The European Space Agency (ESA) launched its final Vega rocket this week, lofting a Sentinel-2C Earth observation satellite into orbit. This wraps up 12 years of service and 20 successful flights for the venerable Vega. The rocket launched several well-known missions, including LISA Pathfinder (2015), the Earth-observing satellites Proba-V (2013), and Aeolus (2018). ESA will now launch these types of payloads on the new Vega-C rocket, capable of launching heavier payloads at a lower price.
Vega’s final launch was on September 5, 2024 from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana, and ESA said that it was fitting the rocket boosted to orbit one of the Sentinel satellites, as Vega had previously launched Sentinel-2A in 2015 and Sentinel-2B in 2017.
Vega was a smaller but powerful rocket launcher designed to loft smaller science and Earth observation satellites, specializing in launching of satellites into polar orbit. At 30 meters (98 ft) tall the rocket weighs 137 tons on the launch pad. Vega consisted of three solid-propellant powered stages with the a liquid-propellant fourth stage. before the fourth liquid-propellant stage took over to bring satellites to their required orbit. Vega could reach space in just six minutes.
On 13 February 2012, the first Vega lifted off on its maiden flight from Europe’s South American Spaceport in French Guiana and deployed 9 science satellites. Credits: ESA – S. CorvajaVega’s first launch took place in February 2012, conducting a perfectly executed qualification flight to deploy 9 science cubesats into Earth orbit.
On Vega’s second flight in 2013, a secondary payload adapter called Vespa was added. This provided different options for payload ride-sharing where multiple satellites could be launched on one rocket. This flight brought three satellites to orbit — Earth observation satellites, ESA’s Proba-V, Vietnam’s VNREDSat-1A and Estonia’s first satellite, the ESTCube-1 technology demonstrator. All three were released into different orbits and the complex mission required five upper-stage boosts, with the flight lasting about twice as long as its first launch.
Countdown and launch of Vega’s final flight.The most satellites Vega ever launched to orbit was in 2020 when a variant of Vespa was used — called the Small Spacecraft Mission Service — and brought over 50 satellites at once to orbit.
2015 was Vega’s’ busiest year, launching three ESA missions including a reentry demonstrator called IXV that prove the technology to launch a vehicle to space and return it safely to Earth. According to ESA, in less than two hours Vega accelerated IXV to speeds of 27,000 km/h (16,777 mph) at a height of 412 km (250 miles) before the reentry vehicle splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean.
But now ESA is building on Vega’s heritage, and the era of Vega-C has already begun. This new rocket completed its inaugural flight in July of 2022, putting the main payload LARES-2 – a scientific mission of the Italian Space Agency ASI – into orbit as well as six research CubeSats from France, Italy and Slovenia. ESA said Vega-C will provide better performance and greater payload capability as it has two new solid propulsion stages, an uprated fourth stage, a newly designed fairing, and new ground infrastructure.
Lift-off of a Vega-C rocket, with the Lares-2 mission plus rideshares. Credit: ESAThe post The Final Vega Rocket Blasts Off appeared first on Universe Today.
Jupiter’s moon, Ganymede, is a fascinating celestial body. Measuring 2,634 km (1,636 mi) in diameter, it is also the largest satellite in the Solar System and even larger than Mercury, which measures 2,440 km (1,516 mi) in diameter. Like Europa, it has an interior ocean and is one of the few bodies in the Solar System (other than the gas giants) with an intrinsic magnetic field. The presence of this field also means Ganymede experiences aurorae circling the regions around its northern and southern poles due to interaction with Jupiter’s magnetic field.
In addition, based on its surface craters, scientists believe that Ganymede experienced a powerful impact with an asteroid about 4 billion years ago. This asteroid was about 20 times larger than the Chicxulub asteroid that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, or the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event (ca. 66 million years ago). According to a recent study by Naoyuki Hirata of Kobe University, this impact occurred almost precisely on the meridian farthest away from Jupiter. This caused a reorientation of Ganymede’s rotational axis and allowed Hirata to determine exactly what type of impact took place.
Naoyuki Hirata is an assistant professor with the Department of Planetology at Kobe University’s Graduate School of Science. His paper, “Giant impact on early Ganymede and its subsequent reorientation,” recently appeared in Science Reports. Since the Pioneer 10 and 11 and the Voyager 1 and 2 probes flew through the Jupiter system in the 1970s, scientists have known that large parts of Ganymede’s surface are covered by furrows that form concentric circles around a single spot. This led researchers in the 1980s to conclude that these were the result of a major impact event.
On large parts of its surface, Ganymede is covered by furrows (right) that form concentric circles around one specific spot (left, red cross). © HIRATA NaoyukiThe exact nature of this impact and its effects on Ganymede has been the subject of debate ever since. As Hirata said in a Kobe University press release:
“The Jupiter moons Io, Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto all have interesting individual characteristics, but the one that caught my attention was these furrows on Ganymede. We know that this feature was created by an asteroid impact about 4 billion years ago, but we were unsure how big this impact was and what effect it had on the moon.”
Using data obtained by the New Horizons mission of Pluto, Hirata drew on similarities with an impact event on Pluto that caused a shift in the (dwarf) planet’s rotational axis. As a specialist who simulates impact events on moons and asteroids, Hirata was able to calculate what kind of impact would have caused Ganymede’s orientation to shift. According to his estimates, the asteroid had a diameter of around 300 km (~186.5 mi) that created a crater measuring between 1,400 and 1,600 km (870 and 995 mi) in diameter before the debris resettled on the surface.
Evidence of this impact is visible today in the center of the furrow system on the anti-Jovian side of Ganymede (the hemisphere facing away from Jupiter) and currently measures roughly 1,000 km (662 mi) in diameter. Looking ahead, Hirata hopes to learn how this impact could have affected the moon’s evolution, particularly where its internal ocean is involved:
“I want to understand the origin and evolution of Ganymede and other Jupiter moons. The giant impact must have had a significant impact on the early evolution of Ganymede, but the thermal and structural effects of the impact on the interior of Ganymede have not yet been investigated at all. I believe that further research applying the internal evolution of ice moons could be carried out next.”
Distribution of furrows and the location of the center of the furrow system shown in the hemisphere that always faces away from Jupiter (top) and the cylindrical projection map of Ganymede (bottom). © HIRATA Naoyuki.The ESA’s JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission is currently en route to Jupiter and will establish orbit around Ganymede by 2034. The observations it makes over the next six months will help shed light on these and other questions regarding Ganymede and its sibling satellites, Europa and Callisto – not the least of which is whether or not these “Ocean Worlds” can support life.
Further Reading: Kobe University, Scientific Reports
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Those of you following the Advanced Composite Solar Sail System may have heard that its booms and sail are now deployed. It is receiving light pressure from the Sun to propel it through the Solar System. Like a test pilot in a new aircraft, NASA are now testing out just how it handles. Before deployment, the spacecraft was slowly tumbling and now the controllers will see if they can get it under control and under sail power. The reflectivity of the sail means its an easy spot in the night sky, just fire up the NASA app to find out where to look.
Solar sails are an ingenious propulsion technique that employs pressure from sunlight to generate low levels of thrust. As the photons of light strike the surface, they transfer momentum to the solar sail and therefore the spacecraft is accelerated. The thrust is small but when applied over long periods of time can provide a very efficient way to propels small spacecraft. The first successful deployment of a sail occurred in 2010 with the IKAROS (Interplanetary Kite-craft Accelerated by Radiation of the Sun) spacecraft launched by the Japanese space agency JAXA.
IKAROS spaceprobe with solar sail in flight (artist’s depiction) showing a typical square sail configuration. Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Andrzej MireckiThe Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACSSS) was developed by NASA to test the technology. The boom that supports the sail is made of lighter and more durable composite materials. By testing the deployment of the booms and efficient sale operation NASA hopes to prove the viability of the technology. The ACSSS uses lighter more flexible materials than previous attempts and will enable more efficient deep space exploration, asteroid rendezvous and other missions requiring low-thrust propulsion.
ACSSS orbits the Earth in a low orbit with an altitude of between 500-600 kilometres. Following launch, it was released purposely without attitude control and was as a result tumbling through space. Once the analysis has been completed, and the boom and sail deployment has been understood the team will re-engage the attitude control to stabilise the spacecraft. The next phase then begins as the team analyse flight handling and dynamics to adjust the spacecrafts orbit.
An artist’s concept of NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System spacecraft in orbit as the Sun crests Earth’s horizon. Credits: NASA/Aero Animation/Ben SchweighartSince the deployment of the sail, the operations team continue to receive images and data to help them understand how the boom technology has deployed. So far so good it seems for demonstrating the deployment and initial operations. The team will continue to monitor and analyse the incoming data and images in preparation for further technology tests and demonstrations in the week ahead.
Any keen eyed sky watchers may be able to spot the spacecraft as it passes overhead. The high reflectivity of the sail will make it clearly visible to the unaided eye. NASA have added a new feature to their app so that users can setup notifications to get alerts when it is visible from their location. NASA is inviting the public to share their pictures of the spacecraft online using the hashtag #SpotTheSail.
Source : NASA Evaluates Deployed Advanced Composite Solar Sail System
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In the 17th century, astronomers Giovanni Domenica Cassini and Christian Huygens noted the presence of hazy white caps while studying the Martian polar regions. These findings confirmed that Mars had ice caps in both polar regions, similar to Earth. By the 18th century, astronomers began to notice how the size of these poles varied depending on where Mars was in its orbital cycle. Along with discovering that Mars’ axis was tilted like Earth’s, astronomers realized that Mars’ polar ice caps underwent seasonal changes, much like Earth’s.
While scientists have been aware that Mars’ polar ice caps change with the seasons, it has only been within the last 50 years that they have realized that they are largely composed of frozen carbon dioxide (aka. “dry ice”) that cycles in and out of the atmosphere – and questions as to how this happens remain. In a recent study, a team of researchers led by the Planetary Science Institute (PSI) synthesized decades of research with more recent observations of the poles. From this, they determined how the Martian poles differ in terms of their seasonal accumulation and release of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The team was led by Dr. Candice Hansen, a Senior Scientist with the Planetary Science Institute (PSI) and a member of the HiRISE imaging team. She was joined by researchers from the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory (LPL) at the University of Arizona, the University of Nevada, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Astrogeology Science Center (USG-ASC), the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at UC Boulder, IUCLA, the Astrophysics Research Centre at Queen’s University Belfast, the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The paper that details their findings recently appeared in the journal Icarus.
Mars’ south polar ice cap imaged by the HRSC camera on the ESA’s Mars Express. Credit: ESA/DLR/FU BerlinFor their study, Hansen and her colleagues relied on data acquired by Mars orbiters over the past few decades. They then compared this with more recent data from the High-Resolution Imaging Experiment (HiRISE) instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This allowed them to track the growth and recession of the Martian ice caps, which cycle about a quarter of the planet’s atmosphere throughout a Martian year. The ultimate purpose was to learn more about the processes that shape the planet’s surface and overall environment. As Hansen summarized in a PSI press release:
“Everybody knows there’s a difference in how carbon dioxide interacts with the poles, but how many people understand why? That was what I was setting out to describe. And fortunately, I have a whole bunch of really talented co-authors who were willing to fill in their own pieces.”
Like Earth, Mars experiences seasonal changes due to its axial tilt, about 25 degrees relative to the orbital plane, compared to Earth’s tilt of about 23.5 degrees. But since Mars has a much longer orbital period (~687 days), the seasons last about twice as long as they do here on Earth. In addition, Mars has a greater orbital eccentricity – about 9% compared to 1.7% – which means its orbit is more elliptical. Because of this, Mars is farthest from the Sun when its northern hemisphere experiences Spring and Summer, while the south experiences Fall and Winter.
This means that summer in the southern hemisphere is shorter (while winter is longer in the north), coinciding with the dust storm season. As a result, the northern polar seasonal cap contains a higher concentration of dust than the south polar cap. “So ultimately, southern fall and winter bring the most freezing and lowest atmospheric pressure since so much of the atmosphere is frozen as dry ice,” said Hansen. “These are the major drivers of differences in seasonal behavior of carbon dioxide between the hemispheres. They’re not symmetric seasons.”
Mars’ Barchan Dunes, captured by the MRO’s HiRISE Camera. Credit: NASA/ HiRISE/MRO/LPL (UofA)There are also significant differences in terms of elevation between the northern and southern hemispheres—i.e., the Northern Lowlands and Southern Highlands. Differences between the northern and southern polar terrain also influence seasonal change. For example, black dust fans are distributed across the southern landscape, resulting from dry ice sublimating and causing dust plumes. As Hansen explained:
“A layer of carbon dioxide ice builds in the southern hemisphere fall, and over the course of the winter, it thickens and it becomes translucent. Then in the spring, the sun comes up, and light penetrates this ice layer to the bottom enough that it warms up the ground underneath. Now, gas is trapped under pressure. It’s going to look for any weak spot in the ice and rupture like a champagne cork.”
Once the gas finds a weak spot and ruptures the ice, it blows dark plumes of dust into the atmosphere. The dust is blown in different directions depending on the wind direction and lands in fan-shaped deposits. This process shapes the landscape by creating gully channels, colloquially called “spiders” (araneiforms) because of their arachnid-like appearance. While the northern hemisphere also experiences dust plums in the Spring, the relatively flat terrain causes them to form dune-like features. Said Hansen:
“When the Sun comes up and begins to sublimate the bottom of the ice layer, there are three weak spots – one at the crest of the dune, one at the bottom of the dune where it meets the surface and then the ice itself can crack along the slope. No araneiform terrain has been detected in the north because although shallow furrows develop, the wind smooths the sand on the dunes.”
These findings demonstrate that Mars is an active place, not only over the course of eons but on a seasonal and even daily basis.
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Archaeology is the study of human prehistory, so it seems incongruous to use its methods to study how humans behave in space. But that’s what astronauts aboard the International Space Station are doing.
When the ISS was designed, it was built around specific tasks and needs. Living areas like latrines, exercise spaces, and food preparation and eating spaces are designed to make the space station an effective and agreeable place to work and live. But it’s impossible to get these things right in any kind of facility. The people who end up working and living on the ISS find their own ways to use the spaces, which might not align with the intended purpose.
In an effort to understand how astronauts really use the spaces on the ISS, astronauts adapted methods used in archaeology. A team led by Justin Walsh of Chapman University in California had astronauts on the ISS take daily photos to see how different areas on the station are really used. They published their results in research titled “Archaeology in space: The Sampling Quadrangle Assemblages Research Experiment (SQuARE) on the International Space Station. Report 1: Squares 03 and 05” in the journal PLOS One.
SQuARE is part of the International Space Station Archaeological Project (ISSAP.)
“ISSAP aims to fill a gap in social science investigation into the human experience of long-duration spaceflight. As the largest, most intensively inhabited space station to date, with over 270 visitors from 23 countries during more than 23 years of continuous habitation, the International Space Station (ISS) is the ideal example of a new kind of spacefaring community—”a micro-society in a mini-world,” the authors explain.
“Our primary goal is to identify how humans adapt to life in a new environment for which our species has not evolved, one characterized by isolation, confinement, and especially microgravity,” the researchers write. The microgravity is especially interesting. Its benefits are the ability to work and move in 360 degrees and to do experiments that are impossible on Earth. The downside is that anything unrestrained simply floats away.
According to the authors, this is the first time archaeological fieldwork has been used in space. SQuARE had four goals:
SQuARE adapted a method archaeologists use to study archaeological sites called the shovel test pit. Shovel test pits are shallow pits excavated in a grid overlain a site to see what artifacts might be underground. They’re used in the first phase of an archaeological study and help scientists determine where to dig deeper in subsequent phases.
Obviously, nobody’s digging actual holes into the space station. Instead of holes, the ISS crew took pictures of six locations on the ISS every day for 60 days—between January and March 2022—to determine how they were being used. These images go beyond interviewing astronauts to see how they adapt to such an unusual working/living situation. The human mind being what it is, interviews can leave out details that might seem irrelevant but are actually revealing.
The research article in PLOS One concerns two of the six areas: the latrine/exercise equipment area and the maintenance area.
This cutaway image of the International Space Station’s US Orbital Segment shows the locations of Square 03 (at upper center, in yellow) and 05 (at lower right, in orange). Square 03 is the maintenance area, and Square 05 is the latrine/exercise area. Image Credit: Walsh et al. 2024.“Using the photographs and an innovative web tool, we identified 5,438 instances of items, labelling them by type and function,” the authors explain in their research article. The ‘artifacts’ in the images included Post-It notes, writing tools, and an augmented reality headset. The research also includes astronaut activity reports which allowed for chronological cross-referencing.
This image shows Square 03 in the starboard Maintenance Work Area of the International Space Station. An open crew berth is on the right. The researchers developed an image analysis platform to process the images and identify artifacts. Image Credit: Walsh et al. 2024.The results show that an area near the latrine/exercise space without a designated purpose was used to store toiletries, resealable bags, and a seldom-used computer. The maintenance area was repurposed. No maintenance was done there, and the space was mostly used for storage.
This image shows Square 05, the latrine/exercise area. The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device is at the far upper right on the overhead wall. The Treadmill with Vibration Isolation Stabilization System is outside of the image on the left. The Waste and Hygiene Compartment is directly behind the photographer. Image Credit: Walsh et al. 2024.“One of the project goals is understanding cultural adaptations to the microgravity environment,” the authors explain in their research. They were especially interested in what they call ‘gravity surrogates,’ simple items used to keep things in their place. On Earth, we can just set a pen down on our desk, and it stays there until we need it again. But in microgravity, astronauts have to adapt.
The image of Square 05 shows an example of how astronauts adapt to their surroundings in unforeseen ways. The blue bar is a metal handrail used to help astronauts move around the ISS, but as NASA acknowledges, “they also serve as convenient locations for temporary mounting, affixing, or restraint of loose equipment and as attachment points for equipment.” The blue bar is just one of many examples of things with other uses serving as restraints in microgravity.
This figure from the research shows the number and type of artifacts in square 03. Restraints are the most plentiful objects. Image Credit: Walsh et al. 2024.SQuARE shows how spaces get used in unintended ways. Square 03 was intended for maintenance work but is used differently. “But much of the time, there was nobody working here—a fact that is not captured by historic photos of the area precisely because nothing is happening,” the authors explain.
Instead it’s used as a pegboard, like one mounted on a wall in a home. It’s a convenient place to store all types of items, some of which aren’t even used in the space because there are so many attachment points.
The authors say that their work provides “insights into material culture,” and that their results can be used in future spacecraft design. They can also help them study the rest of the squares more effectively.
“The experiment is the first archaeology ever to happen off of the planet Earth. By applying a very traditional method for sampling a site to a completely new kind of archaeological context, we show how the ISS crew uses different areas of the space station in ways that diverge from designs and mission plans. Architects and planners of future space stations can learn valuable lessons from this work,” the researchers conclude.
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As the Washington Post and other sources report, the U.S. has charged six Hamas officials with criminal counts of terrorism connected with the October 7 attack on Israel:
U.S. officials unsealed charges Tuesday against senior Hamas leaders, accusing them of conspiring to provide material support to a terrorist organization, conspiring to murder Americans and conspiring to use weapons of mass destruction.
The criminal complaint against Hamas leader Yehiya Sinwar and others was made public as U.S. diplomats are preparing to present Israel and Hamas with a final hostage-release and cease-fire proposal, potentially as soon as this week.
Bizarrely, at least three of these officials are dead. Another, Yahya Sinwar, the military head of Hamas, is scuttling around the tunnels of Gaza and is, at present, beyond reach. But at least one person, the political head of Hamas, and who lives in Doha, Qatar, is within the reach of U.S. courts. Here’s the list of those indicted, taken from the Times of Israel.Notes are mine except for those in quotes.
Yahya Sinwar, the military head of Hamas. Scuttling around the tunnels under Gaza. Sinwar served 22 years in an Israeli prison for terrorism until he was released in a prisoner swap and went on to plan the October 7 massacre (remember that when you start approving of such swaps to get the hostages back). One of the ironic things about Sinwar is that Israeli doctors saved his life by removing a malignant brain tumor when he was in prison, and he not only didn’t give up his hatred of Israel and Jews, but the nephew of the main doctor who saved him was killed in the October 7 massacre.
Ismail Haniyeh, former political head of Hamas who lived in Qatar but was assassinated (almost surely by Israel) by a bomb planted in his room during a visit to Tehran last July.
Marwan Issa, “the once-deputy leader of Hamas’s armed wing in Gaza, who was killed by Israel in March.”
Khaled Mashaal, “a Haniyeh deputy based in Doha and a former [political] leader of the group.” Now that Haniyeh is dead, Sinwar has taken over political and military control of Hamas, but Mashaal is playing a very important role in the group, not to mention all the money that Hamas has in the hands of its members in Qatar. Mashaal recently called for a return of Palestinians to conducting suicide attacks on Israelis.
Muhammad Deif, the longtime Hamas military wing chief, who Israel killed in July. Wikipedia says it’s not sure he’s dead, though was crippled after several assassination attempts, but the IDF says it’s sure he’s dead, and on matters like this I trust the IDF more than Wikipedia.
Ali Baraka, “the Beirut-based head of Hamas’s external relations.”
Now I don’t know what the point of indicting three dead people is; if anything, it’s a purely symbolic gesture. The most likely explanation is that the indictment was issued in February and was just unsealed, and the three dead thugs were still alive in February.
But anybody indicted who is still alive and resides in Qatar can be subject to extradition, and that means Mashaal. The U.S. should ask for his extradition immediately, though given who’s in charge of America now, I doubt this will happen.
Which brings us to the Gaza “peace plan”. The U.S. is saying that it’s about to float a “take-it-or-leave-it” peace deal for Gaza, and although the details are hazy, it seems to involve a time-limited ceasefire in hopes of a permanent one, a swap of some of the living and dead hostages (not all at once) for a pile of live Palestinians imprisoned in Israel, and nothing about the surrender of Hamas.
This is a plan that will fail, and it’s also short-sighted. It will leave Hamas in power and will not end anti-Israel terrorism. If you want a good explication of its problems, read Bret Stephens’s column in the NYT yesterday, “A hostage deal is a poison pill for Israel” (link is archived).
Like me, Stephens is no fan of Netanyahu, but he thinks that the PM is right in his strategy about the war (read the column). Stephens has always been the most sensible NYT op-ed writer about the war: far more cogent than, for example, Tom “I Know Nothing” Friedman. Stephens’s column, which once again I recommend, ends this way:
There are bright people who say that what Israel ought to do now is cut a deal, recover its hostages, take a breather and start preparing for the next war, probably in Lebanon. Israelis should remember that wars will be worse, and come more often, to those who fail to win them.
Here’s my own recommendations for ending the war. They may not work, but they seem sensible, and most of them are based on Malgorzata’s ideas:
a.) Call for the extradition of Mashaal now.
b.) Qatar should arrest all Hamas members finding refuge in that country and freeze their bank accounts (there are billions of dollars there, most of the money in the hands of Hamas). That money should be used to rebuild Gaza.
c.) The first two points should be done under a U.S. threat: do these things or face the removal of the U.S. military presence in Qatar (its base is shared with the RAF, so the UK would have to agree as well). We don’t need the base that badly (we have other bases in other Middle East nations), but Qatar desperately needs it, for without it, oil-rich Qatar will be taken over by countries like the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.(Qatar has almost no military of its own.) This would be a threat with real teeth. And the U.S. should be ready to follow through with it, as with all meaningful threats.
d.) Instead of confecting unworkable and, frankly, stupid peace plans, the U.S. should simply call for the unconditional surrender of Hamas and the instantaneous release of all the hostages. Hamas will not surrender, of course, but anybody who values their life (and yes, there’s a rub there) must realize that Israel under Netanyahu has vowed to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas—and will do so. The Biden Administration (and Harris, should she win) should be giving nothing to terrorists like Hamas.
The moral right in this conflict lies with Israel, not with Hamas, and the U.S. should be calling for the terrorists to give up, end the war, and release the hostages. Remember again that the “take-it-or-leave-it” deal will not work and gives plenty of stuff to Hamas.
Needless to say, the U.S. should not be cutting aid to Israel, even though some European countries are. Such cuts are again ludicrous and short-sighted given Israel’s care to kill as few Gazan civilians as possible combined with Hamas’s desire to get as many non-combatant Gazan civilians killed as possible to excite the world’s opprobrium against Israel. Right now, Europe, and to some extent the U.S., is doing pretty much what Hamas wants.
e.) What about the day after? A two-state solution is not in the offing right now; that much is clear and amounts to rewarding Hamas for the October 7 attack. I suspect that a military occupation of Gaza will have to occur for some time, as happened in Germany and Japan after World War II. At the same time, Israel and its allies should be grooming reasonable and peaceful Palestinians to take over running Gaza. (I’m not discussing the West Bank here.)
Yes, yes, I know all the weaknesses of this plan: Hamas won’t give up, the U.S. won’t threaten to dismantle a military base, no credible Palestinians who don’t want to destroy Israel will be found, etc. etc. If you want to pick at the plan, at least do something constructive and propose a better one, and one that doesn’t lead to Israel losing the war and facing many more October-7-like episodes.
But one thing is certain, something Bret Stephens encapsulates in his last sentence: all the “cease fire” proposals floating around now are guaranteed to leave Hamas in power, and thus to keep a constant threat of terrorism against Israel. And that means that peace will never be attained.