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Large Language Models (LLMs) are entirely controllable through human prompts and lack 'emergent abilities'; that is, the means to form their own insights or conclusions. Increasing model size does not lead LLMs to gain emergent reasoning abilities, meaning they will not develop hazardous abilities and therefore do not pose an existential threat. A new study sheds light on the (until now unexplained) capabilities and shortcomings of LLMs, including the need for carefully engineered prompts to exhibit good performance.

Quakes and meteor impacts on Mars generate seismic waves that can help map the interior. A new study analyzed seismic waves detected by the Insight lander and concludes that 11-20 kilometers beneath the surface, a zone of pores and fractures is filled with liquid water -- more than was thought to fill Mars' surface oceans before they disappeared 3 billion years ago. Though too deep to drill, the reservoir is a possible refuge for life.

If we want to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from food production, we have to make it more efficient as the global population grows – and that isn't happening

Wastewater, which is full of pollutants that contain nitrogen, can be directly fed into a new chemical reactor that converts it into ammonia, with purified water and oxygen as by-products

Nanotubes can serve as biosensors. They change their fluorescence when they bind to certain molecules. Until now, it was unclear why. Researchers have gained new insights into the cause of the fluorescence.

We may be already seeing the makings of next solar cycle, peeking out through the current one.

It’s been a wild ride. Thus far, Solar Cycle Number 25 has been one of the strongest cycles in recent memory, producing several massive sunspot groups. The current large region turned Earthward (Active Region 3780) is now easily visible with eclipse glasses… no magnification needed. Cycle 25 started back in 2019.

Massive sunspot rotates into view. Credit: NASA/SDO A Stormy Year

To be sure, the latest solar cycle will be one for the history books, as it heads towards an active maximum in 2025. But even though Cycle 25 will run out through the remainder of the current decade, there are already signs that Cycle 26 could be beginning, just under the roiling solar surface. A study out of the University of Birmingham recently presented at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomical Meeting in Hull (United Kingdom) shows that key indicators for the start of the next cycle may already be in place.

Numbering the solar cycle under current the convention goes all the way back to the start of Cycle 1 in 1755. The pattern for numbering cycles was started in 1852 by astronomer Rudolf Wolf.

We know that a new solar cycle has formally started when sunspots appear at higher solar latitudes. These also typically have a reversed polarity, versus the previous cycle. These then push down near the solar equator as the cycle progresses. Spot from two cycles can also mix as the transition gets underway.

A large sunspot group from May 2024. Credit: NASA/SDO

Laying out spots from successive cycles versus latitude creates a butterfly diagram that demonstrates this effect, in what’s known as Spörer’s Law.

A butterfly graph (top) showing sunspots versus latitude over time. Credit: NASA/MSFC Peering Inside the Sun

But there’s more to the Sun than meets the eye. As a large ball of hydrogen and helium gas, the Sun does not rotate as a single solid mass. Instead, it rotates faster at the equator (25 days) versus near the poles (34 days). Scientists can probe the solar interior via a method known as solar helioseismology, which looks at waves crossing the solar photosphere in an effort to model the interior.

These internal sound waves form bands in a phenomenon known as solar torsional oscillation. Faster-rotation belts appear as a harbinger of the next cycle. These move along with visible sunspots towards the solar equator as the cycle progresses.

“The indication of Cycle 26 that we see is that the solar rotation has been speeding up at around 50 degrees latitude and now appears to be leveling off,” Rachel Howe (University of Birmingham) told Universe Today. “This forms part of a pattern called the torsional oscillation, where bands of slightly faster and slower rotation emerge at mid-latitudes before the cycle officially starts and move down to lower latitudes, alongside the sunspot activity, as the cycle develops. In earlier cycles we have seen that the faster-rotating band associated with the cycle can be traced back to around the maximum of the previous cycle, and we think we’re seeing the beginning of the pattern again. It will still be several years before we can expect to see sunspots belonging to the new cycle, though!”

A solar cycle map, showing speed and torsional oscillations over time versus latitude for the last three solar cycles… and the start of Solar Cycle 26 (upper right). Credit: Rachel Howe. Monitoring the Sun Around the Clock

The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) makes the science of helioseismology possible. This is a worldwide network that monitors the Sun continuously. In space, the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager aboard the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) compliments this effort. The Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) also plays a key role in this campaign. This effort goes back to 1995, spanning the last three solar cycles.

Big Bear Lake and Solar Observatory, part of the GONG network monitoring the Sun.

This gives researchers a look at the start of the last two solar cycles. It also hints at what might be in store for the start of Solar Cycle 26. “If we can understand how this flow pattern relates to the sunspot cycle, we may be able to do better at predicting how strong the next solar maximum will be and when it will occur,” says Howe.

Sunspots from July 31st, 2024. Credit: Eliot Herman.

Solar Cycle 25 has thus far been extremely active, far beyond expectations. This follows the historic lull that preceded it between Cycles 24 and 25. Observers saw few sunspots during this profound minimum. Still, this fell in line with many predictions made by astronomers who study the Sun, suggesting a stronger than usual cycle on rebound.

Looking Ahead to Cycle 26

“The Sun is always surprising,” says Howe. “Some of the most exciting discoveries recently have come from the spacecraft—Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe—that are flying closer to the Sun than ever before, helping scientists to unravel the connections between what we see on the Sun’s surface and the ‘space weather’ events that affect us on Earth. We’re looking at the surface of the Sun in more detail than ever before, but there’s also a place for long-term studies (which this work is a part of) that follow the large-scale patterns inside the Sun over decades.”

A magnetic view of the Sun, courtesy of SDO. Credit: NASA/SDO

The May 10th solar storm was thus far the most impressive one of the cycle. This storm sent aurora to latitudes far south as Spain and Mexico, areas where aurorae are rarely seen. We were treated to a persistent red glow watching from central Germany, an unforgettable sight.

Solar Cycles and More

Historically, the Wolf Sunspot Number defines the level of solar activity. Astronomers refer to this as the Relative or Zürich Sunspot Number. One 2013 study suggested that the orientation and strength of the heliospheric current sheet is a better indicator of the health of the current solar cycle, rather than the sunspot number.

We usually say it’s an 11-year solar cycle from one minima/maxima to the next… but it’s actually double that length. The Sun’s magnetic field flips every 11-years, returning to the same relative orientation every 22 years.

We see ‘starspot cycles’ on other suns as well. It is also unclear why an 11-year cycle is ‘baked in’ to our Sun. We’re also unsure if this has always been the case throughout its 4.6-billion year life span.

This research provides a great model to test the next solar cycle, as we struggle to understand and live with our tempestuous star.

The post The Next Solar Cycle Has Started… But the Current One Hasn’t Finished Yet appeared first on Universe Today.

A previously unknown mechanism of active matter self-organization essential for bacterial cell division follows the motto 'dying to align': Misaligned filaments 'die' spontaneously to form a ring structure at the center of the dividing cell. The work could find applications in developing synthetic self-healing materials.

Researchers have introduced a new advancement in the fight against climate change. Their study showcases a novel method for understanding the mechanisms of carbon dioxide re-utilization leading to fuels and chemicals. This work paves the road for the further optimization of this catalytic process driven by renewable electricity.

MRI scans could replace invasive heart tests, as new research shows they can reliably estimate pressures inside the heart to predict if a patient will develop heart failure.

Radiation is a powerful tool for treating cancer, but prolonged exposure can damage the skin. Radiation-induced skin injuries are painful and increase a person's chances of infection and long-term inflammation. Now, researchers report an aspirin-containing hydrogel that mimics the nutrient-rich fluid between cells and accelerates healing of skin damaged by radiation in animals. With further development, the new salve could provide effective and rapid wound healing for humans.

In a new study, researchers created a sort of simulated voting booth -- a space where people, or mathematical 'agents,' with various biases could deliberate over decisions. The results may help to reveal the mathematics of how the human brain acts when it needs to make a choice.

A research team has developed full-color fiber light-emitting diodes utilizing perovskite quantum wires (PeQWs), paving the way for innovative wearable lighting and display devices.

A research team has developed full-color fiber light-emitting diodes utilizing perovskite quantum wires (PeQWs), paving the way for innovative wearable lighting and display devices.

Researchers have published a programmable framework that overcomes a key computational bottleneck of optics-based artificial intelligence systems. In a series of image classification experiments, they used scattered light from a low-power laser to perform accurate, scalable computations using a fraction of the energy of electronics.

Researchers have published a programmable framework that overcomes a key computational bottleneck of optics-based artificial intelligence systems. In a series of image classification experiments, they used scattered light from a low-power laser to perform accurate, scalable computations using a fraction of the energy of electronics.

All living creatures use only the left or right-handed forms of certain molecules, and now we might understand why

Evidence suggests that cynicism is bad for your health. Neuroscientist Jamil Zaki describes the three ways to conquer your inner cynic to boost your well-being

Scientists discovered the Andromeda galaxy, known as M31, hundreds of years ago, and around a century ago, we realized that it had negative radial velocity toward the Milky Way. In other words, eventually, the two galaxies would merge spectacularly. That has been common knowledge for astronomers since then, but is it really true? A new paper from researchers at the University of Helsinki looks at several confounding factors, including the gravitational influence of other galaxies in our local group, and finds only a 50% chance that the Milky Way will merge with the Andromeda galaxy in the next 10 billion years. 

That seems like a pretty big thing to get the physics wrong on. So, how did the authors come to that conclusion? They accounted for a problem that has been popularized in media as of late – the three-body – or in this case, four-body – problem. And with that problem comes a lot of uncertainty, which is why there’s still a 50% chance that this huge event might still happen. 

Thinking of Andromeda and the Milky Way in isolation doesn’t account for the other galaxies in what we know as the “Local Group.” This comprises approximately 100 smaller galaxies at various orientations, distances, and speeds. The largest of the remaining galaxies is the Triangulum galaxy, M33, which is about 2.7 million light-years away and consists of upwards of a mere 40 billion stars. That’s about 40% of the approximately 100 billion stars in the Milky Way but a mere 4% of the nearly 1 trillion stars estimated to exist in Andromeda. Still, they would have their own gravitational pull, contorting the simplistic dynamic between Andromeda and the Milky Way.

Fraser explains some of the orbital mechanics around Andromeda’s motion.

Further confounding that dynamic is the Large Magellanic Cloud, which is either the second or third closest galaxy to our own at a distance of only 163,000 light years. This is slightly larger than the Milky Way’s diameter, at 105,700. It also houses around 20 billion stars, so while it’s even less massive than M33, it still exerts a hefty gravitational pull.

The authors accounted for the gravitational pull of both of those other galaxies in their calculations of the paths of the Milky Way and Andromeda over the next few billion years. They found that the complicated dance of astronomical giants could potentially result in a scenario where the two galaxies don’t merge. However, there was another significant factor in their calculations: uncertainty.

Scientists never like uncertainty. In fact, much of their research tries to place bounds on certain parameters, like the rotational speed of galaxies or the distances between them. Unfortunately, despite their proximity, there are many uncertainties surrounding the four galaxies used in the study, and those uncertainties make precise calculations of the effects of their gravitational and rotational pull difficult.

Fraser discusses what stars, if any, we can see in Andromeda.

Developing estimates rather than concrete numbers is one-way scientists often deal with uncertainty, and in this case, that estimate fell right at the 50% mark in terms of whether or not the two galaxies would collide. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in that estimate, and plenty more confounding factors, including the other galaxies in the local group, will influence the final outcome. Ultimately, time will help solve the mystery, but that is a very long time on the scale of galaxy mergers. If it happens at all, a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda will happen long after our own Sun has burnt out, and humans will either die out with it or find a way to expand to new stars. And if, at that point, we get easy access to an additional galaxy’s worth of resources, it would be all the better for us.

Learn More:
Sawala et al. – Apocalypse When? No Certainty of a Milky Way — Andromeda Collision
UT – Are Andromeda and the Milky Way Already Exchanging Stars?
UT – What a Mess. When the Milky Way and Andromeda Merge, it’ll Look Like This
UT – We Might Be Able to Measure Dark Energy Through the Milky Way’s Collision With Andromeda

Lead Image:
This illustration shows a stage in the predicted merger between our Milky Way galaxy and the neighboring Andromeda galaxy, as it will unfold over the next several billion years. In this image, representing Earth’s night sky in 3.75 billion years, Andromeda (left) fills the field of view and begins to distort the Milky Way with tidal pull.
Credit: NASA; ESA; Z. Levay and R. van der Marel, STScI; T. Hallas; and A. Mellinger

The post Are Andromeda and the Milky Way Doomed to Collide? Maybe Not appeared first on Universe Today.

Today was a special day in Capetown: the day I got to visit the site of Boulders on the coast, one of the few breeding sites of a rare species of penguin that I hadn’t seen before: the African Penguin (Spheniscus demersus), also known as the Cape Penguin.

But before that, let’s not forget a few of the local endemic flowers. First, pincushion (Leucospermum sp.)

An aloe (Aloe), another from the garden here.

A Cape Honeysuckle (Tecomaria capensis).

The lovely house where I’m staying is the one to the left with the shiny roof. It looks out over the Indian Ocean, shortly before it joins the south Atlantic to the west, and yesterday we saw a southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) swimming around right below.

Not far away is the fishing village of Kalk Bay, where ships pull in with a piscine haul, seals bask in the sun, and chippies surround the harbor to feed the catch to hungry visitors.

Here is a warning:

I was duly warned, but couldn’t avoid getting about seven feet away from this sleeping beauty, the African subspecies of the Brown Fur Seal (also called the Cape Fur Seal), Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus. As you see from the figure below, there’s also a subspecies that lives and breeds on the tip of SE Australia.

It’s the world’s largest fur seal. This one was sleeping peacefully on the dock:

A close-up of its adorable face. Don’t you just want to kiss it? But don’t–they bite!

The distribution of the two subspecies of this species. See caption for details and credit.

From Wikipedia: “Distribution of the brown fur seal, dark blue: breeding colonies; light blue: nonbreeding individuals.” Figure by Mirko Thiessen, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

And then. . . on to the penguins!

About the African Penguin. More facts from Wikipedia:

The African penguin is a pursuit diver and feeds primarily on fish and squid. Once extremely numerous, the African penguin is declining rapidly due to a combination of several threats and is classified as endangered. It is a charismatic species and is popular with tourists. Other vernacular names of the species include black-footed penguin and jackass penguin, due to the species’ loud, donkey-like noise (although several related species of South American penguins produce the same sound). They can be found along the coast of South Africa and Namibia.

They have built artificial burrows for the penguins to live and breed in; they look like amphoras cut in half and placed on their side. The explanation for creating these is below:

. . . and, a lovely African penguin. I love its pink eye ring:

A closeup of the face:

A beach full o’ penguins. But Rita, who has been coming here for 20 years or so, says that there used to be four times as many penguins on this beach. A combination of factors, not least among them competition for fish with local fishermen who range widely, has drastically reduced the population size. These wonderful birds are now classified as endangered.

First-year penguins molt their down before they develop their adult feathers (remember this from Antarctica?).  Here are three babies (fed fish by their mom), losing their down.

This chick looks surprised.

And this one looks obstreperious:

A panorama of the beach (click to enlarge):

This penguin carried a stick all the way from the woods above (where the nests are) down into the water. Why? Who knows? Could it be a display?

These penguins have already been fishing and are exiting the water. They swim around a bit in the bay before they come ashore.

These are the artificial penguin nests; they’re in thick shrubbery up above the beach.

Me and my penguin (photo by Rita):

And with more penguins (also by Rita):

There was a shop full of penguin paraphrenalia, but I already have too many penguin-related items and forced myself not to buy anything. But I did admire this penguin made out of discarded plastic utensils and cup lids.

Don’t mess with the penguins!

These next two signs suggest to me (I’m a worrier) that some hapless motorist squashed a penguin at least once in the past.

Check your car! (Photo by Rita.)

In the vegetation near the penguins I saw a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis), locally called the “dassie”.  They are herbivores and are found widely throughout Africa.  Surprisingly, despite its small size it is the land mammal most closely related to the elephant, though whether manatees and dugongs are more closely related to elephants is undecided.

A female chacma baboon (Papio ursinus), hanging around the garbage bins in town. Don’t mess with these primates!

A quick trip to the grocery store, which happens to be Woolworth’s, said to have the best produce in this area.  Ground ostrich meat and extra lean venison (which is a synonym here for antelope) were both purchased for the next two dinners.

Ingredients: “Gemsbock and/or Wildebeest and/or Kudu and/or Hartebeest and/or Eland and/or Impala and/or Springbok and/or Blezbok”—all antelopes. You never know what you bought!

And I took the gang out for fish and chips at Kalky’s in the harbor, a downmarket local favorite. The entrance:

The menu. Remember that one rand is about 6¢ US, so my hake and chips meal, which was quite good, cost about six bucks:

The line, which got quite long, and in front of that the dining room. You pay (cash only) and pick up your order when it’s called.

You would never have gotten a crowd this mixed in the bad old days of apartheid, when people were strictly segregated into four classes: black, white, Indian, and colored (mixtures of black and white). Curiously, Chinese were lumped with the most oppressed class, blacks, while Japanese counted as white.

Hake ‘n’ chips: very good!

Red-winged starling (Onychognathus morio), a species found in East Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. The underside of its wings are red, but you can’t see that in this photo.

Today: a visit to the Cape Peninsula.

Meanwhile, in Dobrzyn, Hili is on the look-out for her arch-enemies:

A: Where are you going?
Hili: To check whether the hazelnuts are ripe.
A: Why?
Hili: Because when they are squirrels are sometimes coming.

Ja: Gdzie idziesz?
Hili: Sprawdzić, czy orzechy laskowe już dojrzały.
Ja:Czemu?
Hili: Bo wtedy czasem przychodzą do nas wiewiórki.