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Measures are in place to prevent athletes from using performance-enhancing drugs at the Olympic Games, but concerns linger over the use of CRISPR to edit genes and even the inhalation of carbon monoxide

Fossils in rocks that are 3.8 billion years old have puzzled biologists as they look nothing like modern cells, but now it seems they may be an ancient precursor life form that was unable to control its structure

Is your phone really tracking your driving habits and selling the data? Maybe more so than you know.

Universe Today has had the incredible opportunity of exploring various scientific fields, including impact craters, planetary surfaces, exoplanets, astrobiology, solar physics, comets, planetary atmospheres, planetary geophysics, cosmochemistry, meteorites, radio astronomy, extremophiles, organic chemistry, black holes, cryovolcanism, planetary protection, dark matter, supernovae, neutron stars, and exomoons, and how these separate but unique all form the basis for helping us better understand our place in the universe.

Here, Universe Today discusses the incredible field of evolutionary biology with Dr. David Baum, who is a Professor of Botany at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, regarding the importance of studying evolutionary biology, his career highlights, what evolutionary biology can teach us about finding life beyond Earth, and what advice he can offer upcoming students who wish to pursue studying evolutionary biology. Therefore, what is the importance of studying evolutionary biology?

Dr. Baum tells Universe Today, “Humans and all living species are the products of evolution, so what could be more important than understanding how evolution works and yielded such amazing organisms and ecosystems! Most of biology is concerned with How questions, such as: How do we fight off infections? How do animals pick mates? How do plants use light energy to convert carbon dioxide and water into plant matter?”

Dr. Baum continues, “Evolutionary biologists ask Why questions. When we do that, the answer can be either historical or general ahistorical. In either case, evolutionary models enrich our understanding of the natural world. Evolution also helps us make predictions, such as the almost inevitable evolution of resistance to antibiotics, pesticides, herbicides, etc.”

The field of evolutionary biology, also called evolution by natural selection, was kickstarted in 1859 by Charles Darwin who famously crafted the notion of evolution by natural selection with his book On the Origin of Species. While groundbreaking, this new insight into the evolution of life was not accepted by the academic community as its own field until the 1930s, and waited another five decades until departments of evolutionary biology were created within the university system, as well.

Since then, the field of evolutionary biology has “evolved” into better understanding speciation, sexual reproduction, ageing, and cooperation, while incorporating fields like computer science and molecular genetics into answering these questions. It involves the study of various types of evolution, including adaptive, convergent, divergent, and coevolution, which attempt to explain how life evolves over time based on its environment, species, and interactions. Additionally, the field of medicine uses evolutionary biology to gain greater insights into evolutionary medicine and evolutionary therapies. Therefore, what are some of the career highlights that Dr. Baum has encountered while studying evolutionary biology?

Dr. Baum tells Universe Today, “Too many to recount, but perhaps the best was proposing a hypothesis for how complex cells with nuclei might have originated in 2014 and then having researchers discover a new group of organisms in 2015 that, when visualized in 2020, supported our model surprisingly well to the point where textbooks on the subject were rewritten!”

As its name implies, the field of evolutionary biology involves studying how biology evolves over time, ranging anywhere from thousands to billions of years. Evolutionary biologists aim to understand the processes that allowed life on the Earth to evolve from the first single-celled organisms that existed early in our planet’s history to the millions of complex species that inhabit our planet today. But despite the Earth being the only known planetary body with life, the questions that drive the field of evolutionary biology span beyond the confines of our small, blue world. In doing so, evolutionary biologists ask if these same processes could have allowed life to emerge on other planetary bodies, including the planets Mars and Venus, and even moons like Europa and Titan.

Today, the planet Mars is a dry, cold, and desolate world, but could life have formed billions of years ago after the Red Planet’s own formation? And while the surface of Venus exhibits extreme temperatures and pressures where life as we know it cannot exist, what about billions of years ago, as well? And what about Venus’ atmosphere, which has exhibited evidence that life as we know it might exist today at high altitudes where the conditions are more Earth-like regarding temperature and pressure? Does life exist in the deep oceans of Europa, and what about the liquid methane and ethane lakes and seas on Titan? Armed with these burning questions, what can evolutionary biology teach us about finding life beyond Earth?

“My lab is studying how evolution can get started on non-living planets,” Dr. Baum tells Universe Today. “We use both chemical experiments and analytical work that draws on principles from physics and evolutionary theory. I believe that this work will eventually clarify whether some kind of evolving biosphere is inevitable and whether it is likely to be composed of individualized entities, like cells, and whether those units are likely to have some analog of genetic systems. It is too early to know, but I suspect that individualization is likely to be universal, but I am less sure about genetics. We do suspect, however, that without genetic-like systems, cellular complexity is likely to be limited.”

As noted above, the field of evolutionary biology encompasses a wide range of expertise from a myriad of scientific disciplines, including computer science, genetics, and medicine. Additionally, it has enabled the creation of new research fields studying the evolution of robotics, engineering, architecture, and economics. For evolutionary robotics, scientists used the theory of natural selection to improve robots using artificial intelligence (AI) where the algorithms are produced to discard the least efficient robotic designs based on a specific task they’ve been assigned to do, which has allowed engineers to design efficient robots that can function in environments not friendly to humans, like nanoscales or space. Therefore, what advice can Dr. Baum give upcoming students who wish to pursue studying evolutionary biology?

Dr. Baum tells Universe Today, “Read lots of wonderful popular books to get a feel for the underlying principles but be critical of your own thinking – the concept of evolution by natural selection seems simple, but it turns out to be much more subtle and complex that folk usually realize.”

As the field of evolutionary biology continues to grow, expand, and “evolve” and help other scientific fields do the same, so will our understanding of how life on the Earth came to be and potentially on other worlds, as well. In the 165 years since its introduction by Charles Darwin, the field of evolutionary biology has grown to encompass far more than what Darwin potentially imagined, so it’s exciting to think where evolutionary biology will be in the next 165 years, as well.

Dr. Baum concludes by telling Universe Today, “Evolutionary biology is central to the study of why organisms are the way they are, but also underlies the most profound questions in astrobiology and physics: Is there a drive to life in the universe? When a world spawns life, is there a drive to complexity and intelligence? And, by extrapolation, are we alone in the Universe?!”

How will evolutionary biology help us understand our place in the universe in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!

As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!

The post Evolutionary Biology: Why study it? What can it teach us about finding life beyond Earth? appeared first on Universe Today.

How will future robotic explorers navigate the difficult subterranean environments of caves and lava tubes on the Moon and Mars? This is what a recent study published in Science Robotics hopes to address as a team of researchers from Stanford University investigated the use of a novel robotic explorer called ReachBot, which could potentially use its unique mechanical design to explore deep caves and lava tubes on the Moon and Mars in the future.

Here, Universe Today discusses this incredible research with Dr. Tony Chen, who is a postdoctoral research fellow in the Harvard Microrobotics Laboratory at Harvard University and lead author of the study, regarding the motivation behind developing ReachBot, significant results, what steps he thinks need to be taken for ReachBot to actually go to the Moon, and how ReachBot could contribute to the upcoming Artemis missions. Therefore, what was the motivation behind ReachBot?

Dr. Chen tells Universe Today, “ReachBot started as a NASA NIAC [NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts] project, where the program is focused on the development of far-reaching and long-term technologies. The main motivation behind ReachBot is to enable robotic exploration of previous inaccessible planetary environments (such as lava tubes) that could provide interesting scientific discoveries and advancements.”

What makes ReachBot unique is its ability to maneuver difficult terrain like uneven rock surfaces by using its elongated appendages with pivoting wrists and grippers guided by a series of algorithms to determine the best course of action. This allows ReachBot to contort its body in a variety of ways while traversing both tight and wide areas within a confined space like a tube or cave. The concept of ReachBot for use in Martian lava tubes was discussed in a 2021 study (Dr. Chen as co-author), followed by prototype testing in a 2022 study (Dr. Chen as lead author), prototype improvements in a 2022 study (Dr. Chen as co-author), and further improvements in a 2022 study (Dr. Chen as co-author).

For this study, the researchers conducted field tests of ReachBot and its capabilities within a lava tube in the Lavic Lake volcanic field in the Mojave Desert as an analog for Martian lava tubes while building off the previous studies. This included investigating how ReachBot could predict how it will both grip and grasp rocky surfaces, gripper design, rocky surface site identification and selection, and how ReachBot performed in a lava tube using its extended appendages that enables the robot’s extreme maneuverability. In the end, the researchers found a wide range of possible extensions for ReachBot, along with favoring convex (outward curved) rocky surfaces that could provide stronger grips, as well.

Image of the ReachBot prototype with its extended boom and grabber within a lava tube of the Lavic Lake volcanic field in the Mojave Desert. (Credit: Stanford University Biomimetics and Dextrous Manipulation Lab) Image of grabber attached to extended boom on ReachBot. (Credit: Stanford University Biomimetics and Dextrous Manipulation Lab) Closeup image of grabber attached to extended boom on ReachBot. (Credit: Stanford University Biomimetics and Dextrous Manipulation Lab) Closeup of the ReachBot grabber without the extended boom. (Credit: Stanford University Biomimetics and Dextrous Manipulation Lab) Closeup of the ReachBot grabber without the extended boom testing its dexterity. (Credit: Stanford University Biomimetics and Dextrous Manipulation Lab)

Dr. Chen tells Universe Today, “The lava tubes in the Mojave Desert were chosen because it was a close analogous cave system to what the lava tubes could potentially be like on Mars. It allowed us to bring a partial ReachBot system into this environment and investigate how the various subsystems perform in a realistic environment.”

This study comes as an international team of researchers led by the University of Trento in Italy successfully constructed a 3D map of a lava tube skylight entrance located in the Mare Tranquillitatis pit (MTP) on the Moon using radar data obtained by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The team determined the lava tube could be tens of meters in length with the skylight itself being almost 100 meters in diameter, noting such lava caves could shield future astronauts from the harsh solar and cosmic radiation that endlessly blasts the lunar surface, thus opening the potential for long-term human exploration of the Moon.

Lava tubes have long been studied for potential future human exploration on both the Moon and Mars, with more than 200 skylights having been observed on the Moon up to this point. Shielding future astronauts from harmful space radiation prevents potentially catastrophic health consequences, including biological effects, radiation sickness, cancer, and death. Being able to send a robotic explorer ahead of time could help astronauts and scientists better determine the most ideal lava caves where astronauts could call home for long-term missions. Therefore, what steps does Dr. Chen believe need to be taken for ReachBot to actually go to the Moon?

“As it currently stands, only a partial prototype of ReachBot has been constructed and tested in a relevant environment,” Dr. Chen tells Universe Today. “There are many other technological developments needed in this project to push it forward. These include but are not limited to the further development of retractable space booms to be more suitable for ReachBot application, full system prototype, and further testing in relevant environments.”

This study also comes as NASA plans to send humans back to the Moon for the first time since 1972 with the agency’s Artemis Program, including landing the first woman and person of color on the lunar surface in history. This program started with the uncrewed Artemis I mission that took the Orion spacecraft, performing a couple flybys of the Moon while testing out the various flight hardware during the mission. This will be followed with the crewed Artemis II mission, which is currently scheduled for a September 2025 launch, will consist of a 10-day mission and four astronauts (three from NASA and one from the Canadian Space Agency) who conducts flybys of the Moon without touching down on the surface.

The first crewed landing on the lunar surface will be the Artemis III mission, which is currently scheduled for September 2026, which will occur near the lunar south pole in hopes of extracting water ice hidden within the deep and dark craters known as the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). While lava caves and tubes are currently not part of the program, how can ReachBot contribute to the upcoming Artemis missions?

“As you noted earlier, ReachBot was originally designed as a concept to explore Martian lava tubes,” Dr. Chen tells Universe Today. “But there are also lava tubes on the Moon that ReachBot could also provide interesting capabilities to explore. These lava tubes could potentially be a habitat for future space explorers, and ReachBot can help both exploring these caves to provide crucial data and forceful manipulation capabilities for potential construction tasks.”

How will ReachBot help improve lava cave exploration on the Moon and Mars in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!

As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!

The post Moon and Mars cave exploration could be easier with ReachBot appeared first on Universe Today.

After a few significant solar flares over the past few days, the chances of auroras (i.e. northern and southern lights) is high enough that it’s probably worth keeping an eye on polar skies for the next couple of nights. At the moment the forecast is for the best chances to be in Asia, but forecasting auroras is far from an exact science, and there could be surprises.

The Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, shines above Bear Lake, Alaska. USAF photo: credit Senior Airman Joshua Strang

To know when to start looking, I keep an eye on data from the ACE satellite.  When a cloud of slow particles from a solar flare’s coronal mass ejection arrives, ACE’s data goes all haywire; you’ll see it as a sudden change in the plots’ appearance, as shown below. ACE satellite sits 950 thousand miles [1.5 million kilometers] from Earth, and is located between Earth and the Sun.  At that vantage point, it gives us (and our other satellites) a little early warning, of up to an hour.

Another good place to look is NOAA’s space weather dashboard. Its first panel, an example of which is shown below, displays three plots; the bottom plot is called “Geomagnetic Activity”. When that plot goes deep orange or red, then there’s probably some serious auroras going on in areas where they aren’t so often seen.

But be warned — the plot shows not what is happening now but what happened in a three-hour interval that is already past. If a geomagnetic storm is long enough, that’s still useful, but be aware that the data is out of date by the time we get to see it. That’s why the ACE satellite may well give you the best heads-up.

Semaglutide-based medicines such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which can help people lose weight, may also reduce tobacco cravings

AI-powered image recognition could give researchers a new tool in hunt for dark matter.

AI-powered image recognition could give researchers a new tool in hunt for dark matter.

AI-powered image recognition could give researchers a new tool in hunt for dark matter.

Inspired by the paper-folding art of origami, engineers have discovered a way to make a single plastic cubed structure transform into more than 1,000 configurations using only three active motors.

Inspired by the paper-folding art of origami, engineers have discovered a way to make a single plastic cubed structure transform into more than 1,000 configurations using only three active motors.

Researchers have developed a self-powered 'bug' that can skim across the water, and they hope it will revolutionize aquatic robotics.

Researchers have developed a self-powered 'bug' that can skim across the water, and they hope it will revolutionize aquatic robotics.

Researchers have developed a means to realize cold-atom integrated nanophotonic circuits.

Researchers have developed a means to realize cold-atom integrated nanophotonic circuits.

One of the hazards astronauts must contend with is muscle loss. The more time they spend in a microgravity environment, the more muscle loss they suffer. Astronauts use exercise to counter the effects of muscle atrophy, but it’s not a perfect solution. Researchers want to develop drugs to help, and understanding the muscle-loss process in space is a critical first step.

In the early days of space travel, researchers weren’t certain what effects microgravity had on astronauts. As the length of space missions grew and scientific monitoring became more prevalent, researchers gained a better understanding of the problem. After the Skylab missions in 1973 and 1974, researchers acquired better data and began to reach some conclusions. It was clear that microgravity contributed to a host of health problems, and muscle atrophy was among them.

Many of the problems astronauts suffer mimic the same problems stemming from aging.

“Space is a really unique environment that accelerates qualities associated with aging and also impairs many healthy processes,” said Ngan Huang, an associate professor at Stanford University. “Astronauts come back with muscle atrophy, or a reduction of muscle function, because the muscle isn’t being actively used in the absence of gravity. As space travel becomes more common and available to civilians, it’s important to understand what happens to our muscle in microgravity.”

Huang is the co-author of new research published in the journal Stem Cell Reports. The study is “Skeletal muscle-on-a-chip in microgravity as a platform for regeneration modeling and drug screening.”

Age-related muscle loss is called sarcopenia. Many factors, including immobility, hormonal changes, and even nutrition, contribute to sarcopenia. Currently, there aren’t any FDA-approved drugs to treat the condition, so exercise, lifestyle, and nutrition are the only ways to treat it. Exercise is critical for astronauts in their struggle against muscle loss. However, space for exercise equipment is limited on the ISS. An effective medication to treat astronaut sarcopenia would be a huge boon.

In this new research, the researchers grew live muscle cells on scaffolds on tiny chips and then sent them for study in microgravity aboard the ISS. The cells grew for seven days under the watchful eyes of astronauts and were exposed to a pair of used to counteract sarcopenia and enhance muscle regeneration. Then, they compared the microgravity muscle cells to ones grown under normal gravity in a lab here on Earth.

This figure from the research gives an outline of the study. (A) shows human muscle cells were seeded onto collagen scaffolds, then placed into a bioreactor with media to become muscles on a chip. (B) shows an overview of the experiment, including travelling to the ISS, being exposed to different drugs, and later extracted and analyzed. Image Credit: Kim et al. 2024.

The results showed that the microgravity muscle cells had impaired muscle fibre formation, differences in gene activity, and differences in their protein profiles.

Muscle tubes, or myotubes, are precursors to muscle fibres. The study results showed reduced myotube length and width, as well as a reduced fusion index. The fusion index basically tells researchers how many muscle cell nuclei are present.

The mitochondria generate most of a cell’s energy, and the results showed that genes affecting their function were compromised. Since muscles have such high metabolic function, any impairment to mitochondria will play out in reduced muscle regeneration. Results also showed that genes associated with forming fat were bolstered. The researchers say the combined effect takes a large toll on muscle regeneration in microgravity.

Protein profiles are like snapshots of what cellular machinery is doing at a particular time. They reveal critical information about the cell’s function and health. In this research, the team examined 200 different proteins.

The results showed that five proteins were produced in greater abundance. Two of those are associated with chronic inflammation, and one is “a biomarker for mitochondrial dysfunction and cellular senescence.” Four of the proteins showed reduced abundance. One of those is “an important player in the maintenance of muscle and myogenesis,” the researchers write in their paper.

This image shows the “muscles-on-a-chip” experiment. Image Credit: Kim et al. 2024.

Overall, the changes the muscle cells underwent shared similarities with changes induced by aging.

“We think our research on muscle chips in microgravity may have broader implications on sarcopenia,” says Huang. “Sarcopenia usually takes decades to develop on Earth, and we think that microgravity may have some ability to accelerate the disease process in orders of days.”

The research also helped understand the role drugs could play. “We next used the muscle-on-a-chip platform to perform proof-of-concept drug screening studies,” the researchers write. They exposed the cells to drugs used to counteract sarcopenia and enhance muscle regeneration.

Geneticists use the terms down-regulation and up-regulation to describe negative and positive effects on gene expression. They found that 286 genes were down-regulated in microgravity. Of those, 200 showed a positive response to drug treatment and similar expression levels to cells in normal gravity.

These Venn diagrams from the research show upregulated genes (left) and downregulated genes (right) in microgravity. The two drugs tested in the research are IGF-1 and 15-PDGH-i. The study showed that 286 genes in muscle tissue are downregulated in microgravity and that 200 of them responded positively to drugs. Image Credit: Kim et al. 2024.

“In conclusion, we show that engineered muscle-on-a-chip bioconstructs exposed to microgravity induced prominent changes to their transcriptome that mimic aspects of impaired myogenesis,” the authors write.

Space research is difficult and resource-intensive, so the researchers intend to continue their work using equipment that mimics microgravity to dig deeper into the issue here on Earth. In 2025, the muscles-on-a-chip are scheduled for another space flight. That experiment will help to identify more drugs that can combat muscle loss.

The benefits of this research extend beyond just muscle loss. “This concept of engineered tissue chip platform in microgravity is a potentially transformative tool that could allow us to study a variety of diseases and do drug screening without animal or human subjects,” says Huang.

The authors conclude in their paper, “This work further highlights the utility of microgravity as a unique environment for drug discovery.”

The post Being in Space Mimics Age-Related Muscle Loss appeared first on Universe Today.

What does it take to have life at another world? Astrobiologists say you need water, warmth, and something for life to eat. If it’s there, it’ll leave signs of itself in the form of organic molecules called amino acids. Now, NASA scientists think that those “signatures” of life—or potential life—could exist just under the icy surfaces of Europa and Enceladus.

If future explorations find those signatures, it’ll make a major step in the search for life elsewhere in the Solar System—and beyond. That’s one reason why robotic missions will someday land on those moons—to look for the signs of life. The next mission to Europa, called Europa Clipper, will orbit that tiny moon, but won’t land. However, it will look for environments suitable for life. So, that’s a start. There’s also a proposed mission called Enceladus Orbilander. It could launch in 2038 and spend a year checking out that moon.

The Search for Life Signs

Scientists strongly suspect there’s a warmish salty ocean beneath the ices of both Europa and Enceladus. Moreover, they are probably heated by tidal stresses. So, those are two of the ingredients for life right there. Given what we know about these worlds, there could be something to feed that life, too.

If life does exist, it could “imprint” its existence in the form of amino acids, nucleic acids, and other organic molecules in the surface ice. Life probably wouldn’t exist right on the surface, mostly due to radiation and the lack of atmosphere at those worlds. That makes the near sub-surface ice a good place to look for evidence of that life. That will require a little digging to find the evidence. How deep? According to Alexander Pavlov of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, it wouldn’t be far.

“Based on our experiments, the ‘safe’ sampling depth for amino acids on Europa is almost 8 inches (around 20 centimeters) at high latitudes of the trailing hemisphere (hemisphere opposite to the direction of Europa’s motion around Jupiter) in the area where the surface hasn’t been disturbed much by meteorite impacts,” Pavlov said. “Subsurface sampling is not required for the detection of amino acids on Enceladus – these molecules will survive radiolysis (breakdown by radiation) at any location on the Enceladus surface less than a tenth of an inch (under a few millimeters) from the surface.”

Testing that Hypothesis

Of course, scientists don’t have any samples of ice on hand to study from either Europa or Enceladus. So, Pavlov’s team simulated the conditions to see if rovers and landers could find evidence of organic materials and life on those worlds. They used amino acids in ice and those from dead microorganisms in radiolysis experiments as possible representatives of biomolecules on icy moons. Radiolysis uses ionizing radiation to bombard molecules and break them apart.

Experimental samples of amino acids (as fingerprints of life) were loaded into a dewar and bombarded by gamma radiation. Credit: Candace Davison.

The team mixed samples of amino acids with ice chilled to about -196 Celsius and bombarded them with gamma rays. Since the oceans might host microscopic life, they also tested the survival of amino acids in dead bacteria in ice. Finally, they tested samples of amino acids in ice mixed with silicate dust. That tested the potential mixing of material from meteorites or the interior with surface ice.

Amino acids are interesting because life can create them. Other non-biological chemistry processes also make them. Scientists studied specific kinds of amino acids that could exist on Europa or Enceladus, particularly those amino acids from the microorganisms they tested (called A. woodii). If other microorganisms similar to that one existed at Europa or Enceladus, they could be a potential sign of life. That’s because they are used by terrestrial life as a component to build proteins. Those make enzymes that speed up or regulate chemical reactions and make structures.

Moving Evidence of Life to the Icy Surface

If such life did exist on either world’s subsurface oceans, the next question is how its “fingerprint” amino acids get to the ice so close to the top layers of ice. There’s evidence of resurfacing at both worlds by ocean water from below. On Europa, there are surface units much younger than others, which indicates that water makes its way to the surface and freezes. On Enceladus, geysers shoot material out to space from below the surface. Amino acids and other compounds from subsurface oceans could be brought to the surface by geyser activity or the slow churning motion of the ice crust.

Europa’s bizarre surface features suggest an actively churning ice shell above a salty liquid water ocean. That liquid could carry amino acids and signs of life to the surface. Credit: JPL

So, it looks like the team’s experiment shows that amino acids could survive on both worlds, under certain conditions, but they also degrade at different rates. That’s important news for future missions, according to Pavlov.

“Slow rates of amino acid destruction in biological samples under Europa and Enceladus-like surface conditions bolster the case for future life-detection measurements by Europa and Enceladus lander missions,” he said. “Our results indicate that the rates of potential organic biomolecules’ degradation in silica-rich regions on both Europa and Enceladus are higher than in pure ice and, thus, possible future missions to Europa and Enceladus should be cautious in sampling silica-rich locations on both icy moons.”

For More Information

NASA: Life signs Could Survive Near Surfaces of Enceladus and Europa

Radiolytic Effects on Biological and Abiotic Amino Acids in Shallow Subsurface Ices on Europa and Enceladus

The post We Might Find Life Just Under the Surface on Europa appeared first on Universe Today.

With coral reefs around the world struggling in the face of warming oceans, should we swap out native species with heat-tolerant ones from elsewhere?

The first generation of stars changed the course of cosmic history. Now, thanks to the James Webb Space Telescope, we have a real chance of spotting them