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2ND UPDATE: Auroras are indeed being observed. (I myself am a bit too far south and skies are hazy, making the moonlight blinding; but I am reading reports from northern Europe.)

UPDATE: Something has happened at the ACE satellite around 2300 UTC (0100 Europe time, 7 pm New York time. See the plot added to the bottom of this post.

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Still waiting for a possible outbreak of auroras (northern/southern lights) tonight; a tremendous blast from the Sun, launched from a sunspot two days ago, is believed likely to make a glancing impact on the Earth, and to do so within the next 12 hours or so. That means a possibility of bright northern lights tonight if you’re north of, say, New York City’s latitude.

BUT always keep in mind that forecasting auroras is part science, part art, part luck. Our chances are decent, but the forecast can always be wrong.

As far as timing, the best way to monitor what’s going on, I’ve found, is to use https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind and look for sudden activity in multiple data channels. If that happens, then the ACE satellite (about a million miles away) has detected a sudden change in the solar wind, and a geomagnetic storm is likely to start at Earth within an hour or so.

Whether you will see auroras or not during the storm depends on how powerful it is, which determines how far from the poles the auroras will reach and how bright they will be. While the forecast is for a strong storm, we’ll just have to see…

At 2300 UTC (about one hour before this posting) you can see jumps occurred in many channels below. That means that the solar storm may begin right around now (0000 UTC, 8 pm New York Time)

When I counted nine schools in North America (Simon Fraser in Canada was included) that adhered to Chicago-like principles of institutional neutrality, I sent an email to FIRE and said they should compile a list, similar to the list of 110 schools that adhere to Chicago’s free speech principles.

Well, is my face red!  FIRE wrote me that they’ve already done that, and you can see that there are a lot more schools than just nine. Click below to see the list, which I’ll reproduce:

Here’s the list for the U.S.: there aren’t just eight schools, but 22. Each school was linked to its statement:

1. Claremont McKenna College

2. University of North Carolina System

3. Vanderbilt University

4. University of Wyoming

5. Columbia University

6. Utah State University

7. College of the Holy Cross

8. Harvard University

9. Syracuse University

10. Stanford University

11. Purdue University

12. Clark University

13. Johns Hopkins University

14. Emerson College

15. University of Southern California

16. University of Texas System

17. University of Colorado Boulder

18. University of Alabama System

19. Washington State University

20. University of Pennsylvania

21. University of Wisconsin System

22. University of Virginia

You can read FIRE’s own endorsement of institutional neutrality, and the reason this policy is important, by clicking the title below:

Mission concepts to the outer solar system are relatively common, as planetary scientists are increasingly frustrated by our lack of knowledge of the farthest planets. Neptune, the farthest known planet, was last visited by Voyager 2 in the 1980s. Technologies have advanced a lot since that probe was launched in 1977. But to utilize that better technology, we first need to have a mission arrive in the system – and one such mission is being developed over a series of papers by ConEx Research and University College London.

The Arcanum mission is designed to orbit Neptune and land on Triton, giving insight into both objects of interest in the system. Neptune has some of the highest winds in the solar system and the “Great Dark Spot” storm system. Triton is even more interesting, with potential active volcanism and possibly a subsurface ocean.

Given the different requirements to study both the planet and moon, Arcanum is split into three distinct parts – an orbiter, an “orbital maneuverer,” and a lander. Let’s take a look at each one in turn.

Video describing the Arcanum mission concept.
Credit – Conex Research YouTube Channel

Somerville is the orbiter’s name, and its primary function is to provide a scientific platform from which to study Neptune. But it will also serve as a communications relay for the lander system, which it will be joined to for most of its voyage to the outer solar system. 

The payload includes several cameras, a few spectrometers, a magnetometer, and some other scientific equipment, but most importantly, it will contain a telescope. The telescope will operate in the visible and infrared spectrum, allowing the orbiter to both look at the Neptunian system and search objects farther afield, such as those in the Kuiper Belt. 

The system that enables the orbital maneuvering of the lander is known as Tenzing. It will operate in two stages – first after it separates from Somerville and second after the lander disconnects. During its first phase, its purpose is to position the lander accurately for a touchdown on Triton, using its fuel reserves and providing a power top-up to the lander itself. During its second phase, it acts as an orbiting observer and relay station, interfacing communications from the lander to Somerville, which has a much stronger antenna.

Stackup of the Arcanum mission systems, including descriptions of many subcomponents.
Credit – McKevitt et al.

Tenzing also has a series of three “penetrators” that will attempt to break through the outer ice shell on Triton, allowing for scientific study of the world’s interior. It’s unclear whether the system designers plan to penetrate the crust entirely to get to a potential undersea ocean, 

The lander itself is called Bingham and consists of its own engines, landing pads, and scientific suite. Instruments on board include multiple cameras, a seismometer, a thermometer, and a mass spectrometer. Overall, the instrumentation on the lander would provide a basic understanding of the surface conditions on Triton, though it wouldn’t necessarily be able to dig into the most interesting parts of the moon on its own.

Trident is another mission under consideration for a trip to Neptune, as Fraser explains.

All these systems wouldn’t be possible without Starship’s improved launch capability, which is expected to have at least an order of magnitude more carrying capacity to a transfer orbit than many existing commercial rocket solutions. Bingham and Tenzing alone have a “wet” mass (i.e., with propellant) of 550 kg, putting it in a much heavier category than other outer solar system missions. With an expected launch date of 2030 and an expected arrival at Neptune in 2045, there will be plenty of time for Starship to get put through its paces before the launch window. But as of now, Arcanum is only one of several proposed solar system missions and has no major space agency backing. It remains to be seen what our next mission to Neptune will look like. However, the pressure to send one will increasingly build until, eventually, one day, humanity returns to this exciting system.

Learn More:
McKevitt et al – Concept of operations for the Neptune system mission Arcanum
UT – The Planet Neptune
UT – Life on Neptune
UT – What Is The Surface of Neptune Like?

Lead Image:
Artist’s depiction of the Arcanum mission.
Credit – McKevitt et al.

The post An Ambitious Mission to Neptune Could Study Both the Planet and Triton appeared first on Universe Today.

A woman's brain was scanned throughout her pregnancy, adding to the growing body of evidence that dramatic remodelling takes place in preparation for motherhood

A chemical reaction that recycles carbon dioxide into fresh oxygen could provide more sustainable life support for astronauts on the moon or Mars – and as a bonus, it also produces carbon nanotubes

Loneliness was long thought to cause health conditions ranging from diabetes to cardiovascular disease, but new research paints a more nuanced picture

Artificial intelligence has more in common with ants than humans, says Neil Lawrence. Only by taking a more nuanced view of intelligence can we see how machines will truly transform society

Using piezoelectricity, an engineering team developed wearable sensors to examine eye movement to assess brain disorders or damage to the brain.

A new study allays fears that rerouting flights to avoid forming climate-warming contrails could result in inadvertently making climate warming worse.

Researchers have developed a method to model a central theory of quantum gravity in the laboratory. Their goal: to decipher previously unexplained phenomena in the quantum world.

Researchers have developed a method to model a central theory of quantum gravity in the laboratory. Their goal: to decipher previously unexplained phenomena in the quantum world.

Astronomers have used the NASA/ESA James Webb Space Telescope to confirm that supermassive black holes can starve their host galaxies of the fuel they need to form new stars.

CREME is a virtual laboratory that allows scientists to simulate specific decreases in gene activity. It offers a powerful new tool for identifying and understanding important parts of the genome. And it could one day give scientists who don't have access to real laboratories the power to make breakthrough discoveries.

Under the right conditions, liquid crystals condense into astonishing structures, spontaneously generating filaments and flattened discs that can transport material from one place to another, much like complex biological systems. The insight may lead to self-assembling materials, new ways to model cellular activity and more.

New research has solved the mystery of how the Crystal Palace in London, which at the time was the world's largest building, was constructed in only 190 days and completed just in time for the start of the Great Exhibition of 1851. The study has discovered that the Crystal Palace was the first building known to have made use of a standard screw thread -- something that's now taken for granted in modern construction and engineering. Before this, no two nuts and bolts were the same.

The importance of disorder in physics is only matched by the difficulty to study it. For example, the remarkable properties of high-temperature superconductors are greatly affected by variations in the chemical composition of the solid. Techniques that enable measurements of such disorder and its impact on the electronic properties, such as scanning tunnelling microscopy, work only at very low temperatures, and are blind to these physics near the transition temperature. Now, a team of researchers has demonstrated a new way to study disorder in superconductors using terahertz pulses of light.

Researchers have managed to enhance the framework of Brownian reservoir computing by recording and transferring hand gestures to the system which then used skyrmions to detect these individual gestures.

The long-standing mystery of how supermassive black holes grew so huge so quickly could be solved by decaying dark matter

The Moon just brushes the umbral shadow of the Earth during Tuesday night’s partial lunar eclipse.

A shallow partial lunar eclipse is on tap for the night of September 17th/18th. The eclipse is a slight one to be sure, but will be noticeable as the northwestern limb of the Moon just slips past the dark inner umbral shadow of the Earth. The eclipse is just over 8% partial at its maximum, meaning the Full Moon will look a little ‘smushed’ on one side at mid-eclipse.

The path of the Moon through the Earth’s shadow Tuesday night. Credit: F.Espenak/NASA/GSFC. Additional annotations by author. Timing and Visibility

The eclipse will be visible in its entirety around the Atlantic Ocean region, including western Africa and Europe, eastern North America, and all of South America. Eastern Europe and Africa will see the eclipse in progress at moonset towards sunrise, while western North America will see the eclipse already underway at moonrise/sunset. The umbral (partial) phase of the eclipse lasts not quite 63 minutes in duration, and is centered on 2:45 Universal Time (UT) Sept 18th/10:45 PM U.S. East Coast Time (EDT) on the evening of Tuesday, September 17th. The entire penumbral phase of the eclipse starts at 00:41 UT/8:41PM EDT, and runs about 4 hours and six minutes in duration.

A map showing the visibility footprint of Tuesday night’s eclipse. F. Espenak/NASA/GSFC A Complicated Celestial Affair

This is also a complex event, before and after the eclipse. First up, the Moon occults (passes in front of) the planet Saturn for western North America, just over 15 hours prior. Then, the Moon reaches perigee (its closest point to the Earth) just 10 hours after the eclipse. This will likely lead to cries of a ‘Supermoon eclipse’ across ye ‘ole web. Don’t buy into any purported ‘Blood Moon’ hype; the Moon won’t go far enough into the umbral shadow of the Earth to turn red. Finally, the Moon also occults Neptune for North America just over five hours after the eclipse, a challenging event indeed.

The start of the January 31st, 2018 lunar eclipse. Credit: Marion Haligowski.

The September Moon nearest the Equinox (which falls on Sunday, September 22nd, for 2024) is also known as the Harvest Moon. Not only did the illumination from the Full Moon give farmers in the pre-industrial era a few extra hours to get the harvest in, but the angle of the ecliptic is shallow enough in September that the Moon seems to linger from one night to the next, rising only slightly later. I remember growing up picking potatoes in Northern Maine in September, working our way home on foot under the light of the Harvest Moon.

A partial lunar eclipse over London, UK from April 25th, 2013. Credit: Sculptor Lil. Catching This Week’s Partial Lunar Eclipse

Observing and imaging the eclipse is as simple as following the Full Moon Tuesday night at the appointed time. Modern phones zoomed in will produce a clear image, as will a phone camera aimed through the eyepiece of a telescope. You probably won’t notice anything is amiss with the eclipse until about 30 minutes into the penumbral phase. Then, the Moon may seem to have a bit of a tea-colored tint. Towards the partial phase, the ragged umbral shadow of the Earth will just brush the Moon. The curve of the shadow cast by the Earth will become apparent, visual proof that our fair planet is indeed round.

The Partial Lunar Eclipse…As Seen From Space

The spectacle extends out into space as well. Most of the Earthward face of the Moon will experience a partial solar eclipse, except the very northwestern limb, which will see a total solar eclipse. Perhaps one day, human astronauts will stand on the Moon and witness this event.

A time lapse of Tuesday night’s eclipse as seen from the northwest limb of the Moon. Credit: Stellarium. Tales of the Saros

Eclipses (lunar or solar) occur in groups known as saroses, with members spaced 18.04 years (223 synodic months) apart. Several saroses are active at any given time. This is eclipse member 52 of 74 for lunar saros series 118, meaning this cycle is past its prime on its way out. Lunar saros 118 began waaaaay back on March 2nd, 1105. This saros produced its first total lunar eclipse on August 22nd, 1393, and final one on June 22nd, 1880. If you caught the September 7th, 2006 partial lunar eclipse centered over the Indian Ocean region, you caught the last member of this saros cycle. The final member of saros series (a barely perceptible penumbral eclipse) occurs on… (mark your calendars) May 7th, 2403.

This marks the start of the final eclipse season of 2024. This is book-ended by an annular solar eclipse two weeks from now on October 2nd. This event spans Easter Island in the South Pacific, and the southern tip of South America.

The next lunar eclipse is a total lunar eclipse on March 13-14th 2025 favoring the Americas. This ends the current ongoing ‘lunar eclipse drought,’ as the last one occurred on November 8th, 2022.

The partial phase start of a lunar eclipse. Credit: Dave Dickinson

If skies are clear, be sure to give this final lunar eclipse of 2024 a look Tuesday night.

The post Earth’s Shadow Nicks the Moon During This Week’s Partial Lunar Eclipse appeared first on Universe Today.

Up to now, the main source of information about cancellations was the “Campus Deplatforming Database” FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression). Going back to 1998, it now lists 1,507 deplatforming attempts on campus, of which 626 were successful (there have been 110 this year alone). They define these attempts this way:

A deplatforming attempt is a form of intolerance motivated by more than just mere disagreement with, or even protest of, some form of expression. It is an attempt to prevent some form of expression from occurring. Deplatforming attempts include efforts to disinvite speakers from campus speeches or commencement ceremonies, to cancel performances of concerts, plays, or the screenings of movies, or to have controversial artwork removed from public display. An attempt to disrupt a speech or performance that is in progress is also considered a deplatforming attempt, whether it succeeds or fails.

Deplatforming attempts do not include criticisms of some form of expression and protests denouncing them that are not motivated by the goal of deplatforming the controversial expression.

Here are a few examples in a screenshot (click to read); go to the page to read more.

When you click on “view” to the right, you get more details about the incidents, including whether the deplatforming attempt came from the Left, Right, somewhere else, or isn’t known.

For example, I didn’t know that Bari Weiss was the subject of an unsuccessful deplatforming attempt at UNC Chapel Hill this year (the subject was Israel). The deplatforming attempt came from the Left, and among the details FIRE notes that

“About 25 minutes into Weiss’ discussion with Frank Bruni, protesters affiliated with Students for Justice in Palestine began waving Palestine flags and shouting at the stage. A university administrator took to the podium and informed the protesters that, as per university policy, they are not allowed to disrupt the event and must leave. Police escorted the protesters out of the event and Weiss and Bruni resumed and completed their discussion.”

SJP never gives up!  At any rate, the source of the deplatforming, Left or Right, gives an interesting take on who’s trying to cancel people. I once did a survey over a few decades, and, as I recall, early on deplatforming attempts seemed to come almost equally from the Left or Right, while in the last seven or eight years ago the majority of them, by far, came from the Left.  I just looked at the first 20 on the list, and found that 13 deplatformings came from the Left and the other 7 from the Right, but of course there are multiple events from a school at the same time. But I’d bet my hat that in the last five years, a sizable majority of deplatforming events came from the Left, which is a weakness of my side. People on the Left, or at least liberals, are not supposed to suppress speech.

The weakness of the FIRE survey compared to the one below is that the former deals only with deplatforming attempts on campus.

There is now a new “cancellation” database (click the screenshot) that has two advantages: it deals with cancellations that don’t just occur on campus, and these are cancellations that, when successful (most of them have been) result not in the ending of a talk or speech, but in substantial damage to a person’s career, including firing, demotion, and so on. Some details are given.

The new “canceled people” list includes about 210 victims, some of whom you will recognize. All the cancellations appear to have occurred this year, though the offenses may have occurred several years before, as with  They come from several Western countries, though mostly from the U.S.

And, as far as I can see, none of the cancellations were justified. In some cases, the courts or other appeals reversed the cancellations.

First, part of what they say about the reason why the database was constructed and how they define cancellation. There’s more at the “about” page.

Purpose

We are building a database of people who have been “canceled”.

Our purpose is to better understand cancel culture itself as a phenomenon. How does it manifest? How is it evolving? How does it affect societal norms around free speech that enable democracy to function and flourish? By consolidating as many well-sourced data points as possible, we hope to give researchers and others the tools to explore and draw their own conclusions.

What does it mean to be canceled?

There has been some controversy over whether or not cancel culture is real. Obviously, we do think it is real – that is the whole reason this database exists!

Part of the problem when discussing cancel culture’s prevalence and existence is that there has been no clear definition of what it means to be canceled.

For the purposes of this database, we will use the following definition:

1. The canceled person has been targeted for behavior that falls within the boundaries of “reasonable expression” (see more on this below). The “offense” may not be recent, and it may not even be their own action.
2. The canceled person has lost their job or position (this includes forced resignations). Their future professional opportunities have been limited. If they are self-employed, they have suffered financial losses from a boycott or sabotage of their company.
3. The canceled person has faced a coordinated effort to silence them. The effort seeks to render their person or their ideas unfit to discuss.
4. The canceled person has faced a coordinated effort to shame them and destroy their reputation. The effort seeks to damage their self-worth and will likely target their personal or professional relationships.

What is not included?

It is perhaps as important to define what should not be considered a “canceled person”:

1. A person who has been subject to harsh criticism or disagreement. Disagreeing with someone’s speech or behavior, even in a cruel way, is not the same as canceling them.
2. A person who has been subject to online harassment but no “real-world” consequences. We recognize that online harassment and bullying can be horrific. Part of what makes cancelation unique is the attempt to bring the person down by moving outside of the online space. Most commonly, this involves contacting their employer or making them unemployable.
3. A person who has said or done something outside of the window of reasonable expression and therefore is predictably getting their comeuppance. This could include many different things: saying a racial slur with the intention to wound, inflicting a sexual fetish on others, denying the Holocaust, etc. Our society does have legitimate reasons to shun a person, and employers have legitimate reasons to fire an employee.
4. A person who has said or done something illegal. This one seems obvious, but for example, threatening a person online may lead to real-world “cancelation” as well as legal action – rightly so!
5. A person who had the attempt made to cancel them that did not succeed. There are many examples of this and we believe they are troubling and worth paying attention to – they likely do have “chilling effects” on free speech. However, they are an example of the system working properly; the mob went after someone and did not succeed.

Here are a few examples that you can find by using the “find” function on the site. There are links so you can verify the cancellations from sources on the Internet:

It’s interesting to peruse the list, but keep in mind that people’s careers have been wrecked by this stuff. Remember this one?

And this one, also involving the New York Times?

Almost all of these involve freedom of speech, though there are cancellations for stuff like refusals to sign oaths and, in the case of NYT editor James Bennet, for simply running an op-ed that didn’t comport with the ideology of the NYT.  His being forced out wasn’t a violation of the First Amendment, as a paper can fire whom it wants, but it was unjustified and a violation of the canons of good journalism.

Anyway, have a look.