2ND UPDATE: Auroras are indeed being observed. (I myself am a bit too far south and skies are hazy, making the moonlight blinding; but I am reading reports from northern Europe.)
UPDATE: Something has happened at the ACE satellite around 2300 UTC (0100 Europe time, 7 pm New York time. See the plot added to the bottom of this post.
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Still waiting for a possible outbreak of auroras (northern/southern lights) tonight; a tremendous blast from the Sun, launched from a sunspot two days ago, is believed likely to make a glancing impact on the Earth, and to do so within the next 12 hours or so. That means a possibility of bright northern lights tonight if you’re north of, say, New York City’s latitude.
BUT always keep in mind that forecasting auroras is part science, part art, part luck. Our chances are decent, but the forecast can always be wrong.
As far as timing, the best way to monitor what’s going on, I’ve found, is to use https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind and look for sudden activity in multiple data channels. If that happens, then the ACE satellite (about a million miles away) has detected a sudden change in the solar wind, and a geomagnetic storm is likely to start at Earth within an hour or so.
Whether you will see auroras or not during the storm depends on how powerful it is, which determines how far from the poles the auroras will reach and how bright they will be. While the forecast is for a strong storm, we’ll just have to see…
At 2300 UTC (about one hour before this posting) you can see jumps occurred in many channels below. That means that the solar storm may begin right around now (0000 UTC, 8 pm New York Time)
When I counted nine schools in North America (Simon Fraser in Canada was included) that adhered to Chicago-like principles of institutional neutrality, I sent an email to FIRE and said they should compile a list, similar to the list of 110 schools that adhere to Chicago’s free speech principles.
Well, is my face red! FIRE wrote me that they’ve already done that, and you can see that there are a lot more schools than just nine. Click below to see the list, which I’ll reproduce:
Here’s the list for the U.S.: there aren’t just eight schools, but 22. Each school was linked to its statement:
You can read FIRE’s own endorsement of institutional neutrality, and the reason this policy is important, by clicking the title below:
Mission concepts to the outer solar system are relatively common, as planetary scientists are increasingly frustrated by our lack of knowledge of the farthest planets. Neptune, the farthest known planet, was last visited by Voyager 2 in the 1980s. Technologies have advanced a lot since that probe was launched in 1977. But to utilize that better technology, we first need to have a mission arrive in the system – and one such mission is being developed over a series of papers by ConEx Research and University College London.
The Arcanum mission is designed to orbit Neptune and land on Triton, giving insight into both objects of interest in the system. Neptune has some of the highest winds in the solar system and the “Great Dark Spot” storm system. Triton is even more interesting, with potential active volcanism and possibly a subsurface ocean.
Given the different requirements to study both the planet and moon, Arcanum is split into three distinct parts – an orbiter, an “orbital maneuverer,” and a lander. Let’s take a look at each one in turn.
Video describing the Arcanum mission concept.Somerville is the orbiter’s name, and its primary function is to provide a scientific platform from which to study Neptune. But it will also serve as a communications relay for the lander system, which it will be joined to for most of its voyage to the outer solar system.
The payload includes several cameras, a few spectrometers, a magnetometer, and some other scientific equipment, but most importantly, it will contain a telescope. The telescope will operate in the visible and infrared spectrum, allowing the orbiter to both look at the Neptunian system and search objects farther afield, such as those in the Kuiper Belt.
The system that enables the orbital maneuvering of the lander is known as Tenzing. It will operate in two stages – first after it separates from Somerville and second after the lander disconnects. During its first phase, its purpose is to position the lander accurately for a touchdown on Triton, using its fuel reserves and providing a power top-up to the lander itself. During its second phase, it acts as an orbiting observer and relay station, interfacing communications from the lander to Somerville, which has a much stronger antenna.
Stackup of the Arcanum mission systems, including descriptions of many subcomponents.Tenzing also has a series of three “penetrators” that will attempt to break through the outer ice shell on Triton, allowing for scientific study of the world’s interior. It’s unclear whether the system designers plan to penetrate the crust entirely to get to a potential undersea ocean,
The lander itself is called Bingham and consists of its own engines, landing pads, and scientific suite. Instruments on board include multiple cameras, a seismometer, a thermometer, and a mass spectrometer. Overall, the instrumentation on the lander would provide a basic understanding of the surface conditions on Triton, though it wouldn’t necessarily be able to dig into the most interesting parts of the moon on its own.
Trident is another mission under consideration for a trip to Neptune, as Fraser explains.All these systems wouldn’t be possible without Starship’s improved launch capability, which is expected to have at least an order of magnitude more carrying capacity to a transfer orbit than many existing commercial rocket solutions. Bingham and Tenzing alone have a “wet” mass (i.e., with propellant) of 550 kg, putting it in a much heavier category than other outer solar system missions. With an expected launch date of 2030 and an expected arrival at Neptune in 2045, there will be plenty of time for Starship to get put through its paces before the launch window. But as of now, Arcanum is only one of several proposed solar system missions and has no major space agency backing. It remains to be seen what our next mission to Neptune will look like. However, the pressure to send one will increasingly build until, eventually, one day, humanity returns to this exciting system.
Learn More:
McKevitt et al – Concept of operations for the Neptune system mission Arcanum
UT – The Planet Neptune
UT – Life on Neptune
UT – What Is The Surface of Neptune Like?
Lead Image:
Artist’s depiction of the Arcanum mission.
Credit – McKevitt et al.
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