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To test it, I want you to imagine rolling up a piece of paper into a tight cylinder. Or, if you happen to be near a source of paper, doing it in real life. The analogy works either way.

There's been widespread agreement that a supermassive black hole resides in the Milky Way's Center. But that may not be true. Researchers say that a dense clump of fermionic dark matter can also explain the motions of stars and gas clouds in the region. Crucially, it can also explain the famous Event Horizon Telescope image of the SMBH.

Ripples in space-time from a pair of merging black holes have been recorded in unprecedented detail, enabling physicists to test predictions of general relativity

I have a busy day and can’t brain otherwise, so I’ll put up a video of the entire T.A.M.I. Show, an epochal rock and roll show, with many greats (see below) from 1964.

Why epochal? Well, for one thing, it introduced a white audience (I can’t see any non-whites in it) to black music, and not just soul music, but the blackest of black music: the music of James Brown, also known as the “Godfather of Soul” or “The Hardest Working Man in Show Business” (he was).  He blew away most of the other performers, who were numerous and themselves good musicians.  Chuck Berry also appears twice (see below), and there was also more standard soul music that must have been new to most of the white students, including Marvin Gaye, the Supremes, and Smokey Robinson and the Miracles. I would date this show as the beginning of popularity of black rock and roll, though others might differ.

From Wikipedia:

T.A.M.I. Show is a 1964 concert film released by American International Pictures It includes performances by numerous popular rock and roll and R&B musicians from the United States and England. The concert was held at the Santa Monica Civic Auditorium on October 28 and 29, 1964. Free tickets were distributed to local high school students. The acronym “T.A.M.I.” was used inconsistently in the show’s publicity to mean both “Teenage Awards Music International” and “Teen Age Music International”.

In 2006, T.A.M.I. Show was deemed “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant” by the United States Library of Congress and selected for preservation in the National Film Registry.

. . . T.A.M.I. Show is particularly well known for the performance of James Brown and the Famous Flames, which features his legendary dance moves and explosive energy. In interviews, Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones has claimed that choosing to follow Brown and the Famous Flames (Bobby Byrd, Bobby Bennett, and Lloyd Stallworth) was the worst mistake of their careers, because no matter how well they performed, they could not top him. In a web-published interview, Binder takes credit for persuading the Stones to follow Brown, and serve as the centerpiece for the grand finale in which all the performers dance together onstage.

It used to be nearly impossible to see this (I watched it on a rented CD), but now much of it, including James Brown’s performance, is on YouTube—for free.  Here’s the set list in the entire concert, in order of appearance (from Wikipedia):

Do NOT miss James Brown, who comes on (with his Famous Flames) at one hour, 17 minutes into the show. As far as I can see, this video incorporates most but not all of the performances, and not in the order listed above. You can scroll through it to see your favorites, but James Brown’s appearance was historic for rock and roll, so don’t scroll past that one. Chuck Berry does a good performance at the start and then again at 13:30.

Scientists have pinpointed a group of bacteria that consistently appear in high numbers in healthy people, suggesting that these could one day be targeted through diet or probiotics

People classed as “overweight” according to BMI can be perfectly healthy. But there are better measures of fat, and physicians are finally using them

People classed as “overweight” according to BMI can be perfectly healthy. But there are better measures of fat, and physicians are finally using them

NASA has taken another step towards greater autonomy for planetary exploration rovers. In December, the space agency used AI to generate waypoints for Perseverance's route on two separate days. The rover drove more than 450 meters without human input.

Origami and space exploration might not seem like they have much in common, but the traditional paper-folding technique solves one massive problem for space exploration missions - volume. Satellites and probes that launch in rocket housings are constrained by very restrictive requirements about their physical size, and options for assembling larger structures in orbit are limited to say the least. Anything that can fold up like an origami structure and then expand out to reach a fully functional size is welcome in the space community, and a new paper published in Communications Engineering by Xin Ning of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and his lab describes a novel use case for the idea - electromagnetic waveguides.

A major theme in communist governments is the idea of central planning. Every five years, the central authorities in communist countries lay out their goals for the country over the course of the next five years, which can range from limiting infant mortality to increasing agricultural yield. China, the largest current polity ruled by communists, recently released its fifteenth five-year plan, which lays out its priorities for 2026-2030. This one, accompanied by a press release of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the country’s state-owned giant aerospace corporation, has plenty of ambitious goals for its space sector.

This post is only partly about uranium, but mostly about motivated reasoning – our ability to harness our reasoning power not to arrive at the most likely answer, but to support the answer we want to be true. But let’s chat about uranium for a bit. In the comments to my recent article on a renewable grid, once commenter referred to a blog post on skeptical science and quoted:

“Abbott 2012, linked in the OP, lists about 13 reasons why nuclear will never be capable of generating a significant amount of power. Nuclear supporters have never addressed these issues. To me, the most important issue is there is not enough uranium to generate more than about 5% of all power.”

This is the flip side, I think, to the misinformation about renewable energy I was discussing in that post. Let me way, I don’t think there is an objective right answer here, but my personal view is that the pathway to net zero that emits the least amount of carbon includes nuclear energy, a view that is in line with the IPCC. There is, however, still a lot of anti-nuclear bias out there, just as their is pro-fossil fuel bias, and pro-renewable bias, and every kind of bias. If you want to make a case for any particular source of power, there are enough variables to play with that you can make a case. However, factual misstatements are different – we should at least be arguing from the same set of verified facts. So let’s address the question – how much uranium is there.

There is no objective answer to this question. Why not? Because it depends on your definition. Most estimates of how much uranium there is in the world, in the context of how much is available for nuclear power, do not include every atom of uranium. They generally take several approaches – how much is in current usable stockpiles, how much is being produced by active mines, and how much is “commercially” available. That last category depend on where you draw the line, which depends on the current price of uranium as well as the value of the energy it produces. If, for example, we decided to price the cost of emitting carbon from energy production, the value of uranium would suddenly increase. It also depends on the technology to extract and refine uranium. The value of uranium is also determined by the efficiency of reactors.

Right now about 9% of the world’s electricity comes from nuclear, and about 19% of energy in the US. At the current rate of energy production, current producing uranium mines and known resources would last for about 90 years. This is better than most mineral needed to build renewable infrastructure. Right there the “5%” figure quoted above is demonstrably wrong, we are already greater than 5%. Let’s say we doubled the amount of energy produced by nuclear power, and over that same time period there was a 50% increase in energy demand. Current supplies would then last for 45 years, and nuclear would be about 12% of world energy production. Forty-five years would be just fine – that would give us the time to further develop solar, wind, battery, geothermal, and pumped hydro technology. It is conceivable that we could have an all renewable grid by then. It is even possible we might have fusion by then.

But that also assume a couple of things – no new uranium mine discovery, and no significant increases in efficiency. Neither of these things are likely to be true. There are vast known commercially-viable reserves of uranium waiting to be developed. Improved geological techniques are also finding more reserves. Further, newer nuclear designs use uranium more efficiently – there is more burned fuel and less spent nuclear fuel. In fact newer designs can potentially burn the spent fuel from older reactors, further extending the uranium supply. We can also reprocess spent nuclear fuel to make more usable fuel. The figures above also do not count national reserves of uranium, because these figures are not public. Military grade uranium has been and can be repurposed for energy production as well.

Further still – if the acceptable price of uranium increases because of the value of uranium and the cost of energy, and/or the cost of extracting uranium from various sources goes down, then new reserves of uranium become available. For example, there is about 4.5 billion tonnes of uranium in seawater, which is about 1,000 times known terrestrial sources. That’s enough uranium for current use for 90,000 years. Let’s say only 10% of that uranium can be commercially extracted, and our demand increases by a factor of 10 – the supply would still last for 900 years. That is likely longer than fission technology will be needed.

Even putting uranium from seawater aside, known and likely terrestrial sources, combined with advancing nuclear technology, means we likely have enough uranium to burn at double the current rate for 100-200 years, conservatively. In other words – the supply of uranium is simply not a significant limiting factor for nuclear power. So why is this still an anti-nuclear talking point?

That is where we get back to motivated reasoning. Even if we are looking at the same set of facts, they can be perceived as positive or negative depending on your bias. You can say – nuclear only supplies 9% of the world’s power, or that nuclear provides a whopping 9% of world power. Solar has only increased in efficiency by about 10% over the last 30 years (from about 12 to about 22 %), or you can say that the efficiency of solar has almost doubled over this time, while costs have plummeted. You can focus on all the negative tradeoff, or all of the positive benefits of any technology. The same problem can be either a minor nuisance or a deal-killer. You can focus on whatever slice of the evidence is in line with your bias. And of course you can accept as fact things that appear to support your narrative, while questioning those that do not.

We all do this, pretty much all the time. It takes a conscious effort to minimize such motivated reasoning. We have to step back, deliberately try to not care what the outcome is, and just try to be as fair and accurate as possible. We have to ask – but is this really true? What would a neutral person say? What would someone hostile to this position say? It’s a lot of mental work, but it’s good mental hygiene and a good habit to get into.

 

 

The post Uranium and Motivated Reasoning first appeared on NeuroLogica Blog.

A type of cognitive training that tests people's quick recall seems to reduce the risk of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease

Paul Erdős was one of the most prolific mathematicians to ever live, known for showing up at the door of others in the field and declaring they should host and feed him while they do maths together. His radical life should be immortalised by Hollywood in a comedy biopic, says columnist Jacob Aron

One type of friction can waste energy even when two perfectly smooth surfaces move against each other, but researchers are getting a handle on how to attenuate or stop it completely

This could lead to less FDA oversight just when more is needed

The post The peptide craze sweeping America has a fan in RFK Jr first appeared on Science-Based Medicine.

Baker’s yeast isn’t just useful in the kitchen — it may also be built for space. Researchers found that yeast cells can survive intense shock waves and toxic chemicals similar to those on Mars. The cells protect themselves by forming special stress-response structures that help them endure extreme conditions. This resilience could make yeast a powerful model for astrobiology and future space missions.

The first people to reach the Kitsissut Islands off the north-west coast of Greenland were Indigenous peoples, who crossed over 50 kilometres of treacherous water

The problem that large extra dimensions just might solve is called the hierarchy problem, and it’s one of the nastiest outstanding problems in modern physics.

A new study co-led by the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at The University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) reveals that plasma waves traveling along Earth’s magnetic field lines act like an invisible power source, fueling the stunning auroral displays we see in the sky.

Scientists at the University of Warwick have cracked a long-standing problem in air pollution science: how to predict the movement of irregularly shaped nanoparticles as they drift through the air we breathe. These tiny particles — from soot and microplastics to viruses — are linked to serious health risks, yet most models still treat them as perfect spheres for simplicity. By reworking a century-old formula, researchers have created the first simple, accurate way to predict how particles of almost any shape behave.