-up view of the location and concentration of ice and other resources at the Moon’s South Pole, bringing us a significant step closer to NASA’s ultimate goal of a long-term presence on the Moon – making it possible to eventually explore Mars and beyond. Credits: NASA/Daniel Rutter

Discovering the location of water deposits and other volatile, essential substances on the Moon is crucial to future human exploration. Water can not only sustain life through providing drinking water and oxygen through electrolysis but can be separated into hydrogen and oxygen to produce rocket fuel. Suitably located reserves will drive down exploration costs and make long term habitation on the Moon far more sustainable. 

On 17th July however NASA announced its intention to discontinue VIPER and to identify different methods for locating water and other volatiles at the lunar south pole. Claiming budgetary issues, it seemed VIPER was doomed however they are still committing to getting it to the Moon. As part of the announcement NASA requested for interested American companies and institutions to come forward if they would like to use VIPER for lunar exploration. The move supported NASA’s intent to support sustainable lunar exploration for the benefit of all. 

Between 17 July and the 1 August, NASA have been accepting expressions of interest to use the VIPER rover. They now have the challenge of working through the information to see how the interested groups and organisations would use VIPER and how the proposal would come at no cost to the US Government. It is not just American organisations though, NASA are going to be looking at any proposals from international groups to although this will be through a separate channel. 

The window is now closed for accepting proposals and NASA will see just how potential partners will look to achieve NASA science and exploration goals using VIPER. NASA has of course built up technological and science expertise and wants to build upon this with future projects as we further our knowledge of lunar exploration. 

Source : NASA Explores Industry, Partner Interest in Using VIPER Moon Rover

The post NASA is Looking for a Commercial Partner to Save VIPER appeared first on Universe Today.

New research explains the mathematics behind how initial predispositions and additional information affect decision making.

On 19 and 20 August, the JUICE mission will make the first ever attempt to get a gravitational boost from both Earth and the moon on its way to Jupiter

New research shows that programming robots to create their own teams and voluntarily wait for their teammates results in faster task completion, with the potential to improve manufacturing, agriculture and warehouse automation.

New research shows that programming robots to create their own teams and voluntarily wait for their teammates results in faster task completion, with the potential to improve manufacturing, agriculture and warehouse automation.

Common push puppet toys in the shapes of animals and popular figures can move or collapse with the push of a button at the bottom of the toys' base. Now, a team of engineers has created a new class of tunable dynamic material that mimics the inner workings of push puppets, with applications for soft robotics, reconfigurable architectures and space engineering.

Common push puppet toys in the shapes of animals and popular figures can move or collapse with the push of a button at the bottom of the toys' base. Now, a team of engineers has created a new class of tunable dynamic material that mimics the inner workings of push puppets, with applications for soft robotics, reconfigurable architectures and space engineering.

Common push puppet toys in the shapes of animals and popular figures can move or collapse with the push of a button at the bottom of the toys' base. Now, a team of engineers has created a new class of tunable dynamic material that mimics the inner workings of push puppets, with applications for soft robotics, reconfigurable architectures and space engineering.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are entirely controllable through human prompts and lack 'emergent abilities'; that is, the means to form their own insights or conclusions. Increasing model size does not lead LLMs to gain emergent reasoning abilities, meaning they will not develop hazardous abilities and therefore do not pose an existential threat. A new study sheds light on the (until now unexplained) capabilities and shortcomings of LLMs, including the need for carefully engineered prompts to exhibit good performance.

Quakes and meteor impacts on Mars generate seismic waves that can help map the interior. A new study analyzed seismic waves detected by the Insight lander and concludes that 11-20 kilometers beneath the surface, a zone of pores and fractures is filled with liquid water -- more than was thought to fill Mars' surface oceans before they disappeared 3 billion years ago. Though too deep to drill, the reservoir is a possible refuge for life.

If we want to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from food production, we have to make it more efficient as the global population grows – and that isn't happening

Wastewater, which is full of pollutants that contain nitrogen, can be directly fed into a new chemical reactor that converts it into ammonia, with purified water and oxygen as by-products

Nanotubes can serve as biosensors. They change their fluorescence when they bind to certain molecules. Until now, it was unclear why. Researchers have gained new insights into the cause of the fluorescence.

We may be already seeing the makings of next solar cycle, peeking out through the current one.

It’s been a wild ride. Thus far, Solar Cycle Number 25 has been one of the strongest cycles in recent memory, producing several massive sunspot groups. The current large region turned Earthward (Active Region 3780) is now easily visible with eclipse glasses… no magnification needed. Cycle 25 started back in 2019.

Massive sunspot rotates into view. Credit: NASA/SDO A Stormy Year

To be sure, the latest solar cycle will be one for the history books, as it heads towards an active maximum in 2025. But even though Cycle 25 will run out through the remainder of the current decade, there are already signs that Cycle 26 could be beginning, just under the roiling solar surface. A study out of the University of Birmingham recently presented at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomical Meeting in Hull (United Kingdom) shows that key indicators for the start of the next cycle may already be in place.

Numbering the solar cycle under current the convention goes all the way back to the start of Cycle 1 in 1755. The pattern for numbering cycles was started in 1852 by astronomer Rudolf Wolf.

We know that a new solar cycle has formally started when sunspots appear at higher solar latitudes. These also typically have a reversed polarity, versus the previous cycle. These then push down near the solar equator as the cycle progresses. Spot from two cycles can also mix as the transition gets underway.

A large sunspot group from May 2024. Credit: NASA/SDO

Laying out spots from successive cycles versus latitude creates a butterfly diagram that demonstrates this effect, in what’s known as Spörer’s Law.

A butterfly graph (top) showing sunspots versus latitude over time. Credit: NASA/MSFC Peering Inside the Sun

But there’s more to the Sun than meets the eye. As a large ball of hydrogen and helium gas, the Sun does not rotate as a single solid mass. Instead, it rotates faster at the equator (25 days) versus near the poles (34 days). Scientists can probe the solar interior via a method known as solar helioseismology, which looks at waves crossing the solar photosphere in an effort to model the interior.

These internal sound waves form bands in a phenomenon known as solar torsional oscillation. Faster-rotation belts appear as a harbinger of the next cycle. These move along with visible sunspots towards the solar equator as the cycle progresses.

“The indication of Cycle 26 that we see is that the solar rotation has been speeding up at around 50 degrees latitude and now appears to be leveling off,” Rachel Howe (University of Birmingham) told Universe Today. “This forms part of a pattern called the torsional oscillation, where bands of slightly faster and slower rotation emerge at mid-latitudes before the cycle officially starts and move down to lower latitudes, alongside the sunspot activity, as the cycle develops. In earlier cycles we have seen that the faster-rotating band associated with the cycle can be traced back to around the maximum of the previous cycle, and we think we’re seeing the beginning of the pattern again. It will still be several years before we can expect to see sunspots belonging to the new cycle, though!”

A solar cycle map, showing speed and torsional oscillations over time versus latitude for the last three solar cycles… and the start of Solar Cycle 26 (upper right). Credit: Rachel Howe. Monitoring the Sun Around the Clock

The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) makes the science of helioseismology possible. This is a worldwide network that monitors the Sun continuously. In space, the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager aboard the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) compliments this effort. The Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) also plays a key role in this campaign. This effort goes back to 1995, spanning the last three solar cycles.

Big Bear Lake and Solar Observatory, part of the GONG network monitoring the Sun.

This gives researchers a look at the start of the last two solar cycles. It also hints at what might be in store for the start of Solar Cycle 26. “If we can understand how this flow pattern relates to the sunspot cycle, we may be able to do better at predicting how strong the next solar maximum will be and when it will occur,” says Howe.

Sunspots from July 31st, 2024. Credit: Eliot Herman.

Solar Cycle 25 has thus far been extremely active, far beyond expectations. This follows the historic lull that preceded it between Cycles 24 and 25. Observers saw few sunspots during this profound minimum. Still, this fell in line with many predictions made by astronomers who study the Sun, suggesting a stronger than usual cycle on rebound.

Looking Ahead to Cycle 26

“The Sun is always surprising,” says Howe. “Some of the most exciting discoveries recently have come from the spacecraft—Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe—that are flying closer to the Sun than ever before, helping scientists to unravel the connections between what we see on the Sun’s surface and the ‘space weather’ events that affect us on Earth. We’re looking at the surface of the Sun in more detail than ever before, but there’s also a place for long-term studies (which this work is a part of) that follow the large-scale patterns inside the Sun over decades.”

A magnetic view of the Sun, courtesy of SDO. Credit: NASA/SDO

The May 10th solar storm was thus far the most impressive one of the cycle. This storm sent aurora to latitudes far south as Spain and Mexico, areas where aurorae are rarely seen. We were treated to a persistent red glow watching from central Germany, an unforgettable sight.

Solar Cycles and More

Historically, the Wolf Sunspot Number defines the level of solar activity. Astronomers refer to this as the Relative or Zürich Sunspot Number. One 2013 study suggested that the orientation and strength of the heliospheric current sheet is a better indicator of the health of the current solar cycle, rather than the sunspot number.

We usually say it’s an 11-year solar cycle from one minima/maxima to the next… but it’s actually double that length. The Sun’s magnetic field flips every 11-years, returning to the same relative orientation every 22 years.

We see ‘starspot cycles’ on other suns as well. It is also unclear why an 11-year cycle is ‘baked in’ to our Sun. We’re also unsure if this has always been the case throughout its 4.6-billion year life span.

This research provides a great model to test the next solar cycle, as we struggle to understand and live with our tempestuous star.

The post The Next Solar Cycle Has Started… But the Current One Hasn’t Finished Yet appeared first on Universe Today.