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From the Topic Suggestions (Lal Mclennan):

What is the 80/20 theory portrayed in Netflix’s Adolescence?

The 80/20 rule was first posed as a Pareto principle that suggests that approximately 80 per cent of outcomes stem from just 20 per cent of causes. This concept takes its name from Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian economist who noted in 1906 that a mere 20 per cent of Italy’s population owned 80 per cent of the land.
Despite its noble roots, the theory has since been misappropriated by incels.
In these toxic communities, they posit that 80 per cent of women are attracted to only the top 20 per cent of men. https://www.mamamia.com.au/adolescence-netflix-what-is-80-20-theory/

As I like to say, “It’s more of a guideline than a rule.” Actually, I wouldn’t even say that. I think this is just another example of humans imposing simplistic patterns of complex reality. Once you create such a “rule” you can see it in many places, but that is just confirmation bias. I have encountered many similar “rules” (more in the context of a rule of thumb). For example, in medicine we have the “rule of thirds”. Whenever asked a question with three plausible outcomes, a reasonable guess is that each occurs a third of the time. The disease is controlled without medicine one third of the time, with medicine one third, and not controlled one third, etc. No one thinks there is any reality to this – it’s just a trick for guessing when you don’t know the answer. It is, however, often close to the truth, so it’s a good strategy. This is partly because we tend to round off specific numbers to simple fractions, so anything close to 33% can be mentally rounded to roughly a third. This is more akin to a mentalist’s trick than a rule of the universe.

The 80/20 rule is similar. You can take any system with a significant asymmetry of cause and outcome and make it roughly fit the 80/20 rule. Of course you can also do that if the rule were 90/10, or three-quarters/one quarter. Rounding is a great tool of confirmation bias. l

The bottom line is that there is no empirical evidence for the 80/20 rule. It likely is partly derived from the Pareto principle, but some also cite an OKCupid survey (not a scientific study) for support. In this survey they had men and women users of the dating app rate the attractiveness of the opposite sex (they assumed a binary, which is probably appropriate in the context of the app), and also asked them who they would date. Men rated women (this is a 1-5 scale) on a bell curve with the peak at 3. Women rated men with a similar curve but skewed to down with a peak closer to 2. Both sexes preferred partners skewed more attractive than their average ratings. This data is sometimes used to argue that women are harsher in their judgements of men and are only interested in dating the top 20% of men by looks.

Of course, all of the confounding factors with surveys apply to this one. One factor that has been pointed out is that on this app there are many more men than women. This means it is a buyer’s market for women, and the opposite for men. So women can afford to be especially choosey while men cannot, just as a strategy of success on this app. This says nothing about the rest of the world outside this app.

In 2024 71% of midlife adult males were married at least once, with 9% cohabitating. Marriage rates are down but only because people are living together without marrying in higher rates. The divorce rate is also fairly high so there are lots of people “between marriages”. About 54% of men over age 30 are married, with cohabitating at 9% (so let’s call that 2/3). None of this correlates to the 80/20 rule.

None of this data supports the narrative of the incel movement, which is based on the notion that women are especially unfair and harsh in their judgements of men. This leads to a narrative of victimization used to justify misogyny. It is, in my opinion, one example of how counterproductive online subcultures can be. They can reinforce our worst instincts, by isolating people in an information ecosystem that only tolerates moral purity and one perspective. This tends to radicalize members. The incel narrative is also ironic, because the culture itself is somewhat self-fulfilling. The attitudes and behaviors it cultivates are a good way to make oneself unattractive as a potential partner.

This is obviously a complex topic, and I am only scratching the surface.

Finally, I did watch Adolescence. I agree with Lal, it is a great series, masterfully produced. Doing each episode in real time as a single take made it very emotionally raw. It explores a lot of aspects of this phenomenon, social media in general, the challenges of being a youth in today’s culture, and how often the various systems fail. Definitely worth a watch.

 

The post The 80-20 Rule first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.

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